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Institute
Reliable near-surface soil moisture (θ) information is crucial for supporting risk assessment of future water usage, particularly considering the vulnerability of agroforestry systems of Mediterranean environments to climate change. We propose a simple empirical model by integrating dual-polarimetric Sentinel-1 (S1) Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) C-band single-look complex data and topographic information together with in-situ measurements of θ into a random forest (RF) regression approach (10-fold cross-validation). Firstly, we compare two RF models' estimation performances using either 43 SAR parameters (θNov\(^{SAR}\)) or the combination of 43 SAR and 10 terrain parameters (θNov\(^{SAR+Terrain}\)). Secondly, we analyze the essential parameters in estimating and mapping θ for S1 overpasses twice a day (at 5 a.m. and 5 p.m.) in a high spatiotemporal (17 × 17 m; 6 days) resolution. The developed site-specific calibration-dependent model was tested for a short period in November 2018 in a field-scale agroforestry environment belonging to the “Alento” hydrological observatory in southern Italy. Our results show that the combined SAR + terrain model slightly outperforms the SAR-based model (θNov\(^{SAR+Terrain}\) with 0.025 and 0.020 m3 m\(^{−3}\), and 89% compared to θNov\(^{SAR}\) with 0.028 and 0.022 m\(^3\) m\(^{−3}\, and 86% in terms of RMSE, MAE, and R2). The higher explanatory power for θNov\(^{SAR+Terrain}\) is assessed with time-variant SAR phase information-dependent elements of the C2 covariance and Kennaugh matrix (i.e., K1, K6, and K1S) and with local (e.g., altitude above channel network) and compound topographic attributes (e.g., wetness index). Our proposed methodological approach constitutes a simple empirical model aiming at estimating θ for rapid surveys with high accuracy. It emphasizes potentials for further improvement (e.g., higher spatiotemporal coverage of ground-truthing) by identifying differences of SAR measurements between S1 overpasses in the morning and afternoon.
This study compares the performance of the five widely used crop growth models (CGMs): World Food Studies (WOFOST), Coalition for Environmentally Responsible Economies (CERES)-Wheat, AquaCrop, cropping systems simulation model (CropSyst), and the semi-empiric light use efficiency approach (LUE) for the prediction of winter wheat biomass on the Durable Environmental Multidisciplinary Monitoring Information Network (DEMMIN) test site, Germany. The study focuses on the use of remote sensing (RS) data, acquired in 2015, in CGMs, as they offer spatial information on the actual conditions of the vegetation. Along with this, the study investigates the data fusion of Landsat (30 m) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) (500 m) data using the spatial and temporal reflectance adaptive reflectance fusion model (STARFM) fusion algorithm. These synthetic RS data offer a 30-m spatial and one-day temporal resolution. The dataset therefore provides the necessary information to run CGMs and it is possible to examine the fine-scale spatial and temporal changes in crop phenology for specific fields, or sub sections of them, and to monitor crop growth daily, considering the impact of daily climate variability. The analysis includes a detailed comparison of the simulated and measured crop biomass. The modelled crop biomass using synthetic RS data is compared to the model outputs using the original MODIS time series as well. On comparison with the MODIS product, the study finds the performance of CGMs more reliable, precise, and significant with synthetic time series. Using synthetic RS data, the models AquaCrop and LUE, in contrast to other models, simulate the winter wheat biomass best, with an output of high R2 (>0.82), low RMSE (<600 g/m\(^2\)) and significant p-value (<0.05) during the study period. However, inputting MODIS data makes the models underperform, with low R2 (<0.68) and high RMSE (>600 g/m\(^2\)). The study shows that the models requiring fewer input parameters (AquaCrop and LUE) to simulate crop biomass are highly applicable and precise. At the same time, they are easier to implement than models, which need more input parameters (WOFOST and CERES-Wheat).
Water crises are becoming severe in recent times, further fueled by population increase and climate change. They result in complex and unsustainable water management. Spatial estimation of consumptive water use is vital for performance assessment of the irrigation system using Remote Sensing (RS). For this study, its estimation is done using the Soil Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) approach. Performance indicators including equity, adequacy, and reliability were worked out at various spatiotemporal scales. Moreover, optimization and sustainable use of water resources are not possible without knowing the factors mainly influencing consumptive water use of major crops. For that purpose, random forest regression modelling was employed using various sets of factors for site-specific, proximity, and cropping system. The results show that the system is underperforming both for Kharif (i.e., summer) and Rabi (i.e., winter) seasons. Performance indicators highlight poor water distribution in the system, a shortage of water supply, and unreliability. The results are relatively good for Rabi as compared to Kharif, with an overall poor situation for both seasons. Factors importance varies for different crops. Overall, distance from canal, road density, canal density, and farm approachability are the most important factors for explaining consumptive water use. Auditing of consumptive water use shows the potential for resource optimization through on-farm water management by the targeted approach. The results are based on the present situation without considering future changes in canal water supply and consumptive water use under climate change.
