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Strategies in Times of Pandemic Crisis — Retailers and Regional Resilience in Würzburg, Germany
(2021)
Research on the COVID-19 crisis and its implications on regional resilience is still in its infancy. To understand resilience on its aggregate level it is important to identify (non)resilient actions of individual actors who comprise regions. As the retail sector among others represents an important factor in an urban regions recovery, we focus on the resilience of (textile) retailers within the city of Würzburg in Germany to the COVID-19 pandemic. To address the identified research gap, this paper applies the concept of resilience. Firstly, conducting expert interviews, the individual (textile) retailers’ level and their strategies in coping with the crisis is considered. Secondly, conducting a contextual analysis of the German city of Würzburg, we wish to contribute to the discussion of how the resilience of a region is influenced inter alia by actors. Our study finds three main strategies on the individual level, with retailers: (1) intending to “bounce back” to a pre-crisis state, (2) reorganising existing practices, as well as (3) closing stores and winding up business. As at the time of research, no conclusions regarding long-term impacts and resilience are possible, the results are limited. Nevertheless, detailed analysis of retailers’ strategies contributes to a better understanding of regional resilience.
Human alveolar echinococcosis (AE) is a potentially deadly disease; recent studies have shown that the endemic area of Echinococcus multilocularis, its causative agent, is larger than previously known. This disease has low prevalence and remains underreported in Europe. Emerging clinical data show that diagnostic difficulties are still common. We report on a 76-year old patient suffering from AE lesions restricted to the left lobe of the liver who underwent a curative extended left hemihepatectomy. Prior to the resection a liver biopsy under the suspicion of an atypical malignancy was performed. After the intervention he developed a pseudoaneurysm of the hepatic artery that was successfully coiled. Surprisingly, during surgery, the macroscopic appearance of the tumour revealed a growth pattern that was rather typical for cystic echinococcosis (CE), i.e., a gross tumour composed of multiple large vesicles with several centimeters in diameter. In addition, there were neither extensive adhesions nor infiltrations of the neighboring pancreas and diaphragm as was expected from previous imaging results. The unexpected diagnosis of AE was confirmed by definite histopathology, specific polymerase chain reaction and serology results. This is a rare case of unusual macroscopic presentation of AE that posed immense diagnostic challenges and had an eventful course. To our knowledge this is the first case of an autochthonous infection in this particular geographic area of Germany, the federal state of Saxony. This report may provide new hints for an expanding area of risk for AE and emphasizes the risk of complications in the scope of diagnostic procedures and the limitations of modern radiological imaging.
Diese Arbeit betrachtet das Thema ‚Besitzerwerb’ mit besonderer Berücksichtigung der Stellung der Hilfsperson – nämlich, Stellvertreter bzw. Besitzdiener - bei diesem Rechtsinstitut. Vor der eigentlichen Behandlung des Hauptthemas finden sich allgemeine Betrachtungen und Analysen des Besitzes und dessen Erwerb und die Darstellung der rechtshistorischen Entwicklung des Besitzes. Die hier behandelten Themen werden nicht nur von der Rechtsdogmatik, sondern auch von der Rechtssprechung her untersucht, wobei die Entscheidungen in einigen, bestimmten Fällen, die in der rechtswissenschaftlichen Diskussion Mustercharakter erlangt haben, und als Anknüpfungspunkt zur Entwicklung und Festigung der Rechtslehre dienen dargestellt werden. Es wird ebenso versucht klar darzustellen, inwieweit sich die Rechtsauffassung des Besitzerwerbs durch Hilfspersonen von dem traditionellen, römischgemeinrechtlichen Vorbild der Dienerschaft aus zu einer typologischen, sachverhaltsnäheren Besitzerwerbslehre hat entwickeln lassen.
