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A Knowledge-based Hybrid Statistical Classifier for Reconstructing the Chronology of the Quran
(2011)
Computationally categorizing Quran’s chapters has been mainly confined to the determination of chapters’ revelation places. However this broad classification is not sufficient to effectively and thoroughly understand and interpret the Quran. The chronology of revelation would not only improve comprehending the philosophy of Islam, but also the easiness of implementing and memorizing its laws and recommendations. This paper attempts estimating possible chapters’ dates of revelation through their lexical frequency profiles. A hybrid statistical classifier consisting of stemming and clustering algorithms for comparing lexical frequency profiles of chapters, and deriving dates of revelation has been developed. The classifier is trained using some chapters with known dates of revelation. Then it classifies chapters with uncertain dates of revelation by computing their proximity to the training ones. The results reported here indicate that the proposed methodology yields usable results in estimating dates of revelation of the Quran’s chapters based on their lexical contents.
This paper discusses the categorization of Quranic chapters by major phases of Prophet Mohammad’s messengership using machine learning algorithms. First, the chapters were categorized by places of revelation using Support Vector Machine and naïve Bayesian classifiers separately, and their results were compared to each other, as well as to the existing traditional Islamic and western orientalists classifications. The chapters were categorized into Meccan (revealed in Mecca) and Medinan (revealed in Medina). After that, chapters of each category were clustered using a kind of fuzzy-single linkage clustering approach, in order to correspond to the major phases of Prophet Mohammad’s life. The major phases of the Prophet’s life were manually derived from the Quranic text, as well as from the secondary Islamic literature e.g hadiths, exegesis. Previous studies on computing the places of revelation of Quranic chapters relied heavily on features extracted from existing background knowledge of the chapters. For instance, it is known that Meccan chapters contain mostly verses about faith and related problems, while Medinan ones encompass verses dealing with social issues, battles…etc. These features are by themselves insufficient as a basis for assigning the chapters to their respective places of revelation. In fact, there are exceptions, since some chapters do contain both Meccan and Medinan features. In this study, features of each category were automatically created from very few chapters, whose places of revelation have been determined through identification of historical facts and events such as battles, migration to Medina…etc. Chapters having unanimously agreed places of revelation were used as the initial training set, while the remaining chapters formed the testing set. The classification process was made recursive by regularly augmenting the training set with correctly classified chapters, in order to classify the whole testing set. Each chapter was preprocessed by removing unimportant words, stemming, and representation with vector space model. The result of this study shows that, the two classifiers have produced useable results, with an outperformance of the support vector machine classifier. This study indicates that, the proposed methodology yields encouraging results for arranging Quranic chapters by phases of Prophet Mohammad’s messengership.
In the course of the growth of the Internet and due to increasing availability of data, over the last two decades, the field of network science has established itself as an own area of research. With quantitative scientists from computer science, mathematics, and physics working on datasets from biology, economics, sociology, political sciences, and many others, network science serves as a paradigm for interdisciplinary research.
One of the major goals in network science is to unravel the relationship between topological graph structure and a network’s function. As evidence suggests, systems from the same fields, i.e. with similar function, tend to exhibit similar structure. However, it is still vague whether a similar graph structure automatically implies likewise function. This dissertation aims at helping to bridge this gap, while particularly focusing on the role of triadic structures.
After a general introduction to the main concepts of network science, existing work devoted to the relevance of triadic substructures is reviewed. A major challenge in modeling triadic structure is the fact that not all three-node subgraphs can be specified independently
of each other, as pairs of nodes may participate in multiple of those triadic subgraphs.
In order to overcome this obstacle, we suggest a novel class of generative network models based on so called Steiner triple systems. The latter are partitions of a graph’s vertices into pair-disjoint triples (Steiner triples). Thus, the configurations on Steiner triples can be specified independently of each other without overdetermining the network’s link
structure.
