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The thesis focuses on the valuation of firms in a system context where cross-holdings of the firms in liabilities and equities are allowed and, therefore, systemic risk can be modeled on a structural level. A main property of such models is that for the determination of the firm values a pricing equilibrium has to be found. While there exists a small but growing amount of research on the existence and the uniqueness of such price equilibria, the literature is still somewhat inconsistent. An example for this fact is that different authors define the underlying financial system on differing ways. Moreover, only few articles pay intense attention on procedures to find the pricing equilibria. In the existing publications, the provided algorithms mainly reflect the individual authors' particular approach to the problem. Additionally, all existing methods do have the drawback of potentially infinite runtime.
For these reasons, the objects of this thesis are as follows. First, a definition of a financial system is introduced in its most general form in Chapter 2. It is shown that under a fairly mild regularity condition the financial system has a unique existing payment equilibrium. In Chapter 3, some extensions and differing definitions of financial systems that exist in literature are presented and it is shown how these models can be embedded into the general model from the proceeding chapter. Second, an overview of existing valuation algorithms to find the equilibrium is given in Chapter 4, where the existing methods are generalized and their corresponding mathematical properties are highlighted. Third, a complete new class of valuation algorithms is developed in Chapter 4 that includes the additional information whether a firm is in default or solvent under a current payment vector. This results in procedures that are able find the solution of the system in a finite number of iteration steps. In Chapter 5, the developed concepts of Chapter 4 are applied to more general financial systems where more than one seniority level of debt is present. Chapter 6 develops optimal starting vectors for non-finite algorithms and Chapter 7 compares the existing and the new developed algorithms concerning their efficiency in an extensive simulation study covering a wide range of possible settings for financial systems.
Extreme value theory aims at modeling extreme but rare events from a probabilistic point of view. It is well-known that so-called generalized Pareto distributions, which are briefly reviewed in Chapter 1, are the only reasonable probability distributions suited for modeling observations above a high threshold, such as waves exceeding the height of a certain dike, earthquakes having at least a certain intensity, and, after applying a simple transformation, share prices falling below some low threshold. However, there are cases for which a generalized Pareto model might fail. Therefore, Chapter 2 derives certain neighborhoods of a generalized Pareto distribution and provides several statistical tests for these neighborhoods, where the cases of observing finite dimensional data and of observing continuous functions on [0,1] are considered. By using a notation based on so-called D-norms it is shown that these tests consistently link both frameworks, the finite dimensional and the functional one. Since the derivation of the asymptotic distributions of the test statistics requires certain technical restrictions, Chapter 3 analyzes these assumptions in more detail. It provides in particular some examples of distributions that satisfy the null hypothesis and of those that do not. Since continuous copula processes are crucial tools for the functional versions of the proposed tests, it is also discussed whether those copula processes actually exist for a given set of data. Moreover, some practical advice is given how to choose the free parameters incorporated in the test statistics. Finally, a simulation study in Chapter 4 compares the in total three different test statistics with another test found in the literature that has a similar null hypothesis. This thesis ends with a short summary of the results and an outlook to further open questions.
Based on the work of Eisenberg and Noe [2001], Suzuki [2002], Elsinger [2009] and Fischer [2014], we consider a generalization of Merton's asset valuation approach where n firms are linked by cross-ownership of equities and liabilities. Each firm is assumed to have a single outstanding liability, whereas its assets consist of one system-exogenous asset, as well as system-endogenous assets comprising some fraction of other firms' equity and liability, respectively. Following Fischer [2014], one can obtain no-arbitrage prices of equity and the recovery claims of liabilities as solutions of a fixed point problem, and hence obtain no-arbitrage prices of the `firm value' of each firm, which is the value of the firm's liability plus the firm's equity.