Eine pentaploide Sippe aus der Pilosella macranthela-Verwandtschaft wurde in Unterfranken/Bayern entdeckt, die hier als P. macranthela subsp. sylvae-pici neu beschrieben wird. Sie wächst hauptsächlich im bayerischen Buntsandstein-Spessart und kommt mit drei kleinen, isolierten Wuchsorten auch in den Kalkgebieten des Maintals und Tauberbereichs vor. Die Wuchsform steht zwischen dem Furcata- und Laxicephala-Typus von Pilosellinen mit ober- und teils unterirdischen Ausläufern und zeigt Neigung, Horste zu bilden. Die Ober- und Unterseiten der Rosettenblätter besitzen Sternhaare. Die Korbstiele und Hüllblätter sind dicht mit dunkel gestielten Drüsenhaaren mit gelblichen Drüsenköpfen besetzt. Die seitlichen Zähne der Blütenzungen sind oft durch Einschnitte abgetrennt. Tetra- und pentaploide Zwischenarten zwischen P. macranthela subsp. sylvae-pici und P. officinarum werden als P. ottonis neu beschrieben. P. ottonis ist tetra- und pentaploid mit bis zu 7 Körben, ist an den Hüllblättern mit dunklen Stieldrüsen besetzt und ähnelt vom Habitus Formen von P. acutlifolia. Die Hüllen von P. ottonis besitzen wie die von P. macranthela subsp. sylvae-pici und P. glomerata zahlreiche, ca. 10–20 μm dicke Epidermispapillen, die stets bei P. officinarum fehlen. Heterogene P. marcanthela-Sippen (tetra- und heptaploid) kommen als Spontanhybride zwischen P. glomerata und P. officinarum auch außerhalb des Spessartgebiets vor und wurden auch ohne benachbarte P. glomerata gefunden.
Background
Haemophilus influenzae (Hi) is a Gram-negative bacterium that may cause sepsis or meningitis, treatment of which mainly includes β-lactam antibiotics. Since 2019 EUCAST breakpoints for piperacillin/tazobactam have been available. Little is known about the prevalence and mechanisms of piperacillin/tazobactam resistance in Hi.
Objectives
To provide reliable prevalence data for piperacillin/tazobactam resistance in Hi in Germany, to evaluate different antibiotic susceptibility testing methods and to examine possible resistance mechanisms.
Methods
According to EUCAST breakpoints, the MIC for piperacillin/tazobactam resistance is >0.25 mg/L. All invasive Hi in Germany from 2019 were examined by gradient agar diffusion (GAD) for piperacillin/tazobactam susceptibility. Piperacillin/tazobactam broth microdilution (BMD), piperacillin GAD on tazobactam-containing agar [piperacillin GAD on Mueller–Hinton agar with horse blood (MH-F)/tazobactam) and piperacillin/tazobactam agar dilution (AD) were used for confirmation. Phenotypic testing was complemented by ftsI sequencing.
Results
Piperacillin/tazobactam GAD resulted in 2.9% (21/726) resistant Hi. BMD did not confirm piperacillin/tazobactam resistance. Two strains were found resistant by AD, of which one was also resistant using piperacillin GAD on MH-F/tazobactam. Overall, we found two strains with a piperacillin/tazobactam MIC >0.25 mg/L in at least two different tests (0.3%). Both were β-lactamase-producing amoxicillin/clavulanate-resistant with PBP3 mutations characterized as group III-like+. Relevant PBP3 mutations occurred in six strains without phenotypic piperacillin/tazobactam resistance. These mutations suggest a reduced efficacy of β-lactam antibiotics in these isolates.
Conclusions
Piperacillin/tazobactam resistance prevalence in invasive Hi is low in Germany. Reduced susceptibility was correlated with PBP3 mutations, in particular with group III mutations.
Introduction
Detailed and up-to-date data on the epidemiology and healthcare costs of Influenza are fundamental for public health decision-making. We analyzed inpatient data on Influenza-associated hospitalizations (IAH), selected complications and risk factors, and their related direct costs for Germany during ten consecutive years.
Methods
We conducted a retrospective cost-of-illness study on patients with laboratory-confirmed IAH (ICD-10-GM code J09/J10 as primary diagnosis) by ICD-10-GM-based remote data query using the Hospital Statistics database of the German Federal Statistical Office. Clinical data and associated direct costs of hospital treatment are presented stratified by demographic and clinical variables.
