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Background
Medical resource management can be improved by assessing the likelihood of prolonged length of stay (LOS) for head and neck cancer surgery patients. The objective of this study was to develop predictive models that could be used to determine whether a patient's LOS after cancer surgery falls within the normal range of the cohort.
Methods
We conducted a retrospective analysis of a dataset consisting of 300 consecutive patients who underwent head and neck cancer surgery between 2017 and 2022 at a single university medical center. Prolonged LOS was defined as LOS exceeding the 75th percentile of the cohort. Feature importance analysis was performed to evaluate the most important predictors for prolonged LOS. We then constructed 7 machine learning and deep learning algorithms for the prediction modeling of prolonged LOS.
Results
The algorithms reached accuracy values of 75.40 (radial basis function neural network) to 97.92 (Random Trees) for the training set and 64.90 (multilayer perceptron neural network) to 84.14 (Random Trees) for the testing set. The leading parameters predicting prolonged LOS were operation time, ischemia time, the graft used, the ASA score, the intensive care stay, and the pathological stages. The results revealed that patients who had a higher number of harvested lymph nodes (LN) had a lower probability of recurrence but also a greater LOS. However, patients with prolonged LOS were also at greater risk of recurrence, particularly when fewer (LN) were extracted. Further, LOS was more strongly correlated with the overall number of extracted lymph nodes than with the number of positive lymph nodes or the ratio of positive to overall extracted lymph nodes, indicating that particularly unnecessary lymph node extraction might be associated with prolonged LOS.
Conclusions
The results emphasize the need for a closer follow-up of patients who experience prolonged LOS. Prospective trials are warranted to validate the present results.
Background: Oro-antral communication (OAC) is a common complication following the extraction of upper molar teeth. The Archer and the Root Sinus (RS) systems can be used to classify impacted teeth in panoramic radiographs. The Archer classes B-D and the Root Sinus classes III, IV have been associated with an increased risk of OAC following tooth extraction in the upper molar region. In our previous study, we found that panoramic radiographs are not reliable for predicting OAC. This study aimed to (1) determine the feasibility of automating the classification (Archer/RS classes) of impacted teeth from panoramic radiographs, (2) determine the distribution of OAC stratified by classification system classes for the purposes of decision tree construction, and (3) determine the feasibility of automating the prediction of OAC utilizing the mentioned classification systems. Methods: We utilized multiple supervised pre-trained machine learning models (VGG16, ResNet50, Inceptionv3, EfficientNet, MobileNetV2), one custom-made convolutional neural network (CNN) model, and a Bag of Visual Words (BoVW) technique to evaluate the performance to predict the clinical classification systems RS and Archer from panoramic radiographs (Aim 1). We then used Chi-square Automatic Interaction Detectors (CHAID) to determine the distribution of OAC stratified by the Archer/RS classes to introduce a decision tree for simple use in clinics (Aim 2). Lastly, we tested the ability of a multilayer perceptron artificial neural network (MLP) and a radial basis function neural network (RBNN) to predict OAC based on the high-risk classes RS III, IV, and Archer B-D (Aim 3). Results: We achieved accuracies of up to 0.771 for EfficientNet and MobileNetV2 when examining the Archer classification. For the AUC, we obtained values of up to 0.902 for our custom-made CNN. In comparison, the detection of the RS classification achieved accuracies of up to 0.792 for the BoVW and an AUC of up to 0.716 for our custom-made CNN. Overall, the Archer classification was detected more reliably than the RS classification when considering all algorithms. CHAID predicted 77.4% correctness for the Archer classification and 81.4% for the RS classification. MLP (AUC: 0.590) and RBNN (AUC: 0.590) for the Archer classification as well as MLP 0.638) and RBNN (0.630) for the RS classification did not show sufficient predictive capability for OAC. Conclusions: The results reveal that impacted teeth can be classified using panoramic radiographs (best AUC: 0.902), and the classification systems can be stratified according to their relationship to OAC (81.4% correct for RS classification). However, the Archer and RS classes did not achieve satisfactory AUCs for predicting OAC (best AUC: 0.638). Additional research is needed to validate the results externally and to develop a reliable risk stratification tool based on the present findings.
