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BACKGROUND: Climate change will probably alter the spread and transmission intensity of malaria in Africa. OBJECTIVES: In this study, we assessed potential changes in the malaria transmission via an integrated weather disease model.
METHODS: We simulated mosquito biting rates using the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM). The input data for the LMM were bias-corrected temperature and precipitation data from the regional model (REMO) on a 0.5 degrees latitude longitude grid. A Plasmodium falciparum infection model expands the LMM simulations to incorporate information on the infection rate among children. Malaria projections were carried out with this integrated weather disease model for 2001 to 2050 according to two climate scenarios that include the effect of anthropogenic land-use and land-cover changes on climate.
RESULTS: Model-based estimates for the present climate (1960 to 2000) are consistent with observed data for the spread of malaria in Africa. In the model domain, the regions where malaria is epidemic are located in the Sahel as well as in various highland territories. A decreased spread of malaria over most parts of tropical Africa is projected because of simulated increased surface temperatures and a significant reduction in annual rainfall. However, the likelihood of malaria epidemics is projected to increase in the southern part of the Sahel. In most of East Africa, the intensity of malaria transmission is expected to increase. Projections indicate that highland areas that were formerly unsuitable for malaria will become epidemic, whereas in the lower-altitude regions of the East African highlands, epidemic risk will decrease.
CONCLUSIONS: We project that climate changes driven by greenhouse-gas and land-use changes will significantly affect the spread of malaria in tropical Africa well before 2050. The geographic distribution of areas where malaria is epidemic might have to be significantly altered in the coming decades.
Three-dimensional fluorescence imaging of thick tissue samples with near-molecular resolution remains a fundamental challenge in the life sciences. To tackle this, we developed tomoSTORM, an approach combining single-molecule localization-based super-resolution microscopy with array tomography of structurally intact brain tissue. Consecutive sections organized in a ribbon were serially imaged with a lateral resolution of 28 nm and an axial resolution of 40 nm in tissue volumes of up to 50 \(\mu\)mx50\(\mu\)mx2.5\(\mu\)m. Using targeted expression of membrane bound (m)GFP and immunohistochemistry at the calyx of Held, a model synapse for central glutamatergic neurotransmission, we delineated the course of the membrane and fine-structure of mitochondria. This method allows multiplexed super-resolution imaging in large tissue volumes with a resolution three orders of magnitude better than confocal microscopy.