WUEMoCA is an operational scientific webmapping tool for the regional monitoring of land and water use efficiency in the irrigated croplands of the transboundary Aral Sea Basin that is shared by Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Afghanistan. Satellite data on land use, crop pro-duction and water consumption is integrated with hydrological and economic information to provide of a set indicators. The tool is useful for large-scale decisions on water distribution or land use, and may be seen as demonstrator for numerous applications in practice, that require independent area-wide spatial information.
The use of inverse methods allow efficient model calibration. This study employs PEST to calibrate a large catchment scale transient flow model. Results are demonstrated by comparing manually calibrated approaches with the automated approach. An advanced Tikhonov regularization algorithm was employed for carrying out the automated pilot point (PP) method. The results indicate that automated PP is more flexible and robust as compared to other approaches. Different statistical indicators show that this method yields reliable calibration as values of coefficient of determination (R-2) range from 0.98 to 0.99, Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (ME) range from 0.964 to 0.976, and root mean square errors (RMSE) range from 1.68 m to 1.23 m, for manual and automated approaches, respectively. Validation results of automated PP show ME as 0.969 and RMSE as 1.31 m. The results of output sensitivity suggest that hydraulic conductivity is a more influential parameter. Considering the limitations of the current study, it is recommended to perform global sensitivity and linear uncertainty analysis for the better estimation of the modelling results.
This study analyzed the spatiotemporal pattern of settlement expansion in Abuja, Nigeria, one of West Africa’s fastest developing cities, using geoinformation and ancillary datasets. Three epochs of Land-use Land-cover (LULC) maps for 1986, 2001 and 2014 were derived from Landsat images using support vector machines (SVM). Accuracy assessment (AA) of the LULC maps based on the pixel count resulted in overall accuracy of 82%, 92% and 92%, while the AA derived from the error adjusted area (EAA) method stood at 69%, 91% and 91% for 1986, 2001 and 2014, respectively. Two major techniques for detecting changes in the LULC epochs involved the use of binary maps as well as a post-classification comparison approach. Quantitative spatiotemporal analysis was conducted to detect LULC changes with specific focus on the settlement development pattern of Abuja, the federal capital city (FCC) of Nigeria. Logical transitions to the urban category were modelled for predicting future scenarios for the year 2050 using the embedded land change modeler (LCM) in the IDRISI package. Based on the EAA, the result showed that urban areas increased by more than 11% between 1986 and 2001. In contrast, this value rose to 17% between 2001 and 2014. The LCM model projected LULC changes that showed a growing trend in settlement expansion, which might take over allotted spaces for green areas and agricultural land if stringent development policies and enforcement measures are not implemented. In conclusion, integrating geospatial technologies with ancillary datasets offered improved understanding of how urbanization processes such as increased imperviousness of such a magnitude could influence the urban microclimate through the alteration of natural land surface temperature. Urban expansion could also lead to increased surface runoff as well as changes in drainage geography leading to urban floods.