Subsequently, we investigate the most basic realization of this new class of models. We call it the triadic random graph model (TRGM). The TRGM is parametrized by a probability distribution over all possible triadic subgraph patterns. In order to generate a network instantiation of the model, for all Steiner triples in the system, a pattern is drawn from the distribution and adjusted randomly on the Steiner triple. We calculate the degree distribution of the TRGM analytically and find it to be similar to a Poissonian distribution. Furthermore, it is shown that TRGMs possess non-trivial triadic structure. We discover inevitable correlations in the abundance of certain triadic subgraph
patterns which should be taken into account when attributing functional relevance to particular motifs – patterns which occur significantly more frequently than expected at random. Beyond, the strong impact of the probability distributions on the Steiner triples on the occurrence of triadic subgraphs over the whole network is demonstrated. This interdependence allows us to design ensembles of networks with predefined triadic substructure. Hence, TRGMs help to overcome the lack of generative models needed for assessing the relevance of triadic structure.
We further investigate whether motifs occur homogeneously or heterogeneously distributed over a graph. Therefore, we study triadic subgraph structures in each node’s neighborhood individually. In order to quantitatively measure structure from an individual node’s perspective, we introduce an algorithm for node-specific pattern mining for both directed unsigned, and undirected signed networks. Analyzing real-world datasets, we find that there are networks in which motifs are distributed highly heterogeneously, bound to the proximity of only very few nodes. Moreover, we observe indication for the potential sensitivity of biological systems to a targeted removal of these critical vertices. In addition, we study whole graphs with respect to the homogeneity and homophily of their node-specific triadic structure. The former describes the similarity of subgraph distributions in the neighborhoods of individual vertices. The latter quantifies whether connected vertices
are structurally more similar than non-connected ones. We discover these features to be characteristic for the networks’ origins. Moreover, clustering the vertices of graphs regarding their triadic structure, we investigate structural groups in the neural network of C. elegans, the international airport-connection network, and the global network of diplomatic sentiments between countries. For the latter we find evidence for the instability of triangles considered socially unbalanced according to sociological theories.
Finally, we utilize our TRGM to explore ensembles of networks with similar triadic substructure in terms of the evolution of dynamical processes acting on their nodes. Focusing on oscillators, coupled along the graphs’ edges, we observe that certain triad motifs impose a clear signature on the systems’ dynamics, even when embedded in a larger
network structure.
Context-specific Consistencies in Information Extraction: Rule-based and Probabilistic Approaches
(2015)
Large amounts of communication, documentation as well as knowledge and information are stored in textual documents. Most often, these texts like webpages, books, tweets or reports are only available in an unstructured representation since they are created and interpreted by humans. In order to take advantage of this huge amount of concealed information and to include it in analytic processes, it needs to be transformed into a structured representation. Information extraction considers exactly this task. It tries to identify well-defined entities and relations in unstructured data and especially in textual documents.
Interesting entities are often consistently structured within a certain context, especially in semi-structured texts. However, their actual composition varies and is possibly inconsistent among different contexts. Information extraction models stay behind their potential and return inferior results if they do not consider these consistencies during processing. This work presents a selection of practical and novel approaches for exploiting these context-specific consistencies in information extraction tasks. The approaches direct their attention not only to one technique, but are based on handcrafted rules as well as probabilistic models.
A new rule-based system called UIMA Ruta has been developed in order to provide optimal conditions for rule engineers. This system consists of a compact rule language with a high expressiveness and strong development support. Both elements facilitate rapid development of information extraction applications and improve the general engineering experience, which reduces the necessary efforts and costs when specifying rules.
The advantages and applicability of UIMA Ruta for exploiting context-specific consistencies are illustrated in three case studies. They utilize different engineering approaches for including the consistencies in the information extraction task. Either the recall is increased by finding additional entities with similar composition, or the precision is improved by filtering inconsistent entities. Furthermore, another case study highlights how transformation-based approaches are able to correct preliminary entities using the knowledge about the occurring consistencies.
