004 Datenverarbeitung; Informatik
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Conversational agents and smart speakers have grown in popularity offering a variety of options for use, which are available through intuitive speech operation. In contrast to the standard dyad of a single user and a device, voice-controlled operations can be observed by further attendees resulting in new, more social usage scenarios. Referring to the concept of ‘media equation’ and to research on the idea of ‘computers as social actors,’ which describes the potential of technology to trigger emotional reactions in users, this paper asks for the capacity of smart speakers to elicit empathy in observers of interactions. In a 2 × 2 online experiment, 140 participants watched a video of a man talking to an Amazon Echo either rudely or neutrally (factor 1), addressing it as ‘Alexa’ or ‘Computer’ (factor 2). Controlling for participants’ trait empathy, the rude treatment results in participants’ significantly higher ratings of empathy with the device, compared to the neutral treatment. The form of address had no significant effect. Results were independent of the participants’ gender and usage experience indicating a rather universal effect, which confirms the basic idea of the media equation. Implications for users, developers and researchers were discussed in the light of (future) omnipresent voice-based technology interaction scenarios.
Cosmology often uses intricate formulas and mathematics to derive new theories and concepts. We do something different in this paper: We look at biological processes and derive from these heuristics so that the revised cosmology agrees with astronomical observations but does also agree with standard biological observations. We show that we then have to replace any type of singularity at the start of the universe by a condensation nucleus and that the very early period of the universe usually assumed to be inflation has to be replaced by a period of rapid crystal growth as in Weiss magnetization domains.
Impressively, these minor modifications agree well with astronomical observations including removing the strong inflation perturbations which were never observed in the recent BICEP2 experiments. Furthermore, looking at biological principles suggests that such a new theory with a condensation nucleus at start and a first rapid phase of magnetization-like growth of the ordered, physical laws obeying lattice we live in is in fact the only convincing theory of the early phases of our universe that also is compatible with current observations.
We show in detail in the following that such a process of crystal creation, breaking of new crystal seeds and ultimate evaporation of the present crystal readily leads over several generations to an evolution and selection of better, more stable and more self-organizing crystals. Moreover, this explains the “fine-tuning” question why our universe is fine-tuned to favor life: Our Universe is so self-organizing to have enough offspring and the detailed physics involved is at the same time highly favorable for all self-organizing processes including life.
This biological theory contrasts with current standard inflation cosmologies. The latter do not perform well in explaining any phenomena of sophisticated structure creation or self-organization. As proteins can only thermodynamically fold by increasing the entropy in the solution around them we suggest for cosmology a condensation nucleus for a universe can form only in a “chaotic ocean” of string-soup or quantum foam if the entropy outside of the nucleus rapidly increases. We derive an interaction potential for 1 to n-dimensional strings or quantum-foams and show that they allow only 1D, 2D, 4D or octonion interactions. The latter is the richest structure and agrees to the E8 symmetry fundamental to particle physics and also compatible with the ten dimensional string theory E8 which is part of the M-theory. Interestingly, any other interactions of other dimensionality can be ruled out using Hurwitz compositional theorem. Crystallization explains also extremely well why we have only one macroscopic reality and where the worldlines of alternative trajectories exist: They are in other planes of the crystal and for energy reasons they crystallize mostly at the same time, yielding a beautiful and stable crystal. This explains decoherence and allows to determine the size of Planck´s quantum h (very small as separation of crystal layers by energy is extremely strong).
Ultimate dissolution of real crystals suggests an explanation for dark energy agreeing with estimates for the “big rip”. The halo distribution of dark matter favoring galaxy formation is readily explained by a crystal seed starting with unit cells made of normal and dark matter.
That we have only matter and not antimatter can be explained as there may be right handed mattercrystals and left-handed antimatter crystals. Similarly, real crystals are never perfect and we argue that exactly such irregularities allow formation of galaxies, clusters and superclusters. Finally, heuristics from genetics suggest to look for a systems perspective to derive correct vacuum and Higgs Boson energies.
