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This thesis comprises three essays that study the impact of trade unions on occupational health and safety (OHS). The first essay proposes a theoretical model that highlights the crucial role that unions have played throughout history in making workplaces safer. Firms traditionally oppose better health standards. Workplace safety is costly for firms but increases the average health of workers and thereby the aggregate labour supply. A laissez-faire approach in which firms set safety standards is suboptimal as workers are not fully informed of health risks associated with their jobs. Safety standards set by better-informed trade unions are output and welfare increasing. The second essay extends the model to a two-country world consisting of the capital-rich "North" and the capital-poor "South". The North has trade unions that set high OHS standards. There are no unions in the South and OHS standards are low. Trade between these two countries can imply a reduction in safety standards in the North, lowering the positive welfare effects of trade. Moreover, when trade unions are also established in the South, northern OHS standards might be further reduced. The third essay studies the impact of unions on OHS from an empirical perspective. It focuses on one component of OHS: occupational injuries. A literature summary including 25 empirical studies shows that most studies associate unions with less fatal occupational injuries. This is in perfect line with the anecdotal evidence and the basic model from the first essay. However, the literature summary also shows that most empirical studies associate unions with more nonfatal occupational injuries. This puzzling result has been explained in the literature by (1) lower underreporting in unionized workplaces, (2) unions being more able to organize hazardous workplaces, and (3) unionized workers preferring higher wages at the expense of better working conditions. Using individual-level panel data, this essay presents evidence against all these three explanations. However, it cannot reject the hypothesis that workers reduce their precautionary behaviour when they join a trade union. Hence, the puzzle seems to be due to a strong moral hazard effect. These empirical results suggest that the basic model from the first essay needs to be extended to account for this moral hazard effect.
This thesis analyzes the relationship between market concentration and efficiency of the market outcome in a differentiated good context from different points of view. The first chapter introduces the objectives of competition policy and antitrust authorities and outlines the importance of market concentration. Chapter 2 analyzes the relationship between social surplus and market heterogeneity in a differentiated Cournot oligopoly. Market heterogeneity is due to differently efficient firms, each of them producing one variety of a differentiated good. All firms exhibit constant but different marginal costs without fixed costs. Consumers preferences are given by standard quadratic utility originated by Dixit (1979). Since preferences are quasi-linear social surplus is the measure for Pareto-optimality. The main finding is that consumer suprlus as well as producer surplus increase with the variance of marginal costs. The third chapter analyzes the relationship between the cost structure and market concentration measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index. Market concentration increases with the variance of marginal costs as well as the mean of marginal costs. Chapter four analyzes welfare implications of present antitrust enforcement policy on basis of the same theoretical model. European as well as the US Merger Guidelines presume a negative impact of market concentration on the competitiveness of the market and, therefore, on the efficiency of the market outcome. The results of the previous chapters indicate that this assumption is false. The main finding is that post-merger joint profit of the insider increase with the size of the merger. Moreover, there is a negative relationship between the size of the merger and efficiency of the market outcome. Present antitrust enforcement policy increases the disparity of output levels and enforces the removal of the least efficient firm of the market. The welfare gains can be traced back on these two effects. Therefore, neither a minimum of market concentration nor a maximum of product diversity is necessarily welfare enhancing even in absence of fixed costs.
