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Forest systems provide crucial ecosystem functions to our environment, such as balancing carbon stocks and influencing the local, regional and global climate. A trend towards an increasing frequency of climate change induced extreme weather events, including drought, is hereby a major challenge for forest management. Within this context, the application of remote sensing data provides a powerful means for fast, operational and inexpensive investigations over large spatial scales and time. This study was dedicated to explore the potential of satellite data in combination with harmonic analyses for quantifying the vegetation response to drought events in German forests. The harmonic modelling method was compared with a z-score standardization approach and correlated against both, meteorological and topographical data. Optical satellite imagery from Landsat and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) was used in combination with three commonly applied vegetation indices. Highest correlation scores based on the harmonic modelling technique were computed for the 6th harmonic degree. MODIS imagery in combination with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) generated hereby best results for measuring spectral response to drought conditions. Strongest correlation between remote sensing data and meteorological measures were observed for soil moisture and the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI). Furthermore, forests regions over sandy soils with pine as the dominant tree type were identified to be particularly vulnerable to drought. In addition, topographical analyses suggested mitigated drought affects along hill slopes. While the proposed approaches provide valuable information about vegetation dynamics as a response to meteorological weather conditions, standardized in-situ measurements over larger spatial scales and related to drought quantification are required for further in-depth quality assessment of the used methods and data.
This study examines the relationship between variations of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and black carbon (BC) at 550 nm aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the Western Cape province (WC). Variations of the positive (negative) phase of the SAM are found to be related to regional circulation types (CTs) in southern Africa, associated with suppressed (enhanced) westerly wind over the WC through the southward (northward) migration of Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude cyclones. The CTs related to positive (negative) SAM anomalies induce stable (unstable) atmospheric conditions over the southwestern regions of the WC, especially during the austral winter and autumn seasons. Through the control of CTs, positive (negative) SAM phases tend to contribute to the build-up (dispersion and dilution) of BC in the study region because they imply dry (wet) conditions which favor the build-up (washing out) of pollutant particles in the atmosphere. Indeed, recent years with an above-average frequency of CTs related to positive (negative) SAM anomalies are associated with a high (low) BC AOD over southwesternmost Africa.
Sacred water canals or lakes, which provided water for all kinds of purification rites and other activities, were very specific and important features of temples in ancient Egypt. In addition to the longer-known textual record, preliminary geoarchaeological surveys have recently provided evidence of a sacred canal at the Temple of Bastet at Bubastis. In order to further explore the location, shape, and course of this canal and to find evidence of the existence of a second waterway, also described by Herodotus, 34 drillings and five 2D geoelectrical measurements were carried out in 2019 and 2020 near the temple. The drillings and 2D ERT surveying revealed loamy to clayey deposits with a thickness of up to five meters, most likely deposited in a very low energy fluvial system (i.e., a canal), allowing the reconstruction of two separate sacred canals both north and south of the Temple of Bastet. In addition to the course of the canals, the width of about 30 m fits Herodotus’ description of the sacred waterways. The presence of numerous artefacts proved the anthropogenic use of the ancient canals, which were presumably connected to the Nile via a tributary or canal located west or northwest of Bubastis.
Background
Breast cancer (BC), which is most common in elderly women, requires a multidisciplinary and continuous approach to care. With demographic changes, the number of patients with chronic diseases such as BC will increase. This trend will especially hit rural areas, where the majority of the elderly live, in terms of comprehensive health care.
Methods
Accessibility to several cancer facilities in Bavaria, Germany, was analyzed with a geographic information system. Facilities were identified from the national BC guideline and from 31 participants in a proof‐of‐concept study from the Breast Cancer Care for Patients With Metastatic Disease registry. The timeframe for accessibility was defined as 30 or 60 minutes for all population points. The collection of address information was performed with different sources (eg, a physician registry). Routine data from the German Census 2011 and the population‐based Cancer Registry of Bavaria were linked at the district level.
Results
Females from urban areas (n = 2,938,991 [ie, total of females living in urban areas]) had a higher chance for predefined accessibility to the majority of analyzed facilities in comparison with females from rural areas (n = 3,385,813 [ie, total number of females living in rural areas]) with an odds ratio (OR) of 9.0 for cancer information counselling, an OR of 17.2 for a university hospital, and an OR of 7.2 for a psycho‐oncologist. For (inpatient) rehabilitation centers (OR, 0.2) and genetic counselling (OR, 0.3), women from urban areas had lower odds of accessibility within 30 or 60 minutes.
