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Background
A basic requirement for artificial intelligence (AI)–based image analysis systems, which are to be integrated into clinical practice, is a high robustness. Minor changes in how those images are acquired, for example, during routine skin cancer screening, should not change the diagnosis of such assistance systems.
Objective
To quantify to what extent minor image perturbations affect the convolutional neural network (CNN)–mediated skin lesion classification and to evaluate three possible solutions for this problem (additional data augmentation, test-time augmentation, anti-aliasing).
Methods
We trained three commonly used CNN architectures to differentiate between dermoscopic melanoma and nevus images. Subsequently, their performance and susceptibility to minor changes (‘brittleness’) was tested on two distinct test sets with multiple images per lesion. For the first set, image changes, such as rotations or zooms, were generated artificially. The second set contained natural changes that stemmed from multiple photographs taken of the same lesions.
Results
All architectures exhibited brittleness on the artificial and natural test set. The three reviewed methods were able to decrease brittleness to varying degrees while still maintaining performance. The observed improvement was greater for the artificial than for the natural test set, where enhancements were minor.
Conclusions
Minor image changes, relatively inconspicuous for humans, can have an effect on the robustness of CNNs differentiating skin lesions. By the methods tested here, this effect can be reduced, but not fully eliminated. Thus, further research to sustain the performance of AI classifiers is needed to facilitate the translation of such systems into the clinic.
Objectives
Open-access cancer imaging datasets have become integral for evaluating novel AI approaches in radiology. However, their use in quantitative analysis with radiomics features presents unique challenges, such as incomplete documentation, low visibility, non-uniform data formats, data inhomogeneity, and complex preprocessing. These issues may cause problems with reproducibility and standardization in radiomics studies.
Methods
We systematically reviewed imaging datasets with public copyright licenses, published up to March 2023 across four large online cancer imaging archives. We included only datasets with tomographic images (CT, MRI, or PET), segmentations, and clinical annotations, specifically identifying those suitable for radiomics research. Reproducible preprocessing and feature extraction were performed for each dataset to enable their easy reuse.
Results
We discovered 29 datasets with corresponding segmentations and labels in the form of health outcomes, tumor pathology, staging, imaging-based scores, genetic markers, or repeated imaging. We compiled a repository encompassing 10,354 patients and 49,515 scans. Of the 29 datasets, 15 were licensed under Creative Commons licenses, allowing both non-commercial and commercial usage and redistribution, while others featured custom or restricted licenses. Studies spanned from the early 1990s to 2021, with the majority concluding after 2013. Seven different formats were used for the imaging data. Preprocessing and feature extraction were successfully performed for each dataset.
Conclusion
RadiomicsHub is a comprehensive public repository with radiomics features derived from a systematic review of public cancer imaging datasets. By converting all datasets to a standardized format and ensuring reproducible and traceable processing, RadiomicsHub addresses key reproducibility and standardization challenges in radiomics.
Critical relevance statement
This study critically addresses the challenges associated with locating, preprocessing, and extracting quantitative features from open-access datasets, to facilitate more robust and reliable evaluations of radiomics models.
Key points
- Through a systematic review, we identified 29 cancer imaging datasets suitable for radiomics research.
- A public repository with collection overview and radiomics features, encompassing 10,354 patients and 49,515 scans, was compiled.
- Most datasets can be shared, used, and built upon freely under a Creative Commons license.
- All 29 identified datasets have been converted into a common format to enable reproducible radiomics feature extraction.
Variability of gene expression due to stochasticity of transcription or variation of extrinsic signals, termed biological noise, is a potential driving force of cellular differentiation. Utilizing single-cell RNA-sequencing, we develop VarID2 for the quantification of biological noise at single-cell resolution. VarID2 reveals enhanced nuclear versus cytoplasmic noise, and distinct regulatory modes stratified by correlation between noise, expression, and chromatin accessibility. Noise levels are minimal in murine hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) and increase during differentiation and ageing. Differential noise identifies myeloid-biased Dlk1+ long-term HSCs in aged mice with enhanced quiescence and self-renewal capacity. VarID2 reveals noise dynamics invisible to conventional single-cell transcriptome analysis.
Highlights
• Brain connectivity states identified by cofluctuation strength.
• CMEP as new method to robustly predict human traits from brain imaging data.
• Network-identifying connectivity ‘events’ are not predictive of cognitive ability.
