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Snow is a vital environmental parameter and dynamically responsive to climate change, particularly in mountainous regions. Snow cover can be monitored at variable spatial scales using Earth Observation (EO) data. Long-lasting remote sensing missions enable the generation of multi-decadal time series and thus the detection of long-term trends. However, there have been few attempts to use these to model future snow cover dynamics. In this study, we, therefore, explore the potential of such time series to forecast the Snow Line Elevation (SLE) in the European Alps. We generate monthly SLE time series from the entire Landsat archive (1985–2021) in 43 Alpine catchments. Positive long-term SLE change rates are detected, with the highest rates (5–8 m/y) in the Western and Central Alps. We utilize this SLE dataset to implement and evaluate seven uni-variate time series modeling and forecasting approaches. The best results were achieved by Random Forests, with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.79 and a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 258 m, Telescope (0.76, 268 m), and seasonal ARIMA (0.75, 270 m). Since the model performance varies strongly with the input data, we developed a combined forecast based on the best-performing methods in each catchment. This approach was then used to forecast the SLE for the years 2022–2029. In the majority of the catchments, the shift of the forecast median SLE level retained the sign of the long-term trend. In cases where a deviating SLE dynamic is forecast, a discussion based on the unique properties of the catchment and past SLE dynamics is required. In the future, we expect major improvements in our SLE forecasting efforts by including external predictor variables in a multi-variate modeling approach.
Background: A novel non-invasive asthma prediction tool from the Leicester Cohort, UK, forecasts asthma at age 8 years based on 10 predictors assessed in early childhood, including current respiratory symptoms, eczema, and parental history of asthma.
Objective: We aimed to externally validate the proposed asthma prediction method in a German birth cohort.
Methods: The MAS-90 study (Multicentre Allergy Study) recorded details on allergic diseases prospectively in about yearly follow-up assessments up to age 20 years in a cohort of 1,314 children born 1990. We replicated the scoring method from the Leicester cohort and assessed prediction, performance and discrimination. The primary outcome was defined as the combination of parent-reported wheeze and asthma drugs (both in last 12 months) at age 8. Sensitivity analyses assessed model performance for outcomes related to asthma up to age 20 years. Results: For 140 children parents reported current wheeze or cough at age 3 years. Score distribution and frequencies of later asthma resembled the Leicester cohort: 9% vs. 16% (MAS-90 vs. Leicester) of children at low risk at 3 years had asthma at 8 years, at medium risk 45% vs. 48%. Performance of the asthma prediction tool in the MAS-90 cohort was similar (Brier score 0.22 vs. 0.23) and discrimination slightly better than in the original cohort (area under the curve, AUC 0.83 vs. 0.78). Prediction and discrimination were robust against changes of inclusion criteria, scoring and outcome definitions. The secondary outcome 'physicians' diagnosed asthma at 20 years' showed the highest discrimination (AUC 0.89).
Conclusion: The novel asthma prediction tool from the Leicester cohort, UK, performed well in another population, a German birth cohort, supporting its use and further development as a simple aid to predict asthma risk in clinical settings.
Diagnosis of cardiac sarcoidosis is often challenging. Whereas cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (CMR) and positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) with \(^{18}\)F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) are most commonly used to evaluate patients, PET/CT using radiolabeled somatostatin receptor (SSTR) ligands for visualization of inflammation might represent a more specific alternative. This study aimed to investigate the feasibility of SSTR–PET/CT for detecting cardiac sarcoidosis in comparison to CMR.
15 patients (6 males, 9 females) with sarcoidosis and suspicion on cardiac involvement underwent SSTR-PET/CT imaging and CMR. Images were visually scored. The AHA 17-segment model of the left myocardium was used for localization and comparison of inflamed myocardium for both imaging modalities. In semi-quantitative analysis, mean (SUV\(_{mean}\)) and maximum standardized uptake values (SUV\(_{max}\)) of affected myocardium were calculated and compared with both remote myocardium and left ventricular (LV) cavity.
SSTR-PET was positive in 7/15, CMR in 10/15 patients. Of the 3 CMR+/PET- subjects, one patient with minor involvement (<25% of wall thickness in CMR) was missed by PET. The remaining two CMR+/PET- patients displayed no adverse cardiac events during follow-up.
In the 17-segment model, PET/CT yielded 27 and CMR 29 positive segments. Overall concordance of the 2 modalities was 96.1% (245/255 segments analyzed). SUV\(_{mean}\) and SUV\(_{max}\) in inflamed areas were 2.0±1.2 and 2.6±1.2, respectively. The lesion-to-remote myocardium and lesion-to-LV cavity ratios were 1.8±0.2 and 1.9±0.2 for SUV\(_{mean}\) and 2.0±0.3 and 1.7±0.3 for SUV\(_{max}\), respectively.