The phase space for the standard model of the basic four forces for n quanta includes all possible ensemble combinations of their quantum states m, a total of n**m states. Neighbor states reach according to transition possibilities (S-matrix) with emergent time from entropic ensemble gradients.
We replace the “big bang” by a condensation event (interacting qubits become decoherent) and inflation by a crystallization event – the crystal unit cell guarantees same symmetries everywhere. Interacting qubits solidify and form a rapidly growing domain where the n**m states become separated ensemble states, rising long-range forces stop ultimately further growth. After that very early events, standard cosmology with the hot fireball model takes over. Our theory agrees well with lack of inflation traces in cosmic background measurements, large-scale structure of voids and filaments, supercluster formation, galaxy formation, dominance of matter and life-friendliness.
We prove qubit interactions to be 1,2,4 or 8 dimensional (agrees with E8 symmetry of our universe). Repulsive forces at ultrashort distances result from quantization, long-range forces limit crystal growth. Crystals come and go in the qubit ocean. This selects for the ability to lay seeds for new crystals, for self-organization and life-friendliness.
We give energy estimates for free qubits vs bound qubits, misplacements in the qubit crystal and entropy increase during qubit decoherence / crystal formation. Scalar fields for color interaction and gravity derive from the permeating qubit-interaction field. Hence, vacuum energy gets low only inside the qubit crystal. Condensed mathematics may advantageously model free / bound qubits in phase space.
Die Entwicklung eines wissensbasierten Systems, speziell eines Diagnosesystems, ist eine Teildisziplin der künstlichen Intelligenz und angewandten Informatik. Im Laufe der Forschung auf diesem Gebiet wurden verschiedene Lösungsansätze mit unterschiedlichem Erfolg bei der Anwendung in der Kraftfahrzeugdiagnose entwickelt. Diagnosesysteme in Vertragswerkstätten, das heißt in Fahrzeughersteller gebundenen Werkstätten, wenden hauptsächlich die fallbasierte Diagnostik an. Zum einen hält sich hier die Fahrzeugvielfalt in Grenzen und zum anderen besteht eine Meldepflicht bei neuen, nicht im System vorhandenen Fällen. Die freien Werkstätten verfügen nicht über eine solche Datenbank. Somit ist der fallbasierte Ansatz schwer umsetzbar. In freien Werkstätten - Fahrzeughersteller unabhängigen Werkstätten - basiert die Fehlersuche hauptsächlich auf Fehlerbäumen. Wegen der wachsenden Fahrzeugkomplexität, welche wesentlich durch die stark zunehmende Anzahl der durch mechatronische Systeme realisierten Funktionen bedingt ist, und der steigenden Typenvielfalt ist die geführte Fehlersuche in freien Werkstätten nicht immer zielführend. Um die Unterstützung des Personals von freien Werkstätten bei der zukünftigen Fehlersuche zu gewährleisten, werden neue Generationen von herstellerunabhängigen Diagnosetools benötigt, die die Probleme der Variantenvielfalt und Komplexität lösen. In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird ein Lösungsansatz vorgestellt, der einen qualitativen, modellbasierten Diagnoseansatz mit einem auf heuristischem Diagnosewissen basierenden Ansatz vereint. Neben der Grundlage zur Wissenserhebung werden in dieser Arbeit die theoretische Grundlage zur Beherrschung der Variantenvielfalt sowie die Tests für die erstellten Diagnosemodelle behandelt. Die Diagnose ist symptombasiert und die Inferenzmechanismen zur Verarbeitung des Diagnosewissens sind eine Kombination aus Propagierung der abweichenden physikalischen Größen im Modell und der Auswertung des heuristischen Wissens. Des Weiteren werden in dieser Arbeit verschiedene Aspekte der Realisierung der entwickelten theoretischen Grundlagen dargestellt, zum Beispiel: Systemarchitektur, Wissenserhebungsprozess, Ablauf des Diagnosevorgangs in den Werkstätten. Die Evaluierung der entwickelten Lösung bei der Wissenserhebung in Form von Modellerstellungen und Modellierungsworkshops sowie Feldtests dient nicht nur zur Bestätigung des entwickelten Ansatzes, sondern auch zur Ideenfindung für die Integration der entwickelten Tools in die existierende IT-Infrastruktur.