Conclusions
Disparities in accessibility between rural and urban areas exist in Bavaria. The identification of underserved areas can help to inform policymakers about disparities in comprehensive health care. Future strategies are needed to deliver high‐quality health care to all inhabitants, regardless of residence.
Park−People Relationships: The Socioeconomic Monitoring of National Parks in Bavaria, Germany
(2021)
Questions about park–people relationships and the understanding and handling of the conflicts that may result from the creation and management of national parks in the surrounding area are prerequisites for both successful park management and sustainable rural tourism development. This paper analyzes the roles that research may play in relation to park–people relationships in the context of the two oldest German national parks located in Bavaria. The different fields of action of national parks are used to identify the potential for conflict, using detailed case studies from the Bavarian Forest and Berchtesgaden National Parks using quantitative population surveys carried out in 2018. The overall attitude towards both national parks is overwhelmingly positive, with trust towards park administrations and the perceived economic benefits from rural tourism being the attitudes most strongly correlated to the overall level of park–people relationships. Nevertheless, some points of contention still exist, like the ecological integrity approach towards strict nature conservation and related landscape changes (e.g., deadwood cover). A comparison over time shows in both cases that the spatial proximity to the protected area negatively influences people’s attitudes towards the parks, but less so than in the past. Recommendations for national park management include communicating proactively and with greater transparency with locals and decision-makers, to identify conflicts earlier and, where possible, to eliminate them. Furthermore, developing a standardized method to monitor park–people relationships in Germany is a must and would benefit integrated approaches in research and management based on conservation social science.
Biological soil crusts (BSCs) are thin microbiological vegetation layers that naturally develop in unfavorable higher plant conditions (i.e., low precipitation rates and high temperatures) in global drylands. They consist of poikilohydric organisms capable of adjusting their metabolic activities depending on the water availability. However, they, and with them, their ecosystem functions, are endangered by climate change and land-use intensification. Remote sensing (RS)-based studies estimated the BSC cover in global drylands through various multispectral indices, and few of them correlated the BSCs’ activity response to rainfall. However, the allocation of BSCs is not limited to drylands only as there are areas beyond where smaller patches have developed under intense human impact and frequent disturbance. Yet, those areas were not addressed in RS-based studies, raising the question of whether the methods developed in extensive drylands can be transferred easily. Our temperate climate study area, the ‘Lieberoser Heide’ in northeastern Germany, is home to the country’s largest BSC-covered area. We applied a Random Forest (RF) classification model incorporating multispectral Sentinel-2 (S2) data, indices derived from them, and topographic information to spatiotemporally map the BSC cover for the first time in Central Europe. We further monitored the BSC response to rainfall events over a period of around five years (June 2015 to end of December 2020). Therefore, we combined datasets of gridded NDVI as a measure of photosynthetic activity with daily precipitation data and conducted a change detection analysis. With an overall accuracy of 98.9%, our classification proved satisfactory. Detected changes in BSC activity between dry and wet conditions were found to be significant. Our study emphasizes a high transferability of established methods from extensive drylands to BSC-covered areas in the temperate climate. Therefore, we consider our study to provide essential impulses so that RS-based biocrust mapping in the future will be applied beyond the global drylands.
This study investigates circulation types (CTs) in Africa, south of the equator, that are related to wet and dry conditions in the Western Cape, the statistical relationship between the selected CTs and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and changes in the frequency of occurrence of the CTs related to the SAM under the ssp585 scenario. Obliquely rotated principal component analysis applied to sea level pressure (SLP) was used to classify CTs in Africa, south of the equator. Three CTs were found to have a high probability of being associated with wet days in the Western Cape, and four CTs were equally found to have a high probability of being associated with dry days in the Western Cape. Generally, the dry/wet CTs feature the southward/northward track of the mid-latitude cyclone, adjacent to South Africa; anti-cyclonic/cyclonic relative vorticity, and poleward/equatorward track of westerlies, south of South Africa. One of the selected wet CTs was significantly related to variations of the SAM. Years with an above-average SAM index correlated with the below-average frequency of occurrences of the wet CT. The results suggest that through the dynamics of the CT, the SAM might control the rainfall variability of the Western Cape. Under the ssp585 scenario, the analyzed climate models indicated a possible decrease in the frequency of occurrence of the aforementioned wet CT associated with cyclonic activity in the mid-latitudes, and an increase in the frequency of the occurrence of CT associated with enhanced SLP at mid-latitudes.
