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The Quality of Acute Stroke Care-an Analysis of Evidence-Based Indicators in 260 000 Patients
(2014)
Background: Stroke patients should be cared for in accordance with evidence-based guidelines. The extent of implementation of guidelines for the acute care of stroke patients in Germany has been unclear to date. Methods: The regional quality assurance projects that cooperate in the framework of the German Stroke Registers Study Group (Arbeitsgemeinschaft Deutscher Schlaganfall-Register, ADSR) collected data on the care of stroke patients in 627 hospitals in 2012. The quality of the acute hospital care of patients with stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) was assessed on the basis of 15 standardized, evidence-based quality indicators and compared across the nine participating regional quality assurance projects. Results: Data were obtained on more than 260 000 patients nationwide. Intravenous thrombolysis was performed in 59.7% of eligible ischemic stroke patients patients (range among participating projects, 49.7-63.6%). Dysphagia screening was documented in 86.2% (range, 74.8-93.1%). For the following indicators, the defined targets were not reached for all of Germany: antiaggregation within 48 hours, 93.4% (range, 86.6-96.4%); anticoagulation for atrial fibrillation, 77.6% (range, 72.4-80.1%); standardized dysphagia screening, 86.2% (range, 74.8-93.1%); oral and written information of the patients or their relatives, 86.1% (range, 75.4-91.5%). The rate of patients examined or treated by a speech therapist was in the target range. Conclusion: The defined targets were reached for most of the quality indicators. Some indicators, however, varied widely across regional quality assurance projects. This implies that the standardization of care for stroke patients in Germany has not yet been fully achieved.
Backround: In February 2021, the first formal evidence and consensus-based (S3) guidelines for the inpatient treatment of patients with COVID-19 were published in Germany and have been updated twice during 2021. The aim of the present study is to re-evaluate the dissemination pathways and strategies for ICU staff (first evaluation in December 2020 when previous versions of consensus-based guidelines (S2k) were published) and question selected aspects of guideline adherence of standard care for patients with COVID-19 in the ICU. Methods: We conducted an anonymous online survey among German intensive care staff from 11 October 2021 to 11 November 2021. We distributed the survey via e-mail in intensive care facilities and requested redirection to additional intensive care staff (snowball sampling). Results: There was a difference between the professional groups in the number, selection and qualitative assessment of information sources about COVID-19. Standard operating procedures were most frequently used by all occupational groups and received a high quality rating. Physicians preferred sources for active information search (e.g., medical journals), while nurses predominantly used passive consumable sources (e.g., every-day media). Despite differences in usage behaviour, the sources were rated similarly in terms of the quality of the information on COVID-19. The trusted organizations have not changed over time. The use of guidelines was frequently stated and highly recommended. The majority of the participants reported guideline-compliant treatment. Nevertheless, there were certain variations in the use of medication as well as the criteria chosen for discontinuing non-invasive ventilation (NIV) compared to guideline recommendations. Conclusions: An adequate external source of information for nursing staff is lacking, the usual sources of physicians are only appropriate for the minority of nursing staff. The self-reported use of guidelines is high.
The association between physical activity (PA) and variables of the perceived environment mainly originate from cross-sectional studies that introduced the idea that the environment influences the PA level of residents. However, the direction of cause and effect has not been solved with finality. The aim of this study was to investigate whether residents’ perception of their proximate environment differs depending on their level of PA in transport and recreation. We conducted a cross-sectional survey with residents of six different parts of the city of Cologne, Germany. The sample of 470 adults (52.8% females; mean age = 35.5 ± 13.8 years) filled in the Global Physical Activity Questionnaire (GPAQ), as well as the European Environmental Questionnaire ALPHA. To distinguish between residents with “low” and “high” PA, we split the samples into two on the basis of the specific median in transport- and recreation-related PA. In the “high” vs. “low” PA group of the overall sample, we noted 4%–16% more “PA favourable” environmental perceptions in seven of the 15 environmental variables. Multiple linear regression analyses were performed to investigate associations of socio-demographic correlates and transport- and recreation-related PA on the dependent variables of the environmental perception. In this case, levels of PA were significant predictors for eight of the 15 items concerning environmental perceptions. Thus, the present study introduces the idea that residents with higher levels of transport and recreational PA may perceive their environment in a more “PA-favourable” way than residents with lower levels.
