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Coal mining, an important human activity, disturbs soil organic carbon (SOC) accumulation and decomposition, eventually affecting terrestrial carbon cycling and the sustainability of human society. However, changes of SOC content and their relation with influential factors in coal mining areas remained unclear. In the study, predictive models of SOC content were developed based on field sampling and Landsat images for different land-use types (grassland, forest, farmland, and bare land) of the largest coal mining area in China (i.e., Shendong). The established models were employed to estimate SOC content across the Shendong mining area during 1990–2020, followed by an investigation into the impacts of climate change and human disturbance on SOC content by a Geo-detector. Results showed that the models produced satisfactory results (R\(^2\) > 0.69, p < 0.05), demonstrating that SOC content over a large coal mining area can be effectively assessed using remote sensing techniques. Results revealed that average SOC content in the study area rose from 5.67 gC·kg\(^{−1}\) in 1990 to 9.23 gC·kg\(^{−1}\) in 2010 and then declined to 5.31 gC·Kg\(^{−1}\) in 2020. This could be attributed to the interaction between the disturbance of soil caused by coal mining and the improvement of eco-environment by land reclamation. Spatially, the SOC content of farmland was the highest, followed by grassland, and that of bare land was the lowest. SOC accumulation was inhibited by coal mining activities, with the effect of high-intensity mining being lower than that of moderate- and low-intensity mining activities. Land use was found to be the strongest individual influencing factor for SOC content changes, while the interaction between vegetation coverage and precipitation exerted the most significant influence on the variability of SOC content. Furthermore, the influence of mining intensity combined with precipitation was 10 times higher than that of mining intensity alone.
Physicians play an important role in adapting to and mitigating the adverse health effects of the unfolding climate and ecological crises. To fully harness this potential, future physicians need to acquire knowledge, values, skills, and leadership attributes to care for patients presenting with environmental change-related conditions and to initiate and propel transformative change in healthcare and other sectors of society including, but not limited to, the decarbonization of healthcare systems, the transition to renewable energies and the transformation of transport and food systems. Despite the potential of Planetary Health Education (PHE) to support medical students in becoming agents of change, best-practice examples of mainstreaming PHE in medical curricula remain scarce both in Germany and internationally. The process of revising and updating the Medical Licensing Regulations and the National Competency-based Catalog of Learning Objectives for Medical Education in Germany provided a window of opportunity to address this implementation challenge. In this article, we describe the development and content of national Planetary Health learning objectives for Germany. We anticipate that the learning objectives will stimulate the development and implementation of innovative Planetary Health teaching, learning and exam formats in medical schools and inform similar initiatives in other health professions. The availability of Planetary Health learning objectives in other countries will provide opportunities for cross-country and interdisciplinary exchange of experiences and validation of content, thus supporting the consolidation of Planetary Health learning objectives and the improvement of PHE for all health professionals globally.
Temperature and photoperiod are important Zeitgebers for plants and pollinators to synchronize growth and reproduction with suitable environmental conditions and their mutualistic interaction partners. Global warming can disturb this temporal synchronization since interacting species may respond differently to new combinations of photoperiod and temperature under future climates, but experimental studies on the potential phenological responses of plants and pollinators are lacking. We simulated current and future combinations of temperature and photoperiod to assess effects on the overwintering and spring phenology of an early flowering plant species (Crocus sieberi) and the Western honey bee (Apis mellifera). We could show that increased mean temperatures in winter and early spring advanced the flowering phenology of C. sieberi and intensified brood rearing activity of A. mellifera but did not advance their brood rearing activity. Flowering phenology of C. sieberi also relied on photoperiod, while brood rearing activity of A. mellifera did not. The results confirm that increases in temperature can induce changes in phenological responses and suggest that photoperiod can also play a critical role in these responses, with currently unknown consequences for real-world ecosystems in a warming climate.
