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In der vorliegenden Studie wird ein entscheidungsmodelltheoretischer Ansatz verwendet, um unter Vernachlässigung von Unsicherheit und Risiko Kennzahlen zu entwickeln, die verschiedene Formen der Altersvorsorge miteinander vergleichbar machen. Zu diesem Zweck werden die steuer- und sozialversicherungsrechtlichen Grundlagen für ausgewählte Altersvorsorgeformen (gesetzliche Rentenversicherung, Basisrentenversicherung, zulagengeförderte Altersvorsorge, betriebliche Altersversorgung und private Rentenversicherung) im Rechtsrahmen des Jahres 2020 erläutert. Darauf aufbauend wird ein eigenes System von Kennzahlen entwickelt, um die Vor- und Nachteile der jeweiligen Alterssicherungsform zu quantifizieren. Die Ergebnisse werden anhand von stilisierten Modellbiografien präsentiert und diskutiert. Eine abschließende Gesamtwürdigung fasst schließlich wesentliche Erkenntnisse zusammen.
Government support for green technologies and renewable energy in particular has become an integral cornerstone of economic policy for most industrialized economies. Due to competitive price determination and supposedly higher efficiency, auctions have in recent years widely succeeded feed-in-tariffs as the primary support instrument (del Rio & Linares, 2014; REN21, 2021). However, literature still struggles to produce causal evidence to validate mostly descriptive findings for efficiency gains. Yet, this evidence is needed as a foundation to provide robust recommendations to policy makers (Grashof et al., 2020). By utilizing a difference-in-differences approach, this paper provides such evidence for a German photovoltaic (PV) auctioning program which came into effect in 2015. Results for this natural experiment confirm that cost-effectiveness improved significantly while previous literature shows that capacity expansion remained high. Results additionally show that falling prices for PV panels were the primary driver of cost reductions and wages also exert high influence on support price. Input cost development therefore indeed strongly influences support level which was the aim with introducing competitive auctions. Interest rate development cannot be linked to support level development, most probably due to the low interest environment in considered period.
We quantify the contemporaneous relationships among stock markets in the euro area, the United States, and a group of emerging economies over the period from 2008 to 2017. Exploiting the heteroskedasticity in the stock market data, we identify shocks that originated in the respective domestic markets and shocks that are common to all markets. Our results underline the leading role of the United States in international equity markets, but also point to the importance of indirect spillovers for all economies. Variance decompositions show that while domestic shocks explain the bigger part of the variation in each stock market, a substantial part of the variation in the euro area and the emerging economies can be attributed to foreign shocks. A comparison with a sample covering the pre‐crisis period from 1999 to 2007 suggests a strengthening of the linkages among global stock markets in recent years. In particular, the spillovers from advanced to emerging economies have become more pronounced.
Die Prüfungshonorare branchenspezialisierter Wirtschaftsprüfer in der deutschen Versicherungsbranche
(2021)
Trotz der immensen ökonomischen Bedeutung von Versicherungen für marktwirtschaftlich orientierte Volkswirtschaften haben sich bis dato nur wenige nationale und internationale Forschungsarbeiten dem Abschlussprüfermarkt für Versicherungsunternehmen gewidmet. Die vorliegende Arbeit hat sich dieser Thematik angenommen und liefert empirische Resultate bezüglich des Abschlussprüfermarktes für Versicherungsunternehmen in Deutschland. Neben einer detaillierten Strukturanalyse steht hierbei die Frage im Fokus, ob testierende Prüfungspartner, welche in Bezug auf die deutsche Versicherungsbranche einen hohen Spezialisierungsgrad aufweisen, die Höhe des erhobenen Prüfungshonorars beeinflussen. Dabei wird auch der Tatsache Rechnung getragen, dass in Deutschland gewöhnlich zwei Wirtschaftsprüfer (Links- und Rechtsunterzeichner) mit unterschiedlichen Aufgaben- und Verantwortungsbereichen den Jahres- bzw. den Konzernabschluss testieren.