Background
This study aimed 1) to provide data estimates concerning overall moderate- and vigorous-intensity physical activity (MVPA) as well as MVPA during work, transport and leisure in Germany and 2) to investigate MVPA and possible associations with socio-demographic correlates.
Methods
A cross-sectional telephone survey interviewed 2248 representative participants in the age of 18–65 years (1077 men; 42.4±13.4 years; body mass index: 25.3±4.5kg•m−2) regarding their self-reported physical activity across Germany. The Global Physical Activity Questionnaire was applied to investigate MVPA during work, transport and leisure and questions were answered concerning their demographics. MVPA was stratified by gender, age, body mass index, residential setting, educational and income level. To identify socio-demographic correlates of overall MVPA as well as in the domains, we used a series of linear regressions.
Results
52.8% of the sample achieved physical activity recommendations (53.7% men/52.1% women). Overall MVPA was highest in the age group 18–29 years (p<.05), in participants with 10 years of education (p<.05) and in participants with lowest income levels <1.500€ (p<.05). Regression analyses revealed that age, education and income were negatively associated with overall and work MVPA. Residential setting and education was positively correlated with transport MVPA, whereas income level was negatively associated with transport MVPA. Education was the only correlate for leisure MVPA with a positive association.
Conclusions
The present data underlines the importance of a comprehensive view on physical activity engagement according to the different physical activity domains and discloses a need for future physical activity interventions that consider socio-demographic variables, residential setting as well as the physical activity domain in Germany.
Treatment modalities of chronic plaque psoriasis have dramatically changed over the past ten years with a still continuing shift from inpatient to outpatient treatment. This development is mainly caused by outpatient availability of highly efficient and relatively well-tolerated systemic treatments, in particular BioLogicals. In addition, inpatient treatment is time-and cost-intense, conflicting with the actual burst of health expenses and with patient preferences. Nevertheless, inpatient treatment with dithranol and UV light still is a major mainstay of psoriasis treatment in Germany. The current study aims at comparing the total costs of inpatient treatment and outpatient follow-up to mere outpatient therapy with different modalities (topical treatment, phototherapy, classic systemic therapy or BioLogicals) over a period of 12 months. To this end, a retrospective cost-of-illness study was conducted on 120 patients treated at the University Medical Centre Mannheim between 2005 and 2006. Inpatient therapy caused significantly higher direct medical, indirect and total annual costs than outpatient treatment (13,042 (sic) versus 2,984 (sic)). Its strong influence on cost levels was confirmed by regression analysis, with total costs rising by 104.3% in case of inpatient treatment. Patients receiving BioLogicals produced the overall highest costs, whereas outpatient treatment with classic systemic antipsoriatic medications was less cost-intense than other alternatives.
Subacute sclerosing panencephalitis (SSPE) is a fatal long-term complication of measles infection. We performed an estimation of the total number of SSPE cases in Germany for the period 2003 to 2009 and calculated the risk of SSPE after an acute measles infection. SSPE cases were collected from the Surveillance Unit for Rare Paediatric Diseases in Germany and the Institute of Virology and Immunobiology at the University of Würzburg. The total number of SSPE cases was estimated by capture-recapture analysis. For the period 2003 to 2009, 31 children with SSPE who were treated at German hospitals were identified. The capture-recapture estimate was 39 cases (95% confidence interval: 29.2–48.0). The risk of developing SSPE for children contracting measles infection below 5 years of age was calculated as 1∶1700 to 1∶3300. This risk is in the same order of magnitude as the risk of a fatal acute measles infection.
