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Estimation of absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), preferably with population-specific risk charts, has become a cornerstone of CVD primary prevention. Regular recalibration of risk charts may be necessary due to decreasing CVD rates and CVD risk factor levels. The SCORE risk charts for fatal CVD risk assessment were first calibrated for Germany with 1998 risk factor level data and 1999 mortality statistics. We present an update of these risk charts based on the SCORE methodology including estimates of relative risks from SCORE, risk factor levels from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults 2008–11 (DEGS1) and official mortality statistics from 2012. Competing risks methods were applied and estimates were independently validated. Updated risk charts were calculated based on cholesterol, smoking, systolic blood pressure risk factor levels, sex and 5-year age-groups. The absolute 10-year risk estimates of fatal CVD were lower according to the updated risk charts compared to the first calibration for Germany. In a nationwide sample of 3062 adults aged 40–65 years free of major CVD from DEGS1, the mean 10-year risk of fatal CVD estimated by the updated charts was lower by 29% and the estimated proportion of high risk people (10-year risk > = 5%) by 50% compared to the older risk charts. This recalibration shows a need for regular updates of risk charts according to changes in mortality and risk factor levels in order to sustain the identification of people with a high CVD risk.
Background: Target values for cardiovascular risk factors in patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) are stated in guidelines for the prevention of cardiovascular disease. We studied secular trends in risk factors over a 12-year period among CHD patients in the region of Munster, Germany.
Methods: The cross-sectional EUROASPIRE I, II and III surveys were performed in multiple centers across Europe. For all three, the Munster region was the participating German region. In the three periods 1995/96, 1999/2000, and 2006/07, the surveys included (respectively) 392, 402 and 457 <= 70-year-old patients with CHD in Munster who had sustained a coronary event at least 6 months earlier.
Results: The prevalence of smoking remained unchanged, with 16.8% in EUROASPIRE I and II and 18.4% in EUROASPIRE III (p=0.898). On the other hand, high blood pressure and high cholesterol both became less common across the three EUROASPIRE studies (60.7% to 69.4% to 55.3%, and 94.3% to 83.4% to 48.1%, respectively; p<0.001 for both). Obesity became more common (23.0% to 30.6% to 43.1%, p<0.001), as did treatment with antihypertensive and lipid-lowering drugs (80.4% to 88.6% to 94.3%, and 35.0% to 67.4% to 87.0%, respectively; p<0.001 for both).
Conclusion: The observed trends in cardiovascular risk factors under-score the vital need for better preventive strategies in patients with CHD.