The approaches of this work based on machine learning rely on Conditional Random Fields, popular probabilistic graphical models for sequence labeling. They take advantage of a consistency model, which is automatically induced during processing the document. The approach based on stacked graphical models utilizes the learnt descriptions as feature functions that have a static meaning for the model, but change their actual function for each document. The other two models extend the graph structure with additional factors dependent on the learnt model of consistency. They include feature functions for consistent and inconsistent entities as well as for additional positions that fulfill the consistencies.
The presented approaches are evaluated in three real-world domains: segmentation of scientific references, template extraction in curricula vitae, and identification and categorization of sections in clinical discharge letters. They are able to achieve remarkable results and provide an error reduction of up to 30% compared to usually applied techniques.
This dissertation contributes to the empirical analysis of economic development. The continuing poverty in many Sub-Saharan-African countries as well as the declining trend in growth in the advanced economies that was initiated around the turn of the millennium raises a number of new questions which have received little attention in recent empirical studies. Is culture a decisive factor for economic development? Do larger financial markets trigger positive stimuli with regard to incomes, or is the recent increase in their size in advanced economies detrimental to economic growth? What causes secular stagnation, i.e. the reduction in growth rates of the advanced economies observable over the past 20 years? What is the role of inequality in the growth process, and how do governmental attempts to equalize the income distribution affect economic development? And finally: Is the process of democratization accompanied by an increase in living standards? These are the central questions of this doctoral thesis.
To facilitate the empirical analysis of the determinants of economic growth, this dissertation introduces a new method to compute classifications in the field of social sciences. The approach is based on mathematical algorithms of machine learning and pattern recognition. Whereas the construction of indices typically relies on arbitrary assumptions regarding the aggregation strategy of the underlying attributes, utilization of Support Vector Machines transfers the question of how to aggregate the individual components into a non-linear optimization problem.
Following a brief overview of the theoretical models of economic growth provided in the first chapter, the second chapter illustrates the importance of culture in explaining the differences in incomes across the globe. In particular, if inhabitants have a lower average degree of risk-aversion, the implementation of new technology proceeds much faster compared with countries with a lower tendency towards risk. However, this effect depends on the legal and political framework of the countries, their average level of education, and their stage of development.
The initial wealth of individuals is often not sufficient to cover the cost of investments in both education and new technologies. By providing loans, a developed financial sector may help to overcome this shortage. However, the investigations in the third chapter show that this mechanism is dependent on the development levels of the economies. In poor countries, growth of the financial sector leads to better education and higher investment levels. This effect diminishes along the development process, as intermediary activity is increasingly replaced by speculative transactions. Particularly in times of low technological innovation, an increasing financial sector has a negative impact on economic development. In fact, the world economy is currently in a phase of this kind. Since the turn of the millennium, growth rates in the advanced economies have experienced a multi-national decline, leading to an intense debate about "secular stagnation" initiated at the beginning of 2015. The fourth chapter deals with this phenomenon and shows that the growth potentials of new technologies have been gradually declining since the beginning of the 2000s.
If incomes are unequally distributed, some individuals can invest less in education and technological innovations, which is why the fifth chapter identifies an overall negative effect of inequality on growth. This influence, however, depends on the development level of countries. While the negative effect is strongly pronounced in poor economies with a low degree of equality of opportunity, this influence disappears during the development process. Accordingly, redistributive polices of governments exert a growth-promoting effect in developing countries, while in advanced economies, the fostering of equal opportunities is much more decisive.
The sixth chapter analyzes the growth effect of the political environment and shows that the ambiguity of earlier studies is mainly due to unsophisticated measurement of the degree of democratization. To solve this problem, the chapter introduces a new method based on mathematical algorithms of machine learning and pattern recognition. While the approach can be used for various classification problems in the field of social sciences, in this dissertation it is applied for the problem of democracy measurement. Based on different country examples, the chapter shows that the resulting SVMDI is superior to other indices in modeling the level of democracy. The subsequent empirical analysis emphasizes a significantly positive growth effect of democracy measured via SVMDI.