This thesis analyzes the 2001-2006 labor market reforms in Germany. The aim of this work is twofold. First, an overview of the most important reform measures and the intended effects is given. Second, two specific and very fundamental amendments, namely the merging of unemployment assistance and social benefits, as well as changes in the duration of unemployment insurance benefits, are analyzed in detail to evaluate their effects on individuals and the entire economy. Using a matching model with optimal search intensity and Semi-Markov methods, the effects of these two amendments on the duration of unemployment, optimal search intensity and unemployment are analyzed.
Estimation of absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), preferably with population-specific risk charts, has become a cornerstone of CVD primary prevention. Regular recalibration of risk charts may be necessary due to decreasing CVD rates and CVD risk factor levels. The SCORE risk charts for fatal CVD risk assessment were first calibrated for Germany with 1998 risk factor level data and 1999 mortality statistics. We present an update of these risk charts based on the SCORE methodology including estimates of relative risks from SCORE, risk factor levels from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults 2008–11 (DEGS1) and official mortality statistics from 2012. Competing risks methods were applied and estimates were independently validated. Updated risk charts were calculated based on cholesterol, smoking, systolic blood pressure risk factor levels, sex and 5-year age-groups. The absolute 10-year risk estimates of fatal CVD were lower according to the updated risk charts compared to the first calibration for Germany. In a nationwide sample of 3062 adults aged 40–65 years free of major CVD from DEGS1, the mean 10-year risk of fatal CVD estimated by the updated charts was lower by 29% and the estimated proportion of high risk people (10-year risk > = 5%) by 50% compared to the older risk charts. This recalibration shows a need for regular updates of risk charts according to changes in mortality and risk factor levels in order to sustain the identification of people with a high CVD risk.
Background: Routine annual influenza vaccination is primarily recommended for all persons aged 60 and above and for people with underlying chronic conditions in Germany. Other countries have already adopted additional childhood influenza immunisation programmes. The objective of this study is to determine the potential epidemiological impact of implementing paediatric influenza vaccination using intranasally administered live-attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) in Germany.
Methods: A deterministic age-structured model is used to simulate the population-level impact of different vaccination strategies on the transmission dynamics of seasonal influenza in Germany. In our base-case analysis, we estimate the effects of adding a LAIV-based immunisation programme targeting children 2 to 17 years of age to the existing influenza vaccination policy. The data used in the model is based on published evidence complemented by expert opinion.
Results: In our model, additional vaccination of children 2 to 17 years of age with LAIV leads to the prevention of 23.9 million influenza infections and nearly 16 million symptomatic influenza cases within 10 years. This reduction in burden of disease is not restricted to children. About one third of all adult cases can indirectly be prevented by LAIV immunisation of children.
Conclusions: Our results demonstrate that vaccinating children 2-17 years of age is likely associated with a significant reduction in the burden of paediatric influenza. Furthermore, annual routine childhood vaccination against seasonal influenza is expected to decrease the incidence of influenza among adults and older people due to indirect effects of herd protection. In summary, our model provides data supporting the introduction of a paediatric influenza immunisation programme in Germany.
Central Europe experienced several droughts in the recent past, such as in the year 2018, which was characterized by extremely low rainfall rates and high temperatures, resulting in substantial agricultural yield losses. Time series of satellite earth observation data enable the characterization of past drought events over large temporal and spatial scales. Within this study, Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) (MOD13Q1) 250 m time series were investigated for the vegetation periods of 2000 to 2018. The spatial and temporal development of vegetation in 2018 was compared to other dry and hot years in Europe, like the drought year 2003. Temporal and spatial inter- and intra-annual patterns of EVI anomalies were analyzed for all of Germany and for its cropland, forest, and grassland areas individually. While vegetation development in spring 2018 was above average, the summer months of 2018 showed negative anomalies in a similar magnitude as in 2003, which was particularly apparent within grassland and cropland areas in Germany. In contrast, the year 2003 showed negative anomalies during the entire growing season. The spatial pattern of vegetation status in 2018 showed high regional variation, with north-eastern Germany mainly affected in June, north-western parts in July, and western Germany in August. The temporal pattern of satellite-derived EVI deviances within the study period 2000-2018 were in good agreement with crop yield statistics for Germany. The study shows that the EVI deviation of the summer months of 2018 were among the most extreme in the study period compared to other years. The spatial pattern and temporal development of vegetation condition between the drought years differ.
