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- Theodor-Boveri-Institut für Biowissenschaften (2) (remove)
Caterpillars of the butterfly Maculinea rebeli develop as parasites inside ant colonies. In intensively studied French populations, about 25% of caterpillars mature within 1 year (fast-developing larvae [FDL]) and the others after 2 years (slow-developing larvae [SDL]); all available evidence indicates that this ratio is under the control of egg-laying females. We present an analytical model to predict the evolutionarily stable fraction of FDL (pESS). The model accounts for added winter mortality of SDL, general and kin competition among caterpillars, a competitive advantage of SDL over newly entering FDL (priority effect), and the avoidance of renewed infection of ant nests by butterflies in the coming season (segregation). We come to the following conclusions: (1) all factors listed above can promote the evolution of delayed development; (2) kin competition and segregation stabilize pESS near 0.5; and (3) a priority effect is the only mechanism potentially selecting for. However, given the empirical data, pESS is predicted to fall closer to 0.5 than to the 0.25 that has been observed. In this particular system, bet hedging cannot explain why more than 50% of larvae postpone growth. Presumably, other fitness benefits for SDL, for example, higher fertility or longevity, also contribute to the evolution of delayed development. The model presented here may be of general applicability for systems where maturing individuals compete in small subgroups.
Questions: What are the relative contributions of kin selection and individual selection to the evolution of dispersal rates in fragmented landscapes? How do environmental parameters influence the relative contributions of both evolutionary forces? Features of the model: Individual-based simulation model of a metapopulation. Logistic local growth dynamics and density-dependent dispersal. An optional shuffling algorithm allows the continuous destruction of any genetic structure in the metapopulation. Ranges of key variables: Depending on dispersal mortality (0.05-0.4) and the strength of environmental fluctuations, mean dispersal probability varied between 0.05 and 0.5. Conclusions: For local population sizes of 100 individuals, kin selection alone could account for dispersal probabilities of up to 0.1. It may result in a ten-fold increase of optimal dispersal rates compared with those predicted on the basis of individual selection alone. Such a substantial contribution of kin selection to dispersal is restricted to cases where the overall dispersal probabilities are small (textless 0.1). In the latter case, as much as 30% of the total fitness of dispersing individuals could arise from the increased reproduction of kin left in the natal patch.