This thesis deals with the economics of innovation. In a general introduction we illustrate how several aspects of competition policy are linked to firms' innovation incentives. In three individual essays we analyze more specific issues. The first essay deals with interdependencies of mergers and innovation incentives. This is particularly relevant as both topics are central elements of a firm's competitive strategy. The essay focuses on the impact of mergers on innovative activity and competition in the product market. Possible inefficiencies due to organizational problems of mergers are accounted for. We show that optimal investment strategies depend on the resulting market structure and differ significantly from insider to outsider. In our linear model mergers turn out to increase social surplus. The second essay analyzes the different competitive advantages of large and small firms in innovation competition. While large firms typically have a better access to product markets, small firms often have a superior research efficiency. These distinct advantages immediately lead to the question of cooperations between firms. In our model we allow large firms to acquire small firms. In a pre-contest acquisition game large firms bid sequentially for small firms in order to combine respective advantages. Innovation competition is modeled as a patent contest. Sequential bidding allows the first large firms to bid strategically to induce a reaction of its competitor. For high efficiencies large firms prefer to acquire immediately, leading to a symmetric market structure. For low efficiencies strategic waiting of the first large firm leads to an asymmetric market structure even though the initial situation is symmetric. Furthermore, acquisitions increase the chances for successful innovation. The third essay deals with government subsidies to innovation. Government subsidies for research and development are intended to promote projects with high returns to society but too little private returns to be beneficial for private investors. Apart from the direct funding of these projects, government grants may serve as a signal of good investments for private investors. We use a simple signaling model to capture this phenomenon and allow for two types of risk classes. The agency has a preference for high risk projects as they promise high expected social returns, whereas banks prefer low risk projects with high private returns. In a setup where the subsidy can only be used to distinguish between high and low risk projects, government agency's signal is not very helpful for banks' investment decision. However, if the subsidy is accompanied by a quality signal, it may lead to increased or better selected private investments. The last chapter summarizes the main findings and presents some concluding remarks on the results of the essays.
As a consequence of the financial crisis in 2008/09, some economists have expressed doubts about the adequacy of theoretical models, especially those that claim to model financial markets and banks. Because of these doubts, some economists are following a new paradigm based on a monetary theory rather than a commodity theory. The main difference between these two views is that in the commodity theory money does not play an essential role, whereas in a money economy every transaction is settled with money. It is therefore essential to clarify whether a theory that includes money comes to other conclusions than a theory that leaves money out.
Based on this problem, the second chapter compares the conclusions from the commodity logic of the financial system - modeled by the loanable funds theory - with the monetary logic. Following the review of the conclusions, I describe three theories about banks. The so-called endogenous money creation theory, in which the central banks control the lending of banks through prices, describes our world best.
In the third chapter, I use the endogenous money creation theory for modelling the bank credit market. In this model, banks act according to profit maximization, whereby income from lending business is generated and the costs of credit default risk and refinancing costs (including regulatory requirements) are incurred. These are the determinants of the supply of credit, which meets the demand for credit on the credit market. Credit demand is determined by borrowers who borrow from banks for consumption or investment purposes. The interplay between loan supply and demand for credit results in the equilibrium loan interest rate and the equilibrium loan volume that banks grant to non-banks. The supply and demand sides interacting on the credit market are empirically estimated for Germany over the period 1999-2014 based on the theoretical model using a disequilibirum framework, showing that the determinants from the theoretical model are statistically significant.
Building on the theoretical banking model, the fourth chapter extends the model to include the bond market. In contrast to the description in the commodity theory, the bank loan market and the bond market are fundamentally different. On the one hand, banks create money according to the endogenous money creation theory. Once the money is in circulation, non-banks can redistribute it by either using it for the purchase of goods or borrowing it for longer periods. Due to the focus on the financial system in this dissertation, the case is considered in which money is lent over the longer term. The motive of the suppliers in the bond market, i.e. those who want to lend money, is similar to that of banks, driven by profit maximization. Suppliers can generate income from interest on bonds. Costs arise from the opportunity costs of holding money as deposits, the credit default of the debtor and price losses due to changes in interest rates. The logic described is based on the idea that banks create money, i.e. they are originators of money, and the money is redistributed on the bond market and thus used several times. The two markets are linked on both the supply and demand sides. On the one hand, banks refinance themselves on the bond market in order to reduce the maturity transformation resulting from lending. In addition, consumers of credit have the option of requesting either bank loans or loans on the bond market.
After the description of the theoretical framework of the financial system consisting of the banking and bond market, the fifth chapter follows the application of the model for Quantitative Easing. It should be noted here that Quantitative Easing already influences the behaviour of credit consumers and suppliers when the central bank announces it. The four major central banks (Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Federal Reserve Bank and European Central Bank) have used the unconventional instrument of buying up bonds due to the continuing recession and the already low short-term interest rates. In the theoretical model, the central bank already influences bond market rates through the announcement, resulting in decreasing risk premiums, as the central bank acts as a lender of confidence, decreasing interest expectations (at least in the short term) and decreasing long-term interest rates overall. These three hypotheses are tested using empirical methods for the Euro area.