Objectives
Although the vast majority of COVID-19 cases are treated in primary care, patients' experiences during home isolation have been little studied. This study aimed to explore the experiences of patients with acute COVID-19 and to identify challenges after the initial adaptation of the German health system to the pandemic (after first infection wave from February to June 2020).
Methods
A mixed-method convergent design was used to gain a holistic insight into patients experience. The study consisted of a cross-sectional survey, open survey answers and semi-structured telephone interviews. Descriptive analysis was performed on quantitative survey answers. Between group differences were calculated to explore changes after the first infection wave. Qualitative thematic analysis was conducted on open survey answers and interviews. The results were then compared within a triangulation protocol.
Results
A total of 1100 participants from all German states were recruited by 145 general practitioners from August 2020 to April 2021, 42 additionally took part in qualitative interviews. Disease onset varied from February 2020 to April 2021. After the first infection wave, more participants were tested positive during the acute disease (88.8%; 95.2%; P < 0.001). Waiting times for tests (mean 4.5 days, SD 4.1; 2.7days, SD 2.6, P < 0.001) and test results (mean 2.4 days, SD 1.9; 1.8 days, SD 1.3, P < 0.001) decreased. Qualitative results indicated that the availability of repeated testing and antigen tests reduced insecurities, transmission and related guilt. Although personal consultations at general practices increased (6.8%; 15.5%, P < 0.001), telephone consultation remained the main mode of consultation (78.5%) and video remained insignificant (1.9%). The course of disease, the living situation and social surroundings during isolation, access to health care, personal resilience, spirituality and feelings of guilt and worries emerged as themes influencing the illness experience. Challenges were contact management and adequate provision of care during home isolation. A constant contact person within the health system helped against feelings of care deprivation, uncertainty and fear.
Conclusions
Our study highlights that home isolation of individuals with COVID-19 requires a holistic approach that considers all aspects of patient care and effective coordination between different care providers.
Background and objectives
Bullous pemphigoid (BP) is associated with neuropsychiatric disorders. Other comorbid diseases are discussed controversially. We evaluated the prevalence of comorbidity in BP patients in a representative area of Germany.
Patients and methods
Medical files of all BP patients treated at the Department of Dermatology, University Hospital Würzburg, Germany, between June 2002 and May 2013 were retrospectively reviewed. Bullous pemphigoid was diagnosed based on established criteria. For each patient, two controls were individually matched. Records were evaluated for age, sex, laboratory values, concomitant medication and comorbidity. Conditional logistic regression, multivariable regression analysis and complex regression models were performed to compare results.
Results
300 BP patients were identified and compared to 583 controls. Bullous pemphigoid was associated with neuropsychiatric disorders as well as laboratory abnormalities including leukocytosis and eosinophilia. Importantly, a highly significant association of BP with anemia (OR 2.127; 95 % CI 1.532–2.953) and renal impairment (OR 2.218; 95 % CI 1.643–2.993) was identified. No association was found with malignancy and arterial hypertension.
Conclusions
Our data revealed an increased frequency of anemia and renal impairment in BP patients. In accordance with previous studies the strong association for neuropsychiatric disorders was confirmed (p < 0.0005).
