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Institute
Background: Population-based data, which continuously monitors time trends in stroke epidemiology are limited. We investigated the incidence of pathological and etiological stroke subtypes over a 16 year time period. Methods: Data were collected within the Erlangen Stroke Project (ESPro), a prospective, population-based stroke register in Germany covering a total study population of 105,164 inhabitants (2010). Etiology of ischemic stroke was classified according to the Trial of Org 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment (TOAST) criteria. Results: Between January 1995 and December 2010, 3,243 patients with first-ever stroke were documented. The median age was 75 and 55% were females. The total stroke incidence decreased over the 16 year study period in men (Incidence Rate Ratio 1995-1996 vs. 2009-2010 (IRR) 0.78; 95% CI 0.58-0.90) but not in women. Among stroke subtypes, a decrease in ischemic stroke incidence (IRR 0.73; 95% CI 0.57-0.93) and of large artery atherosclerotic stroke (IRR 0.27; 95% CI 0.12-0.59) was found in men and an increase of stroke due to small artery occlusion in women (IRR 2.33; 95% CI 1.39-3.90). Conclusions: Variations in time trends of pathological and etiological stroke subtypes were found between men and women that might be linked to gender differences in the development of major vascular risk factors in the study population.
Background
The impact of risk factors on poor outcome after ischemic stroke is well known, but estimating the amount of poor outcome attributable to single factors is challenging in presence of multimorbidity. We aim to compare population attributable risk estimates obtained from different statistical approaches regarding their consistency. We use a real-life data set from the PROSCIS study to identify predictors for mortality and functional impairment one year after first-ever ischemic stroke and quantify their contribution to poor outcome using population attributable risks.
Methods
The PROSpective Cohort with Incident Stroke (PROSCIS) is a prospective observational hospital-based cohort study of patients after first-ever stroke conducted independently in Berlin (PROSCIS-B) and Munich (PROSCIS-M). The association of baseline factors with poor outcome one year after stroke in PROSCIS-B was analysed using multiple logistic regression analysis and population attributable risks were calculated, which were estimated using sequential population attributable risk based on a multiple generalized additive regression model, doubly robust estimation, as well as using average sequential population attributable risk. Findings were reproduced in an independent validation sample from PROSCIS-M.
Results
Out of 507 patients with available outcome information after 12 months in PROSCIS-B, 20.5% suffered from poor outcome. Factors associated with poor outcome were age, pre-stroke physical disability, stroke severity (NIHSS), education, and diabetes mellitus. The order of risk factors ranked by magnitudes of population attributable risk was almost similar for all methods, but population attributable risk estimates varied markedly between the methods. In PROSCIS-M, incidence of poor outcome and distribution of baseline parameters were comparable. The multiple logistic regression model could be reproduced for all predictors, except pre-stroke physical disability. Similar to PROSCIS-B, the order of risk factors ranked by magnitudes of population attributable risk was almost similar for all methods, but magnitudes of population attributable risk differed markedly between the methods.
Conclusions
Ranking of risk factors by population impact is not affected by the different statistical approaches. Thus, for a rational decision on which risk factor to target in disease interventions, population attributable risk is a supportive tool. However, population attributable risk estimates are difficult to interpret and are not comparable when they origin from studies applying different methodology. The predictors for poor outcome identified in PROSCIS-B have a relevant impact on mortality and functional impairment one year after first-ever ischemic stroke.