This book produces three main results. First, from publicly available statistics, it can be inferred that the interest rate risk from on-balance sheet term transformation of banks in Germany exceeds the euro area average and is bound to increase even further. German banks push for shorter-term funding and hardly counteract the increased demand for longer-term loans. Within Germany, savings banks and cooperative banks are particularly engaged. Second, the supervisory interest rate shock scenarios are found to be increasingly detached both from the historic and the forecasted development of interest rates in Germany. In particular, German banks have been exposed to fewer and smaller adverse changes of the term structure. This increasingly limits the informative content of mere exposure measures such as the Basel interest rate coefficient when used as risk measures as is common practice in banking supervision and economic research. An impact assessment further supports the conclusion that the least that is required is a more comprehensive set of shock scenarios. Third and finally, there is a reasonable theoretical rationale and there is strong empirical evidence for banks' search for yield in interest rate risk. In addition to the established positive link between the term spread and the taking of interest rate risk by banks an additional negative link can be explained theoretically and there is significant empirical evidence for its existence and relevance. There is even a threshold of income below which banks' search for yield in interest rate risk surfaces openly.
The development of free floating exchange rates can hardly be explained by macroeconomic fundamentals as supposed by traditional economic theories. Therefore, prominent economists yet conclude that there exists an ‘exchange rate disconnect puzzle’ (see Obstfeld and Rogoff [2000]). The observable exchange rate trends are often attributed to an excessive speculative trading behavior of foreign exchange market participants. In this study we deal with psychological factors, which may be important for understanding the observable exchange rate movements. Thus, our study belongs to the new research field of behavioral economics, which considers the relevance of psychological factors in economic contexts. The main objective of behavioral economists is to develop a more realistic view of the actual human behavior in the context of economics. Therefore, behavioral economists often refer to the work of behavioral decision theorists, who introduced new concepts under the general heading of bounded rationality. Central to the concept of bounded rationality is the assumption that humans’ actual behavior deviates from the ideal of economic rationality due to at least two reasons: first, decisions are usually based on an incomplete information basis (limited information) and, second, the information processing of human beings is limited by their computational capacities (limited cognitive resources). Due to these limitations people are forced to apply simplification mechanisms in information processing. Important simplification mechanisms, which play a decisive role in the process judgment and decision making, are simple heuristics. Simple heuristics can principally be characterized as simple rules of thumb, which allow quick and efficient decisions even under a high degree of uncertainty. In this study, our aim is to analyze the relevance of simple heuristics in the context of foreign exchange markets. In our view, the decision situation in foreign exchange markets can serve as a prime example for decision situations in which simple heuristics are especially relevant as the complexity of the decision situation is very high. The study is organized as follows. In Chapter II, we deal with the exchange rate disconnect puzzle. In particular, we discuss and check the main implications of the traditional economic approach for explaining exchange rate movements. The asset market theory of exchange rate determination implies that exchange rates are mainly driven by the development of macroeconomic fundamentals. Furthermore the asset market theory assumes that foreign exchange market participants form rational expectations concerning future exchange rate developments and that exchange rates are determined in efficient markets. Overall the empirical evidence suggests that the traditional approach for explaining exchange rate changes is at odds with the data. Chapter III addresses the existence of long and persistent trends in exchange rate time series. Overall, our empirical analysis reveals that exchange rates show a clear tendency to move in long and persistent trends. Furthermore, we discuss the relevance of speculation in foreign exchange markets. With regard to the impact of speculation, economic theory states that speculation can have either a stabilizing effect or a destabilizing effect on exchange rates. At the end of Chapter III, we examine the Keynesian view on the functioning of asset markets. In Chapter IV we explore the main insights from the new research field of behavioral economics. A main building block of behavioral economics is the concept of bounded rationality first introduced by Herbert Simon [1955]. In the centre of the concept of bounded rationality is a psychological analysis of the actual human judgment and decision behavior. In Chapter IV, we discuss the concept of bounded rationality in detail and illustrate important insights of behavioral decision theories. In particular, we deal with the relevance of simple