Coagulase-negative staphylococci (CoNS) are common opportunistic pathogens, but also ubiquitous human and animal commensals. Infection-associated CoNS from healthcare environments are typically characterized by pronounced antimicrobial resistance (AMR) including both methicillin- and multidrug-resistant isolates. Less is known about AMR patterns of CoNS colonizing the general population. Here we report on AMR in commensal CoNS recovered from 117 non-hospitalized volunteers in a region of Germany with a high livestock density. Among the 69 individuals colonized with CoNS, 29 had reported contacts to either companion or farm animals. CoNS were selectively cultivated from nasal swabs, followed by species definition by 16S rDNA sequencing and routine antibiotic susceptibility testing. Isolates displaying phenotypic AMR were further tested by PCR for presence of selected AMR genes. A total of 127 CoNS were isolated and Staphylococcus epidermidis (75%) was the most common CoNS species identified. Nine isolates (7%) were methicillin-resistant (MR) and carried the mecA gene, with seven individuals (10%) being colonized with at least one MR-CoNS isolate. While resistance against gentamicin, phenicols and spectinomycin was rare, high resistance rates were found against tetracycline (39%), erythromycin (33%) and fusidic acid (24%). In the majority of isolates, phenotypic resistance could be associated with corresponding AMR gene detection. Multidrug-resistance (MDR) was observed in 23% (29/127) of the isolates, with 33% (23/69) of the individuals being colonized with MDR-CoNS. The combined data suggest that MR- and MDR-CoNS are present in the community, with previous animal contact not significantly influencing the risk of becoming colonized with such isolates.
Investigating diversity gradients helps to understand biodiversity drivers and threats. However, one diversity gradient is rarely assessed, namely how plant species distribute along the depth gradient of lakes. Here, we provide the first comprehensive characterization of depth diversity gradient (DDG) of alpha, beta, and gamma species richness of submerged macrophytes across multiple lakes. We characterize the DDG for additive richness components (alpha, beta, gamma), assess environmental drivers, and address temporal change over recent years. We take advantage of yet the largest dataset of macrophyte occurrence along lake depth (274 depth transects across 28 deep lakes) as well as of physiochemical measurements (12 deep lakes from 2006 to 2017 across Bavaria), provided publicly online by the Bavarian State Office for the Environment. We found a high variability in DDG shapes across the study lakes. The DDGs for alpha and gamma richness are predominantly hump-shaped, while beta richness shows a decreasing DDG. Generalized additive mixed-effect models indicate that the depth of the maximum richness (Dmax) is influenced by light quality, light quantity, and layering depth, whereas the respective maximum alpha richness within the depth gradient (Rmax) is significantly influenced by lake area only. Most observed DDGs seem generally stable over recent years. However, for single lakes we found significant linear trends for Rmax and Dmax going into different directions. The observed hump-shaped DDGs agree with three competing hypotheses: the mid-domain effect, the mean–disturbance hypothesis, and the mean–productivity hypothesis. The DDG amplitude seems driven by lake area (thus following known species–area relationships), whereas skewness depends on physiochemical factors, mainly water transparency and layering depth. Our results provide insights for conservation strategies and for mechanistic frameworks to disentangle competing explanatory hypotheses for the DDG.
Introduction
Low-grade appendiceal mucinous neoplasms (LAMN) are semi-malignant tumors of the appendix which are incidentally found in up to 1% of appendectomy specimen. To this day, no valid descriptive analysis on LAMN is available for the German population.
Methods
Data of LAMN (ICD-10: D37.3) were collected from the population-based cancer registries in Germany, provided by the German Center for Cancer Registry Data (Zentrum für Krebsregisterdaten—ZfKD). Data was anonymized and included gender, age at diagnosis, tumor staging according to the TNM-classification, state of residence, information on the performed therapy, and survival data.
Results
A total of 612 cases were reported to the ZfKD between 2011 and 2018. A total of 63.07% were female and 36.93% were male. Great inhomogeneity in reporting cases was seen in the federal states of Germany including the fact that some federal states did not report any cases at all. Age distribution showed a mean age of 62.03 years (SD 16.15) at diagnosis. However, data on tumor stage was only available in 24.86% of cases (n = 152). A total of 49.34% of these patients presented with a T4-stage. Likewise, information regarding performed therapy was available in the minority of patients: 269 patients received surgery, 22 did not and for 312 cases no information was available. Twenty-four patients received chemotherapy, 188 did not, and for 400 cases, no information was available. Overall 5-year survival was estimated at 79.52%. Patients below the age of 55 years at time of diagnosis had a significantly higher 5-year survival rate compared to patients above the age of 55 years (85.77% vs. 73.27%).