Strategies in Times of Pandemic Crisis — Retailers and Regional Resilience in Würzburg, Germany
(2021)
Research on the COVID-19 crisis and its implications on regional resilience is still in its infancy. To understand resilience on its aggregate level it is important to identify (non)resilient actions of individual actors who comprise regions. As the retail sector among others represents an important factor in an urban regions recovery, we focus on the resilience of (textile) retailers within the city of Würzburg in Germany to the COVID-19 pandemic. To address the identified research gap, this paper applies the concept of resilience. Firstly, conducting expert interviews, the individual (textile) retailers’ level and their strategies in coping with the crisis is considered. Secondly, conducting a contextual analysis of the German city of Würzburg, we wish to contribute to the discussion of how the resilience of a region is influenced inter alia by actors. Our study finds three main strategies on the individual level, with retailers: (1) intending to “bounce back” to a pre-crisis state, (2) reorganising existing practices, as well as (3) closing stores and winding up business. As at the time of research, no conclusions regarding long-term impacts and resilience are possible, the results are limited. Nevertheless, detailed analysis of retailers’ strategies contributes to a better understanding of regional resilience.
The detrimental impacts of climate variability on water, agriculture, and food resources in East Africa underscore the importance of reliable seasonal climate prediction. To overcome this difficulty RARIMAE method were evolved. Applications RARIMAE in the literature shows that amalgamating different methods can be an efficient and effective way to improve the forecasts of time series under consideration. With these motivations, attempt have been made to develop a multiple linear regression model (MLR) and a RARIMAE models for forecasting seasonal rainfall in east Africa under the following objectives:
1. To develop MLR model for seasonal rainfall prediction in East Africa.
2. To develop a RARIMAE model for seasonal rainfall prediction in East Africa.
3. Comparison of model's efficiency under consideration
In order to achieve the above objectives, the monthly precipitation data covering the period from 1949 to 2000 was obtained from Climate Research Unit (CRU). Next to that, the first differenced climate indices were used as predictors.
In the first part of this study, the analyses of the rainfall fluctuation in whole Central- East Africa region which span over a longitude of 15 degrees East to 55 degrees East and a latitude of 15 degrees South to 15 degrees North was done by the help of maps. For models’ comparison, the R-squared values for the MLR model are subtracted from the R-squared values of RARIMAE model. The results show positive values which indicates that R-squared is improved by RARIMAE model. On the other side, the root mean square errors (RMSE) values of the RARIMAE model are subtracted from the RMSE values of the MLR model and the results show negative value which indicates that RMSE is reduced by RARIMAE model for training and testing datasets.
For the second part of this study, the area which is considered covers a longitude of 31.5 degrees East to 41 degrees East and a latitude of 3.5 degrees South to 0.5 degrees South. This region covers Central-East of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), north of Burundi, south of Uganda, Rwanda, north of Tanzania and south of Kenya. Considering a model constructed based on the average rainfall time series in this region, the long rainfall season counts the nine months lead of the first principal component of Indian sea level pressure (SLP_PC19) and the nine months lead of Dipole Mode Index (DMI_LR9) as selected predictors for both statistical and predictive model. On the other side, the short rainfall season counts the three months lead of the first principal component of Indian sea surface temperature (SST_PC13) and the three months lead of Southern Oscillation Index (SOI_SR3) as predictors for predictive model. For short rainfall season statistical model SAOD current time series (SAOD_SR0) was added on the two predictors in predictive model. By applying a MLR model it is shown that the forecast can explain 27.4% of the total variation and has a RMSE of 74.2mm/season for long rainfall season while for the RARIMAE the forecast explains 53.6% of the total variation and has a RMSE of 59.4mm/season. By applying a MLR model it is shown that the forecast can explain 22.8% of the total variation and has a RMSE of 106.1 mm/season for short rainfall season predictive model while for the RARIMAE the forecast explains 55.1% of the total variation and has a RMSE of 81.1 mm/season.
From such comparison, a significant rise in R-squared, a decrease of RMSE values were observed in RARIMAE models for both short rainfall and long rainfall season averaged time series. In terms of reliability, RARIMAE outperformed its MLR counterparts with better efficiency and accuracy. Therefore, whenever the data suffer from autocorrelation, we can go for MLR with ARIMA error, the ARIMA error part is more to correct the autocorrelation thereby improving the variance and productiveness of the model.