In a first step, we consider the two-firm case where explicit formulae for the no-arbitrage prices of the firm values are available (cf. Suzuki [2002]). Since firm values are derivatives of exogenous asset values, the distribution of firm values at maturity can be determined from the distribution of exogenous asset values. The Merton model and most of its known extensions do not account for the cross-ownership structure of the assets owned by the firm. Therefore the assumption of lognormally distributed exogenous assets leads to lognormally distributed firm values in such models, as the values of the liability and the equity add up to the exogenous asset's value (which has lognormal distribution by assumption). Our work therefore starts from lognormally distributed exogenous assets and reveals how cross-ownership, when correctly accounted for in the valuation process, affects the distribution of the firm value, which is not lognormal anymore. In a simulation study we examine the impact of several parameters (amount of cross-ownership of debt and equity, ratio of liabilities to expected exogenous assets value) on the differences between the distribution of firm values obtained from our model and correspondingly matched lognormal distributions. It becomes clear that the assumption of lognormally distributed firm values may lead to both over- and underestimation of the “true" firm values (within the cross-ownership model) and consequently of bankruptcy risk, too.
In a second step, the bankruptcy risk of one firm within the system is analyzed in more detail in a further simulation study, revealing that the correct incorporation of cross-ownership in the valuation procedure is the more important, the tighter the cross-ownership structure between the two firms. Furthermore, depending on the considered type of cross-ownership (debt or equity), the assumption of lognormally distributed firm values is likely to result in an over- resp. underestimation of the actual probability of default. In a similar vein, we consider the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of a firm in the system, which we calculate as the negative α-quantile of the firm value at maturity minus the firm's risk neutral price in t=0, i.e. we consider the (1-α)100%-VaR of the change in firm value. If we let the cross-ownership fractions (i.e. the fraction that one firm holds of another firm's debt or equity) converge to 1 (which is the supremum of the possible values that cross-ownership fractions can take), we can prove that in a system of two firms, the lognormal model will over- resp. underestimate both univariate and bivariate probabilities of default under cross-ownership of debt only resp. cross-ownership of equity only. Furthermore, we provide a formula that allows us to check for an arbitrary scenario of cross-ownership and any non-negative distribution of exogenous assets whether the approximating lognormal model will over- or underestimate the related probability of default of a firm. In particular, any given non-negative distribution of exogenous asset values (non-degenerate in a certain sense) can be transformed into a new, “extreme" distribution of exogenous assets yielding such a low or high actual probability of default that the approximating lognormal model will over- and underestimate this risk, respectively.
After this analysis of the univariate distribution of firm values under cross-ownership in a system of two firms with bivariately lognormally distributed exogenous asset values, we consider the copula of these firm values as a distribution-free measure of the dependency between these firm values. Without cross-ownership, this copula would be the Gaussian copula. Under cross-ownership, we especially consider the behaviour of the copula of firm values in the lower left and upper right corner of the unit square, and depending on the type of cross-ownership and the considered corner, we either obtain error bounds as to how good the copula of firm values under cross-ownership can be approximated with the Gaussian copula, or we see that the copula of firm values can be written as the copula of two linear combinations of exogenous asset values (note that these linear combinations are not lognormally distributed). These insights serve as a basis for our analysis of the tail dependence coefficient of firm values under cross-ownership. Under cross-ownership of debt only, firm values remain upper tail independent, whereas they become perfectly lower tail dependent if the correlation between exogenous asset values exceeds a certain positive threshold, which does not depend on the exact level of cross-ownership. Under cross-ownership of equity only, the situation is reverse in that firm values always remain lower tail independent, but upper tail independence is preserved if and only if the right tail behaviour of both firms’ values is determined by the right tail behaviour of the firms’ own exogenous asset value instead of the respective other firm’s exogenous asset value.
Next, we return to systems of n≥2 firms and analyze sensitivities of no-arbitrage prices of equity and the recovery claims of liabilities with respect to the model parameters. In the literature, such sensitivities are provided with respect to exogenous asset values by Gouriéroux et al. [2012], and we extend the existing results by considering how these no-arbitrage prices depend on the cross-ownership fractions and the level of liabilities. For the former, we can show that all prices are non-decreasing in any cross-ownership fraction in the model, and by use of a version of the Implicit Function Theorem we can also determine exact derivatives. For the latter, we show that the recovery value of debt and the equity value of a firm are non-decreasing and non-increasing in the firm's nominal level of liabilities, respectively, but the firm value is in general not monotone in the firm's level of liabilities. Furthermore, no-arbitrage prices of equity and the recovery claims of liabilities of a firm are in general non-monotone in the nominal level of liabilities of other firms in the system. If we confine ourselves to one type of cross-ownership (i.e. debt or equity), we can derive more precise relationships. All the results can be transferred to risk-neutral prices before maturity.