Discussion
In this study, we observed an incidence of LAMN in 0.13% of all appendectomy specimen in 2018. It seems likely that not all cases were reported to the ZfKD; therefore, case numbers may be considered underestimated. Age and gender distribution goes in line with international studies with females being predominantly affected. Especially regarding tumor stage and therapy in depth information cannot be provided through the ZfKD-database. This data analysis emphasizes the need for further studies and the need for setting up a specialized registry for this unique tumor entity to develop guidelines for the appropriate treatment and follow-up.
Park−People Relationships: The Socioeconomic Monitoring of National Parks in Bavaria, Germany
(2021)
Questions about park–people relationships and the understanding and handling of the conflicts that may result from the creation and management of national parks in the surrounding area are prerequisites for both successful park management and sustainable rural tourism development. This paper analyzes the roles that research may play in relation to park–people relationships in the context of the two oldest German national parks located in Bavaria. The different fields of action of national parks are used to identify the potential for conflict, using detailed case studies from the Bavarian Forest and Berchtesgaden National Parks using quantitative population surveys carried out in 2018. The overall attitude towards both national parks is overwhelmingly positive, with trust towards park administrations and the perceived economic benefits from rural tourism being the attitudes most strongly correlated to the overall level of park–people relationships. Nevertheless, some points of contention still exist, like the ecological integrity approach towards strict nature conservation and related landscape changes (e.g., deadwood cover). A comparison over time shows in both cases that the spatial proximity to the protected area negatively influences people’s attitudes towards the parks, but less so than in the past. Recommendations for national park management include communicating proactively and with greater transparency with locals and decision-makers, to identify conflicts earlier and, where possible, to eliminate them. Furthermore, developing a standardized method to monitor park–people relationships in Germany is a must and would benefit integrated approaches in research and management based on conservation social science.
A fuzzy classification scheme that results in physically interpretable meteorological patterns associated with rainfall generation is applied to classify homogeneous regions of boreal summer rainfall anomalies in Germany. Four leading homogeneous regions are classified, representing the western, southeastern, eastern, and northern/northwestern parts of Germany with some overlap in the central parts of Germany. Variations of the sea level pressure gradient across Europe, e.g., between the continental and maritime regions, is the major phenomenon that triggers the time development of the rainfall regions by modulating wind patterns and moisture advection. Two regional climate models (REMO and CCLM4) were used to investigate the capability of climate models to reproduce the observed summer rainfall regions. Both regional climate models (RCMs) were once driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis and once by the MPI-ESM general circulation model (GCM). Overall, the RCMs exhibit good performance in terms of the regionalization of summer rainfall in Germany; though the goodness-of-match with the rainfall regions/patterns from observational data is low in some cases and the REMO model driven by MPI-ESM fails to reproduce the western homogeneous rainfall region. Under future climate change, virtually the same leading modes of summer rainfall occur, suggesting that the basic synoptic processes associated with the regional patterns remain the same over Germany. We have also assessed the added value of bias-correcting the MPI-ESM driven RCMs using a simple linear scaling approach. The bias correction does not significantly alter the identification of homogeneous rainfall regions and, hence, does not improve their goodness-of-match compared to the observed patterns, except for the one case where the original RCM output completely fails to reproduce the observed pattern. While the linear scaling method improves the basic statistics of precipitation, it does not improve the simulated meteorological patterns represented by the precipitation regimes.
This study compares the performance of three bias correction (BC) techniques in adjusting simulated precipitation estimates over Germany. The BC techniques are the multivariate quantile delta mapping (MQDM) where the grids are used as variables to incorporate the spatial dependency structure of precipitation in the bias correction; empirical quantile mapping (EQM) and, the linear scaling (LS) approach. Several metrics that include first to fourth moments and extremes characterized by the frequency of heavy wet days and return periods during boreal summer were applied to score the performance of the BC techniques. Our results indicate a strong dependency of the relative performances of the BC techniques on the choice of the regional climate model (RCM), the region, the season, and the metrics of interest. Hence, each BC technique has relative strengths and weaknesses. The LS approach performs well in adjusting the first moment but tends to fall short for higher moments and extreme precipitation during boreal summer. Depending on the season, the region and the RCM considered, there is a trade-off between the relative performances of the EQM and the MQDM in adjusting the simulated precipitation biases. However, the MQDM performs well across all considered metrics. Overall, the MQDM outperforms the EQM in improving the higher moments and in capturing the observed return level of extreme summer precipitation, averaged over Germany.