Results
Between January 2010 to December 2019, 156,097 persons were hospitalized due to laboratory-confirmed Influenza (J09/J10 primary diagnosis). The annual cumulative incidence was low in 2010, 2012 and 2014 (1.3 to 3.1 hospitalizations per 100,000 persons) and high in 2013 and 2015-2019 (12.6 to 60.3). Overall direct per patient hospitalization costs were mean (SD) 3521 EUR (± 8896) and median (IQR) 1805 EUR (1502; 2694), with the highest mean costs in 2010 (mean 8965 EUR ± 26,538) and the lowest costs in 2012 (mean 2588 EUR ± 6153). Mean costs were highest in 60-69 year olds, and in 50-59, 70-79 and 40-49 year olds; they were lowest in 10-19 year olds. Increased costs were associated with conditions such as diabetes (frequency 15.0%; 3.45-fold increase compared to those without diabetes), adiposity (3.3%; 2.09-fold increase) or immune disorders (5.6%; 1.88-fold increase) and with Influenza-associated complications such as Influenza pneumonia (24.3%; 1.95-fold), bacterial pneumonia (6.3%; 3.86-fold), ARDS (1.2%; 10.90-fold increase) or sepsis (2.3%; 8.30-fold). Estimated overall costs reported for the 10-year period were 549.6 Million euros (95% CI 542.7-556.4 million euros).
Conclusion
We found that the economic burden of IAH in Germany is substantial, even when considering solely laboratory-confirmed IAH reported as primary diagnosis. The highest costs were found in the elderly, patients with certain underlying risk factors and patients who required advanced life support treatment, and median and mean costs showed considerable variations between single years. Furthermore, there was a relevant burden of disease in middle-aged adults, who are not covered by the current vaccination recommendations in Germany.
Previous research has shown that female doctoral graduates earn less than male doctoral graduates; how-ever, the determinants of this gender pay gap remain largely unexplored. Therefore, this paper investigates the determinants of the early career gender pay gap among doctoral graduates in Germany. By relying on effects on the supply and demand sides and feedback between them, I theoretically derive determinants of the gender pay gap that comprise doctoral and occupational characteristics. Using data from a representative German panel study of the 2014 doctoral graduation cohort, I analyse the gender pay gap two years after graduation. I apply linear regression on the logarithmic gross monthly earnings and Oaxaca-Blinder de-composition to examine the explanatory contribution of the determinants to the gender pay gap. The anal-yses reveal that female graduates earn 27.2 % less than male graduates two years after graduation. Male graduates being paid a premium outside academia partly drives this gender pay gap. The considered deter-minants largely explain the overall gender pay gap, the most important determinants being working hours, doctoral subject, industry, professional experience gained after graduation, company size, and academic employment. The results offer new insights on the determinants of the early career gender pay gap among doctoral graduates and thereby shed light on one dimension of gender inequalities in post-doctoral careers.
Previous research has shown that temporary employment is negatively associated with many psychological and job-related outcomes, such as well-being, health, wages, organisational commitment, and job satisfaction. Among recent doctoral graduates, the proportion of temporary contracts is particularly high. However, research on the association between contract type and job satisfaction specifically among doctoral graduates is scarce. Therefore, whether and how obtaining permanent employment affects doctoral graduates’ job satisfaction remains a notable research gap that we intend to narrow by using panel data from a recent doctoral graduation cohort and by adopting a panel research design. We examine what effect obtaining permanent employment has on doctoral graduates’ job satisfaction and whether this effect differs by labour market sector. We use panel data that are representative of the 2014 doctoral graduation cohort in Germany and their career trajectories up to five years after graduation. We apply fixed-effects regression to approximate the within-effect of obtaining a permanent employment contract on job satisfaction. The analyses indicate that obtaining permanent employment increases doctoral graduates’ job satisfaction and that this increase is not driven by time-varying confounders. We also find that doctoral graduates’ labour market sector moderates the effect: the increase in job satisfaction is highest in the academic sector and statistically significantly different from that in the private sector. Overall, this paper offers new insights into the effect of obtaining a permanent contract on the job satisfaction of recent doctoral graduates throughout their first years after graduation, when they are often employed on temporary contracts.