• Sixteen temporally independent fMRI time frames allow for significant prediction.
• Neuroimaging-based assessment of cognitive ability requires sufficient scan lengths.
Abstract
Human functional brain connectivity can be temporally decomposed into states of high and low cofluctuation, defined as coactivation of brain regions over time. Rare states of particularly high cofluctuation have been shown to reflect fundamentals of intrinsic functional network architecture and to be highly subject-specific. However, it is unclear whether such network-defining states also contribute to individual variations in cognitive abilities – which strongly rely on the interactions among distributed brain regions. By introducing CMEP, a new eigenvector-based prediction framework, we show that as few as 16 temporally separated time frames (< 1.5% of 10 min resting-state fMRI) can significantly predict individual differences in intelligence (N = 263, p < .001). Against previous expectations, individual's network-defining time frames of particularly high cofluctuation do not predict intelligence. Multiple functional brain networks contribute to the prediction, and all results replicate in an independent sample (N = 831). Our results suggest that although fundamentals of person-specific functional connectomes can be derived from few time frames of highest connectivity, temporally distributed information is necessary to extract information about cognitive abilities. This information is not restricted to specific connectivity states, like network-defining high-cofluctuation states, but rather reflected across the entire length of the brain connectivity time series.
Background
Colorectal cancer is a leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. The best method to prevent CRC is a colonoscopy. However, not all colon polyps have the risk of becoming cancerous. Therefore, polyps are classified using different classification systems. After the classification, further treatment and procedures are based on the classification of the polyp. Nevertheless, classification is not easy. Therefore, we suggest two novel automated classifications system assisting gastroenterologists in classifying polyps based on the NICE and Paris classification.
Methods
We build two classification systems. One is classifying polyps based on their shape (Paris). The other classifies polyps based on their texture and surface patterns (NICE). A two-step process for the Paris classification is introduced: First, detecting and cropping the polyp on the image, and secondly, classifying the polyp based on the cropped area with a transformer network. For the NICE classification, we design a few-shot learning algorithm based on the Deep Metric Learning approach. The algorithm creates an embedding space for polyps, which allows classification from a few examples to account for the data scarcity of NICE annotated images in our database.
Results
For the Paris classification, we achieve an accuracy of 89.35 %, surpassing all papers in the literature and establishing a new state-of-the-art and baseline accuracy for other publications on a public data set. For the NICE classification, we achieve a competitive accuracy of 81.13 % and demonstrate thereby the viability of the few-shot learning paradigm in polyp classification in data-scarce environments. Additionally, we show different ablations of the algorithms. Finally, we further elaborate on the explainability of the system by showing heat maps of the neural network explaining neural activations.
Conclusion
Overall we introduce two polyp classification systems to assist gastroenterologists. We achieve state-of-the-art performance in the Paris classification and demonstrate the viability of the few-shot learning paradigm in the NICE classification, addressing the prevalent data scarcity issues faced in medical machine learning.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, the novel coronavirus had an impact not only on public health but also on the mental health of the population. Public sentiment on mental health and depression is often captured only in small, survey-based studies, while work based on Twitter data often only looks at the period during the pandemic and does not make comparisons with the pre-pandemic situation. We collected tweets that included the hashtags #MentalHealth and #Depression from before and during the pandemic (8.5 months each). We used LDA (Latent Dirichlet Allocation) for topic modeling and LIWC, VADER, and NRC for sentiment analysis. We used three machine-learning classifiers to seek evidence regarding an automatically detectable change in tweets before vs. during the pandemic: (1) based on TF-IDF values, (2) based on the values from the sentiment libraries, (3) based on tweet content (deep-learning BERT classifier). Topic modeling revealed that Twitter users who explicitly used the hashtags #Depression and especially #MentalHealth did so to raise awareness. We observed an overall positive sentiment, and in tough times such as during the COVID-19 pandemic, tweets with #MentalHealth were often associated with gratitude. Among the three classification approaches, the BERT classifier showed the best performance, with an accuracy of 81% for #MentalHealth and 79% for #Depression. Although the data may have come from users familiar with mental health, these findings can help gauge public sentiment on the topic. The combination of (1) sentiment analysis, (2) topic modeling, and (3) tweet classification with machine learning proved useful in gaining comprehensive insight into public sentiment and could be applied to other data sources and topics.