Contemporary climate change leads to earlier spring phenological events in Europe. In forests, in which overstory strongly regulates the microclimate beneath, it is not clear if further change equally shifts the timing of leaf unfolding for the over- and understory of main deciduous forest species, such as Fagus sylvatica L. (European beech). Furthermore, it is not known yet how this vertical phenological (mis)match — the phenological difference between overstory and understory — affects the remotely sensed satellite signal. To investigate this, we disentangled the start of season (SOS) of overstory F.sylvatica foliage from understory F. sylvatica foliage in forests, within nine quadrants of 5.8 × 5.8 km, stratified over a temperature gradient of 2.5 °C in Bavaria, southeast Germany, in the spring seasons of 2019 and 2020 using time lapse cameras and visual ground observations. We explained SOS dates and vertical phenological (mis)match by canopy temperature and compared these to Sentinel-2 derived SOS in response to canopy temperature. We found that overstory SOS advanced with higher mean April canopy temperature (visual ground observations: −2.86 days per °C; cameras: −2.57 days per °C). However, understory SOS was not significantly affected by canopy temperature. This led to an increase of vertical phenological mismatch with increased canopy temperature (visual ground observations: +3.90 days per °C; cameras: +2.52 days per °C). These results matched Sentinel-2-derived SOS responses, as pixels of higher canopy height advanced more by increased canopy temperature than pixels of lower canopy height. The results may indicate that, with further climate change, spring phenology of F. sylvatica overstory will advance more than F. sylvatica understory, leading to increased vertical phenological mismatch in temperate deciduous forests. This may have major ecological effects, but also methodological consequences for the field of remote sensing, as what the signal senses highly depends on the pixel mean canopy height and the vertical (mis)match.
Climate change assessment in Southeast Asia and implications for agricultural production in Vietnam
(2011)
For many years, the study of climatic changes and variations has become the main objective of climatic research, as has been appreciated in the IPCC's reports and several publications regarding climatic evolution on different space-time scales. Since the 80's, many research groups have generated the extensive database from which the analysis of temperature, precipitation and other climatic parameters has been performed on a global scale (Jones et al., 1986; Hansen and Lebedeff, 1987, 1988; Vinnikov et al., 1987, 1990). The most important result of these research projects is the evidence of global warming during the 20th century, especially in the last two decades. However, numerous challenges still exist about the structure and dimension of the climatic change on a considerable scale. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out studies on a local and regional scale that allow for a more precise evaluation of the global warming phenomenon. A statistical analysis approach was developed to identify systematic differences between large-scale climatic variable from the General Circulation Models (GCM), NCEP, CRU re-analysis data set and climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation data). Models are able to satisfactorily reproduce the spatial patterns of the regional temperature and precipitation field. The response of the climate system to various emission scenario simulated by the GCM was used to analyze and predict the local climate change. The main objective of this study is to analysis the time evolution of the annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation during the 21st century and in order to contribute to our knowledge of temperature and precipitation trends over the century on a regional scale, not only in Southeast Asia but also in Vietnam; the study focuses to develop a dynamical – statistical model describing the relationship between the major climate variation and agricultural production in Vietnam. This study will be an important contribution to the present-day assessment of climate change impacts in the low latitudes. Regional scenarios of climate change, including both rainfall and mean temperature were then used to assess the impact of climate change on crop production in the region in order to evaluate the vulnerability of the system to global warming. Climate change has adverse impacts on the socio - economic development of all nations. But the degree of the impact will vary across nations. It is expected that changes in the earth's climate will impact on developing countries like Vietnam, in particular, hardest because their economies are strongly dependent on crude forms of natural resources and their economic structure is less flexible to adjust to such drastic changes. In Chapter 1: Introduction and background I describe in general terms climate, climate change, climate change model with benefits and problems. Chapter 2: methodology discusses the methods including interpolation, validation, clustering, correlation and regression which were applied in the study. Chapter 3 and chapter 4 describe the database and study area. The most important is chapter 5 Results. The last is chapter 6 Conclusion and outlook followed by the reference list and an appendix.
