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The analysis of how a general change, an economic shock and a modified institutional framework condition affect the HRM process, provide the motivation for the present dissertation. Thereby, the dissertation concentrates on certain areas of the HRM process, namely compensation, further training and retention, as well as changes and challenges that have been subject to a high degree of public interest in recent years. It consists of three essays, all self-contained and independently readable.
The first essay investigates whether it is possible to keep employees in the establishment by offering further training measures. Therefore, this essay uses a comparison group approach and compares only training participants with those employees who had been selected by the employer to participate in training but had to cancel it for exogenous reasons. From a methodological point of view, by means of Fixed Effects and Diff GMM estimations, the essay also controls for time-variant and invariant unobserved heterogeneity as well as endogeneity of training participation. By simultaneously considering the components from the human capital theory as well as the monopsony theory, the essay shows that portability of general human capital contents and visibility of training, induced by training certificates, independently reduce the retention effect of training. The negative effect is much stronger if training is certified by external institutions and therefore credible. In addition, the effects of visibility and portability are distinct and thus also reduce the retention effect of training separately. However, the total effect of portable, visible and credible training on retention is still positive. Therefore, further training appears to be an effective measure to keep the qualified employees in the establishment.
Second, the attention is on a short-term unpredictable economic shock: Essay 2 analyses whether and to what extent the Great Recession in 2008 and 2009 has had an impact on the individual training behaviour in establishments. From a theoretical point of view, the effects of the crisis on establishments' training activities are ambiguous. On the one hand, the reduced opportunity costs of training argue more in favour of an increase in further training. On the other hand, economic theory suggests decreasing training activities in the crisis because of reduced financial resources, uncertain future prospects, and, therefore, unclear returns on training. Using Difference-in-Differences analyses, this essay avoids endogeneity problems caused by unobservable third factors. The Great Recession in 2008 and 2009 can be seen as an exogenous and time-limited shock: this quasi-experimental setting helps to reveal the causal impact of the crisis on the training intensity and the number of training measures. Results indicate that there is a direct effect of the crisis on individual training activities in 2009 and 2010. This effect is stronger for unskilled employees than for employees with higher skill levels. Furthermore, the negative effect sets in with a time lag and lasts until the year 2010 (although there is already an economic upswing). Numerous analyses are used to check additional heterogeneities in training activities for other employee groups.
Among others, particularly the area of executive compensation was affected by the economic crisis and the ensuing regulations in institutional framework conditions. The third essay of this dissertation deals with the question whether these changes had an impact on the compensation level and structure of executive board members. The focus is on the extent to which executive compensation is converging within and between different exchange segments in Germany. Based on a sample of CEOs and non-CEOs of German DAX and MDAX establishments, the evolution of executive compensation levels and structures (i.e., fractions of base pay, short- and long-term incentives) are examined during the period from 2006 until 2012. The results of descriptive as well as multivariate Fixed Effects analyses indicate isomorphism of both, pay levels and pay structures within (intra-segment-convergence) and between (inter-segment convergence) stock exchange segments especially for CEOs. However, for the other members of the management board (non-CEOs), there is only a convergence of the compensation structure within the segments. The results do not indicate either intra- or inter-segment convergence of salary levels.
Altogether, the three essays of this dissertation provide a selection of the current changes and challenges that HRM has to deal with. From a methodological perspective, all three essays use different applied econometric estimation strategies. In order to eliminate estimation problems caused by time-invariant and variant unobserved heterogeneity and endogeneity, Fixed Effects, Diff GMM as well as Difference-in-Differences approaches are applied. In addition, sample selection, research design as well as identification strategy attempts to avoid estimation bias. The first two essays are based on a linked-employer-employee panel data set and adopt a personnel economic perspective. The third essay uses establishment-level data and is based on institutional theory. The first essay was written in cooperation with Thomas Zwick and the third essay was written in cooperation with Nathalie Haidegger-Rieß and Robert Wagner.
This dissertation focuses on the drivers of international capital flows to emerging markets, as well as the determinants of crises in emerging markets. Particular emphasis is devoted to the role of U.S. monetary policy. The dissertation consists of three independent chapters.
Chapter 1 is a survey of the voluminous empirical literature on the drivers of capital flows to emerging markets. The contribution of the survey is to provide a comprehensive assessment of what we can say with relative confidence about the empirical drivers of EM capital flows. The evidence is structured based on the recognition that the drivers of capital flows vary over time and across different types of capital flows. The drivers are classified using the traditional framework for external and domestic factors (often referred to as “push versus pull” drivers), which is augmented by a distinction between cyclical and structural factors. Push factors are found to matter most for portfolio flows, somewhat less for banking flows, and least for foreign direct investment (FDI). Pull factors matter for all three components, but most for banking flows. A historical perspective suggests that the recent literature may have overemphasized the importance of cyclical factors at the expense of longer-term structural trends.
Chapter 2 undertakes an empirical analysis of the drivers of portfolio flows to emerging markets, focusing on the role of Fed policy. A time series model is estimated to analyze two different concepts of high frequency portfolio flows, including monthly data on flows into investment funds and a novel dataset on monthly portfolio flows obtained from individual national sources. The evidence presented in this chapter suggests a more nuanced interpretation of the role of U.S. monetary policy. In the existing literature, it is traditionally argued that Fed policy tightening is unambiguously negative for capital flows to emerging markets. By contrast, the findings presented in this dissertation suggest that it is the surprise element of monetary policy that affects EM portfolio inflows. A shift in market expectations towards easier future U.S. monetary policy leads to greater foreign portfolio inflows and vice versa. Given current market expectations of sustained increases in the federal funds rate in coming years, EM portfolio flows could be boosted by a slower pace of Fed tightening than currently expected or could be reduced by a faster pace of Fed tightening.
Chapter 3 examines the role of U.S. monetary policy in determining the incidence of emerging market crises. A negative binomial count model and a panel logit model are estimated to analyze the determinants of currency crises, banking crises, and sovereign defaults in a group of 27 emerging economies. The estimation results suggest that the probability of crises is substantially higher (1) when the federal funds rate is above its natural level, (2) during Fed policy tightening cycles, and (3) when market participants are surprised by signals that the Fed will tighten policy faster than previously expected. These findings contrast with the existing literature, which generally views domestic factors as the dominant determinants of emerging market crises. The findings also point to a heightened risk of emerging market crises in the coming years if the Fed continues to tighten monetary policy.