Bioimages frequently exhibit low signal-to-noise ratios due to experimental conditions, specimen characteristics, and imaging trade-offs. Reliable segmentation of such ambiguous images is difficult and laborious. Here we introduce deepflash2, a deep learning-enabled segmentation tool for bioimage analysis. The tool addresses typical challenges that may arise during the training, evaluation, and application of deep learning models on ambiguous data. The tool’s training and evaluation pipeline uses multiple expert annotations and deep model ensembles to achieve accurate results. The application pipeline supports various use-cases for expert annotations and includes a quality assurance mechanism in the form of uncertainty measures. Benchmarked against other tools, deepflash2 offers both high predictive accuracy and efficient computational resource usage. The tool is built upon established deep learning libraries and enables sharing of trained model ensembles with the research community. deepflash2 aims to simplify the integration of deep learning into bioimage analysis projects while improving accuracy and reliability.
Background
Medical resource management can be improved by assessing the likelihood of prolonged length of stay (LOS) for head and neck cancer surgery patients. The objective of this study was to develop predictive models that could be used to determine whether a patient's LOS after cancer surgery falls within the normal range of the cohort.
Methods
We conducted a retrospective analysis of a dataset consisting of 300 consecutive patients who underwent head and neck cancer surgery between 2017 and 2022 at a single university medical center. Prolonged LOS was defined as LOS exceeding the 75th percentile of the cohort. Feature importance analysis was performed to evaluate the most important predictors for prolonged LOS. We then constructed 7 machine learning and deep learning algorithms for the prediction modeling of prolonged LOS.
Results
The algorithms reached accuracy values of 75.40 (radial basis function neural network) to 97.92 (Random Trees) for the training set and 64.90 (multilayer perceptron neural network) to 84.14 (Random Trees) for the testing set. The leading parameters predicting prolonged LOS were operation time, ischemia time, the graft used, the ASA score, the intensive care stay, and the pathological stages. The results revealed that patients who had a higher number of harvested lymph nodes (LN) had a lower probability of recurrence but also a greater LOS. However, patients with prolonged LOS were also at greater risk of recurrence, particularly when fewer (LN) were extracted. Further, LOS was more strongly correlated with the overall number of extracted lymph nodes than with the number of positive lymph nodes or the ratio of positive to overall extracted lymph nodes, indicating that particularly unnecessary lymph node extraction might be associated with prolonged LOS.
Conclusions
The results emphasize the need for a closer follow-up of patients who experience prolonged LOS. Prospective trials are warranted to validate the present results.
Machine learning techniques are excellent to analyze expression data from single cells. These techniques impact all fields ranging from cell annotation and clustering to signature identification. The presented framework evaluates gene selection sets how far they optimally separate defined phenotypes or cell groups. This innovation overcomes the present limitation to objectively and correctly identify a small gene set of high information content regarding separating phenotypes for which corresponding code scripts are provided. The small but meaningful subset of the original genes (or feature space) facilitates human interpretability of the differences of the phenotypes including those found by machine learning results and may even turn correlations between genes and phenotypes into a causal explanation. For the feature selection task, the principal feature analysis is utilized which reduces redundant information while selecting genes that carry the information for separating the phenotypes. In this context, the presented framework shows explainability of unsupervised learning as it reveals cell-type specific signatures. Apart from a Seurat preprocessing tool and the PFA script, the pipeline uses mutual information to balance accuracy and size of the gene set if desired. A validation part to evaluate the gene selection for their information content regarding the separation of the phenotypes is provided as well, binary and multiclass classification of 3 or 4 groups are studied. Results from different single-cell data are presented. In each, only about ten out of more than 30000 genes are identified as carrying the relevant information. The code is provided in a GitHub repository at https://github.com/AC-PHD/Seurat_PFA_pipeline.
Improved wall temperature prediction for the LUMEN rocket combustion chamber with neural networks
(2023)
Accurate calculations of the heat transfer and the resulting maximum wall temperature are essential for the optimal design of reliable and efficient regenerative cooling systems. However, predicting the heat transfer of supercritical methane flowing in cooling channels of a regeneratively cooled rocket combustor presents a significant challenge. High-fidelity CFD calculations provide sufficient accuracy but are computationally too expensive to be used within elaborate design optimization routines. In a previous work it has been shown that a surrogate model based on neural networks is able to predict the maximum wall temperature along straight cooling channels with convincing precision when trained with data from CFD simulations for simple cooling channel segments. In this paper, the methodology is extended to cooling channels with curvature. The predictions of the extended model are tested against CFD simulations with different boundary conditions for the representative LUMEN combustor contour with varying geometries and heat flux densities. The high accuracy of the extended model’s predictions, suggests that it will be a valuable tool for designing and analyzing regenerative cooling systems with greater efficiency and effectiveness.