Finally, following Gouriéroux et al. [2012] and as a kind of extension to the above sensitivity results, we consider how immediate changes in exogenous asset values of one or more firms at maturity affect the financial health of a system of n initially solvent firms. We start with some theoretical considerations on what we call the contagion effect, namely the change in the endogenous asset value of a firm caused by shocks on the exogenous assets of firms within the system. For the two-firm case, an explicit formula is available, making clear that in general (and in particular under cross-ownership of equity only), the effect of contagion can be positive as well as negative, i.e. it can both, mitigate and exacerbate the change in the exogenous asset value of a firm. On the other hand, we cannot generally say that a tighter cross-ownership structure leads to bigger absolute contagion effects. Under cross-ownership of debt only, firms cannot profit from positive shocks beyond the direct effect on exogenous assets, as the contagion effect is always non-positive. Next, we are concerned with spillover effects of negative shocks on a subset of firms to other firms in the system (experiencing non-negative shocks themselves), driving them into default due to large losses in their endogenous asset values. Extending the results of Glasserman and Young [2015], we provide a necessary condition for the shock to cause such an event. This also yields an upper bound for the probability of such an event. We further investigate how the stability of a system of firms exposed to multiple shocks depends on the model parameters in a simulation study. In doing so, we consider three network types (incomplete, core-periphery and ring network) with simultaneous shocks on some of the firms and wiping out a certain percentage of their exogenous assets. Then we analyze for all three types of cross-ownership (debt only, equity only, both debt and equity) how the shock intensity, the shock size, and network parameters as the number of links in the network and the proportion of a firm's debt or equity held within the system of firms influences several output parameters, comprising the total number of defaults and the relative loss in the sum of firm values, among others. Comparing our results to the studies of Nier et al. [2007], Gai and Kapadia [2010] and Elliott et al. [2014], we can only partly confirm their results with respect to the number of defaults. We conclude our work with a theoretical comparison of the complete network (where each firm holds a part of any other firm) and the ring network with respect to the number of defaults caused by a shock on a single firm, as it is done by Allen and Gale [2000]. In line with the literature, we find that under cross-ownership of debt only, complete networks are “robust yet fragile" [Gai and Kapadia, 2010] in that moderate shocks can be completely withstood or drive the firm directly hit by the shock in default, but as soon as the shock exceeds a certain size, all firms are simultaneously in default. In contrast to that, firms default one by one in the ring network, with the first “contagious default" (i.e. a default of a firm not directly hit by the shock) already occurs for smaller shock sizes than under the complete network.
The first goal of this thesis is to generalize Loewner's famous differential equation to multiply connected domains. The resulting differential equations are known as Komatu--Loewner differential equations. We discuss Komatu--Loewner equations for canonical domains (circular slit disks, circular slit annuli and parallel slit half-planes). Additionally, we give a generalisation to several slits and discuss parametrisations that lead to constant coefficients. Moreover, we compare Komatu--Loewner equations with several slits to single slit Loewner equations.
Finally we generalise Komatu--Loewner equations to hulls satisfying a local growth property.
This thesis deals with the hp-finite element method (FEM) for linear quadratic optimal control problems. Here, a tracking type functional with control costs as regularization shall be minimized subject to an elliptic partial differential equation. In the presence of control constraints, the first order necessary conditions, which are typically used to find optimal solutions numerically, can be formulated as a semi-smooth projection formula. Consequently, optimal solutions may be non-smooth as well. The hp-discretization technique considers this fact and approximates rough functions on fine meshes while using higher order finite elements on domains where the solution is smooth.
The first main achievement of this thesis is the successful application of hp-FEM to two related problem classes: Neumann boundary and interface control problems. They are solved with an a-priori refinement strategy called boundary concentrated (bc) FEM and interface concentrated (ic) FEM, respectively. These strategies generate grids that are heavily refined towards the boundary or interface. We construct an elementwise interpolant that allows to prove algebraic decay of the approximation error for both techniques. Additionally, a detailed analysis of global and local regularity of solutions, which is critical for the speed of convergence, is included. Since the bc- and ic-FEM retain small polynomial degrees for elements touching the boundary and interface, respectively, we are able to deduce novel error estimates in the L2- and L∞-norm. The latter allows an a-priori strategy for updating the regularization parameter in the objective functional to solve bang-bang problems.