Cropping Intensity in the Aral Sea Basin and Its Dependency from the Runoff Formation 2000–2012
(2016)
This study is aimed at a better understanding of how upstream runoff formation affected the cropping intensity (CI: number of harvests) in the Aral Sea Basin (ASB) between 2000 and 2012. MODIS 250 m NDVI time series and knowledge-based pixel masking that included settlement layers and topography features enabled to map the irrigated cropland extent (iCE). Random forest models supported the classification of cropland vegetation phenology (CVP: winter/summer crops, double cropping, etc.). CI and the percentage of fallow cropland (PF) were derived from CVP. Spearman’s rho was selected for assessing the statistical relation of CI and PF to runoff formation in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya catchments per hydrological year. Validation in 12 reference sites using multi-annual Landsat-7 ETM+ images revealed an average overall accuracy of 0.85 for the iCE maps. MODIS maps overestimated that based on Landsat by an average factor of ~1.15 (MODIS iCE/Landsat iCE). Exceptional overestimations occurred in case of inaccurate settlement layers. The CVP and CI maps achieved overall accuracies of 0.91 and 0.96, respectively. The Amu Darya catchment disclosed significant positive (negative) relations between upstream runoff with CI (PF) and a high pressure on the river water resources in 2000–2012. Along the Syr Darya, reduced dependencies could be observed, which is potentially linked to the high number of water constructions in that catchment. Intensified double cropping after drought years occurred in Uzbekistan. However, a 10 km × 10 km grid of Spearman’s rho (CI and PF vs. upstream runoff) emphasized locations at different CI levels that are directly affected by runoff fluctuations in both river systems. The resulting maps may thus be supportive on the way to achieve long-term sustainability of crop production and to simultaneously protect the severely threatened environment in the ASB. The gained knowledge can be further used for investigating climatic impacts of irrigation in the region.
The worldwide demand for food has been increasing due to the rapidly growing global population, and agricultural lands have increased in extent to produce more food crops. The pattern of cropland varies among different regions depending on the traditional knowledge of farmers and availability of uncultivated land. Satellite images can be used to map cropland in open areas but have limitations for detecting undergrowth inside forests. Classification results are often biased and need to be supplemented with field observations. Undercover cropland inside forests in the Bale Mountains of Ethiopia was assessed using field observed percentage cover of land use/land cover classes, and topographic and location parameters. The most influential factors were identified using Boosted Regression Trees and used to map undercover cropland area. Elevation, slope, easterly aspect, distance to settlements, and distance to national park were found to be the most influential factors determining undercover cropland area. When there is very high demand for growing food crops, constrained under restricted rights for clearing forest, cultivation could take place within forests as an undercover. Further research on the impact of undercover cropland on ecosystem services and challenges in sustainable management is thus essential.
Accurate quantification of land use/cover change (LULCC) is important for efficient environmental management, especially in regions that are extremely affected by climate variability and continuous population growth such as West Africa. In this context, accurate LULC classification and statistically sound change area estimates are essential for a better understanding of LULCC processes. This study aimed at comparing mono-temporal and multi-temporal LULC classifications as well as their combination with ancillary data and to determine LULCC across the heterogeneous landscape of southwest Burkina Faso using accurate classification results. Landsat data (1999, 2006 and 2011) and ancillary data served as input features for the random forest classifier algorithm. Five LULC classes were identified: woodland, mixed vegetation, bare surface, water and agricultural area. A reference database was established using different sources including high-resolution images, aerial photo and field data. LULCC and LULC classification accuracies, area and area uncertainty were computed based on the method of adjusted error matrices. The results revealed that multi-temporal classification significantly outperformed those solely based on mono-temporal data in the study area. However, combining mono-temporal imagery and ancillary data for LULC classification had the same accuracy level as multi-temporal classification which is an indication that this combination is an efficient alternative to multi-temporal classification in the study region, where cloud free images are rare. The LULCC map obtained had an overall accuracy of 92%. Natural vegetation loss was estimated to be 17.9% ± 2.5% between 1999 and 2011. The study area experienced an increase in agricultural area and bare surface at the expense of woodland and mixed vegetation, which attests to the ongoing deforestation. These results can serve as means of regional and global land cover products validation, as they provide a new validated data set with uncertainty estimates in heterogeneous ecosystems prone to classification errors.
Central Asia consists of the five former Soviet States Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, therefore comprising an area of similar to 4 Mio km(2). The continental climate is characterized by hot and dry summer months and cold winter seasons with most precipitation occurring as snowfall. Accordingly, freshwater supply is strongly depending on the amount of accumulated snow as well as the moment of its release after snowmelt. The aim of the presented study is to identify possible changes in snow cover characteristics, consisting of snow cover duration, onset and offset of snow cover season within the last 28 years. Relying on remotely sensed data originating from medium resolution imagers, these snow cover characteristics are extracted on a daily basis. The resolution of 500-1000 m allows for a subsequent analysis of changes on the scale of hydrological sub-catchments. Long-term changes are identified from this unique dataset, revealing an ongoing shift towards earlier snowmelt within the Central Asian Mountains. This shift can be observed in most upstream hydro catchments within Pamir and Tian Shan Mountains and it leads to a potential change of freshwater availability in the downstream regions, exerting additional pressure on the already tensed situation.