Hieracium rotundatum subsp. silvae-bavaricae wird als neu für die Wissenschaft beschrieben und abgebildet. Die neue Unterart gehört zu einem Formenkreis von Arten (H. rotundatum, H. transylvanicum), dessen Hauptverbreitung auf dem Balkan liegt. Die wechselvolle nomenklatorische Geschichte des Artnamens wird nachgezeichnet. Diagnostische Merkmale zur Unterscheidung der in der Wuchsform ähnlichen Arten H. murorum, H. rotundatum und H. transylvanicum werden diskutiert. Dabei wird auf die Bedeutung der Ausbildung des Grundblattzyklus besonders hingewiesen. Entgegen bisheriger Kenntnis reicht die nordwestliche Verbreitungsgrenze von H. rotundatum nun bis Südost-Bayern. Bei der Suche nach H. rotundatum konnte auch eine morphologisch auffällige Unterart von H. rotundatum nachgewiesen werden, die hier als neu beschrieben wird.
In Unterfranken/Nordbayern wurde eine gut abgegrenzte Unterart der Hieracium maculatum-Gruppe festgestellt, die auf die Hänge des Maintals zwischen Würzburg und Hasloch beschränkt ist mit einem Hot Spot (>90% des Gesamtbestandes) zwischen den Orten Thüngersheim und Retzbach. Aufgrund einiger Ähnlichkeiten mit H. glaucinum subsp. prasiophaeum (Syn.: subsp. gougetianum) wird die Unterart als H. maculatum subsp. pseudogougetianum beschrieben. Diese Subspecies wächst bevorzugt auf Muschelkalk-Schotter und beginnt bereits Mitte April zu blühen, hat weißlich behaarte Kopfhüllen mit dunklen Stieldrüsen. Die Grundblattrosette besteht aus eiförmigen bis elliptischen, gezähnten bis gesägten, oberseits kahlen, glauken und dunkel gefleckten Blättern. Die Stängel tragen 1-3(4) gestielte Laubblätter und bilden meistens lange blühende Seitenäste aus den Blattachseln. H. maculatum subsp. pseudogougetianum ist wie ein Teil der H. maculatum-Sippen tetraploid mit einem Genomgewicht (2C-Wert) von 14,5 pg und unterscheidet sich damit von der H. glaucinum-Gruppe, deren untersuchte Taxa ausnahmslos triploid sind (10,1 pg).
Alignment strategies for primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA) have changed significantly over time with a shift towards a more individualized alignment goal. At the same time, computer-assisted surgery (CAS) has gained interest for intraoperative control and accuracy in implant positioning and limb alignment. Despite the often discussed benefits and drawbacks of robotics and navigation for TKA, the routine use of these new devices on a day-to-day basis remains obscure. Therefore, nationwide hospital billing data based on the Operation Procedure Classification System (OPS) were retrieved from the Federal Statistical Office of Germany for the period from 2010 to 2021. OPS codes for primary total knee arthroplasty (OPS code: 5-822*) were further analyzed regarding the usage of computer navigation (additional OPS code: 5-988) or robotic devices (additional OPS code: 5-987). Gender and age at the time of surgery were also assessed. The results show a total of 2,226,559 primary TKAs were implanted between 2010 and 2021, of which 2,044,914 were performed conventionally (91.84% of all TKAs). A total of 170,276 TKAs were performed using navigation technique (7.65% of all TKAs) and another 11,369 TKAs were performed using robotics (0.51% of all TKAs). For the period from 2018 to 2021, a substantial increase in robot-assisted TKA (R-TKA) was observed, with an average increase rate of 84.74% per year, while the number of navigated TKAs declined (−3.67% per year). Computer-assisted surgery, and particularly robotics for TKA, are seeing growing popularity and stepwise translation into routine clinical use in Germany, with a steep increase rate of more than 80% per year since 2018. Nevertheless, the majority of TKAs are still performed using manual instrumentation, rendering conventional TKA the currently unchanged gold standard.