The natural cyclical development of palsas makes it difficult to use visible signs of decay as reference points for environmental change. Thus, to determine the actual development stage of a palsa, investigations of the internal structure are crucial. Our study presents 2‐D and 3‐D electrical resistivity imaging (ERI) and 2‐D ground‐penetrating radar (GPR) results, measurements of surface and subsurface temperatures, and of the soil matric potential from Orravatnsrústir Palsa Site in Central Iceland. By a joint interpretation of the results, we deduce the internal structure (i.e., thickness of thaw zone and permafrost, ice/water content) of five palsas of different size and shape. The results differentiate between initial and mature development stages and show that palsas of different development stages can exist in close proximity. While internal characteristics indicate undisturbed development of four palsas, one palsa shows indications of environmental change. Our study shows the value of the multimethod geophysical approach and introduces measurements of the soil matric potential as a promising method to assess the current state of the subsurface.
The Antarctic Ice Sheet stores ~91% of the global ice volume which is equivalent to a sea-level rise of 58.3 meters. Recent disintegration events of ice shelves and retreating glaciers along the Antarctic Peninsula and West Antarctica indicate the current vulnerable state of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Glacier tongues and ice shelves create a safety band around Antarctica with buttressing effects on ice discharge. Current decreases in glacier and ice shelf extent reduce the effective buttressing forces and increase ice discharge of grounded ice. The consequence is a higher contribution to sea-level rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. So far, it is unresolved which proportion of Antarctic glacier retreat can be attributed to climate change and which part to the natural cycle of growth and decay in the lifetime of a glacier. The quantitative assessment of the magnitude, spatial extent, distribution, and dynamics of circum-Antarctic glacier and ice shelf retreat is of utmost importance to monitor Antarctica’s weakening safety band. In remote areas like Antarctica, earth observation provides optimal properties for large-scale mapping and monitoring of glaciers and ice shelves. Nowadays, the variety of available satellite sensors, technical advancements regarding spatial resolution and revisit times, as well as open satellite data archives create an ideal basis for monitoring calving front change. A systematic review conducted within this thesis revealed major gaps in the availability of glacier and ice shelf front position measurements despite the improved satellite data availability. The previously limited availability of satellite imagery and the time-consuming manual delineation of calving fronts did neither allow a circum-Antarctic assessment of glacier retreat nor the assessment of intra-annual changes in glacier front position. To advance the understanding of Antarctic glacier front change, this thesis presents a novel automated approach for calving front extraction and explores drivers of glacier retreat.
A comprehensive review of existing methods for glacier front extraction ascertained the lack of a fully automatic approach for large-scale monitoring of Antarctic calving fronts using radar imagery. Similar backscatter characteristics of different ice types, seasonally changing backscatter values, multi-year sea ice, and mélange made it challenging to implement an automated approach with traditional image processing techniques. Therefore, the present abundance of satellite data is best exploited by integrating recent developments in big data and artificial intelligence (AI) research to derive circum-Antarctic calving front dynamics. In the context of this thesis, the novel AI-based framework “AntarcticLINES” (Antarctic Glacier and Ice Shelf Front Time Series) was created which provides a fully automated processing chain for calving front extraction from Sentinel-1 imagery. Open access Sentinel-1 radar imagery is an ideal data source for monitoring current and future changes in the Antarctic coastline with revisit times of less than six days and all-weather imaging capabilities. The developed processing chain includes the pre-processing of dual-polarized Sentinel-1 imagery for machine learning applications. 38 Sentinel-1 scenes were used to train the deep learning architecture U-Net for image segmentation. The trained weights of the neural network can be used to segment Sentinel-1 scenes into land ice and ocean. Additional post-processing ensures even more accurate results by including morphological filtering before extracting the final coastline. A comprehensive accuracy assessment has proven the correct extraction of the coastline. On average, the automatically extracted coastline deviates by 2-3 pixels (93 m) from a manual delineation. This accuracy is in range with deviations between manually delineated coastlines from different experts.
For the first time, the fully automated framework AntarcticLINES enabled the extraction of intra-annual glacier front fluctuations to assess seasonal variations in calving front change. Thereby, for example, an increased calving frequency of Pine Island Glacier and a beginning disintegration of Glenzer Glacier were revealed. Besides, the extraction of the entire Antarctic coastline for 2018 highlighted the large-scale applicability of the developed approach. Accurate results for entire Antarctica were derived except for the Western Antarctic Peninsula where training imagery was not sufficient and should be included in future studies.