Regional climate models (RCMs) are tools used to project future climate change at a regional scale. Despite their high horizontal resolution, RCMs are characterized by systematic biases relative to observations, which can result in unrealistic interpretations of future climate change signals. On the other hand, bias correction (BC) is a popular statistical post-processing technique applied to improve the usability of output from climate models. Like every other statistical technique, BC has its strengths and weaknesses. Hence, within the regional context of Germany, and for temperature and precipitation, this study is dedicated to the assessment of the impact of different BC techniques on the RCM output. The focuses are on the impact of BC on the RCM’s statistical characterization, and physical consistency defined as the spatiotemporal consistency between the bias-corrected variable and the simulated physical mechanisms governing the variable, as well as the correlations between the bias-corrected variable and other (simulated) climate variables. Five BC techniques were applied in adjusting the systematic biases in temperature and precipitation RCM outputs. The BC techniques are linear scaling, empirical quantile mapping, univariate quantile delta mapping, multivariate quantile delta mapping that considers inter-site dependencies, and multivariate quantile delta mapping that considers inter-variable dependencies (MBCn). The results show that each BC technique adds value in reducing the biases in the statistics of the RCM output, though the added value depends on several factors such as the temporal resolution of the data, choice of RCM, climate variable, region, and the metric used in evaluating the BC technique. Further, the raw RCMs reproduced portions of the observed modes of atmospheric circulation in Western Europe, and the observed temperature, and precipitation meteorological patterns in Germany. After the BC, generally, the spatiotemporal configurations of the simulated meteorological patterns as well as the governing large-scale mechanisms were reproduced.
However, at a more localized spatial scale for the individual meteorological patterns, the BC changed the simulated co-variability of some grids, especially for precipitation. Concerning the co-variability among the variables, a physically interpretable positive correlation was found between temperature and precipitation during boreal winter in both models and observations. For most grid boxes in the study domain and on average, the BC techniques that do not adjust inter-variable dependency did not notably change the simulated correlations between the climate variables. However, depending on the grid box, the (univariate) BC techniques tend to degrade the simulated temporal correlations between temperature and precipitation. Further, MBCn which adjusts biases in inter-variable dependency has the skill to improve the correlations between the simulated variables towards observations.
The July 2021 heavy rainfall episode in parts of Western Europe caused devastating floods, specifically in Germany. This study examines circulation types (CTs) linked to extreme precipitation in Germany. It was investigated if the classified CTs can highlight the anomaly in synoptic patterns that contributed to the unusual July 2021 heavy rainfall in Germany. The North Atlantic Oscillation was found to be the major climatic mode related to the seasonal and inter-annual variations of most of the classified CTs. On average, wet (dry) conditions in large parts of Germany can be linked to westerly (northerly) moisture fluxes. During spring and summer seasons, the mid-latitude cyclone when located over the North Sea disrupts onshore moisture transport from the North Atlantic Ocean by westerlies driven by the North Atlantic subtropical anticyclone. The CT found to have the highest probability of being associated with above-average rainfall in large part of Germany features (i) enhancement and northward track of the cyclonic system over the Mediterranean; (ii) northward track of the North Atlantic anticyclone, further displacing poleward, the mid-latitude cyclone over the North Sea, enabling band of westerly moisture fluxes to penetrate Germany; (iii) cyclonic system over the Baltic Sea coupled with northeast fluxes of moisture to Germany; (iv) and unstable atmospheric conditions over Germany. In 2021, a spike was detected in the amplitude and frequency of occurrence of the aforementioned wet CT suggesting that in addition to the nearly stationary cut-off low over central Europe, during the July flood episode, anomalies in the CT contributed to the heavy rainfall event.