The rating of perceived exertion (RPE) is a subjective load marker and may assist in individualizing training prescription, particularly by adjusting running intensity. Unfortunately, RPE has shortcomings (e.g., underreporting) and cannot be monitored continuously and automatically throughout a training sessions. In this pilot study, we aimed to predict two classes of RPE (≤15 “Somewhat hard to hard” on Borg’s 6–20 scale vs. RPE >15 in runners by analyzing data recorded by a commercially-available smartwatch with machine learning algorithms. Twelve trained and untrained runners performed long-continuous runs at a constant self-selected pace to volitional exhaustion. Untrained runners reported their RPE each kilometer, whereas trained runners reported every five kilometers. The kinetics of heart rate, step cadence, and running velocity were recorded continuously ( 1 Hz ) with a commercially-available smartwatch (Polar V800). We trained different machine learning algorithms to estimate the two classes of RPE based on the time series sensor data derived from the smartwatch. Predictions were analyzed in different settings: accuracy overall and per runner type; i.e., accuracy for trained and untrained runners independently. We achieved top accuracies of 84.8 % for the whole dataset, 81.8 % for the trained runners, and 86.1 % for the untrained runners. We predict two classes of RPE with high accuracy using machine learning and smartwatch data. This approach might aid in individualizing training prescriptions.
Immersive virtual environments provide users with the opportunity to escape from the real world, but scripted dialogues can disrupt the presence within the world the user is trying to escape within. Both Non-Playable Character (NPC) to Player and NPC to NPC dialogue can be non-natural and the reliance on responding with pre-defined dialogue does not always meet the players emotional expectations or provide responses appropriate to the given context or world states. This paper investigates the application of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Natural Language Processing to generate dynamic human-like responses within a themed virtual world. Each thematic has been analysed against humangenerated responses for the same seed and demonstrates invariance of rating across a range of model sizes, but shows an effect of theme and the size of the corpus used for fine-tuning the context for the game world.
This paper gives an overview of our recent activities in the field of satellite communication networks, including an introduction to geostationary satellite systems and Low Earth Orbit megaconstellations. To mitigate the high latencies of geostationary satellite networks, TCP-splitting Performance Enhancing Proxies are deployed. However, these cannot be applied in the case of encrypted transport headers as it is the case for VPNs or QUIC. We summarize performance evaluation results from multiple measurement campaigns. In a recently concluded project, multipath communication was used to combine the advantages of very heterogeneous communication paths: low data rate, low latency (e.g., DSL light) and high data rate, high latency (e.g., geostationary satellite).
The correct behavior of spacecraft components is the foundation of unhindered mission operation. However, no technical system is free of wear and degradation. A malfunction of one single component might significantly alter the behavior of the whole spacecraft and may even lead to a complete mission failure. Therefore, abnormal component behavior must be detected early in order to be able to perform counter measures. A dedicated fault detection system can be employed, as opposed to classical health monitoring, performed by human operators, to decrease the response time to a malfunction. In this paper, we present a generic model-based diagnosis system, which detects faults by analyzing the spacecraft’s housekeeping data. The observed behavior of the spacecraft components, given by the housekeeping data is compared to their expected behavior, obtained through simulation. Each discrepancy between the observed and the expected behavior of a component generates a so-called symptom. Given the symptoms, the diagnoses are derived by computing sets of components whose malfunction might cause the observed discrepancies. We demonstrate the applicability of the diagnosis system by using modified housekeeping data of the qualification model of an actual spacecraft and outline the advantages and drawbacks of our approach.