Gait disturbances are common manifestations of Parkinson’s disease (PD), with unmet therapeutic needs. Inertial measurement units (IMUs) are capable of monitoring gait, but they lack neurophysiological information that may be crucial for studying gait disturbances in these patients. Here, we present a machine learning approach to approximate IMU angular velocity profiles and subsequently gait events using electromyographic (EMG) channels during overground walking in patients with PD. We recorded six parkinsonian patients while they walked for at least three minutes. Patient-agnostic regression models were trained on temporally embedded EMG time series of different combinations of up to five leg muscles bilaterally (i.e., tibialis anterior, soleus, gastrocnemius medialis, gastrocnemius lateralis, and vastus lateralis). Gait events could be detected with high temporal precision (median displacement of <50 ms), low numbers of missed events (<2%), and next to no false-positive event detections (<0.1%). Swing and stance phases could thus be determined with high fidelity (median F1-score of ~0.9). Interestingly, the best performance was obtained using as few as two EMG probes placed on the left and right vastus lateralis. Our results demonstrate the practical utility of the proposed EMG-based system for gait event prediction, which allows the simultaneous acquisition of an electromyographic signal to be performed. This gait analysis approach has the potential to make additional measurement devices such as IMUs and force plates less essential, thereby reducing financial and preparation overheads and discomfort factors in gait studies.
Artificial intelligence (AI) has already arrived in many areas of our lives and, because of the increasing availability of computing power, can now be used for complex tasks in medicine and dentistry. This is reflected by an exponential increase in scientific publications aiming to integrate AI into everyday clinical routines. Applications of AI in orthodontics are already manifold and range from the identification of anatomical/pathological structures or reference points in imaging to the support of complex decision-making in orthodontic treatment planning. The aim of this article is to give the reader an overview of the current state of the art regarding applications of AI in orthodontics and to provide a perspective for the use of such AI solutions in clinical routine. For this purpose, we present various use cases for AI in orthodontics, for which research is already available. Considering the current scientific progress, it is not unreasonable to assume that AI will become an integral part of orthodontic diagnostics and treatment planning in the near future. Although AI will equally likely not be able to replace the knowledge and experience of human experts in the not-too-distant future, it probably will be able to support practitioners, thus serving as a quality-assuring component in orthodontic patient care.
Artificial intelligence (AI) is predicted to play an increasingly important role in perioperative medicine in the very near future. However, little is known about what anesthesiologists know and think about AI in this context. This is important because the successful introduction of new technologies depends on the understanding and cooperation of end users. We sought to investigate how much anesthesiologists know about AI and what they think about the introduction of AI-based technologies into the clinical setting. In order to better understand what anesthesiologists think of AI, we recruited 21 anesthesiologists from 2 university hospitals for face-to-face structured interviews. The interview transcripts were subdivided sentence-by-sentence into discrete statements, and statements were then grouped into key themes. Subsequently, a survey of closed questions based on these themes was sent to 70 anesthesiologists from 3 university hospitals for rating. In the interviews, the base level of knowledge of AI was good at 86 of 90 statements (96%), although awareness of the potential applications of AI in anesthesia was poor at only 7 of 42 statements (17%). Regarding the implementation of AI in anesthesia, statements were split roughly evenly between pros (46 of 105, 44%) and cons (59 of 105, 56%). Interviewees considered that AI could usefully be used in diverse tasks such as risk stratification, the prediction of vital sign changes, or as a treatment guide. The validity of these themes was probed in a follow-up survey of 70 anesthesiologists with a response rate of 70%, which confirmed an overall positive view of AI in this group. Anesthesiologists hold a range of opinions, both positive and negative, regarding the application of AI in their field of work. Survey-based studies do not always uncover the full breadth of nuance of opinion amongst clinicians. Engagement with specific concerns, both technical and ethical, will prove important as this technology moves from research to the clinic.