heuristics in the context of foreign exchange markets. Chapter V provides experimental and empirical evidence for the suggested relevance of simple heuristics in foreign exchange markets. In the first experiment, we deal with the human expectation formation. We compare point forecasts of the EUR/USD exchange rate surveyed from professional analysts and experimentally generated point forecasts of students for a simulated exchange rate time series. The results show that the forecasting performance of both groups differs substantially. Afterwards we analyze the nature of expectation formation of both groups in detail to reveal similarities and differences, which allow us to draw reasonable explanations for the differences in the forecasting performances. In the second experiment, we analyze the expectation formation in an experimental foreign exchange market. This approach allows us to consider the relevance of expectation feedback as individuals’ expectations directly influence the actual realization of the time series. Thus, Keynes’ predictions on the importance of conventions in asset markets can be analyzed. Overall, both experiments reveal that the human beings tend to apply simple trend heuristics, when forming their expectations about future exchange rates. In the empirical part of Chapter V we deal with the usefulness of such simple trend heuristics in real world. Only if simple trend heuristics lead to profits in the specific environment of foreign exchange markets, their application can be recommended. Thus, we analyze the profitability of simple technical analysis tools in foreign exchange markets. Finally, Chapter VI provides concluding remarks.
This dissertation studies the interrelations between housing markets and monetary policy from three different perspectives. First, it identifies housing finance specific shocks and analyzes their impact on the broader economy and, most importantly, the systematic monetary policy reaction to such mortgage sector disturbances. Second, it investigates the implications of the institutional arrangement of a currency union for the potential buildup of a housing bubble in a member country of the monetary union by, inter alia, fostering border-crossing capital flows and ultimately residential investment activity. This dissertation, third, quantifies the effects of autonomous monetary policy shifts on the macroeconomy and, in particular, on housing markets by conditioning on financial sector conditions. From a methodological perspective, the dissertation draws on time-series econometrics like vector autoregressions (VARs) or local projections models.
China’s monetary policy aims to reach two final targets: a paramount economical target (i.e. price stability) and a less important political target (i.e. economic growth). The main actor of monetary policy is the central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBC). But the PBC is a non-independent central bank. The State Council approves the goals of monetary policy. Very limited instrument independence means that interest rates cannot be set at the PBC’s discretion, and in-sufficient personal independence fails to insulate central bank officials from political influence. Monetary policy in China applies to two sets of monetary policy instruments: (i) instruments of the PBC; and (ii) non-central bank policy instruments. The instruments of the PBC include price-based indirect and quantity-based direct instruments. Non-central bank policy instruments include price and wage controls. The simultaneous usage of all these instruments leads to various distortions that ultimately prevent the interest rate channel of monetary transmission from functioning. Moreover, the strong influences of quantity-based direct instruments and non-central bank policy instruments bring into question the approach of indirect monetary policy in general. The PBC officially follows the monetary targeting approach with monetary aggregates as intermediate targets. Domestic loan growth and the exchange rate are defined as additional intermediate targets. In an in-depth analysis of the intermediate targets two main issues are primarily explored: (i) Are the intermediate targets of the Chinese monetary policy controllable? (ii) Is a sufficient relationship between these targets and the inflation rate observable? It is then shown that monetary aggregates are very difficult to control, but they have a satisfactory relationship with the inflation rate. Similarly, domestic loan growth is difficult to control – a fact largely attributed to the interest rate elasticity of loans – while there is a particularly close relationship between credit growth and the inflation rate. The exchange rate as an intermediate target can be controlled through foreign exchange market interventions; at the same time the exchange rate appears to have a significant relationship to the domestic inflation rate. Discussing the special issue of sterilizing foreign exchange inflows, the study concludes that between 2002 and 2008 not only no costs were incurred by sterilization operations, but that the central bank was actually able to realize a profit through foreign exchange market interventions. Based on this, it is concluded that the exchange rate target has not adversely affected the domestic orientation of monetary policy on the whole. The final part of the study examines whether there are any alternative monetary policy approaches that may be able to describe the policy approach in China; special focus is placed on nominal GDP targeting, the