Medical tourism is a rapidly growing sector of economic growth and diversification. However, data on the demographics and characteristics of the traveling patients are sparse. In this study, we analyzed the common demographic properties and characteristics of the inbound medical tourists seeking orthopedic medical care in Germany for the years 2010 to 2019 compared to a domestic group. At the same time, we examined how the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak of 2020 changed the field of medical tourism in Germany. Calculations were performed using administrative hospital data provided by the Federal Statistical Department of Germany. Data were analyzed from the years 2010 to 2020. A total of six elective orthopedic surgery codes (bone biopsy, knee arthroplasty, foot surgery, osteotomy, hardware removal, and arthrodesis) were identified as key service indicators for medical tourism and further analyzed. Factors including residence, sex, year, and type of elective surgery were modeled using linear regression analysis. Age and sex distributions were compared between patients living inside Germany (DE) or outside Germany (non-DE). Between 2010 and 2020, 6,261,801 orthopedic procedures were coded for the DE group and 27,420 key procedures were identified for the non-DE group. Medical tourists were predominantly male and significantly younger than the domestic population. The linear regression analysis of the OPS codes over the past years showed a significantly different slope between the DE and non-DE groups only for the OPS code “hardware removal”. With the COVID-19 pandemic, an overall decline in performed orthopedic procedures was observed for the non-DE and the DE group. A significant reduction below the 95% prediction bands for the year 2020 could be shown for hardware removal and foot surgery (for DE), and for hardware removal, knee arthroplasty, foot surgery, and osteotomy (for non-DE). This study is the first to quantify inbound medical tourism in elective orthopedic surgery in Germany. The COVID-19 pandemic negatively affected many — but not all — areas of orthopedic surgery. It has to be seen how this negative trend will develop in the future.
Background
We undertook investigations in response to an invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) outbreak in men who have sex with men (MSM) in Berlin 2012–2013 to better understand meningococcal transmission and IMD risk in MSM.
Methods
We retrospectively searched for further IMD cases in MSM in Germany through local health departments and undertook exploratory interviews. We performed antigen sequence typing, characterized fHbp and aniA genes of strains with the outbreak finetype and reviewed epidemiologically or spatiotemporally linked cases from 2002–2014.
Results
Among the 148 IMD-cases notified from 01.01.2012–30.09.2013 in 18–59 year-old men we identified 13 MSM in 6 federal states: 11 serogroup C (MenC, all finetype C:P1.5–1,10–8:F3-6), 2 MenB. Interviews with 7 MSM revealed frequent meeting of multiple partners online or via mobile apps and illicit drug use as potential risk factors. MenC incidence was 13-fold higher in MSM than non-MSM. MenC isolates from 9/11 MSM had a novel fHbp allele 766. All C:P1.5–1,10–8:F3-6 strains from MSM versus 16/23 from non-MSM had intact aniA genes (p = 0.04). Although definitive evidence for transmission among MSM in epidemiological or spatiotemporal clusters in 2002–2014 was lacking, clusters were more frequent in men aged 20–49 years. Molecular analysis of C:P1.5–1,10–8:F3-6 strains revealed cases with intact aniA since 2007, mainly associated with fHbp361, fHbp766 and fHbp813, all involving one or more MSM.
Conclusions
MenC incidence was elevated in MSM during the study period. Multiple casual sexual contacts and illicit drug use were common in affected MSM. In all strains from MSM we detected an intact aniA gene coding for a nitrite reductase, which permits survival in microanaerobic environments and could play a role in meningococcal transmission in MSM through urogenital colonization. Furthermore, meningococcal transmission among MSM may be sustained over large areas and thus require modified spatiotemporal scanning algorithms for timely detection and control.
Background: Proportions of patients dying from the coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) vary between different countries. We report the characteristics; clinical course and outcome of patients requiring intensive care due to COVID-19 induced acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).
Methods: This is a retrospective, observational multicentre study in five German secondary or tertiary care hospitals. All patients consecutively admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) in any of the participating hospitals between March 12 and May 4, 2020 with a COVID-19 induced ARDS were included.
