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Climate change assessment in Southeast Asia and implications for agricultural production in Vietnam
(2011)
For many years, the study of climatic changes and variations has become the main objective of climatic research, as has been appreciated in the IPCC's reports and several publications regarding climatic evolution on different space-time scales. Since the 80's, many research groups have generated the extensive database from which the analysis of temperature, precipitation and other climatic parameters has been performed on a global scale (Jones et al., 1986; Hansen and Lebedeff, 1987, 1988; Vinnikov et al., 1987, 1990). The most important result of these research projects is the evidence of global warming during the 20th century, especially in the last two decades. However, numerous challenges still exist about the structure and dimension of the climatic change on a considerable scale. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out studies on a local and regional scale that allow for a more precise evaluation of the global warming phenomenon. A statistical analysis approach was developed to identify systematic differences between large-scale climatic variable from the General Circulation Models (GCM), NCEP, CRU re-analysis data set and climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation data). Models are able to satisfactorily reproduce the spatial patterns of the regional temperature and precipitation field. The response of the climate system to various emission scenario simulated by the GCM was used to analyze and predict the local climate change. The main objective of this study is to analysis the time evolution of the annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation during the 21st century and in order to contribute to our knowledge of temperature and precipitation trends over the century on a regional scale, not only in Southeast Asia but also in Vietnam; the study focuses to develop a dynamical – statistical model describing the relationship between the major climate variation and agricultural production in Vietnam. This study will be an important contribution to the present-day assessment of climate change impacts in the low latitudes. Regional scenarios of climate change, including both rainfall and mean temperature were then used to assess the impact of climate change on crop production in the region in order to evaluate the vulnerability of the system to global warming. Climate change has adverse impacts on the socio - economic development of all nations. But the degree of the impact will vary across nations. It is expected that changes in the earth's climate will impact on developing countries like Vietnam, in particular, hardest because their economies are strongly dependent on crude forms of natural resources and their economic structure is less flexible to adjust to such drastic changes. In Chapter 1: Introduction and background I describe in general terms climate, climate change, climate change model with benefits and problems. Chapter 2: methodology discusses the methods including interpolation, validation, clustering, correlation and regression which were applied in the study. Chapter 3 and chapter 4 describe the database and study area. The most important is chapter 5 Results. The last is chapter 6 Conclusion and outlook followed by the reference list and an appendix.