Ever-growing data availability combined with rapid progress in analytics has laid the foundation for the emergence of business process analytics. Organizations strive to leverage predictive process analytics to obtain insights. However, current implementations are designed to deal with homogeneous data. Consequently, there is limited practical use in an organization with heterogeneous data sources. The paper proposes a method for predictive end-to-end enterprise process network monitoring leveraging multi-headed deep neural networks to overcome this limitation. A case study performed with a medium-sized German manufacturing company highlights the method’s utility for organizations.
Künstliche Intelligenz (KI) dringt vermehrt in sensible Bereiche des alltäglichen menschlichen Lebens ein. Es werden nicht mehr nur noch einfache Entscheidungen durch intelligente Systeme getroffen, sondern zunehmend auch komplexe Entscheidungen. So entscheiden z. B. intelligente Systeme, ob Bewerber in ein Unternehmen eingestellt werden sollen oder nicht. Oftmals kann die zugrundeliegende Entscheidungsfindung nur schwer nachvollzogen werden und ungerechtfertigte Entscheidungen können dadurch unerkannt bleiben, weshalb die Implementierung einer solchen KI auch häufig als sogenannte Blackbox bezeichnet wird. Folglich steigt die Bedrohung, durch unfaire und diskriminierende Entscheidungen einer KI benachteiligt behandelt zu werden. Resultieren diese Verzerrungen aus menschlichen Handlungen und Denkmustern spricht man von einer kognitiven Verzerrung oder einem kognitiven Bias. Aufgrund der Neuigkeit dieser Thematik ist jedoch bisher nicht ersichtlich, welche verschiedenen kognitiven Bias innerhalb eines KI-Projektes auftreten können. Ziel dieses Beitrages ist es, anhand einer strukturierten Literaturanalyse, eine gesamtheitliche Darstellung zu ermöglichen. Die gewonnenen Erkenntnisse werden anhand des in der Praxis weit verbreiten Cross-Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (CRISP-DM) Modell aufgearbeitet und klassifiziert. Diese Betrachtung zeigt, dass der menschliche Einfluss auf eine KI in jeder Entwicklungsphase des Modells gegeben ist und es daher wichtig ist „mensch-ähnlichen“ Bias in einer KI explizit zu untersuchen.
(1) Background: C-X-C Motif Chemokine Receptor 4 (CXCR4) and Fibroblast Activation Protein Alpha (FAP) are promising theranostic targets. However, it is unclear whether CXCR4 and FAP positivity mark distinct microenvironments, especially in solid tumors. (2) Methods: Using Random Forest (RF) analysis, we searched for entity-independent mRNA and microRNA signatures related to CXCR4 and FAP overexpression in our pan-cancer cohort from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database — representing n = 9242 specimens from 29 tumor entities. CXCR4- and FAP-positive samples were assessed via StringDB cluster analysis, EnrichR, Metascape, and Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA). Findings were validated via correlation analyses in n = 1541 tumor samples. TIMER2.0 analyzed the association of CXCR4 / FAP expression and infiltration levels of immune-related cells. (3) Results: We identified entity-independent CXCR4 and FAP gene signatures representative for the majority of solid cancers. While CXCR4 positivity marked an immune-related microenvironment, FAP overexpression highlighted an angiogenesis-associated niche. TIMER2.0 analysis confirmed characteristic infiltration levels of CD8+ cells for CXCR4-positive tumors and endothelial cells for FAP-positive tumors. (4) Conclusions: CXCR4- and FAP-directed PET imaging could provide a non-invasive decision aid for entity-agnostic treatment of microenvironment in solid malignancies. Moreover, this machine learning workflow can easily be transferred towards other theranostic targets.
An approach to aerodynamically optimizing cycling posture and reducing drag in an Ironman (IM) event was elaborated. Therefore, four commonly used positions in cycling were investigated and simulated for a flow velocity of 10 m/s and yaw angles of 0–20° using OpenFoam-based Nabla Flow CFD simulation software software. A cyclist was scanned using an IPhone 12, and a special-purpose meshing software BLENDER was used. Significant differences were observed by changing and optimizing the cyclist’s posture. Aerodynamic drag coefficient (CdA) varies by more than a factor of 2, ranging from 0.214 to 0.450. Within a position, the CdA tends to increase slightly at yaw angles of 5–10° and decrease at higher yaw angles compared to a straight head wind, except for the time trial (TT) position. The results were applied to the IM Hawaii bike course (180 km), estimating a constant power output of 300 W. Including the wind distributions, two different bike split models for performance prediction were applied. Significant time saving of roughly 1 h was found. Finally, a machine learning approach to deduce 3D triangulation for specific body shapes from 2D pictures was tested.