Following natural disturbances, additional anthropogenic disturbance may alter community recovery by affecting the occurrences of species, functional groups, and evolutionary lineages. However, our understanding of whether rare, common, or dominant species, functional groups, or evolutionary lineages are most strongly affected by an additional disturbance, particularly across multiple taxa, is limited. Here, we used a generalized diversity concept based on Hill numbers to quantify the community differences of vascular plants, bryophytes, lichens, wood‐inhabiting fungi, saproxylic beetles, and birds in a storm‐disturbed, experimentally salvage logged forest. Communities of all investigated species groups showed dissimilarities between logged and unlogged plots. Most species groups showed no significant changes in dissimilarities between logged and unlogged plots over the first seven years of succession, indicating a lack of community recovery. In general, the dissimilarities of communities were mainly driven by rare species. Convergence of dissimilarities occurred more often than divergence during the early stages of succession for rare species, indicating a major role in driving decreasing taxonomic dissimilarities between logged and unlogged plots over time. Trends in species dissimilarities only partially match the trends in dissimilarities of functional groups and evolutionary lineages, with little significant changes in successional trajectories. Nevertheless, common and dominant species contributed to a convergence of dissimilarities over time in the case of the functional dissimilarities of wood‐inhabiting fungi. Our study shows that salvage logging following disturbances can alter successional trajectories in early stages of forest succession following natural disturbances. However, community changes over time may differ remarkably in different taxonomic groups and are best detected based on taxonomic, rather than functional or phylogenetic dissimilarities.
Klimawandelbedingte bzw. potenziell klimawandelbedingte Umweltmigration ist ein sehr komplexes und breites Feld. Es existiert eine Fülle von Studien, die sich in ihrer Herangehensweise unterscheiden, weshalb hier ein Systematisierungsvorschlag aufgezeigt wird. Mittels einer an den Richtlinien der Grounded Theory orientierten Analyse wurden Studien auf zentrale gemeinsame Kategorien hin untersucht und als Modell präsentiert. Dieses stellt jedoch kein abgeschlossenes System dar, sondern dient durch seine Offenheit als Gerüst, das mit Ergebnissen aus weiteren Fallstudien gefestigt werden kann.
Aim: The climate and ecological crises are considered fundamental threats to human health. Healthcare workers in general and doctors in particular can contribute as change agents in mitigation and adaptation. Planetary health education (PHE) aims to harness this potential. This study explores perspectives among stakeholders involved in PHE at German medical schools on the characteristics of high-quality PHE and compares them to existing PHE frameworks.
Methods: In 2021, we conducted a qualitative interview study with stakeholders from German medical schools involved in PHE. Three different groups were eligible: faculty members, medical students actively involved in PHE, and study deans of medical schools. Recruitment was performed through national PHE networks and snowball sampling. Thematic qualitative text analysis according to Kuckartz was used for the analysis. Results were systematically compared to three existing PHE frameworks.
Results: A total of 20 participants (13 female) from 15 different medical schools were interviewed. Participants covered a wide range of professional backgrounds and experience in PHE education. The analysis revealed ten key themes: (1) Complexity and systems thinking, (2) inter- and transdisciplinarity, (3) ethical dimension, (4) responsibility of health professionals, (5) transformative competencies including practical skills, (6) space for reflection and resilience building, (7) special role of students, (8) need for curricular integration, (9) innovative and proven didactic methods, and (10) education as a driver of innovation. Six of our themes showed substantial overlap with existing PHE frameworks. Two of our themes were only mentioned in one of the frameworks, and two others were not explicitly mentioned. Few important elements of the frameworks did not emerge from our data.
Conclusions: In the light of increased attention regarding the connections of the climate and ecological crises and health, our results can be useful for anyone working toward the integration of planetary health into medical schools' and any health professions' curricula and should be considered when designing and implementing new educational activities.
Die Arbeit untersucht den Einfluss von Nichtregierungsorganisationen (NGOs)und Wissenschaftlicher Gemeinschaften auf Internationale Regime. Ausgehend vom Kooperationsproblem in einer anarchischen Staatenwelt wird der Leistungsbeitrag der beiden nichtstaatlichen Akteure auf das Zustandekommen von Kooperation analysiert und seine schwankende Rolle im Verlauf des Regimeprozesses untersucht. Das Fallbeispiel bildet dabei das internationale Klimaschutzregime, wobei der Untersuchungszeitraum von den ersten Anfängen der Thematisierung des Klimawandels bis hin zu der in Marrakesch erreichten Ausformulierung des Kyoto-Protokolls reicht.