Active galactic nuclei (AGN) are among the brightest and most frequent sources on the extragalactic X-ray and gamma-ray sky. Their central supermassive blackhole generates an enormous luminostiy through accretion of the surrounding gas. A few AGN harbor highly collimated, powerful jets in which are observed across the entire electromagnetic spectrum. If their jet axis is seen in a small angle to our line-of-sight (these objects are then called blazars) jet emission can outshine any other emission component from the system. Synchrotron emission from electrons and positrons clearly prove the existence of a relativistic leptonic component in the jet plasma. But until today, it is still an open question whether heavier particles, especially protons, are accelerated as well. If this is the case, AGN would be prime candidates for extragalactic PeV neutrino sources that are observed on Earth. Characteristic signatures for protons can be hidden in the variable high-energy emission of these objects. In this thesis I investigated the broadband emission, particularly the high-energy X-ray and gamma-ray emission of jetted AGN to address open questions regarding the particle acceleration and particle content of AGN jets, or the evolutionary state of the AGN itself. For this purpose I analyzed various multiwavelength observations from optical to gamma-rays over a period of time using a combination of state-of-the-art spectroscopy and timing analysis. By nature, AGN are highly variable. Time-resolved spectral analysis provided a new dynamic view of these sources which helped to determine distinct emission processes that are difficult to disentangle from spectral or timing methods alone.
Firstly, this thesis tackles the problem of source classification in order to facilitate the search for interesting sources in large data archives and characterize new transient sources. I use spectral and timing analysis methods and supervised machine learning algorithms to design an automated source classification pipeline. The test and training sample were based on the third XMM-Newton point source catalog (3XMM-DR6). The set of input features for the machine learning algorithm was derived from an automated spectral modeling of all sources in the 3XMM-DR6, summing up to 137200 individual detections. The spectral features were complemented by results of a basic timing analysis as well as multiwavelength information provided by catalog cross-matches. The training of the algorithm and application to a test sample showed that the definition of the training sample was crucial: Despite oversampling minority source types with synthetic data to balance out the training sample, the algorithm preferably predicted majority source types for unclassified objects. In general, the training process showed that the combination of spectral, timing and multiwavelength features performed best with the lowest misclassification rate of \\sim2.4\\%.
The methods of time-resolved spectroscopy was then used in two studies to investigate the properties of two individual AGN, Mrk 421 and PKS 2004-447, in detail. Both objects belong to the class of gamma-ray emitting AGN. A very elusive sub-class are gamma-ray emitting Narrow Line Seyfert 1 (gNLS1) galaxies. These sources have been discovered as gamma-ray sources only recently in 2010 and a connection to young radio galaxies especially compact steep spectrum (CSS) radio sources has been proposed. The only gNLS1 on the Southern Hemisphere so far is PKS2004-447 which lies at the lower end of the luminosity distribution of gNLS1. The source is part of the TANAMI VLBI program and is regularly monitored at radio frequencies. In this thesis, I presented and analyzed data from a dedicated multiwavelength campaign of PKS 2004-447 which I and my collaborators performed during 2012 and which was complemented by individual observations between 2013 and 2016. I focussed on the detailed analysis of the X-ray emission and a first analysis of its broadband spectrum from radio to gamma-rays. Thanks to the dynamic SED I could show that earlier studies misinterpreted the optical spectrum of the source which had led to an underestimation of the high-energy emission and had ignited a discussion on the source class. I show that the overall spectral properties are consistent with dominating jet emission comprised of synchrotron radiation and inverse Compton scattering from accelerated leptons. The broadband emission is very similar to typical examples of a certain type of blazars (flat-spectrum radio quasars) and does not present any unusual properties in comparison. Interestingly, the VLBI data showed a compact jet structure and a steep radio spectrum consistent with a compact steep spectrum source. This classified PKS 2004-447 as a young radio galaxy, in which the jet is still developing.
