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Background
The impact of risk factors on poor outcome after ischemic stroke is well known, but estimating the amount of poor outcome attributable to single factors is challenging in presence of multimorbidity. We aim to compare population attributable risk estimates obtained from different statistical approaches regarding their consistency. We use a real-life data set from the PROSCIS study to identify predictors for mortality and functional impairment one year after first-ever ischemic stroke and quantify their contribution to poor outcome using population attributable risks.
Methods
The PROSpective Cohort with Incident Stroke (PROSCIS) is a prospective observational hospital-based cohort study of patients after first-ever stroke conducted independently in Berlin (PROSCIS-B) and Munich (PROSCIS-M). The association of baseline factors with poor outcome one year after stroke in PROSCIS-B was analysed using multiple logistic regression analysis and population attributable risks were calculated, which were estimated using sequential population attributable risk based on a multiple generalized additive regression model, doubly robust estimation, as well as using average sequential population attributable risk. Findings were reproduced in an independent validation sample from PROSCIS-M.
Results
Out of 507 patients with available outcome information after 12 months in PROSCIS-B, 20.5% suffered from poor outcome. Factors associated with poor outcome were age, pre-stroke physical disability, stroke severity (NIHSS), education, and diabetes mellitus. The order of risk factors ranked by magnitudes of population attributable risk was almost similar for all methods, but population attributable risk estimates varied markedly between the methods. In PROSCIS-M, incidence of poor outcome and distribution of baseline parameters were comparable. The multiple logistic regression model could be reproduced for all predictors, except pre-stroke physical disability. Similar to PROSCIS-B, the order of risk factors ranked by magnitudes of population attributable risk was almost similar for all methods, but magnitudes of population attributable risk differed markedly between the methods.
Conclusions
Ranking of risk factors by population impact is not affected by the different statistical approaches. Thus, for a rational decision on which risk factor to target in disease interventions, population attributable risk is a supportive tool. However, population attributable risk estimates are difficult to interpret and are not comparable when they origin from studies applying different methodology. The predictors for poor outcome identified in PROSCIS-B have a relevant impact on mortality and functional impairment one year after first-ever ischemic stroke.
Background:
The German quality assurance programme for evaluating work capacity is based on peer review that evaluates the quality of medical experts' reports. Low reliability is thought to be due to systematic differences among peers. For this purpose, we developed a curriculum for a standardized peer-training (SPT). This study investigates, whether the SPT increases the inter-rater reliability of social medical physicians participating in a cross-institutional peer review.
Methods:
Forty physicians from 16 regional German Pension Insurances were subjected to SPT. The three-day training course consist of nine educational objectives recorded in a training manual. The SPT is split into a basic module providing basic information about the peer review and an advanced module for small groups of up to 12 peers training peer review using medical reports. Feasibility was tested by assessing selection, comprehensibility and subjective use of contents delivered, the trainers' delivery and design of training materials. The effectiveness of SPT was determined by evaluating peer concordance using three anonymised medical reports assessed by each peer. Percentage agreement and Fleiss' kappa (κ\(_m\)) were calculated. Concordance was compared with review results from a previous unstructured, non-standardized peer-training programme (control condition) performed by 19 peers from 12 German Pension Insurances departments. The control condition focused exclusively on the application of peer review in small groups. No specifically training materials, methods and trainer instructions were used.
Results:
Peer-training was shown to be feasible. The level of subjective confidence in handling the peer review instrument varied between 70 and 90%. Average percentage agreement for the main outcome criterion was 60.2%, resulting in a κ\(_m\) of 0.39. By comparison, the average percentage concordance was 40.2% and the κ\(_m\) was 0.12 for the control condition.
Conclusion:
Concordance with the main criterion was relevant but not significant (p = 0.2) higher for SPT than for the control condition. Fleiss' kappa coefficient showed that peer concordance was higher for SPT than randomly expected. Nevertheless, a score of 0.39 for the main criterion indicated only fair inter-rater reliability, considerably lower than the conventional standard of 0.7 for adequate reliability.
Background:
The Catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT) represents the key enzyme in catecholamine degradation. Recent studies suggest that the COMT rs4680 polymorphism is associated with the response to endogenous and exogenous catecholamines. There are, however, conflicting data regarding the COMT Met/Met phenotype being associated with an increased risk of acute kidney injury (AKI) after cardiac surgery. The aim of the current study is to prospectively investigate the impact of the COMT rs4680 polymorphism on the incidence of AKI in patients undergoing cardiac surgery.
Methods:
In this prospective single center cohort study consecutive patients hospitalized for elective cardiac surgery including cardiopulmonary-bypass (CPB) were screened for participation. Demographic clinical data, blood, urine and tissue samples were collected at predefined time points throughout the clinical stay. AKI was defined according to recent recommendations of the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcome (KDIGO) group. Genetic analysis was performed after patient enrolment was completed.
Results:
Between April and December 2014, 150 patients were recruited. The COMT genotypes were distributed as follows: Val/Met 48.7%, Met/Met 29.3%, Val/Val 21.3%. No significant differences were found for demography, comorbidities, or operative strategy according to the underlying COMT genotype. AKI occurred in 35 patients (23.5%) of the total cohort, and no differences were evident between the COMT genotypes (20.5% Met/Met, 24.7% Val/Met, 25.0% Val/Val, p = 0.66). There were also no differences in the post-operative period, including ICU or in-hospital stay.
Conclusions:
We did not find statistically significant variations in the risk for postoperative AKI, length of ICU or in-hospital stay according to the underlying COMT genotype.