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Climate and land-use change are key drivers of environmental degradation in the Anthropocene, but too little is known about their interactive effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Long-term data on biodiversity trends are currently lacking. Furthermore, previous ecological studies have rarely considered climate and land use in a joint design, did not achieve variable independence or lost statistical power by not covering the full range of environmental gradients.
Here, we introduce a multi-scale space-for-time study design to disentangle effects of climate and land use on biodiversity and ecosystem services. The site selection approach coupled extensive GIS-based exploration (i.e. using a Geographic information system) and correlation heatmaps with a crossed and nested design covering regional, landscape and local scales. Its implementation in Bavaria (Germany) resulted in a set of study plots that maximise the potential range and independence of environmental variables at different spatial scales.
Stratifying the state of Bavaria into five climate zones (reference period 1981–2010) and three prevailing land-use types, that is, near-natural, agriculture and urban, resulted in 60 study regions (5.8 × 5.8 km quadrants) covering a mean annual temperature gradient of 5.6–9.8°C and a spatial extent of ~310 × 310 km. Within these regions, we nested 180 study plots located in contrasting local land-use types, that is, forests, grasslands, arable land or settlement (local climate gradient 4.5–10°C). This approach achieved low correlations between climate and land use (proportional cover) at the regional and landscape scale with |r ≤ 0.33| and |r ≤ 0.29| respectively. Furthermore, using correlation heatmaps for local plot selection reduced potentially confounding relationships between landscape composition and configuration for plots located in forests, arable land and settlements.
The suggested design expands upon previous research in covering a significant range of environmental gradients and including a diversity of dominant land-use types at different scales within different climatic contexts. It allows independent assessment of the relative contribution of multi-scale climate and land use on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Understanding potential interdependencies among global change drivers is essential to develop effective restoration and mitigation strategies against biodiversity decline, especially in expectation of future climatic changes. Importantly, this study also provides a baseline for long-term ecological monitoring programs.
Effects of climate change‐induced events on forest ecosystem dynamics of composition, function and structure call for increased long‐term, interdisciplinary and integrated research on biodiversity indicators, in particular within strictly protected areas with extensive non‐intervention zones. The long‐established concept of forest supersites generally relies on long‐term funds from national agencies and goes beyond the logistic and financial capabilities of state‐ or region‐wide protected area administrations, universities and research institutes.
We introduce the concept of data pools as a smaller‐scale, user‐driven and reasonable alternative to co‐develop remote sensing and forest ecosystem science to validated products, biodiversity indicators and management plans. We demonstrate this concept with the Bohemian Forest Ecosystem Data Pool, which has been established as an interdisciplinary, international data pool within the strictly protected Bavarian Forest and Šumava National Parks and currently comprises 10 active partners. We demonstrate how the structure and impact of the data pool differs from comparable cases.
We assessed the international influence and visibility of the data pool with the help of a systematic literature search and a brief analysis of the results. Results primarily suggest an increase in the impact and visibility of published material during the life span of the data pool, with highest visibilities achieved by research conducted on leaf traits, vegetation phenology and 3D‐based forest inventory.
We conclude that the data pool results in an efficient contribution to the concept of global biodiversity observatory by evolving towards a training platform, functioning as a pool of data and algorithms, directly communicating with management for implementation and providing test fields for feasibility studies on earth observation missions.