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Sales forecasts are an essential determinant of operational planning in entrepreneurial organizations. However, in China, as in other emerging markets, monthly sales forecasts are particularly challenging for multinational automotive enterprises and suppliers. A chief reason for this is that conventional approaches to sales forecasting often fail to capture the underlying market dynamics. To that end, this dissertation investigates the application of Artificial Neural Networks with an implemented backpropagation algorithm as a more “unconventional” sales forecasting method. A key element of statistical modelling is the selection of superior leading indicators. These indicators were collected as part of the researcher’s expert interviews with multinational enterprises and state associations in China. The economic plausibility of all specified indicators is critically explored in qualitative-quantitative pre-selection procedures. The overall objective of the present study was to improve the accuracy of monthly sales forecasts in the Chinese automotive market. This objective was achieved by showing that the forecasting error could be lowered to a new benchmark of less than 10% in an out-of-sample forecasting application.
The nucleus of statehood is situated at the local level: in the village, the neighborhood, the city district. This is where a community, beyond the level of the family, first develops collective rules that are intended to ensure its continued existence. But usually this is not the only level of governance at play. Above it, there are supralocal formations of power, varying in scope from regional networks to empires, which supplement the local orders or compete with them. The premise of this Research Unit is that local forms of self-governance are especially heterogeneous and prominent, wherever supralocal statehood exists in the mode of weak permeation. The central question of our approach is how local forms of self-governance work in this context. We will examine the relations to the state level as well as to other local groups as they develop over time; the scope and spatial contingency of forms of self-governance; their legitimization and the interdependency with the organization and collective identity of those groups which carry them out; finally, we will turn our attention to the significance of self-governance for the configuration of weak statehood. The empirical focus will be at the local level, which has so far been largely neglected in the research on governance beyond the state. In order to achieve this, we will work with case studies that are structured by categories and situated in geographical areas and time periods that lie outside of modern Europe with its particular development of statehood since the Late Middle Ages: in Antiquity, and in the Global South of the present. By incorporating these different time frames, we hope to contribute to overcoming the dichotomy between the modern and pre-modern era, which is often given canonical status. Our goal is to create a comparative analysis of different configurations of order as well as the development of a typology of patterns of local governance. The structure of the empirical comparison itself promises methodological insights, since it will entail recognizing, dealing with, and overcoming disciplinary limitations. Starting with the identification of typical patterns and processes, we hope to gain a better grasp of the mechanisms by which local configurations of order succeed, while at the same time advancing the theoretical debate. This will allow us to make an interdisciplinary contribution to the understanding of fundamental elements of statehood and local governance that are of central importance, especially in the context of weak statehood. The insights we hope to gain by adopting this historical perspective will contribute to understanding a present that is not based exclusively on its own, seemingly completely new preconditions, and will thus significantly sharpen the political analysis of various forms of governance.
Using own survey data and interviews, this study analyzes how businesses in Lower Franconia (Unterfranken) are entangled with China. Starting with a bird's-eye-view of the current situation, the study goes on to provide valuable insights from five specific industries. The study shows that a majority of the analyzed firms have some sort of ties to China, be it through Chinese customers, import/export activities, or else.
In recent years, numerous renewable energy cities were established worldwide, piloting different pathways to transition to clean energy. With the ability to address local needs more precisely in their unique geographic, social and economic contexts, cities play a vital role in implementing overall climate mitigation goals on the local level. In China, many renewable energy cities have emerged as well. However, official documents suggest that Chinese government authorities establish such renewable energy cities strategically, which leads to the assumption that the impulse to become renewable is different from other countries, where bottom-up initiatives are more common. Hence, this thesis explores answer to the question why and how the Chinese government promotes the energy transition of Chinese cities and regions. To explore the dynamics of local energy transition projects, this thesis adopts two frameworks from the field of sustainability transitions, the multi-level perspective and strategic niche management, and applies them to seven European and two Chinese case studies. The European sample includes the cities Graz, Güssing, Freiburg, and Helsinki as well as the communities Feldheim, Jühnde and Murau. The Chinese sample consists of the bottom-up initiative Shaanxi Sunflower Project and the demonstration project Tongli New Energy Town. A comparative analysis evaluates in how far the cases correspond to the multi-level perspective or strategic niche management. The comparison of the case studies reveals that the development of renewable energy cities in China goes beyond a top-down vs. bottom-up logic. In the Chinese context, strategic niche management should be understood as experimentation under hierarchy, which serves at pretesting different approaches before rolling them out nationwide. In addition, the analysis shows that both the multi-level perspective and strategic niche management have their advantages and disadvantages for niche development. Niches following the logic of the multi-level perspective may result in higher stakeholder acceptance, whereas strategic niche management can in turn accelerate niche development. However, since natural niche development cannot be steered intentionally, decision-makers who intend to induce local renewable energy projects have no other option but to resort to strategic niche management. To increase stakeholder acceptance and thus to improve the project outcome, decision-makers are advised to accommodate sufficient room for stakeholder participation in the project design.
In order to achieve objectives of sustainable development, the Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco City has devised a set of Key Performance Indicators, which require the collaboration of regional government and industrial entities, but also residents to be accomplished. Through qualitative interviews with eco citizens, this study offers an insight into life in an eco city and how aware residents are of their new home’s targets and incentives. The thesis investigates, how the eco city encourages residents, who have often never received adequate environmental education, to recycle and adapt their purchasing behaviour. The findings reveal the existence of several technical measures, practical incentive schemes and dissemination techniques that encourage residents to act according to environmental considerations. However, residents are often unaware of the numerical targets or do not make the connection between incentive and intended behaviour. The study highlights possibilities for improvement, in order to enhance residents’ understanding of the eco city’s objectives. After all, without resident participation and understanding, the Key Performance Indicators may be unattainable and the eco city’s eventual economic, social and environmental success in jeopardy.