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Background
Intensive Care Resources are heavily utilized during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, risk stratification and prediction of SARS-CoV-2 patient clinical outcomes upon ICU admission remain inadequate. This study aimed to develop a machine learning model, based on retrospective & prospective clinical data, to stratify patient risk and predict ICU survival and outcomes.
Methods
A Germany-wide electronic registry was established to pseudonymously collect admission, therapeutic and discharge information of SARS-CoV-2 ICU patients retrospectively and prospectively. Machine learning approaches were evaluated for the accuracy and interpretability of predictions. The Explainable Boosting Machine approach was selected as the most suitable method. Individual, non-linear shape functions for predictive parameters and parameter interactions are reported.
Results
1039 patients were included in the Explainable Boosting Machine model, 596 patients retrospectively collected, and 443 patients prospectively collected. The model for prediction of general ICU outcome was shown to be more reliable to predict “survival”. Age, inflammatory and thrombotic activity, and severity of ARDS at ICU admission were shown to be predictive of ICU survival. Patients’ age, pulmonary dysfunction and transfer from an external institution were predictors for ECMO therapy. The interaction of patient age with D-dimer levels on admission and creatinine levels with SOFA score without GCS were predictors for renal replacement therapy.
Conclusions
Using Explainable Boosting Machine analysis, we confirmed and weighed previously reported and identified novel predictors for outcome in critically ill COVID-19 patients. Using this strategy, predictive modeling of COVID-19 ICU patient outcomes can be performed overcoming the limitations of linear regression models.
Trial registration “ClinicalTrials” (clinicaltrials.gov) under NCT04455451.
Background: Since there is no standardized and effective treatment for advanced uveal melanoma (UM), the prognosis is dismal once metastases develop. Due to the availability of immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) in the real-world setting, the prognosis of metastatic UM has improved. However, it is unclear how the presence of hepatic and extrahepatic metastasis impacts the response and survival after ICB. Methods: A total of 178 patients with metastatic UM treated with ICB were included in this analysis. Patients were recruited from German skin cancer centers and the German national skin cancer registry (ADOReg). To investigate the impact of hepatic metastasis, two cohorts were compared: patients with liver metastasis only (cohort A, n = 55) versus those with both liver and extra-hepatic metastasis (cohort B, n = 123). Data were analyzed in both cohorts for response to treatment, progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS). The survival and progression probabilities were calculated with the Kaplan–Meier method. Log-rank tests, χ\(^2\) tests, and t-tests were performed to detect significant differences between both cohorts. Results: The median OS of the overall population was 16 months (95% CI 13.4–23.7) and the median PFS, 2.8 months (95% CI 2.5–3.0). The median OS was longer in cohort B than in cohort A (18.2 vs. 6.1 months; p = 0.071). The best objective response rate to dual ICB was 13.8% and to anti-PD-1 monotherapy 8.9% in the entire population. Patients with liver metastases only had a lower response to dual ICB, yet without significance (cohort A 8.7% vs. cohort B 16.7%; p = 0.45). Adverse events (AE) occurred in 41.6%. Severe AE were observed in 26.3% and evenly distributed between both cohorts. Conclusion: The survival of this large cohort of patients with advanced UM was more favorable than reported in previous benchmark studies. Patients with both hepatic and extrahepatic metastasis showed more favorable survival and higher response to dual ICB than those with hepatic metastasis only.
Im Rahmen einer retrospektiven Studie wurde eine Untersuchung aller Patienten durchgeführt, bei denen im Zeitraum von 1991 bis 1998 Stift- Stumpfaufbauten in Verbindung mit festsitzendem oder herausnehmbaren Zahnersatz nach unterschiedlichen Rekonstruktionsverfahren eingegliedert worden waren. Dabei sollte der Unterschied zwischen konventioneller und adhäsiver Aufbaubefestigung untersucht werden.
Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a fatal neurodegenerative disease that causes progressive autonomy loss and need for care. This does not only affect patients themselves, but also the patients’ informal caregivers (CGs) in their health, personal and professional lives. The big efforts of this multi-center study were not only to evaluate the caregivers' burden and to identify its predictors, but it also should provide a specific understanding of the needs of ALS patients' CGs and fill the gap of knowledge on their personal and work lives. Using standardized questionnaires, primary data from patients and their main informal CGs (n = 249) were collected. Patients' functional status and disease severity were evaluated using the Barthel Index, the revised Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Functional Rating Scale (ALSFRS-R) and the King’s Stages for ALS. The caregivers' burden was recorded by the Zarit Burden Interview (ZBI). Comorbid anxiety and depression of caregivers were assessed by the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale. Additionally, the EuroQol Five Dimension Five Level Scale evaluated their health-related quality of life. The caregivers' burden was high (mean ZBI = 26/88, 0 = no burden, ≥24 = highly burdened) and correlated with patients' functional status (r\(_p\) = −0.555, p < 0.001, n = 242). It was influenced by the CGs' own mental health issues due to caregiving (+11.36, 95% CI [6.84; 15.87], p < 0.001), patients' wheelchair dependency (+9.30, 95% CI [5.94; 12.66], p < 0.001) and was interrelated with the CGs' depression (r\(_p\) = 0.627, p < 0.001, n = 234), anxiety (r\(_p\) = 0.550, p < 0.001, n = 234), and poorer physical condition (r\(_p\) = −0.362, p < 0.001, n = 237). Moreover, female CGs showed symptoms of anxiety more often, which also correlated with the patients' impairment in daily routine (r\(_s\) = −0.280, p < 0.001, n = 169). As increasing disease severity, along with decreasing autonomy, was the main predictor of caregiver burden and showed to create relevant (negative) implications on CGs' lives, patient care and supportive therapies should address this issue. Moreover, in order to preserve the mental and physical health of the CGs, new concepts of care have to focus on both, on not only patients but also their CGs and gender-associated specific issues. As caregiving in ALS also significantly influences the socioeconomic status by restrictions in CGs' work lives and income, and the main reported needs being lack of psychological support and a high bureaucracy, the situation of CGs needs more attention. Apart from their own multi-disciplinary medical and psychological care, more support in care and patient management issues is required.
Re-induction with immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) needs to be considered in many patients with uveal melanoma (UM) due to limited systemic treatment options. Here, we provide hitherto the first analysis of ICB re-induction in UM. A total of 177 patients with metastatic UM treated with ICB were included from German skin cancer centers and the German national skin cancer registry (ADOReg). To investigate the impact of ICB re-induction, two cohorts were compared: patients who received at least one ICB re-induction (cohort A, n = 52) versus those who received only one treatment line of ICB (cohort B, n = 125). In cohort A, a transient benefit of overall survival (OS) was observed at 6 and 12 months after the treatment start of ICB. There was no significant difference in OS between both groups (p = 0.1) with a median OS of 16.2 months (cohort A, 95% CI: 11.1–23.8) versus 9.4 months (cohort B, 95% CI: 6.1–14.9). Patients receiving re-induction of ICB (cohort A) had similar response rates compared to those receiving ICB once. Re-induction of ICB may yield a clinical benefit for a small subgroup of patients even after resistance or development of toxicities.
Impaired cytomegalovirus (CMV)-specific cell-mediated immunity (CMV-CMI) is a major cause of CMV reactivation and associated complications in solid-organ transplantation. Reliably assessing CMV-CMI is desirable to individually adjust antiviral and immunosuppressive therapy. This study aimed to evaluate the suitability of T-Track® CMV, a novel IFN-γ ELISpot assay based on the stimulation of peripheral blood mononuclear cells with pp65 and IE-I CMV proteins, to monitor CMV-CMI following kidney transplantation. A prospective longitudinal multicenter study was conducted in 86 intermediate-risk renal transplant recipients. CMV-CMI, CMV viral load, and clinical complications were monitored over 6 months post-transplantation. Ninety-five percent and 88–92% ELISpot assays were positive pre- and post-transplantation, respectively. CMV-specific response was reduced following immunosuppressive treatment and increased in patients with graft rejection, indicating the ability of the ELISpot assay to monitor patients' immunosuppressive state. Interestingly, median pp65-specific response was ninefold higher in patients with self-clearing viral load compared to antivirally treated patients prior to first viral load detection (P < 0.001), suggesting that reactivity to pp65 represents a potential immunocompetence marker. Altogether, T-Track® CMV is a highly sensitive IFN-γ ELISpot assay, suitable for the immunomonitoring of CMV-seropositive renal transplant recipients, and with a potential use for the risk assessment of CMV-related clinical complications (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02083042).