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Background: A novel non-invasive asthma prediction tool from the Leicester Cohort, UK, forecasts asthma at age 8 years based on 10 predictors assessed in early childhood, including current respiratory symptoms, eczema, and parental history of asthma.
Objective: We aimed to externally validate the proposed asthma prediction method in a German birth cohort.
Methods: The MAS-90 study (Multicentre Allergy Study) recorded details on allergic diseases prospectively in about yearly follow-up assessments up to age 20 years in a cohort of 1,314 children born 1990. We replicated the scoring method from the Leicester cohort and assessed prediction, performance and discrimination. The primary outcome was defined as the combination of parent-reported wheeze and asthma drugs (both in last 12 months) at age 8. Sensitivity analyses assessed model performance for outcomes related to asthma up to age 20 years. Results: For 140 children parents reported current wheeze or cough at age 3 years. Score distribution and frequencies of later asthma resembled the Leicester cohort: 9% vs. 16% (MAS-90 vs. Leicester) of children at low risk at 3 years had asthma at 8 years, at medium risk 45% vs. 48%. Performance of the asthma prediction tool in the MAS-90 cohort was similar (Brier score 0.22 vs. 0.23) and discrimination slightly better than in the original cohort (area under the curve, AUC 0.83 vs. 0.78). Prediction and discrimination were robust against changes of inclusion criteria, scoring and outcome definitions. The secondary outcome 'physicians' diagnosed asthma at 20 years' showed the highest discrimination (AUC 0.89).
Conclusion: The novel asthma prediction tool from the Leicester cohort, UK, performed well in another population, a German birth cohort, supporting its use and further development as a simple aid to predict asthma risk in clinical settings.
Eczema often precedes the development of asthma in a disease course called the 'atopic march'. To unravel the genes underlying this characteristic pattern of allergic disease, we conduct a multi-stage genome-wide association study on infantile eczema followed by childhood asthma in 12 populations including 2,428 cases and 17,034 controls. Here we report two novel loci specific for the combined eczema plus asthma phenotype, which are associated with allergic disease for the first time; rs9357733 located in EFHC1 on chromosome 6p12.3 (OR 1.27; P = 2.1 x 10(-8)) and rs993226 between TMTC2 and SLC6A15 on chromosome 12q21.3 (OR 1.58; P = 5.3 x 10(-9)). Additional susceptibility loci identified at genome-wide significance are FLG (1q21.3), IL4/KIF3A (5q31.1), AP5B1/OVOL1 (11q13.1), C11orf30/LRRC32 (11q13.5) and IKZF3 (17q21). We show that predominantly eczema loci increase the risk for the atopic march. Our findings suggest that eczema may play an important role in the development of asthma after eczema.
Background: It remains unclear to what extent asthma in adults is linked to allergic rhinitis (AR), gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), and acetylsalicylic acid exacerbated respiratory disease (AERD), and how these comorbidities may affect asthma outcomes in the general population. We therefore aimed to assess the prevalence of these major comorbidities among adults with asthma and examine their impact on asthma exacerbations requiring hospital care.
Methods: A total of 22,050 adults 18 years and older were surveyed in the German National Health Telephone Interview Survey (GEDA) 2010 using a highly standardized computer-assisted interview technique. The study population comprised participants with self-reported physician-diagnosed asthma, among which the current (last 12 months) prevalence of AR and GERD-like symptoms (GERS), and life-time prevalence of AERD was estimated. Weighted bivariate analyses and logistic regression models were applied to assess the association of each comorbid condition with the asthma outcome (any self-reported asthma-related hospitalization and/or emergency department (ED) admission in the past year).
Results: Out of 1,136 adults with asthma, 49.6% had GERS and 42.3% had AR within the past 12 months; 14.0% met the criteria of AERD, and 75.7% had at least one out of the three conditions. Overall, the prevalence of at least one exacerbation requiring emergency room or hospital admission within the past year was 9.0%. Exacerbation prevalence was higher among participants with comorbidities than among those without (9.8% vs. 8.2% for GERS; 11.2% vs. 7.6% for AR, and 22.2% vs. 7.0% for AERD), but only differences in association with AERD were statistically significant. A strong association between asthma exacerbation and AERD persisted in multivariable logistic regression analyses adjusting for sex, age group, level of body mass index, smoking status, educational attainment, and duration of asthma: odds ratio (OR) = 4.5, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.5-8.2.
Conclusions: Data from this large nation-wide study provide evidence that GERS, AR and AERD are all common comorbidities among adults with asthma. Our data underline the public health and clinical impact of asthma with complicating AERD, contributing considerably to disease-specific hospitalization and/or ED admission in a defined asthma population, and emphasize the importance of its recognition in asthma care.