This work deals with teams in teleoperation scenarios, where one human team partner (supervisor) guides and controls multiple remote entities (either robotic or human) and coordinates their tasks. Such a team needs an appropriate infrastructure for sharing information and commands. The robots need to have a level of autonomy, which matches the assigned task. The humans in the team have to be provided with autonomous support, e.g. for information integration. Design and capabilities of the human-robot interfaces will strongly influence the performance of the team as well as the subjective feeling of the human team partners. Here, it is important to elaborate the information demand as well as how information is presented. Such human-robot systems need to allow the supervisor to gain an understanding of what is going on in the remote environment (situation awareness) by providing the necessary information. This includes achieving fast assessment of the robot´s or remote human´s state. Processing, integration and organization of data as well as suitable autonomous functions support decision making and task allocation and help to decrease the workload in this multi-entity teleoperation task. Interaction between humans and robots is improved by a common world model and a responsive system and robots. The remote human profits from a simplified user interface providing exactly the information needed for the actual task at hand. The topic of this thesis is the investigation of such teleoperation interfaces in human-robot teams, especially for high-risk, time-critical, and dangerous tasks. The aim is to provide a suitable human-robot team structure as well as analyze the demands on the user interfaces. On one side, it will be looked on the theoretical background (model, interactions, and information demand). On the other side, real implementations for system, robots, and user interfaces are presented and evaluated as testbeds for the claimed requirements. Rescue operations, more precisely fire-fighting, was chosen as an exemplary application scenario for this work. The challenges in such scenarios are high (highly dynamic environments, high risk, time criticality etc.) and it can be expected that results can be transferred to other applications, which have less strict requirements. The present work contributes to the introduction of human-robot teams in task-oriented scenarios, such as working in high risk domains, e.g. fire-fighting. It covers the theoretical background of the required system, the analysis of related human factors concepts, as well as discussions on implementation. An emphasis is placed on user interfaces, their design, requirements and user testing, as well as on the used techniques (three-dimensional sensor data representation, mixed reality, and user interface design guidelines). Further, the potential integration of 3D sensor data as well as the visualization on stereo visualization systems is introduced.
Mapping and localization of mobile robots in an unknown environment are essential for most high-level operations like autonomous navigation or exploration. This paper presents a novel approach for combining estimated trajectories, namely curvefusion. The robot used in the experiments is equipped with a horizontally mounted 2D profiler, a constantly spinning 3D laser scanner and a GPS module. The proposed algorithm first combines trajectories from different sensors to optimize poses of the planar three degrees of freedom (DoF) trajectory, which is then fed into continuous-time simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) to further improve the trajectory. While state-of-the-art multi-sensor fusion methods mainly focus on probabilistic methods, our approach instead adopts a deformation-based method to optimize poses. To this end, a similarity metric for curved shapes is introduced into the robotics community to fuse the estimated trajectories. Additionally, a shape-based point correspondence estimation method is applied to the multi-sensor time calibration. Experiments show that the proposed fusion method can achieve relatively better accuracy, even if the error of the trajectory before fusion is large, which demonstrates that our method can still maintain a certain degree of accuracy in an environment where typical pose estimation methods have poor performance. In addition, the proposed time-calibration method also achieves high accuracy in estimating point correspondences.
To jointly provide different services/technologies, like IP and Ethernet or IP and SDH/SONET, in a single network, equipment of multiple technologies needs to be deployed to the sites/Points of Presence (PoP) and interconnected with each other. Therein, a technology may provide transport functionality to other technologies and increase the number of available resources by using multiplexing techniques. By providing its own switching functionality, each technology creates connections in a logical layer which leads to the notion of multi-layer networks. The design of such networks comprises the deployment and interconnection of components to suit to given traffic demands. To prevent traffic loss due to failures of networking equipment, protection mechanisms need to be established. In multi-layer networks, protection usually can be applied in any of the considered layers. In turn, the hierarchical structure of multi-layer networks also bears shared risk groups (SRG). To achieve a cost-optimal resilient network, an appropriate combination of multiplexing techniques, technologies, and their interconnections needs to be found. Thus, network design is a combinatorial problem with a large parameter and solution space. After the design stage, the resources of a multi-layer network can be provided to traffic demands. Especially, dynamic capacity provisioning requires interaction of sites and layers, as well as accurate retrieval of constraint information. In recent years, generalized multiprotocol label switching (GMPLS) and path computation elements (PCE) have emerged as possible approaches for these challenges. Like the design, the provisioning of multi-layer networks comprises a variety of optimization parameters, like blocking probability, resilience, and energy efficiency. In this work, we introduce several efficient heuristics to approach the considered optimization problems. We perform capital expenditure (CAPEX)-aware design of multi-layer networks from scratch, based on IST NOBEL phase 2 project's cost and equipment data. We comprise traffic and resilience requirements in different and multiple layers as well as different network architectures. On top of the designed networks, we consider the dynamic provisioning of multi-layer traffic based on the GMPLS and PCE architecture. We evaluate different PCE deployments, information retrieval strategies, and re-optimization. Finally, we show how information about provisioning utilization can be used to provide a feedback for network design.