Furthermore, we apply the traditional idea of the hp-FEM, i.e., grading the mesh geometrically towards vertices of the domain, for solving optimal control problems (vc-FEM). In doing so, we obtain exponential convergence with respect to the number of unknowns. This is proved with a regularity result in countably normed spaces for the variables of the coupled optimality system.
The second main achievement of this thesis is the development of a fully adaptive hp-interior point method that can solve problems with distributed or Neumann control. The underlying barrier problem yields a non-linear optimality system, which poses a numerical challenge: the numerically stable evaluation of integrals over possibly singular functions in higher order elements. We successfully overcome this difficulty by monitoring the control variable at the integration points and enforcing feasibility in an additional smoothing step. In this work, we prove convergence of an interior point method with smoothing step and derive a-posteriori error estimators. The adaptive mesh refinement is based on the expansion of the solution in a Legendre series. The decay of the coefficients serves as an indicator for smoothness that guides between h- and p-refinement.
The goal of this thesis is to investigate conformal mappings onto circular arc polygon domains, i.e. domains that are bounded by polygons consisting of circular arcs instead of line segments.
Conformal mappings onto circular arc polygon domains contain parameters in addition to the classical parameters of the Schwarz-Christoffel transformation. To contribute to the parameter problem of conformal mappings from the unit disk onto circular arc polygon domains, we investigate two special cases of these mappings. In the first case we can describe the additional parameters if the bounding circular arc polygon is a polygon with straight sides. In the second case we provide an approximation for the additional parameters if the circular arc polygon domain satisfies some symmetry conditions. These results allow us to draw conclusions on the connection between these additional parameters and the classical parameters of the mapping.
For conformal mappings onto multiply connected circular arc polygon domains, we provide an alternative construction of the mapping formula without using the Schottky-Klein prime function. In the process of constructing our main result, mappings for domains of connectivity three or greater, we also provide a formula for conformal mappings onto doubly connected circular arc polygon domains. The comparison of these mapping formulas with already known mappings allows us to provide values for some of the parameters of the mappings onto doubly connected circular arc polygon domains if the image domain is a polygonal domain.
The different components of the mapping formula are constructed by using a slightly modified variant of the Poincaré theta series. This construction includes the design of a function to remove unwanted poles and of different versions of functions that are analytic on the domain of definition of the mapping functions and satisfy some special functional equations.
We also provide the necessary concepts to numerically evaluate the conformal mappings onto multiply connected circular arc polygon domains. As the evaluation of such a map requires the solution of a differential equation, we provide a possible configuration of curves inside the preimage domain to solve the equation along them in addition to a description of the procedure for computing either the formula for the doubly connected case or the case of connectivity three or greater. We also describe the procedures for solving the parameter problem for multiply connected circular arc polygon domains.
The purpose of confidence and prediction intervals is to provide an interval estimation for an unknown distribution parameter or the future value of a phenomenon. In many applications, prior knowledge about the distribution parameter is available, but rarely made use of, unless in a Bayesian framework. This thesis provides exact frequentist confidence intervals of minimal volume exploiting prior information. The scheme is applied to distribution parameters of the binomial and the Poisson distribution. The Bayesian approach to obtain intervals on a distribution parameter in form of credibility intervals is considered, with particular emphasis on the binomial distribution. An application of interval estimation is found in auditing, where two-sided intervals of Stringer type are meant to contain the mean of a zero-inflated population. In the context of time series analysis, covariates are supposed to improve the prediction of future values. Exponential smoothing with covariates as an extension of the popular forecasting method exponential smoothing is considered in this thesis. A double-seasonality version of it is applied to forecast hourly electricity load under the use of meteorological covariates. Different kinds of prediction intervals for exponential smoothing with covariates are formulated.
The subject of this thesis is the rigorous passage from discrete systems to continuum models via variational methods.