The 2007 flood in the Sahel: causes, characteristics and its presentation in the media and FEWS NET
(2012)
During the rainy season in 2007, reports about exceptional rains and floodings in the Sahel were published in the media, especially in August and September. Institutions and organizations like the World Food Programme (WFP) and FEWS NET put the events on the agenda and released alerts and requested help. The partly controversial picture was that most of the Sahel faced a crisis caused by widespread floodings. Our study shows that the rainy season in 2007 was exceptional with regard to rainfall amount and return periods. In many areas the event had a return period between 1 and 50 yr with high spatial heterogeneity, with the exception of the Upper Volta basin, which yielded return periods of up to 1200 yr. Despite the strong rainfall, the interpretation of satellite images show that the floods were mainly confined to lakes and river beds. However, the study also proves the difficulties in assessing the meteorological processes and the demarcation of flooded areas in satellite images without ground truthing. These facts and the somewhat vague and controversial reports in the media and FEWS NET demonstrate that it is crucial to thoroughly analyze such events at a regional and local scale involving the local population.
Projected climate changes for the 21st century may cause great uncertainties on the hydrology of a river basin. This study explored the impacts of climate change on the water balance and hydrological regime of the Jhelum River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Two downscaling methods (SDSM, Statistical Downscaling Model and LARS-WG, Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator), three Global Circulation Models (GCMs), and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for three future periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2090s) were used to assess the climate change impacts on flow regimes. The results exhibited that both downscaling methods suggested an increase in annual streamflow over the river basin. There is generally an increasing trend of winter and autumn discharge, whereas it is complicated for summer and spring to conclude if the trend is increasing or decreasing depending on the downscaling methods. Therefore, the uncertainty associated with the downscaling of climate simulation needs to consider, for the best estimate, the impact of climate change, with its uncertainty, on a particular basin. The study also resulted that water yield and evapotranspiration in the eastern part of the basin (sub-basins at high elevation) would be most affected by climate change. The outcomes of this study would be useful for providing guidance in water management and planning for the river basin under climate change.
Temporal development of communities with a focus on insects, in time series of one to four decades
(2021)
Changes and development are fundamental principles in biocenoses and can affect a multitude of ecological processes. In insect communities phenological and density changes, changes in species richness and community composition, as well as interactions between those changes, are the most important macro processes. However, climate change and other factors like habitat degradation and loss alter these processes leading to shifts and general biodiversity declines. Even though knowledge about insect decline in central Europe increased during the last decades, there are significant knowledge gaps about the development of insect communities in certain habitats and taxa. For example, insect communities in small lentic as well as in forested habitats are under-sampled and reported to be less endangered than communities in other habitats. Furthermore, the changes within habitats and taxa are additionally influenced by certain traits, like host or feeding specialization. To disentangle these influences and to increase the knowledge about the general long-term development of insect communities, comprehensive long-term monitoring studies are needed. In addition, long-term effects of conservation strategies should also be evaluated on large time scales in order to be able to decide on a scientific base which strategies are effective in promoting possibly declining taxa. Hence, this thesis also tackles the effects of an integrative conservation strategy on wood dependent beetle and fungi, beside the development of water beetle and macro moth communities over multiple decades. In Chapter 2 I present a study on the development of water beetle communities (Dytiscidae, Haliplidae, Noteridae) in 33 water bodies in Southern Germany from 1991 to 2018. Time-standardized capture per waterbody was used during three periods: between 1991 and 1995, 2007 and 2008, and 2017 and 2018. Results showed annual declines in both species number (ca. -1%) and abundance (ca. -2%). In addition, community composition shifted over time in part due to changing pH values. Hence, the recorded changes during the 28-year study period partly reflect natural succession processes. However, since also moor-related beetle species decreased significantly, it is likely that water beetles in southern Germany are also threatened by non-successional factors, including desiccation, increased nitrogen input and/or mineralization, as well as the loss of specific habitats. The results suggest, that in small to midsize lentic waterbodies, current development should aim for constant creation of new water bodies and protection of moor waterbodies in order to protect water beetle communities on a landscape scale. In Chapter 3 I present an analysis of the development of nocturnal macro moth species richness, abundance and biomass over four decades in forests of southern Germany. Two local scale data sets featuring a coppiced oak forest as well as an oak high forest were analysed separately from a regional data set representing all forest types in the temperate zone of Central Europe. At the regional scale species richness, abundance and biomass showed annual declines of ca. 1 %, 1.3 % and 1.4 %, respectively. These declines were more pronounced in plant host specialists and in dark coloured species. In contrast, species richness increased by ca. 1.5 % annually in