Snow is a vital environmental parameter and dynamically responsive to climate change, particularly in mountainous regions. Snow cover can be monitored at variable spatial scales using Earth Observation (EO) data. Long-lasting remote sensing missions enable the generation of multi-decadal time series and thus the detection of long-term trends. However, there have been few attempts to use these to model future snow cover dynamics. In this study, we, therefore, explore the potential of such time series to forecast the Snow Line Elevation (SLE) in the European Alps. We generate monthly SLE time series from the entire Landsat archive (1985–2021) in 43 Alpine catchments. Positive long-term SLE change rates are detected, with the highest rates (5–8 m/y) in the Western and Central Alps. We utilize this SLE dataset to implement and evaluate seven uni-variate time series modeling and forecasting approaches. The best results were achieved by Random Forests, with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.79 and a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 258 m, Telescope (0.76, 268 m), and seasonal ARIMA (0.75, 270 m). Since the model performance varies strongly with the input data, we developed a combined forecast based on the best-performing methods in each catchment. This approach was then used to forecast the SLE for the years 2022–2029. In the majority of the catchments, the shift of the forecast median SLE level retained the sign of the long-term trend. In cases where a deviating SLE dynamic is forecast, a discussion based on the unique properties of the catchment and past SLE dynamics is required. In the future, we expect major improvements in our SLE forecasting efforts by including external predictor variables in a multi-variate modeling approach.
Predicting hypertension subtypes with machine learning using targeted metabolites and their ratios
(2022)
Hypertension is a major global health problem with high prevalence and complex associated health risks. Primary hypertension (PHT) is most common and the reasons behind primary hypertension are largely unknown. Endocrine hypertension (EHT) is another complex form of hypertension with an estimated prevalence varying from 3 to 20% depending on the population studied. It occurs due to underlying conditions associated with hormonal excess mainly related to adrenal tumours and sub-categorised: primary aldosteronism (PA), Cushing’s syndrome (CS), pheochromocytoma or functional paraganglioma (PPGL). Endocrine hypertension is often misdiagnosed as primary hypertension, causing delays in treatment for the underlying condition, reduced quality of life, and costly antihypertensive treatment that is often ineffective. This study systematically used targeted metabolomics and high-throughput machine learning methods to predict the key biomarkers in classifying and distinguishing the various subtypes of endocrine and primary hypertension. The trained models successfully classified CS from PHT and EHT from PHT with 92% specificity on the test set. The most prominent targeted metabolites and metabolite ratios for hypertension identification for different disease comparisons were C18:1, C18:2, and Orn/Arg. Sex was identified as an important feature in CS vs. PHT classification.
In the past decades, various Earth observation-based time series products have emerged, which have enabled studies and analysis of global change processes. Besides their contribution to understanding past processes, time series datasets hold enormous potential for predictive modeling and thereby meet the demands of decision makers on future scenarios. In order to further exploit these data, a novel pixel-based approach has been introduced, which is the spatio-temporal matrix (STM). The approach integrates the historical characteristics of a specific land cover at a high temporal frequency in order to interpret the spatial and temporal information for the neighborhood of a given target pixel. The provided information can be exploited with common predictive models and algorithms. In this study, this approach was utilized and evaluated for the prediction of future urban/built-settlement growth. Random forest and multi-layer perceptron were employed for the prediction. The tests have been carried out with training strategies based on a one-year and a ten-year time span for the urban agglomerations of Surat (India), Ho-Chi-Minh City (Vietnam), and Abidjan (Ivory Coast). The slope, land use, exclusion, urban, transportation, hillshade (SLEUTH) model was selected as a baseline indicator for the performance evaluation. The statistical results from the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) demonstrate a good ability of the STM to facilitate the prediction of future settlement growth and its transferability to different cities, with area under the curve (AUC) values greater than 0.85. Compared with SLEUTH, the STM-based model achieved higher AUC in all of the test cases, while being independent of the additional datasets for the restricted and the preferential development areas.