Associations between periodontitis and COPD: An artificial intelligence-based analysis of NHANES III
(2022)
A number of cross-sectional epidemiological studies suggest that poor oral health is associated with respiratory diseases. However, the number of cases within the studies was limited, and the studies had different measurement conditions. By analyzing data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III (NHANES III), this study aimed to investigate possible associations between chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and periodontitis in the general population. COPD was diagnosed in cases where FEV (1)/FVC ratio was below 70% (non-COPD versus COPD; binary classification task). We used unsupervised learning utilizing k-means clustering to identify clusters in the data. COPD classes were predicted with logistic regression, a random forest classifier, a stochastic gradient descent (SGD) classifier, k-nearest neighbors, a decision tree classifier, Gaussian naive Bayes (GaussianNB), support vector machines (SVM), a custom-made convolutional neural network (CNN), a multilayer perceptron artificial neural network (MLP), and a radial basis function neural network (RBNN) in Python. We calculated the accuracy of the prediction and the area under the curve (AUC). The most important predictors were determined using feature importance analysis. Results: Overall, 15,868 participants and 19 feature variables were included. Based on k-means clustering, the data were separated into two clusters that identified two risk characteristic groups of patients. The algorithms reached AUCs between 0.608 (DTC) and 0.953% (CNN) for the classification of COPD classes. Feature importance analysis of deep learning algorithms indicated that age and mean attachment loss were the most important features in predicting COPD. Conclusions: Data analysis of a large population showed that machine learning and deep learning algorithms could predict COPD cases based on demographics and oral health feature variables. This study indicates that periodontitis might be an important predictor of COPD. Further prospective studies examining the association between periodontitis and COPD are warranted to validate the present results.
Background Current research in breast cancer focuses on individualization of local and systemic therapies with adequate escalation or de-escalation strategies. As a result, about two-thirds of breast cancer patients can be cured, but up to one-third eventually develop metastatic disease, which is considered incurable with currently available treatment options. This underscores the importance to develop a metastatic recurrence score to escalate or de-escalate treatment strategies. Patients and methods Data from 10,499 patients were available from 17 clinical cancer registries (BRENDA-project. In total, 8566 were used to develop the BRENDA-Index. This index was calculated from the regression coefficients of a Cox regression model for metastasis-free survival (MFS). Based on this index, patients were categorized into very high, high, intermediate, low, and very low risk groups forming the BRENDA-Score. Bootstrapping was used for internal validation and an independent dataset of 1883 patients for external validation. The predictive accuracy was checked by Harrell's c-index. In addition, the BRENDA-Score was analyzed as a marker for overall survival (OS) and compared to the Nottingham prognostic score (NPS). Results: Intrinsic subtypes, tumour size, grading, and nodal status were identified as statistically significant prognostic factors in the multivariate analysis. The five prognostic groups of the BRENDA-Score showed highly significant (p < 0.001) differences regarding MFS:low risk: hazard ratio (HR) = 2.4, 95%CI (1.7–3.3); intermediate risk: HR = 5.0, 95%CI.(3.6–6.9); high risk: HR = 10.3, 95%CI (7.4–14.3) and very high risk: HR = 18.1, 95%CI (13.2–24.9). The external validation showed congruent results. A multivariate Cox regression model for OS with BRENDA-Score and NPS as covariates showed that of these two scores only the BRENDA-Score is significant (BRENDA-Score p < 0.001; NPS p = 0.447). Therefore, the BRENDA-Score is also a good prognostic marker for OS. Conclusion: The BRENDA-Score is an internally and externally validated robust predictive tool for metastatic recurrence in breast cancer patients. It is based on routine parameters easily accessible in daily clinical care. In addition, the BRENDA-Score is a good prognostic marker for overall survival. Highlights: The BRENDA-Score is a highly significant predictive tool for metastatic recurrence of breast cancer patients. The BRENDA-Score is stable for at least the first five years after primary diagnosis, i.e., the sensitivities and specificities of this predicting system is rather similar to the NPI with AUCs between 0.76 and 0.81 the BRENDA-Score is a good prognostic marker for overall survival.