the coppiced forest, while no significant trends were found in the high forest. In contrast to past assumptions, insect decline apparently affects also hyper diverse insect groups in forests. Since host specialists and dark coloured species were affected more heavily by the decline than other groups, habitat loss and climate change seem to be potential drivers of the observed trends. However, the positive development of species richness in the coppiced oak forest indicates that maintaining complex and diverse forest ecosystems through active management might compensate for negative trends in biodiversity. Chapter 4 features a study specifically aiming to investigate the long-term effect of deadwood enrichment as an integrative conservation strategy on saproxylic beetles and fungi in a central European beech forest at a landscape scale. A before–after control–impact design, was used to compare assemblages and gamma diversities of saproxylic organisms (beetles and fungi) in strictly protected old-growth forest areas (reserves) and previously moderately and intensively managed forest areas. Forests were sampled one year before and a decade after starting a landscape-wide strategy of dead-wood enrichment. Ten years after the start of the dead-wood enrichment, neither gamma diversities of saproxylic organisms nor species composition of beetles did reflect the previous management types anymore. However, fungal species composition still mirrored the previous management gradient. The results demonstrated that intentional enrichment of dead wood at the landscape scale can effectively restore communities of saproxylic organisms and may thus be a suitable strategy in addition to permanent strict reserves in order to protect wood dependent organisms in Europe. In this thesis I showed, that in contrast to what was assumed and partly reported so far, also water beetles in lentic water bodies and macro moths in forests decreased in species richness, abundance and biomass during the last three to four decades. In line with earlier studies, especially dark coloured species and specialists decreased more than light-coloured species and generalists. The reasons for these declines could partly be attributed to natural processes and pollution and possibly to climate change. However, further studies, especially experimental ones, will be needed to achieve a better understanding of the reasons for insect decline. Furthermore, analyses of time series data should be interpreted cautiously especially if the number of sampling years is smaller than ten years. In addition, validation techniques such as left- and right- censoring and cross validation should be used in order to proof the robustness of the analyses. However, the lack of knowledge, we are still facing today, should not prevent scientists and practitioners from applying conservation measures. In order to prove the effectiveness of such measures, long-term monitoring is crucial. Such control of success is essential for evidence based and thus adapted conservation strategies of threatened organisms.
The high diversity of insects has limited the volume of long-term community data with a high taxonomic resolution and considerable geographic replications, especially in forests. Therefore, trends and causes of changes are poorly understood. Here we analyse trends in species richness, abundance and biomass of nocturnal macro moths in three quantitative data sets collected over four decades in forests in southern Germany. Two local data sets, one from coppiced oak forests and one from high oak forests included 125K and 48K specimens from 559 and 532 species, respectively. A third regional data set, representing all forest types in the temperate zone of central Europe comprised 735K specimens from 848 species. Generalized additive mixed models revealed temporal declines in species richness (−38%), abundance (−53%) and biomass (−57%) at the regional scale. These were more pronounced in plant host specialists and in dark coloured species. In contrast, the local coppiced oak forests showed an increase, in species richness (+62%), while the high oak forests showed no clear trends. Left and right censoring as well as cross validation confirmed the robustness of the analyses, which led to four conclusions. First, the decline in insects appears in hyper diverse insect groups in forests and affects species richness, abundance and biomass. Second, the pronounced decline in host specialists suggests habitat loss as an important driver of the observed decline. Third, the more severe decline in dark species might be an indication of global warming as a potential driver. Fourth, the trends in coppiced oak forests indicate that maintaining complex and diverse forest ecosystems through active management may be a promising conservation strategy in order to counteract negative trends in biodiversity, alongside rewilding approaches.
Climate change has created potential major threats to global biodiversity. The multiple components of climate change are projected to affect all pillars of biodiversity, from genes over species to biome level. Of particular concerns are "tipping points" where the exceedance of ecosystem thresholds will possibly lead to irreversible shifts of ecosystems and their functioning. As biodiversity underlies all goods and services provided by ecosystems that are crucial for human survival and wellbeing, this paper presents potential effects of climate change on biodiversity, its plausible impacts on human society as well as the setting in addressing a global crisis. Species affected by climate change may respond in three ways: change, move or die. Local species extinctions or a rapidly affected ecosystem as a whole respectively might move toward its particular "tipping point", thereby probably depriving its services to human society and ending up in a global crisis. Urgent and appropriate actions within various scenarios of climate change impacts on biodiversity, especially in tropical regions, are needed to be considered. Foremost a multisectoral approach on biodiversity issues with broader policies, stringent strategies and programs at international, national and local levels is essential to meet the challenges of climate change impacts on biodiversity.