The investigation of Mrk 421 introduced the blazar monitoring program which I and collaborator have started in 2014. By observing a blazar simultaneously from optical, X-ray and gamma-ray bands during a VHE outbursts, the program aims at providing extraordinary data sets to allow for the generation of a series of dynamical SEDs of high spectral and temporal resolution. The program makes use of the dense VHE monitoring by the FACT telescope. So far, there are three sources in our sample that we have been monitoring since 2014. I presented the data and the first analysis of one of the brightest and most variable blazar, Mrk 421, which had a moderate outbreak in 2015 and triggered our program for the first time. With spectral timing analysis, I confirmed a tight correlation between the X-ray and TeV energy bands, which indicated that these jet emission components are causally connected. I discovered that the variations of the optical band were both correlated and anti-correlated with the high-energy emission, which suggested an independent emission component. Furthermore, the dynamic SEDs showed two different flaring behaviors, which differed in the presence or lack of a peak shift of the low-energy emission hump. These results further supported the hypothesis that more than one emission region contributed to the broadband emission of Mrk 421 during the observations.
Overall,the studies presented in this thesis demonstrated that time-resolved spectroscopy is a powerful tool to classify both source types and emission processes of astronomical objects, especially relativistic jets in AGN, and thus provide a deeper understanding and new insights of their physics and properties.
Advanced Analytics in Operations Management and Information Systems: Methods and Applications
(2019)
The digital transformation of business and society presents enormous potentials for companies across all sectors. Fueled by massive advances in data generation, computing power, and connectivity, modern organizations have access to gigantic amounts of data. Companies seek to establish data-driven decision cultures to leverage competitive advantages in terms of efficiency and effectiveness. While most companies focus on descriptive tools such as reporting, dashboards, and advanced visualization, only a small fraction already leverages advanced analytics (i.e., predictive and prescriptive analytics) to foster data-driven decision-making today. Therefore, this thesis set out to investigate potential opportunities to leverage prescriptive analytics in four different independent parts.
As predictive models are an essential prerequisite for prescriptive analytics, the first two parts of this work focus on predictive analytics. Building on state-of-the-art machine learning techniques, we showcase the development of a predictive model in the context of capacity planning and staffing at an IT consulting company. Subsequently, we focus on predictive analytics applications in the manufacturing sector. More specifically, we present a data science toolbox providing guidelines and best practices for modeling, feature engineering, and model interpretation to manufacturing decision-makers. We showcase the application of this toolbox on a large data-set from a German manufacturing company.
Merely using the improved forecasts provided by powerful predictive models enables decision-makers to generate additional business value in some situations. However, many complex tasks require elaborate operational planning procedures. Here, transforming additional information into valuable actions requires new planning algorithms. Therefore, the latter two parts of this thesis focus on prescriptive analytics. To this end, we analyze how prescriptive analytics can be utilized to determine policies for an optimal searcher path problem based on predictive models. While rapid advances in artificial intelligence research boost the predictive power of machine learning models, a model uncertainty remains in most settings. The last part of this work proposes a prescriptive approach that accounts for the fact that predictions are imperfect and that the arising uncertainty needs to be considered. More specifically, it presents a data-driven approach to sales-force scheduling. Based on a large data set, a model to predictive the benefit of additional sales effort is trained. Subsequently, the predictions, as well as the prediction quality, are embedded into the underlying team orienteering problem to determine optimized schedules.
It is the aim of this thesis to present a visual body weight estimation, which is suitable for medical applications. A typical scenario where the estimation of the body weight is essential, is the emergency treatment of stroke patients: In case of an ischemic stroke, the patient has to receive a body weight adapted drug, to solve a blood clot in a vessel. The accuracy of the estimated weight influences the outcome of the therapy directly. However, the treatment has to start as early as possible after the arrival at a trauma room, to provide sufficient treatment. Weighing a patient takes time, and the patient has to be moved. Furthermore, patients are often not able to communicate a value for their body weight due to their stroke symptoms. Therefore, it is state of the art that physicians guess the body weight. A patient receiving a too low dose has an increased risk that the blood clot does not dissolve and brain tissue is permanently damaged. Today, about one-third gets an insufficient dosage. In contrast to that, an overdose can cause bleedings and further complications. Physicians are aware of this issue, but a reliable alternative is missing.