Die Resultate liefern Evidenz dafür, dass insbesondere Rechtsunterzeichner, denen entweder aufgrund ihres verhältnismäßig hohen Marktanteils bei Abschlussprüfungen in der Versicherungsbranche oder aufgrund ihrer Mitgliedschaft im IDW-Versicherungsfachausschuss ein hoher Spezialisierungsgrad zugesprochen wird, ökonomisch relevante Honoraraufschläge erzielen können.
Does Gender Matter for the Entrepreneurship Fairy Tale? An Analysis of Chinese Unicorn Start-ups
(2021)
Start-up ecosystems around the world have created a large number of successful and innovative unicorn companies in recent years. Our research note focuses on the case of China and offers a global comparative perspective on the current status of Chinese unicorn start-ups and their founding structure. We identify a predominantly male unicorn founding structure and illustrate a worrying decline of female entrepreneurship in China.
Data as the new driver for growth? European and Chinese perspectives on the new factor of production
(2021)
Amidst an emerging international systemic competition between China and the Western world, China’s sustained high economic growth rates, technological innovations and successful control of the corona pandemic have raised doubts over the West’s systemic capabilities. In this context, data resources and regimes play an increasing role.
This research note looks at data as present and future driver of innovation and economic growth in more detail. It compares the Chinese and the European perspective on data as well as their respective (planned) policy measures in order to draw tentative conclusions about their different approaches' implications.
A principal hires an agent to provide a verifiable service. Initially, the agent can exert unobservable effort to reduce his disutility from providing the service. If the agent is free to waive his right to quit, he may voluntarily sign a contract specifying an inefficiently large service level, while there are insufficient incentives to exert effort. If the agent’s right to quit is inalienable, the underprovision of effort may be further aggravated, but the service level is ex post efficient. Overall, it turns out that the total surplus can be larger when agents are not permitted to contractually waive their right to quit work. Yet, we also study an extension of our model in which even the agent can be strictly better off when the parties have the contractual freedom to waive the agent’s right to quit.
Sales forecasts are an essential determinant of operational planning in entrepreneurial organizations. However, in China, as in other emerging markets, monthly sales forecasts are particularly challenging for multinational automotive enterprises and suppliers. A chief reason for this is that conventional approaches to sales forecasting often fail to capture the underlying market dynamics. To that end, this dissertation investigates the application of Artificial Neural Networks with an implemented backpropagation algorithm as a more “unconventional” sales forecasting method. A key element of statistical modelling is the selection of superior leading indicators. These indicators were collected as part of the researcher’s expert interviews with multinational enterprises and state associations in China. The economic plausibility of all specified indicators is critically explored in qualitative-quantitative pre-selection procedures. The overall objective of the present study was to improve the accuracy of monthly sales forecasts in the Chinese automotive market. This objective was achieved by showing that the forecasting error could be lowered to a new benchmark of less than 10% in an out-of-sample forecasting application.
The present dissertation analyzes whether bank debt lending influences certain managerial decisions of borrowers, and if so, how. More precisely, the thesis investigates the influence of bank debt lending on the cost of debt and capital structure of firms, and on the accounting behavior of borrowers prior to borrowing new bank debt. The major aim of the dissertation is to deliver empirical evidence that central managerial decisions of companies are not only made by managers and equity owners but also driven by important debt investors. The objects of discussion are German small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). These firms are particularly suitable for this analysis, as they commonly have high bank debt proportions.
The dissertation comprises three separate empirical analyses, which investigate selected aspects in the above mentioned context. Section 3.1 inspects the impact of the Basel II Capital Accord and the financial crisis on the cost of debt of German SMEs. Basel II formalized the credit assessment of debtors. This might have led to higher costs and a higher risk awareness of banks. Banks might have tried to refinance those additional costs by imposing tighter credit terms on debtors. Especially SMEs might face a higher cost of debt, as they tend to have comparably high proportions of bank debt, low equity ratios, and consecutively lower ratings than big companies. The results presented in Section 3.1 indicate a significant rise of the cost of debt since 2007. Unfortunately, the amendment of Basel II was followed by the financial crisis. It is difficult to separate the effect of the reform and the one of the crisis on the costs of debt capital of German SMEs. The presented analysis controls for several possible interdependencies be-tween credit costs, credit shortage and the insolvency risk of companies. However, none of the analyzed facts indicates a significant change in the extent of bank credit granting to SMEs during the financial crisis that would justify higher costs of debt capital. The results might point out that banks made use of the special situation of the financial crisis and raised credit standards for SME loans.
