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Institute
Background & Aims
Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are increasingly a cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma globally. This burden is expected to increase as epidemics of obesity, diabetes and metabolic syndrome continue to grow. The goal of this analysis was to use a Markov model to forecast NAFLD disease burden using currently available data.
Methods
A model was used to estimate NAFLD and NASH disease progression in eight countries based on data for adult prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Published estimates and expert consensus were used to build and validate the model projections.
Results
If obesity and DM level off in the future, we project a modest growth in total NAFLD cases (0–30%), between 2016–2030, with the highest growth in China as a result of urbanization and the lowest growth in Japan as a result of a shrinking population. However, at the same time, NASH prevalence will increase 15–56%, while liver mortality and advanced liver disease will more than double as a result of an aging/increasing population.
Conclusions
NAFLD and NASH represent a large and growing public health problem and efforts to understand this epidemic and to mitigate the disease burden are needed. If obesity and DM continue to increase at current and historical rates, both NAFLD and NASH prevalence are expected to increase. Since both are reversible, public health campaigns to increase awareness and diagnosis, and to promote diet and exercise can help manage the growth in future disease burden.
Lay summary
Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis can lead to advanced liver disease. Both conditions are becoming increasingly prevalent as the epidemics of obesity and diabetes continue to increase. A mathematical model was built to understand how the disease burden associated with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis will change over time. Results suggest increasing cases of advanced liver disease and liver-related mortality in the coming years.
Background:
Sarcopenic obesity (SO) is characterized by a combination of low muscle and high fat mass with an additive negative effect of both conditions on cardiometabolic risk. The aim of the study was to determine the effect of whole-body electromyostimulation (WB-EMS) on the metabolic syndrome (MetS) in community-dwelling women aged ≥70 years with SO.
Methods:
The study was conducted in an ambulatory university setting. Seventy-five community-dwelling women aged ≥70 years with SO living in Northern Bavaria, Germany, were randomly allocated to either 6 months of WB-EMS application with (WB-EMS&P) or without (WB-EMS) dietary supplementation (150 kcal/day, 56% protein) or a non-training control group (CG). WB-EMS included one session of 20 min (85 Hz, 350 µs, 4 s of strain–4 s of rest) per week with moderate-to-high intensity. The primary study endpoint was the MetS Z-score with the components waist circumference (WC), mean arterial pressure (MAP), triglycerides, fasting plasma glucose, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C); secondary study endpoints were changes in these determining variables.
Results:
MetS Z-score decreased in both groups; however, changes compared with the CG were significant (P=0.001) in the WB-EMS&P group only. On analyzing the components of the MetS, significant positive effects for both WB-EMS groups (P≤0.038) were identified for MAP, while the WB-EMS group significantly differed for WC (P=0.036), and the WB-EMS&P group significantly differed for HDL-C (P=0.006) from the CG. No significant differences were observed between the WB-EMS groups.
Conclusion:
The study clearly confirms the favorable effect of WB-EMS application on the MetS in community-dwelling women aged ≥70 years with SO. However, protein-enriched supplements did not increase effects of WB-EMS alone. In summary, we considered this novel technology an effective and safe method to prevent cardiometabolic risk factors and diseases in older women unable or unwilling to exercise conventionally.
Background: School-based intervention studies promoting a healthy lifestyle have shown favorable immediate health effects. However, there is a striking paucity on long-term follow-ups. The aim of this study was therefore to assess the 3 yr-follow-up of a cluster-randomized controlled school-based physical activity program over nine month with beneficial immediate effects on body fat, aerobic fitness and physical activity.
Methods and Findings: Initially, 28 classes from 15 elementary schools in Switzerland were grouped into an intervention (16 classes from 9 schools, n = 297 children) and a control arm (12 classes from 6 schools, n = 205 children) after stratification for grade (1st and 5th graders). Three years after the end of the multi-component physical activity program of nine months including daily physical education (i.e. two additional lessons per week on top of three regular lessons), short physical activity breaks during academic lessons, and daily physical activity homework, 289 (58%) participated in the follow-up. Primary outcome measures included body fat (sum of four skinfolds), aerobic fitness (shuttle run test), physical activity (accelerometry), and quality of life (questionnaires). After adjustment for grade, gender, baseline value and clustering within classes, children in the intervention arm compared with controls had a significantly higher average level of aerobic fitness at follow-up (0.373 z-score units [95%-CI: 0.157 to 0.59, p = 0.001] corresponding to a shift from the 50th to the 65th percentile between baseline and follow-up), while the immediate beneficial effects on the other primary outcomes were not sustained.
Conclusions: Apart from aerobic fitness, beneficial effects seen after one year were not maintained when the intervention was stopped. A continuous intervention seems necessary to maintain overall beneficial health effects as reached at the end of the intervention.