The thesis presents state-of-the-art principles and devices for the measurement and estimation of body weight in the context of medical applications. While scales are common and available at a hospital, the process of weighing takes too long and can hardly be integrated into the process of stroke treatment. Sensor systems and algorithms are presented in the section for related work and provide an overview of different approaches.
The here presented system -- called Libra3D -- consists of a computer installed in a real trauma room, as well as visual sensors integrated into the ceiling. For the estimation of the body weight, the patient is on a stretcher which is placed in the field of view of the sensors. The three sensors -- two RGB-D and a thermal camera -- are calibrated intrinsically and extrinsically. Also, algorithms for sensor fusion are presented to align the data from all sensors which is the base for a reliable segmentation of the patient.
A combination of state-of-the-art image and point cloud algorithms is used to localize the patient on the stretcher. The challenges in the scenario with the patient on the bed is the dynamic environment, including other people or medical devices in the field of view.
After the successful segmentation, a set of hand-crafted features is extracted from the patient's point cloud. These features rely on geometric and statistical values and provide a robust input to a subsequent machine learning approach. The final estimation is done with a previously trained artificial neural network.
The experiment section offers different configurations of the previously extracted feature vector. Additionally, the here presented approach is compared to state-of-the-art methods; the patient's own assessment, the physician's guess, and an anthropometric estimation. Besides the patient's own estimation, Libra3D outperforms all state-of-the-art estimation methods: 95 percent of all patients are estimated with a relative error of less than 10 percent to ground truth body weight. It takes only a minimal amount of time for the measurement, and the approach can easily be integrated into the treatment of stroke patients, while physicians are not hindered.
Furthermore, the section for experiments demonstrates two additional applications: The extracted features can also be used to estimate the body weight of people standing, or even walking in front of a 3D camera. Also, it is possible to determine or classify the BMI of a subject on a stretcher. A potential application for this approach is the reduction of the radiation dose of patients being exposed to X-rays during a CT examination.
During the time of this thesis, several data sets were recorded. These data sets contain the ground truth body weight, as well as the data from the sensors. They are available for the collaboration in the field of body weight estimation for medical applications.
Making machines understand natural language is a dream of mankind that existed
since a very long time. Early attempts at programming machines to converse with
humans in a supposedly intelligent way with humans relied on phrase lists and simple
keyword matching. However, such approaches cannot provide semantically adequate
answers, as they do not consider the specific meaning of the conversation. Thus, if we
want to enable machines to actually understand language, we need to be able to access
semantically relevant background knowledge. For this, it is possible to query so-called
ontologies, which are large networks containing knowledge about real-world entities
and their semantic relations. However, creating such ontologies is a tedious task, as often
extensive expert knowledge is required. Thus, we need to find ways to automatically
construct and update ontologies that fit human intuition of semantics and semantic
relations. More specifically, we need to determine semantic entities and find relations
between them. While this is usually done on large corpora of unstructured text, previous
work has shown that we can at least facilitate the first issue of extracting entities by
considering special data such as tagging data or human navigational paths. Here, we do
not need to detect the actual semantic entities, as they are already provided because of
the way those data are collected. Thus we can mainly focus on the problem of assessing
the degree of semantic relatedness between tags or web pages. However, there exist
several issues which need to be overcome, if we want to approximate human intuition of
semantic relatedness. For this, it is necessary to represent words and concepts in a way
that allows easy and highly precise semantic characterization. This also largely depends
on the quality of data from which these representations are constructed.
In this thesis, we extract semantic information from both tagging data created by users
of social tagging systems and human navigation data in different semantic-driven social
web systems. Our main goal is to construct high quality and robust vector representations
of words which can the be used to measure the relatedness of semantic concepts.