Satellite-derived land surface temperature dynamics in the context of global change — a review
(2023)
Satellite-derived Land Surface Temperature (LST) dynamics have been increasingly used to study various geophysical processes. This review provides an extensive overview of the applications of LST in the context of global change. By filtering a selection of relevant keywords, a total of 164 articles from 14 international journals published during the last two decades were analyzed based on study location, research topic, applied sensor, spatio-temporal resolution and scale and employed analysis methods. It was revealed that China and the USA were the most studied countries and those that had the most first author affiliations. The most prominent research topic was the Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI), while the research topics related to climate change were underrepresented. MODIS was by far the most used sensor system, followed by Landsat. A relatively small number of studies analyzed LST dynamics on a global or continental scale. The extensive use of MODIS highly determined the study periods: A majority of the studies started around the year 2000 and thus had a study period shorter than 25 years. The following suggestions were made to increase the utilization of LST time series in climate research: The prolongation of the time series by, e.g., using AVHRR LST, the better representation of LST under clouds, the comparison of LST to traditional climate change measures, such as air temperature and reanalysis variables, and the extension of the validation to heterogenous sites.
Central Europe experienced several droughts in the recent past, such as in the year 2018, which was characterized by extremely low rainfall rates and high temperatures, resulting in substantial agricultural yield losses. Time series of satellite earth observation data enable the characterization of past drought events over large temporal and spatial scales. Within this study, Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) (MOD13Q1) 250 m time series were investigated for the vegetation periods of 2000 to 2018. The spatial and temporal development of vegetation in 2018 was compared to other dry and hot years in Europe, like the drought year 2003. Temporal and spatial inter- and intra-annual patterns of EVI anomalies were analyzed for all of Germany and for its cropland, forest, and grassland areas individually. While vegetation development in spring 2018 was above average, the summer months of 2018 showed negative anomalies in a similar magnitude as in 2003, which was particularly apparent within grassland and cropland areas in Germany. In contrast, the year 2003 showed negative anomalies during the entire growing season. The spatial pattern of vegetation status in 2018 showed high regional variation, with north-eastern Germany mainly affected in June, north-western parts in July, and western Germany in August. The temporal pattern of satellite-derived EVI deviances within the study period 2000-2018 were in good agreement with crop yield statistics for Germany. The study shows that the EVI deviation of the summer months of 2018 were among the most extreme in the study period compared to other years. The spatial pattern and temporal development of vegetation condition between the drought years differ.
Climate and land-use change are key drivers of environmental degradation in the Anthropocene, but too little is known about their interactive effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Long-term data on biodiversity trends are currently lacking. Furthermore, previous ecological studies have rarely considered climate and land use in a joint design, did not achieve variable independence or lost statistical power by not covering the full range of environmental gradients.
Here, we introduce a multi-scale space-for-time study design to disentangle effects of climate and land use on biodiversity and ecosystem services. The site selection approach coupled extensive GIS-based exploration (i.e. using a Geographic information system) and correlation heatmaps with a crossed and nested design covering regional, landscape and local scales. Its implementation in Bavaria (Germany) resulted in a set of study plots that maximise the potential range and independence of environmental variables at different spatial scales.
Stratifying the state of Bavaria into five climate zones (reference period 1981–2010) and three prevailing land-use types, that is, near-natural, agriculture and urban, resulted in 60 study regions (5.8 × 5.8 km quadrants) covering a mean annual temperature gradient of 5.6–9.8°C and a spatial extent of ~310 × 310 km. Within these regions, we nested 180 study plots located in contrasting local land-use types, that is, forests, grasslands, arable land or settlement (local climate gradient 4.5–10°C). This approach achieved low correlations between climate and land use (proportional cover) at the regional and landscape scale with |r ≤ 0.33| and |r ≤ 0.29| respectively. Furthermore, using correlation heatmaps for local plot selection reduced potentially confounding relationships between landscape composition and configuration for plots located in forests, arable land and settlements.