Section 3.2 examines whether bank debt financing drives certain accounting choices of Ger-man SMEs. At least since Basel II, banks have to base their credit assessments on objective, quantitative ratings, which commonly rely on financial statement data. As loan interest rates account for a significant proportion of the cost of capital of SMEs, their incentive to optimize loan conditions is obvious. Under the assumption that SMEs are aware of the importance of financial statements data in credit assessments, they might have an incentive to direct their financial statements at banks. More precisely, SMEs might strive to exploit their asymmetric information advantage over banks by manipulating earnings with the intention to achieve decent credit terms. The results presented in Section 3.2 show that SMEs have significantly higher total accruals in the period prior to borrowing new bank debt than in other periods. Moreover, a higher bank debt proportion is accompanied by higher total accruals. Hence, particularly bank-dependent firms seem to alter their accounting behavior prior to the important corporate financing event of bor-rowing new bank debt. Finally, the study investigates whether earnings manipulation is detected by banks or whether it is effective and influences the cost of debt of German SMEs. Empirical results in Section 3.2 indicate that SMEs, which report positive discretionary accruals are re-warded in terms of a lower cost of debt. This might imply that banks do not see through earnings manipulation.
Section 3.3 contains results of a comprehensive survey of German SMEs, which intends to further analyze the research questions posed in Section 3.1 and 3.2. First, the survey aims to verify or falsify the results concerning the impact of Basel II on the cost of debt and the re-quirements to obtain a loan for SMEs since 2007. A large proportion of survey respondents complained about a higher effort needed to obtain a new bank loan since 2007. Moreover, for the majority of survey participants both the collateral demanded by banks and the strictness of covenants increased since Basel II. In addition, almost half of surveyed SMEs experience higher costs of bank debt since the amendment of the reform. The second part of the survey aims to investigate whether SMEs apply measures of earnings manipulation in the period prior to bor-rowing new bank debt. The majority of SMEs admit that they would use both certain means of real activities and accrual manipulation in order to achieve decent credit terms in the subsequent debt contract negotiation.
Taking these empirical results into consideration, the dissertation shows that certain manage-rial decisions of German SMEs are influenced by debt holders. Results in Sections 3.1 and 3.3 indicate that SME bank lending was affected by Basel II and the financial crisis. The cost of debt of German SMEs is significantly higher since Basel II, even after controlling for potential influences of the financial crisis. These higher costs of debt might have additional side effects on further corporate financing and/or investment decisions. Furthermore, results in Sections 3.2 and 3.3 indicate that bank debt lending influences accounting choices of German SMEs, particu-larly in the period before borrowing new bank debt. SME use both means of real activities and accrual management in order to achieve decent credit terms. This change of accounting behavior might be accompanied by effort, additional effects on other corporate contracts, and notable economic costs.
Sustainability has become a critical topic in all areas of supply chain management. As discussed earlier, drivers for this development can be identified as both internal and external phenomena. Since customers are one of the key stakeholders in supply chain management, special attention is paid to the impact of costumers´ behavior on sustainable supply chain design decisions. In this context, two main research questions were analyzed:
1.What is the appropriate way to design a supply chain according to environmentally-oriented requirements of customers?
2.What is the impact of customer´s behavior regarding both usage and return of products on supply chain design decisions in an environmentally conscious closed-loop supply chain environment?
Therefore, three different optimization models with various main aspects are developed. To illustrate how the presented models can be applied in practical problem cases, guidelines for implementing an environmentally supply chain design project are presented.