The first part of this work studies a discrete model describing a one-dimensional chain of atoms with finite range interactions of Lennard-Jones type. We derive an expansion of the ground state energy using \(\Gamma\)-convergence. In particular, we show that a variant of the Cauchy-Born rule holds true for the model under consideration. We exploit this observation to derive boundary layer energies due to asymmetries of the lattice at the boundary or at cracks of the specimen. Hereby we extend several results obtained previously for models involving only nearest and next-to-nearest neighbour interactions by Braides and Cicalese and Scardia, Schlömerkemper and Zanini.
The second part of this thesis is devoted to the analysis of a quasi-continuum (QC) method. To this end, we consider the discrete model studied in the first part of this thesis as the fully atomistic model problem and construct an approximation based on a QC method. We show that in an elastic setting the expansion by \(\Gamma\)-convergence of the fully atomistic energy and its QC approximation coincide. In the case of fracture, we show that this is not true in general. In the case of only nearest and next-to-nearest neighbour interactions, we give sufficient conditions on the QC approximation such that, also in case of fracture, the minimal energies of the fully atomistic energy and its approximation coincide in the limit.
Der Einzug des Rechners in den Mathematikunterricht hat eine Vielzahl neuer Möglichkeiten der Darstellung mit sich gebracht, darunter auch multiple, dynamisch verbundene Repräsentationen mathematischer Probleme. Die Arbeit beantwortet die Frage, ob und wie diese Repräsentationsarten von Schülerinnen und Schüler in Argumentationen genutzt werden. In der empirischen Untersuchung wurde dabei einerseits quantitativ erforscht, wie groß der Einfluss der in der Aufgabenstellung gegebenen Repräsentationsform auf die schriftliche Argumentationen der Schülerinnen und Schüler ist. Andererseits wurden durch eine qualitative Analyse spezifische Nutzungsweisen identifiziert und mittels Toulmins Argumentationsmodell beschrieben. Diese Erkenntnisse wurden genutzt, um Konsequenzen bezüglich der Verwendung von multiplen und/oder dynamischen Repräsentationen im Mathematikunterricht der Sekundarstufe zu formulieren.
The investigation of interacting multi-agent models is a new field of mathematical research with application to the study of behavior in groups of animals or community of people. One interesting feature of multi-agent systems is collective behavior. From the mathematical point of view, one of the challenging issues considering with these dynamical models is development of control mechanisms that are able to influence the time evolution of these systems.
In this thesis, we focus on the study of controllability, stabilization and optimal control problems for multi-agent systems considering three models as follows: The first one is the Hegselmann Krause opinion formation (HK) model. The HK dynamics describes how individuals' opinions are changed by the interaction with others taking place in a bounded domain of confidence. The study of this model focuses on determining feedback controls in order to drive the agents' opinions to reach a desired agreement. The second model is the Heider social balance (HB) model. The HB dynamics explains the evolution of relationships in a social network. One purpose of studying this system is the construction of control function in oder to steer the relationship to reach a friendship state. The third model that we discuss is a flocking model describing collective motion observed in biological systems. The flocking model under consideration includes self-propelling, friction, attraction, repulsion, and alignment features. We investigate a control for steering the flocking system to track a desired trajectory. Common to all these systems is our strategy to add a leader agent that interacts with all other members of the system and includes the control mechanism.
Our control through leadership approach is developed using classical theoretical control methods and a model predictive control (MPC) scheme. To apply the former method, for each model the stability of the corresponding linearized system near consensus is investigated. Further, local controllability is examined. However, only in the
Hegselmann-Krause opinion formation model, the feedback control is determined in order to steer agents' opinions to globally converge to a desired agreement. The MPC approach is an optimal control strategy based on numerical optimization. To apply the MPC scheme, optimal control problems for each model are formulated where the objective functions are different depending on the desired objective of the problem. The first-oder necessary optimality conditions for each problem are presented. Moreover for the numerical treatment, a sequence of open-loop discrete optimality systems is solved by accurate Runge-Kutta schemes, and in the optimization procedure, a nonlinear conjugate gradient solver is implemented. Finally, numerical experiments are performed to investigate the properties of the multi-agent models and demonstrate the ability of the proposed control strategies to drive multi-agent systems to attain a desired consensus and to track a given trajectory.