First, we show that navigation in the social media systems Wikipedia and BibSonomy is
driven by a semantic component. After this, we discuss and extend methods to model
the semantic information in tagging data as low-dimensional vectors. Furthermore, we
show that tagging pragmatics influences different facets of tagging semantics. We then
investigate the usefulness of human navigational paths in several different settings on
Wikipedia and BibSonomy for measuring semantic relatedness. Finally, we propose
a metric-learning based algorithm in adapt pre-trained word embeddings to datasets
containing human judgment of semantic relatedness.
This work contributes to the field of studying semantic relatedness between words
by proposing methods to extract semantic relatedness from web navigation, learn highquality
and low-dimensional word representations from tagging data, and to learn
semantic relatedness from any kind of vector representation by exploiting human
feedback. Applications first and foremest lie in ontology learning for the Semantic Web,
but also semantic search or query expansion.
This dissertation consists of three independent, self-contained research papers that investigate how state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms can be used in combination with operations management models to consider high dimensional data for improved planning decisions. More specifically, the thesis focuses on the question concerning how the underlying decision support models change structurally and how those changes affect the resulting decision quality.
Over the past years, the volume of globally stored data has experienced tremendous growth. Rising market penetration of sensor-equipped production machinery, advanced ways to track user behavior, and the ongoing use of social media lead to large amounts of data on production processes, user behavior, and interactions, as well as condition information about technical gear, all of which can provide valuable information to companies in planning their operations. In the past, two generic concepts have emerged to accomplish this. The first concept, separated estimation and optimization (SEO), uses data to forecast the central inputs (i.e., the demand) of a decision support model. The forecast and a distribution of forecast errors are then used in a subsequent stochastic optimization model to determine optimal decisions. In contrast to this sequential approach, the second generic concept, joint estimation-optimization (JEO), combines the forecasting and optimization step into a single optimization problem. Following this approach, powerful machine learning techniques are employed to approximate highly complex functional relationships and hence relate feature data directly to optimal decisions.
The first article, “Machine learning for inventory management: Analyzing two concepts to get from data to decisions”, chapter 2, examines performance differences between implementations of these concepts in a single-period Newsvendor setting. The paper first proposes a novel JEO implementation based on the random forest algorithm to learn optimal decision rules directly from a data set that contains historical sales and auxiliary data. Going forward, we analyze structural properties that lead to these performance differences. Our results show that the JEO implementation achieves significant cost improvements over the SEO approach. These differences are strongly driven by the decision problem’s cost structure and the amount and structure of the remaining forecast uncertainty.
The second article, “Prescriptive call center staffing”, chapter 3, applies the logic of integrating data analysis and optimization to a more complex problem class, an employee staffing problem in a call center. We introduce a novel approach to applying the JEO concept that augments historical call volume data with features like the day of the week, the beginning of the month, and national holiday periods. We employ a regression tree to learn the ex-post optimal staffing levels based on similarity structures in the data and then generalize these insights to determine future staffing levels. This approach, relying on only few modeling assumptions, significantly outperforms a state-of-the-art benchmark that uses considerably more model structure and assumptions.
The third article, “Data-driven sales force scheduling”, chapter 4, is motivated by the problem of how a company should allocate limited sales resources. We propose a novel approach based on the SEO concept that involves a machine learning model to predict the probability of winning a specific project. We develop a methodology that uses this prediction model to estimate the “uplift”, that is, the incremental value of an additional visit to a particular customer location. To account for the remaining uncertainty at the subsequent optimization stage, we adapt the decision support model in such a way that it can control for the level of trust in the predicted uplifts. This novel policy dominates both a benchmark that relies completely on the uplift information and a robust benchmark that optimizes the sum of potential profits while neglecting any uplift information.
The results of this thesis show that decision support models in operations management can be transformed fundamentally by considering additional data and benefit through better decision quality respectively lower mismatch costs. The way how machine learning algorithms can be integrated into these decision support models depends on the complexity and the context of the underlying decision problem. In summary, this dissertation provides an analysis based on three different, specific application scenarios that serve as a foundation for further analyses of employing machine learning for decision support in operations management.