Results: A total of 106 ICU patients were treated for COVID-19 induced ARDS, whereas severe ARDS was present in the majority of cases. Survival of ICU treatment was 65.0%. Median duration of ICU treatment was 11 days; median duration of mechanical ventilation was 9 days. The majority of ICU treated patients (75.5%) did not receive any antiviral or anti-inflammatory therapies. Venovenous (vv) ECMO was utilized in 16.3%. ICU triage with population-level decision making was not necessary at any time. Univariate analysis associated older age, diabetes mellitus or a higher SOFA score on admission with non-survival during ICU stay.
Conclusions: A high level of care adhering to standard ARDS treatments lead to a good outcome in critically ill COVID-19 patients.
Forests in Germany cover around 11.4 million hectares and, thus, a share of 32% of Germany's surface area. Therefore, forests shape the character of the country's cultural landscape. Germany's forests fulfil a variety of functions for nature and society, and also play an important role in the context of climate levelling. Climate change, manifested via rising temperatures and current weather extremes, has a negative impact on the health and development of forests. Within the last five years, severe storms, extreme drought, and heat waves, and the subsequent mass reproduction of bark beetles have all seriously affected Germany’s forests. Facing the current dramatic extent of forest damage and the emerging long-term consequences, the effort to preserve forests in Germany, along with their diversity and productivity, is an indispensable task for the government. Several German ministries have and plan to initiate measures supporting forest health. Quantitative data is one means for sound decision-making to ensure the monitoring of the forest and to improve the monitoring of forest damage. In addition to existing forest monitoring systems, such as the federal forest inventory, the national crown condition survey, and the national forest soil inventory, systematic surveys of forest condition and vulnerability at the national scale can be expanded with the help of a satellite-based earth observation. In this review, we analysed and categorized all research studies published in the last 20 years that focus on the remote sensing of forests in Germany. For this study, 166 citation indexed research publications have been thoroughly analysed with respect to publication frequency, location of studies undertaken, spatial and temporal scale, coverage of the studies, satellite sensors employed, thematic foci of the studies, and overall outcomes, allowing us to identify major research and geoinformation product gaps.
Regional climate models (RCMs) are tools used to project future climate change at a regional scale. Despite their high horizontal resolution, RCMs are characterized by systematic biases relative to observations, which can result in unrealistic interpretations of future climate change signals. On the other hand, bias correction (BC) is a popular statistical post-processing technique applied to improve the usability of output from climate models. Like every other statistical technique, BC has its strengths and weaknesses. Hence, within the regional context of Germany, and for temperature and precipitation, this study is dedicated to the assessment of the impact of different BC techniques on the RCM output. The focuses are on the impact of BC on the RCM’s statistical characterization, and physical consistency defined as the spatiotemporal consistency between the bias-corrected variable and the simulated physical mechanisms governing the variable, as well as the correlations between the bias-corrected variable and other (simulated) climate variables. Five BC techniques were applied in adjusting the systematic biases in temperature and precipitation RCM outputs. The BC techniques are linear scaling, empirical quantile mapping, univariate quantile delta mapping, multivariate quantile delta mapping that considers inter-site dependencies, and multivariate quantile delta mapping that considers inter-variable dependencies (MBCn). The results show that each BC technique adds value in reducing the biases in the statistics of the RCM output, though the added value depends on several factors such as the temporal resolution of the data, choice of RCM, climate variable, region, and the metric used in evaluating the BC technique. Further, the raw RCMs reproduced portions of the observed modes of atmospheric circulation in Western Europe, and the observed temperature, and precipitation meteorological patterns in Germany. After the BC, generally, the spatiotemporal configurations of the simulated meteorological patterns as well as the governing large-scale mechanisms were reproduced.
However, at a more localized spatial scale for the individual meteorological patterns, the BC changed the simulated co-variability of some grids, especially for precipitation. Concerning the co-variability among the variables, a physically interpretable positive correlation was found between temperature and precipitation during boreal winter in both models and observations. For most grid boxes in the study domain and on average, the BC techniques that do not adjust inter-variable dependency did not notably change the simulated correlations between the climate variables. However, depending on the grid box, the (univariate) BC techniques tend to degrade the simulated temporal correlations between temperature and precipitation. Further, MBCn which adjusts biases in inter-variable dependency has the skill to improve the correlations between the simulated variables towards observations.
