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Climate change assessment in Southeast Asia and implications for agricultural production in Vietnam
(2011)
For many years, the study of climatic changes and variations has become the main objective of climatic research, as has been appreciated in the IPCC's reports and several publications regarding climatic evolution on different space-time scales. Since the 80's, many research groups have generated the extensive database from which the analysis of temperature, precipitation and other climatic parameters has been performed on a global scale (Jones et al., 1986; Hansen and Lebedeff, 1987, 1988; Vinnikov et al., 1987, 1990). The most important result of these research projects is the evidence of global warming during the 20th century, especially in the last two decades. However, numerous challenges still exist about the structure and dimension of the climatic change on a considerable scale. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out studies on a local and regional scale that allow for a more precise evaluation of the global warming phenomenon. A statistical analysis approach was developed to identify systematic differences between large-scale climatic variable from the General Circulation Models (GCM), NCEP, CRU re-analysis data set and climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation data). Models are able to satisfactorily reproduce the spatial patterns of the regional temperature and precipitation field. The response of the climate system to various emission scenario simulated by the GCM was used to analyze and predict the local climate change. The main objective of this study is to analysis the time evolution of the annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation during the 21st century and in order to contribute to our knowledge of temperature and precipitation trends over the century on a regional scale, not only in Southeast Asia but also in Vietnam; the study focuses to develop a dynamical – statistical model describing the relationship between the major climate variation and agricultural production in Vietnam. This study will be an important contribution to the present-day assessment of climate change impacts in the low latitudes. Regional scenarios of climate change, including both rainfall and mean temperature were then used to assess the impact of climate change on crop production in the region in order to evaluate the vulnerability of the system to global warming. Climate change has adverse impacts on the socio - economic development of all nations. But the degree of the impact will vary across nations. It is expected that changes in the earth's climate will impact on developing countries like Vietnam, in particular, hardest because their economies are strongly dependent on crude forms of natural resources and their economic structure is less flexible to adjust to such drastic changes. In Chapter 1: Introduction and background I describe in general terms climate, climate change, climate change model with benefits and problems. Chapter 2: methodology discusses the methods including interpolation, validation, clustering, correlation and regression which were applied in the study. Chapter 3 and chapter 4 describe the database and study area. The most important is chapter 5 Results. The last is chapter 6 Conclusion and outlook followed by the reference list and an appendix.
I. Nowadays, tropical landscapes experience large-scale land use intensification and land conversion driven by increasing demand for resourses. Due to the continuously high demand for tropical timber and politically intended step increase in palm oil production, multiple rounds of logging and subsequent conversion to oil palm plantations became a regionally wide-spread land conversion pattern in Southeast Asia. Although many tree species and some animals are highly threatened by logging, a great number of species groups, such as birds or mammals, have been shown to persist in logged forests. Accordingly, many ecosystem services, such as dung removal, seed dispersal or the activity of scavengers, are functionally maintained in logged forests. In contrast, oil palm plantations have been shown to not only dramatically alter the species composition and reduce biodiversity, but also curtail many crucial biotic and abiotic ecosystem functions. The focus of this dissertation was to investigate the response of anuran species richness and community composition to logging and conversion to oil palm plantation in northern Borneo (chapter II). I analysed the diet of various frog species and their change with habitat degradation. Furthermore, I assessed the shift in the trophic position of the anuran community as well as the response of anuran phylogenetic, dietary, and functional diversity to logging and conversion to oil palm plantations (chapter III). Finally, the resilience of the predator-prey interaction between an ant-specialist toad and its ant prey was analysed using shifts in species-level interactions (chapter IV).
II. This part of the study compares the species richness, relative abundance and community composition of stream anuran assemblages among primary forests, repeatedly logged forests and oil palm plantations. I used a highly standardised sampling setup applying transect-based sampling. Surprisingly, most of the anuran species native to primary forests were able to survive in logged forest streams. In contrast, on average only one third of the forest species richness was found in oil palm plantation streams. However, a high percentage of canopy cover above the plantation streams was able to mitigate this loss substantially. This study demonstrates the high conservation value of logged forests for Southeast Asian anurans. In contrast, the conversion to oil palm plantations leads to a dramatic decline of forest species. However, they have a mainly unused potential to contribute to the protection of parts of the regional anuran biodiversity if conservation-oriented management options are implemented.
III. In this part, I analysed the shifts in trophic position and multiple diversity layers of Southeast Asian stream-dependent anuran species across a gradient of disturbance from primary forest through intensively logged forest to oil palm plantation. For this purpose, I identified the diet composition of 59 anuran species by means of stomach flushing. Furthermore, I use diet composition of frog species as well as species traits to calculate dietary and functional diversity, respectively. I found that the trophic position of the entire anuran community is elevated in heavily disturbed habitats. Furthermore, species diversity, phylogenetic species variation, dietary diversity, and functional diversity were reduced. However, beyond the effect of the decreased species richness, only phylogenetic species variability and functional diversity were significantly impacted by land conversion, indicating a non-random loss of phylogenetic groups and functionally unique species. Overall, the observed changes to species interactions and functional composition suggest a greatly modified role of anurans in altered habitats and major foodweb reorganisation. Such far-reaching changes to the way species groups interact are likely to threaten local biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in natural and particularly modified habitats. However, I could also show, that small-scale habitat quality, provided by riparian reserves, is able to mitigate the negative consequences of land conversion considerably.
IV. Here I assess how logging of rain forest and conversion to oil palm plantations affect the populations of the ant-specialist giant river toad (Phrynoidis juxtaspera), and availability and composition of its ant prey. I measured canopy cover as an estimate for the degree of disturbance. I found that toad abundance decreased with increasing disturbance. At the same time, ant community composition was altered, and local ground-foraging ant species richness increased with disturbance. However, for a given amount of canopy cover, primary forest supported more ant species than altered habitats. Despite these changes, composition of ants consumed by toads was only weakly affected by habitat change, with the exception of the invasive yellow crazy ant (Anoplolepis gracilipes), which was positively selected in oil palm plantations. This suggests that predator-prey interactions can be mostly maintained with habitat disturbance despite shifts in community composition, and even that some predators are capable of exploiting new prey sources in novel ecosystems.
V. I could show that anuran diversity and their trophic interaction is negatively impacted by logging and in particular by conversion to oil palm plantations. From species richness and community composition, my study expanded to phylogenetic, dietary and functional diversity. Furthermore, I investigated the interaction of a particular toad species with its preferred prey (ants), on species level. This increasing degree of detail in my study provided comprehensive results, beyond the detail of many related studies. Overall, conservation of the remaining forest in Southeast Asia is urgently required to protect anuran biodiversity and their trophic interactions.