The suggested design expands upon previous research in covering a significant range of environmental gradients and including a diversity of dominant land-use types at different scales within different climatic contexts. It allows independent assessment of the relative contribution of multi-scale climate and land use on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Understanding potential interdependencies among global change drivers is essential to develop effective restoration and mitigation strategies against biodiversity decline, especially in expectation of future climatic changes. Importantly, this study also provides a baseline for long-term ecological monitoring programs.
In recent years, the midlatitudes are characterized by more intense heatwaves in summer and sometimes severe cold spells in winter that might emanate from changes in atmospheric circulation, including synoptic‐scale and planetary wave activity in the midlatitudes. In this study, we investigate the heat and momentum exchange between the mean flow and atmospheric waves in the North Atlantic sector and adjacent continents by means of the physically consistent Eliassen–Palm flux diagnostics applied to reanalysis and forced climate model data. In the long‐term mean, momentum is transferred from the mean flow to atmospheric waves in the northwest Atlantic region, where cyclogenesis prevails. Further downstream over Europe, eddy fluxes return momentum to the mean flow, sustaining the jet stream against friction. A global climate model is able to reproduce this pattern with high accuracy. Atmospheric variability related to atmospheric wave activity is much more expressed at the intraseasonal rather than the interannual time‐scale. Over the last 40 years, reanalyses reveal a northward shift of the jet stream and a weakening of intraseasonal weather variability related to synoptic‐scale and planetary wave activity. This pertains to the winter and summer seasons, especially over central Europe, and correlates with changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation as well as regional temperature and precipitation. A very similar phenomenon is found in a climate model simulation with business‐as‐usual scenario, suggesting an anthropogenic trigger in the weakening of intraseasonal weather variability in the midlatitudes.
I. Timing is a crucial feature in organisms that live within a variable and changing environment. Complex mechanisms to measure time are wide-spread and were shown to exist in many taxa. These mechanisms are expected to provide fitness benefits by enabling organisms to anticipate environmental changes and adapt accordingly. However, very few studies have addressed the adaptive value of proper timing. The objective of this PhD-project was to investigate mechanisms and fitness consequences of timing decisions concerning colony phenology and foraging activity in the honey bee (Apis mellifera), a social insect species with a high degree of social organization and one of the most important pollinators of wild plants and crops. In chapter II, a study is presented that aimed to identify the consequences of disrupted synchrony between colony phenology and the local environment by manipulating the timing of brood onset after hibernation. In a follow-up experiment, the importance of environmental factors for the timing of brood onset was investigated to assess the potential of climate change to disrupt synchronization of colony phenology (Chapter III). Chapter IV aimed to prove for the first time that honey bees can use interval time-place learning to improve foraging activity in a variable environment. Chapter V investigates the fitness benefits of information exchange between nest mates via waggle dance communication about a resource environment that is heterogeneous in space and time.
II. In the study presented in chapter II, the importance of the timing of brood onset after hibernation as critical point in honey bee colony phenology in temperate zones was investigated. Honey bee colonies were overwintered at two climatically different sites. By translocating colonies from each site to the other in late winter, timing of brood onset was manipulated and consequently colony phenology was desynchronized with the local environment. Delaying colony phenology in respect to the local environment decreased the capability of colonies to exploit the abundant spring bloom. Early brood onset, on the other hand, increased the loads of the brood parasite Varroa destructor later in the season with negative impact on colony worker population size. This indicates a timing related trade-off and illustrates the importance of investigating effects of climate change on complex multi-trophic systems. It can be concluded that timing of brood onset in honey bees is an important fitness relevant step for colony phenology that is highly sensitive to climatic conditions in late winter. Further, phenology shifts and mismatches driven by climate change can have severe fitness consequences.
III. In chapter III, I assess the importance of the environmental factors ambient temperature and photoperiod as well as elapsed time on the timing of brood onset. Twenty-four hibernating honey bee colonies were placed into environmental chambers and allocated to different combinations of two temperature regimes and three different light regimes. Brood onset was identified non-invasively by tracking comb temperature within the winter cluster. The experiment revealed that ambient temperature plays a major role in the timing of brood onset, but the response of honey bee colonies to temperature increases is modified by photoperiod. Further, the data indicate the involvement of an internal clock. I conclude that the timing of brood onset is complex but probably highly susceptible to climate change and especially spells of warm weather in winter.