Detection of cardiac sarcoidosis by SSTR-PET/CT is feasible. Our data warrant further analysis in larger prospective series.
Risk Stratification for Bipolar Disorder Using Polygenic Risk Scores Among Young High-Risk Adults
(2020)
Objective:
Identifying high-risk groups with an increased genetic liability for bipolar disorder (BD) will provide insights into the etiology of BD and contribute to early detection of BD. We used the BD polygenic risk score (PRS) derived from BD genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to explore how such genetic risk manifests in young, high-risk adults. We postulated that BD-PRS would be associated with risk factors for BD.
Methods:
A final sample of 185 young, high-risk German adults (aged 18–35 years) were grouped into three risk groups and compared to a healthy control group (n = 1,100). The risk groups comprised 117 cases with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), 45 with major depressive disorder (MDD), and 23 help-seeking adults with early recognition symptoms [ER: positive family history for BD, (sub)threshold affective symptomatology and/or mood swings, sleeping disorder]. BD-PRS was computed for each participant. Logistic regression models (controlling for sex, age, and the first five ancestry principal components) were used to assess associations of BD-PRS and the high-risk phenotypes.
Results:
We observed an association between BD-PRS and combined risk group status (OR = 1.48, p < 0.001), ADHD diagnosis (OR = 1.32, p = 0.009), MDD diagnosis (OR = 1.96, p < 0.001), and ER group status (OR = 1.7, p = 0.025; not significant after correction for multiple testing) compared to healthy controls.
Conclusions:
In the present study, increased genetic risk for BD was a significant predictor for MDD and ADHD status, but not for ER. These findings support an underlying shared risk for both MDD and BD as well as ADHD and BD. Improving our understanding of the underlying genetic architecture of these phenotypes may aid in early identification and risk stratification.
Background: miRNA profiles are promising biomarker candidates for a manifold of human pathologies, opening new avenues for diagnosis and prognosis. Beyond studies that describe miRNAs frequently as markers for specific traits, we asked whether a general pattern for miRNAs across many diseases exists.
Methods: We evaluated genome-wide circulating profiles of 1,049 patients suffering from 19 different cancer and non-cancer diseases as well as unaffected controls. The results were validated on 319 individuals using qRT-PCR.
Results: We discovered 34 miRNAs with strong disease association. Among those, we found substantially decreased levels of hsa-miR-144* and hsa-miR-20b with AUC of 0.751 ( 95% CI: 0.703-0.799), respectively. We also discovered a set of miRNAs, including hsa-miR-155*, as rather stable markers, offering reasonable control miRNAs for future studies. The strong downregulation of hsa-miR-144* and the less variable pattern of hsa-miR-155* has been validated in a cohort of 319 samples in three different centers. Here, breast cancer as an additional disease phenotype not included in the screening phase has been included as the 20th trait.
Conclusions: Our study on 1,368 patients including 1,049 genome-wide miRNA profiles and 319 qRT-PCR validations further underscores the high potential of specific blood-borne miRNA patterns as molecular biomarkers. Importantly, we highlight 34 miRNAs that are generally dysregulated in human pathologies. Although these markers are not specific to certain diseases they may add to the diagnosis in combination with other markers, building a specific signature. Besides these dysregulated miRNAs, we propose a set of constant miRNAs that may be used as control markers.
Background: Kerinokeratosis papulosa (KP) is considered an extremely rare genodermatosis presenting usually as waxy papules on the trunk in childhood.
Objective: To describe and analyze the clinical, histological and potential etiopathological aspects of KP.
Methods: The dermatoscopic features of a new case of KP of childhood are investigated. The presence of human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA in lesional skin was studied by polymerase chain reaction. Furthermore, all cases of KP of childhood reported so far were reviewed.
Results: As a diagnostic tool, we describe for the first time a dermatoscopic feature, namely a cribriform pattern of KP, in an 11-year-old boy. In addition, we detected HPV (type 57) in his KP lesions.
Conclusions: Dermatoscopic examination might be a useful tool to distinguish KP from other skin lesions, e.g. common warts. The detection of HPV type 57 might hint to an etiological role of HPV for KP.
Background
Inherited pathogenic variants in BRCA1 and BRCA2 are the most common causes of hereditary breast and ovarian cancer (HBOC). The risk of developing breast cancer by age 80 in women carrying a BRCA1 pathogenic variant is 72%. The lifetime risk varies between families and even within affected individuals of the same family. The cause of this variability is largely unknown, but it is hypothesized that additional genetic factors contribute to differences in age at onset (AAO). Here we investigated whether truncating and rare missense variants in genes of different DNA-repair pathways contribute to this phenomenon.
Methods
We used extreme phenotype sampling to recruit 133 BRCA1-positive patients with either early breast cancer onset, below 35 (early AAO cohort) or cancer-free by age 60 (controls). Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) was used to screen for variants in 311 genes involved in different DNA-repair pathways.