Furthermore, this dissertation presents an unprecedented record of circum-Antarctic calving front change over the last two decades. The newly extracted coastline for 2018 was compared to previous coastline products from 2009 and 1997. This revealed that the Antarctic Ice Sheet shrank 29,618±1193 km2 in extent between 1997-2008 and gained an area of 7,108±1029 km2 between 2009-2018. Glacier retreat concentrated along the Antarctic Peninsula and West Antarctica. The only East Antarctic coastal sector primarily experiencing calving front retreat was Wilkes Land in 2009-2018. Finally, potential drivers of circum-Antarctic glacier retreat were identified by combining data on glacier front change with changes in climate variables. It was found that strengthening westerlies, snowmelt, rising sea surface temperatures, and decreasing sea ice cover forced glacier retreat over the last two decades. Relative changes in mean air temperature could not be identified as a driver for glacier retreat and further investigations on extreme events in air temperature are necessary to assess the effect of atmospheric forcing on frontal retreat. The strengthening of all identified drivers was closely connected to positive phases of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). With increasing greenhouse gases and ozone depletion, positive phases of SAM will occur more often and force glacier retreat even further in the future.
Within this thesis, a comprehensive review on existing Antarctic glacier and ice shelf front studies was conducted revealing major gaps in Antarctic calving front records. Therefore, a fully automated processing chain for glacier and ice shelf front extraction was implemented to track circum-Antarctic calving front fluctuations on an intra-annual basis. The large-scale applicability was certified by presenting two decades of circum-Antarctic calving front change. In combination with climate variables, drivers of recent glacier retreat were identified. In the future, the presented framework AntarcticLINES will greatly contribute to the constant monitoring of the Antarctic coastline under the pressure of a changing climate.
Pre‐Klondikean oxidation prepared the ground for Broken Hill‐type mineralization in South Africa
(2021)
New Cu isotope data obtained on chalcopyrite from the Black Mountain and the Broken Hill deposits in the medium‐ to high‐grade metamorphic Aggeneys‐Gamsberg ore district (South Africa) require a revision of our understanding of the genesis of metamorphic Broken Hill‐type massive sulphide deposits. Chalcopyrite from both deposits revealed unusually wide ranges in δ\(^{65}\)Cu (−2.41 to 2.84‰ NIST 976 standard) in combination with distinctly positive mean values (0.27 and 0.94‰, respectively). This is interpreted to reflect derivation from various silicate and oxide precursor minerals in which Cu occurred in higher oxidation states. Together with the observation of a typical supergene base metal distribution within the deposits and their spatial association with an unconformity only meters above the ore horizon, our new data are best explained by supergene oxidation of originally possibly SEDEX deposits prior to metamorphic sulphide formation, between the Okiepian (1,210–1,180 Ma) and Klondikean (1,040–1,020 Ma) orogenic events.
Climate change and associated Arctic amplification cause a degradation of permafrost which in turn has major implications for the environment. The potential turnover of frozen ground from a carbon sink to a carbon source, eroding coastlines, landslides, amplified surface deformation and endangerment of human infrastructure are some of the consequences connected with thawing permafrost. Satellite remote sensing is hereby a powerful tool to identify and monitor these features and processes on a spatially explicit, cheap, operational, long-term basis and up to circum-Arctic scale. By filtering after a selection of relevant keywords, a total of 325 articles from 30 international journals published during the last two decades were analyzed based on study location, spatio-
temporal resolution of applied remote sensing data, platform, sensor combination and studied environmental focus for a comprehensive overview of past achievements, current efforts, together with future challenges and opportunities. The temporal development of publication frequency, utilized platforms/sensors and the addressed environmental topic is thereby highlighted. The total
number of publications more than doubled since 2015. Distinct geographical study hot spots were revealed, while at the same time large portions of the continuous permafrost zone are still only sparsely covered by satellite remote sensing investigations. Moreover, studies related to Arctic greenhouse gas emissions in the context of permafrost degradation appear heavily underrepresented.
New tools (e.g., Google Earth Engine (GEE)), methodologies (e.g., deep learning or data fusion etc.)and satellite data (e.g., the Methane Remote Sensing LiDAR Mission (Merlin) and the Sentinel-fleet)will thereby enable future studies to further investigate the distribution of permafrost, its thermal state and its implications on the environment such as thermokarst features and greenhouse gas emission rates on increasingly larger spatial and temporal scales.