The July 2021 heavy rainfall episode in parts of Western Europe caused devastating floods, specifically in Germany. This study examines circulation types (CTs) linked to extreme precipitation in Germany. It was investigated if the classified CTs can highlight the anomaly in synoptic patterns that contributed to the unusual July 2021 heavy rainfall in Germany. The North Atlantic Oscillation was found to be the major climatic mode related to the seasonal and inter-annual variations of most of the classified CTs. On average, wet (dry) conditions in large parts of Germany can be linked to westerly (northerly) moisture fluxes. During spring and summer seasons, the mid-latitude cyclone when located over the North Sea disrupts onshore moisture transport from the North Atlantic Ocean by westerlies driven by the North Atlantic subtropical anticyclone. The CT found to have the highest probability of being associated with above-average rainfall in large part of Germany features (i) enhancement and northward track of the cyclonic system over the Mediterranean; (ii) northward track of the North Atlantic anticyclone, further displacing poleward, the mid-latitude cyclone over the North Sea, enabling band of westerly moisture fluxes to penetrate Germany; (iii) cyclonic system over the Baltic Sea coupled with northeast fluxes of moisture to Germany; (iv) and unstable atmospheric conditions over Germany. In 2021, a spike was detected in the amplitude and frequency of occurrence of the aforementioned wet CT suggesting that in addition to the nearly stationary cut-off low over central Europe, during the July flood episode, anomalies in the CT contributed to the heavy rainfall event.
This study compares the performance of three bias correction (BC) techniques in adjusting simulated precipitation estimates over Germany. The BC techniques are the multivariate quantile delta mapping (MQDM) where the grids are used as variables to incorporate the spatial dependency structure of precipitation in the bias correction; empirical quantile mapping (EQM) and, the linear scaling (LS) approach. Several metrics that include first to fourth moments and extremes characterized by the frequency of heavy wet days and return periods during boreal summer were applied to score the performance of the BC techniques. Our results indicate a strong dependency of the relative performances of the BC techniques on the choice of the regional climate model (RCM), the region, the season, and the metrics of interest. Hence, each BC technique has relative strengths and weaknesses. The LS approach performs well in adjusting the first moment but tends to fall short for higher moments and extreme precipitation during boreal summer. Depending on the season, the region and the RCM considered, there is a trade-off between the relative performances of the EQM and the MQDM in adjusting the simulated precipitation biases. However, the MQDM performs well across all considered metrics. Overall, the MQDM outperforms the EQM in improving the higher moments and in capturing the observed return level of extreme summer precipitation, averaged over Germany.
A fuzzy classification scheme that results in physically interpretable meteorological patterns associated with rainfall generation is applied to classify homogeneous regions of boreal summer rainfall anomalies in Germany. Four leading homogeneous regions are classified, representing the western, southeastern, eastern, and northern/northwestern parts of Germany with some overlap in the central parts of Germany. Variations of the sea level pressure gradient across Europe, e.g., between the continental and maritime regions, is the major phenomenon that triggers the time development of the rainfall regions by modulating wind patterns and moisture advection. Two regional climate models (REMO and CCLM4) were used to investigate the capability of climate models to reproduce the observed summer rainfall regions. Both regional climate models (RCMs) were once driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis and once by the MPI-ESM general circulation model (GCM). Overall, the RCMs exhibit good performance in terms of the regionalization of summer rainfall in Germany; though the goodness-of-match with the rainfall regions/patterns from observational data is low in some cases and the REMO model driven by MPI-ESM fails to reproduce the western homogeneous rainfall region. Under future climate change, virtually the same leading modes of summer rainfall occur, suggesting that the basic synoptic processes associated with the regional patterns remain the same over Germany. We have also assessed the added value of bias-correcting the MPI-ESM driven RCMs using a simple linear scaling approach. The bias correction does not significantly alter the identification of homogeneous rainfall regions and, hence, does not improve their goodness-of-match compared to the observed patterns, except for the one case where the original RCM output completely fails to reproduce the observed pattern. While the linear scaling method improves the basic statistics of precipitation, it does not improve the simulated meteorological patterns represented by the precipitation regimes.