Results
Patients with an early AAO (73 women) had developed breast cancer at a median age of 27 years (interquartile range (IQR); 25.00–27.00 years). A total of 3703 variants were detected in all patients and 43 of those (1.2%) were truncating variants. The truncating variants were found in 26 women of the early AAO group (35.6%; 95%-CI 24.7 - 47.7%) compared to 16 women of controls (26.7%; 95%-CI 16.1 to 39.7%). When adjusted for environmental factors and family history, the odds ratio indicated an increased breast cancer risk for those carrying an additional truncating DNA-repair variant to BRCA1 mutation (OR: 3.1; 95%-CI 0.92 to 11.5; p-value = 0.07), although it did not reach the conventionally acceptable significance level of 0.05.
Conclusions
To our knowledge this is the first time that the combined effect of truncating variants in DNA-repair genes on AAO in patients with hereditary breast cancer is investigated. Our results indicate that co-occurring truncating variants might be associated with an earlier onset of breast cancer in BRCA1-positive patients. Larger cohorts are needed to confirm these results.
Given its non-invasive nature, there is increasing interest in the use of transcutaneous vagus nerve stimulation (tVNS) across basic, translational and clinical research. Contemporaneously, tVNS can be achieved by stimulating either the auricular branch or the cervical bundle of the vagus nerve, referred to as transcutaneous auricular vagus nerve stimulation(VNS) and transcutaneous cervical VNS, respectively. In order to advance the field in a systematic manner, studies using these technologies need to adequately report sufficient methodological detail to enable comparison of results between studies, replication of studies, as well as enhancing study participant safety. We systematically reviewed the existing tVNS literature to evaluate current reporting practices. Based on this review, and consensus among participating authors, we propose a set of minimal reporting items to guide future tVNS studies. The suggested items address specific technical aspects of the device and stimulation parameters. We also cover general recommendations including inclusion and exclusion criteria for participants, outcome parameters and the detailed reporting of side effects. Furthermore, we review strategies used to identify the optimal stimulation parameters for a given research setting and summarize ongoing developments in animal research with potential implications for the application of tVNS in humans. Finally, we discuss the potential of tVNS in future research as well as the associated challenges across several disciplines in research and clinical practice.
Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is rising in prevalence, and a better pathophysiologic understanding of the transition to its inflammatory phenotype (NASH) is key to the development of effective therapies. To evaluate the contribution of the NLRP3 inflammasome and its downstream effectors IL-1 and IL-18 in this process, we applied the true-to-life “American lifestyle-induced obesity syndrome” (ALiOS) diet mouse model. Development of obesity, fatty liver and liver damage was investigated in mice fed for 24 weeks according to the ALiOS protocol. Lipidomic changes in mouse livers were compared to human NAFLD samples. Receptor knockout mice for IL-1 and IL-18 were used to dissect the impact of downstream signals of inflammasome activity on the development of NAFLD. The ALiOS diet induced obesity and liver steatosis. The lipidomic changes closely mimicked changes in human NAFLD. A pro-inflammatory gene expression pattern in liver tissue and increased serum liver transaminases indicated early liver damage in the absence of histological evidence of NASH. Mechanistically, Il-18r\(^{−/−}\)- but not Il-1r\(^{−/−}\) mice were protected from early liver damage, possibly due to silencing of the pro-inflammatory gene expression pattern. Our study identified NLRP3 activation and IL-18R-dependent signaling as potential modulators of early liver damage in NAFLD, preceding development of histologic NASH.
In their role as second messengers, cyclic nucleotides such as cAMP have a variety of intracellular effects. These complex tasks demand a highly organized orchestration of spatially and temporally confined cAMP action which should be best achieved by compartmentalization of the latter. A great body of evidence suggests that cAMP compartments may be established and maintained by cAMP degrading enzymes, e.g. phosphodiesterases (PDEs). However, the molecular and biophysical details of how PDEs can orchestrate cAMP gradients are entirely unclear. In this paper, using fusion proteins of cAMP FRET-sensors and PDEs in living cells, we provide direct experimental evidence that the cAMP concentration in the vicinity of an individual PDE molecule is below the detection limit of our FRET sensors (<100nM). This cAMP gradient persists in crude cytosol preparations. We developed mathematical models based on diffusion-reaction equations which describe the creation of nanocompartments around a single PDE molecule and more complex spatial PDE arrangements. The analytically solvable equations derived here explicitly determine how the capability of a single PDE, or PDE complexes, to create a nanocompartment depend on the cAMP degradation rate, the diffusive mobility of cAMP, and geometrical and topological parameters. We apply these generic models to our experimental data and determine the diffusive mobility and degradation rate of cAMP. The results obtained for these parameters differ by far from data in literature for free soluble cAMP interacting with PDE. Hence, restricted cAMP diffusion in the vincinity of PDE is necessary to create cAMP nanocompartments in cells.