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Background: Accurate assessment of hepatic fibrosis in patients with chronic HBeAg-negative Hepatitis B is of crucial importance not only to predict the long-term clinical course, but also to evaluate antiviral therapy indication. The aim of this study was to prospectively assess the utility of point shear wave elastography (pSWE) for longitudinal non-invasive fibrosis assessment in a large cohort of untreated patients with chronic HBeAg-negative hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. Methods: 407 consecutive patients with HBeAg-negative HBV infection who underwent pSWE, transient elastography (TE) as well as laboratory fibrosis markers, including fibrosis index based on four factors (FIB-4), aspartate to platelet ratio index (APRI) and FibroTest, on the same day were prospectively followed up for six years. Patients were classified into one of the three groups: inactive carriers (IC; HBV-DNA <2000 IU/mL and ALT <40 U/L); grey zone group 1 (GZ-1; HBV DNA <2000 IU/mL and ALT >40 U/L); grey zone group 2 (GZ-2; HBV-DNA >2000 IU/mL and ALT <40 U/L). Results: pSWE results were significantly correlated with TE (r = 0.29, p < 0.001) and APRI (r = 0.17; p = 0.005). Median pSWE values did not differ between IC, GZ-1 and GZ-2 patients (p = 0.82, p = 0.17, p = 0.34). During six years of follow-up, median pSWE and TE values did not differ significantly over time (TE: p = 0.27; pSWE: p = 0.05). Conclusion: Our data indicate that pSWE could be useful for non-invasive fibrosis assessment and follow-up in patients with HBeAg-negative chronic HBV infection.
Background: Different parameters have been determined for prediction of treatment outcome in hepatitis c virus genotype 1 infected patients undergoing pegylated interferon, ribavirin combination therapy. Results on the importance of vitamin D levels are conflicting. In the present study, a comprehensive analysis of vitamin D levels before and during therapy together with single nucleotide polymorphisms involved in vitamin D metabolism in the context of other known treatment predictors has been performed.
Methods: In a well characterized prospective cohort of 398 genotype 1 infected patients treated with pegylated interferon-alpha and ribavirin for 24-72 weeks (INDIV-2 study) 25-OH-vitamin D levels and different single nucleotide polymorphisms were analyzed together with known biochemical parameters for a correlation with virologic treatment outcome.
Results: Fluctuations of more than 5 (10) ng/ml in 25-OH-vitamin D-levels have been observed in 66 (39) % of patients during the course of antiviral therapy and neither pretreatment nor under treatment 25-OH-vitamin D-levels were associated with treatment outcome. The DHCR7-TT-polymorphism within the 7-dehydrocholesterol-reductase showed a significant association (P = 0.031) to sustained viral response in univariate analysis. Among numerous further parameters analyzed we found that age (OR = 1.028, CI = 1.002-1.056, P = 0.035), cholesterol (OR = 0.983, CI = 0.975-0.991, P<0.001), ferritin (OR = 1.002, CI = 1.000-1.004, P = 0.033), gGT (OR = 1.467, CI = 1.073-2.006, P = 0.016) and IL28B-genotype (OR = 2.442, CI = 1.271-4.695, P = 0.007) constituted the strongest predictors of treatment response.
Conclusions: While 25-OH-vitamin D-levels levels show considerable variations during the long-lasting course of antiviral therapy they do not show any significant association to treatment outcome in genotype 1 infected patients.
Background & Aims
Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are increasingly a cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma globally. This burden is expected to increase as epidemics of obesity, diabetes and metabolic syndrome continue to grow. The goal of this analysis was to use a Markov model to forecast NAFLD disease burden using currently available data.
Methods
A model was used to estimate NAFLD and NASH disease progression in eight countries based on data for adult prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Published estimates and expert consensus were used to build and validate the model projections.
Results
If obesity and DM level off in the future, we project a modest growth in total NAFLD cases (0–30%), between 2016–2030, with the highest growth in China as a result of urbanization and the lowest growth in Japan as a result of a shrinking population. However, at the same time, NASH prevalence will increase 15–56%, while liver mortality and advanced liver disease will more than double as a result of an aging/increasing population.
Conclusions
NAFLD and NASH represent a large and growing public health problem and efforts to understand this epidemic and to mitigate the disease burden are needed. If obesity and DM continue to increase at current and historical rates, both NAFLD and NASH prevalence are expected to increase. Since both are reversible, public health campaigns to increase awareness and diagnosis, and to promote diet and exercise can help manage the growth in future disease burden.
Lay summary
Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis can lead to advanced liver disease. Both conditions are becoming increasingly prevalent as the epidemics of obesity and diabetes continue to increase. A mathematical model was built to understand how the disease burden associated with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis will change over time. Results suggest increasing cases of advanced liver disease and liver-related mortality in the coming years.