IV. In chapter IV, it was examined if honey bees are capable of interval time-place learning and if this ability improves foraging efficiency in a dynamic resource environment. In a field experiment with artificial feeders, foragers were able to learn time intervals and use this ability to anticipate time periods during which feeders were active. Further, interval time-place learning enabled foragers to increase nectar uptake rates. It was concluded that interval time-place learning can help honey bee foragers to adapt to the complex and variable temporal patterns of floral resource environments.
V. The study presented in chapter V identified the importance of the honey bee waggle dance communication for the spatiotemporal coordination of honey bee foraging activity in resource environments that can vary from day to day. Consequences of disrupting the instructional component of honey bee dance communication were investigated in eight temperate zone landscapes with different levels of spatiotemporal complexity. While nectar uptake of colonies was not affected, waggle dance communication significantly benefitted pollen harvest irrespective of landscape complexity. I suggest that this is explained by the fact that honey bees prefer to forage pollen in semi-natural habitats, which provide diverse resource species but are sparse and presumably hard to find in intensively managed agricultural landscapes. I conclude that waggle dance communication helps to ensure a sufficient and diverse pollen diet which is crucial for honey bee colony health.
VI. In my PhD-project, I could show that honey bee colonies are able to adapt their activities to a seasonally and daily changing environment, which affects resource uptake, colony development, colony health and ultimately colony fitness. Ongoing global change, however, puts timing in honey bee colonies at risk. Climate change has the potential to cause mismatches with the local resource environment. Intensivation of agricultural management with decreased resource diversity and short resource peaks in spring followed by distinctive gaps increases the probability of mismatches. Even the highly efficient foraging system of honey bees might not ensure a sufficiently diverse and healthy diet in such an environment. The global introduction of the parasitic mite V. destructor and the increased exposure to pesticides in intensively managed landscapes further degrades honey bee colony health. This might lead to reduced cognitive capabilities in workers and impact the communication and social organization in colonies, thereby undermining the ability of honey bee colonies to adapt to their environment.
The glaciers in Norway exert a strong influence on Norwegian economy and society. Unlike many glaciers elsewhere and despite ongoing climate change and warming, many of them showed renewed advances and positive net mass changes in the 1980's and 1990's, followed by rapid retreats and mass losses since 2000. This difference in behaviour may be attributed to differences and shifts in the glaciological regime - the differences in the magnitude of impacts of climatic and non-climatic geographical factors on the glacier mass.
This study investigates the influence of various atmospheric variables on mass balance changes of a selection of glaciers in Norway by means of Pearson correlation analyses and cross-validated stepwise multiple regression analyses. The analyses are carried out for three time periods (1949-2008, 1949-1988, 1989-2008) separately in order to take into consideration the possible shift in the glaciological regime in the 1980's. The atmospheric variables are constructed from ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR re-analysis datasets and include regional means of seasonal air temperature and precipitation rates and atmospheric circulation indices. The multiple regression models trained in these time periods are then applied to predictors reconstructed from the CMIP3 climate model dataset to generate an estimate for mass changes from the year 1950 to 2100. The temporal overlap of estimates and observations is used for calibration. Finally, observed atmospheric states in seasons that are characterised by a particularly positive or negative mass balance are categorised into time periods of modelled climate by the application of a Bayesian classification procedure.
The strongest influence on winter mass balance is exerted by different indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and precipitation. The correlation coefficients and explained variances determined from the multiple regression analyses reveal an East-West gradient, suggesting a weaker influence of the NAO and NAM on glaciers underlying a more continental regime. The highest correlation coefficients and explained variances were obtained for the 1989-2008 time period, which might be due to a strong and predominantly positive phase of the NAO. Multi-model ensemble means of the estimates show a mass loss for all three eastern glaciers, while the estimates for the more maritime glaciers are ambivalent. In general, the estimates show a greater sensitivity to the training time period than to the greenhouse gas emission scenarios according to which the climates were simulated. The average net mass change by the end of 2100 is negative for all glaciers except for the northern Engabreen. For many glaciers, the Bayesian classification of observed atmospheric states into time periods of modelled climate reveals a decrease in probability of atmospheric states favouring extremes in winter, and an increase in probability of atmospheric states favouring extreme mass loss in summer for the distant future (2071-2100). This pattern of probabilities for the ablation season is most pronounced for glaciers underlying a continental and intermediate regime.