Taylor rule, and inflation targeting. A literature review reveals that the concept of nominal GDP targeting may be able to detect inflationary tendencies in the economy and, in combination with other indicators, it could be a suitable concept to assess the overall economic situation. The author calculates a Taylor rule for China from 1994 to 2008 and concludes that there is no close relationship between the PBC lending and the Taylor rate. The author then designs an augmented Taylor rule expanded to include a credit component (credit-augmented Taylor rule). The study shows that the augmented Taylor rule does not perform much better than the original one, but that it maps high inflationary periods relatively well. This is attributed to direct interventions into the credit markets, which have played a major role in combating inflationary cycles over the past decades. The analysis ends with an introduction of the concept of inflation targeting and an examination of whether this could describe monetary policy in China. It is clear that the PBC does not currently follow the inflation targeting approach, although the Chinese authorities could actually be able to influence inflation expectations effectively, not least through direct instruments such as price controls. The author notes that the PBC indeed had a good track record of fighting inflation between 1994 and 2008, and that this may now indicate a good time to think about introducing inflation targeting in China. The central conclusion of the study is that the proven gradual approach to economic and monetary reforms in China is reaching its limit. To break the vicious cycle that relies on the continuous use of quantity-based instruments to compensate for the ineffective price-based instruments – which in turn arises from the simultaneous use of both types of instruments – a complete shift away from quantity-based instruments is needed. Only then the approach of indirect monetary policy, which was officially introduced in 1998, could come into full play.
This thesis is about composite-based structural equation modeling. Structural equation modeling in general can be used to model both theoretical concepts and their relations to one another. In traditional factor-based structural equation modeling, these theoretical concepts are modeled as common factors, i.e., as latent variables which explain the covariance structure of their observed variables. In contrast, in composite-based structural equation modeling, the theoretical concepts can be modeled both as common factors and as composites, i.e., as linear combinations of observed variables that convey all the information between their observed variables and all other variables in the model. This thesis presents some methodological advancements in the field of composite-based structural equation modeling. In all, this thesis is made up of seven chapters. Chapter 1 provides an overview of the underlying model, as well as explicating the meaning of the term composite-based structural equation modeling. Chapter 2 gives guidelines on how to perform Monte Carlo simulations in the statistic software R using the package “cSEM” with various estimators in the context of composite-based structural equation modeling. These guidelines are illustrated by an example simulation study that investigates the finite sample behavior of partial least squares path modeling (PLS-PM) and consistent partial least squares (PLSc) estimates, particularly regarding the consequences of sample correlations between measurement errors on statistical inference. The third Chapter presents estimators of composite-based structural equation modeling that are robust in responding to outlier distortion. For this purpose, estimators of composite-based structural equation modeling, PLS-PM and PLSc, are adapted. Unlike the original estimators, these adjustments can avoid distortion that could arise from random outliers in samples, as is demonstrated through a simulation study. Chapter 4 presents an approach to performing predictions based on models estimated with ordinal partial least squares and ordinal consistent partial least squares. Here, the observed variables lie on an ordinal categorical scale which is explicitly taken into account in both estimation and prediction. The prediction performance is evaluated by means of a simulation study. In addition, the chapter gives guidelines on how to perform such predictions using the R package “cSEM”. This is demonstrated by means of an empirical example. Chapter 5 introduces confirmatory composite analysis (CCA) for research in “Human Development”. Using CCA, composite models can be estimated and assessed. This chapter uses the Henseler-Ogasawara specification for composite models, allowing, for example, the maximum likelihood method to be used for parameter estimation. Since the maximum likelihood estimator based on the Henseler-Ogasawara specification has limitations, Chapter 6 presents another specification of the composite model by means of which composite models can be estimated with the maximum likelihood method. The results of this maximum likelihood estimator are compared with those of PLS-PM, thus showing that this maximum likelihood estimator gives valid results even in finite samples. The last chapter, Chapter 7, gives an overview of the development and different strands of composite-based structural equation modeling. Additionally, here I examine the contribution the previous chapters make to the wider distribution of composite-based structural equation modeling.