Dynamic point cloud compression based on projections, surface reconstruction and video compression
(2021)
In this paper we will present a new dynamic point cloud compression based on different projection types and bit depth, combined with the surface reconstruction algorithm and video compression for obtained geometry and texture maps. Texture maps have been compressed after creating Voronoi diagrams. Used video compression is specific for geometry (FFV1) and texture (H.265/HEVC). Decompressed point clouds are reconstructed using a Poisson surface reconstruction algorithm. Comparison with the original point clouds was performed using point-to-point and point-to-plane measures. Comprehensive experiments show better performance for some projection maps: cylindrical, Miller and Mercator projections.
Service orchestration requires enormous attention and is a struggle nowadays. Of course, virtualization provides a base level of abstraction for services to be deployable on a lot of infrastructures. With container virtualization, the trend to migrate applications to a micro-services level in order to be executable in Fog and Edge Computing environments increases manageability and maintenance efforts rapidly. Similarly, network virtualization adds effort to calibrate IP flows for Software-Defined Networks and eventually route it by means of Network Function Virtualization. Nevertheless, there are concepts like MAPE-K to support micro-service distribution in next-generation cloud and network environments. We want to explore, how a service distribution can be improved by adopting machine learning concepts for infrastructure or service changes. Therefore, we show how federated machine learning is integrated into a cloud-to-fog-continuum without burdening single nodes.
Mindfulness is considered an important factor of an individual's subjective well-being. Consequently, Human-Computer Interaction (HCI) has investigated approaches that strengthen mindfulness, i.e., by inventing multimedia technologies to support mindfulness meditation. These approaches often use smartphones, tablets, or consumer-grade desktop systems to allow everyday usage in users' private lives or in the scope of organized therapies. Virtual, Augmented, and Mixed Reality (VR, AR, MR; in short: XR) significantly extend the design space for such approaches. XR covers a wide range of potential sensory stimulation, perceptive and cognitive manipulations, content presentation, interaction, and agency. These facilities are linked to typical XR-specific perceptions that are conceptually closely related to mindfulness research, such as (virtual) presence and (virtual) embodiment. However, a successful exploitation of XR that strengthens mindfulness requires a systematic analysis of the potential interrelation and influencing mechanisms between XR technology, its properties, factors, and phenomena and existing models and theories of the construct of mindfulness. This article reports such a systematic analysis of XR-related research from HCI and life sciences to determine the extent to which existing research frameworks on HCI and mindfulness can be applied to XR technologies, the potential of XR technologies to support mindfulness, and open research gaps. Fifty papers of ACM Digital Library and National Institutes of Health's National Library of Medicine (PubMed) with and without empirical efficacy evaluation were included in our analysis. The results reveal that at the current time, empirical research on XR-based mindfulness support mainly focuses on therapy and therapeutic outcomes. Furthermore, most of the currently investigated XR-supported mindfulness interactions are limited to vocally guided meditations within nature-inspired virtual environments. While an analysis of empirical research on those systems did not reveal differences in mindfulness compared to non-mediated mindfulness practices, various design proposals illustrate that XR has the potential to provide interactive and body-based innovations for mindfulness practice. We propose a structured approach for future work to specify and further explore the potential of XR as mindfulness-support. The resulting framework provides design guidelines for XR-based mindfulness support based on the elements and psychological mechanisms of XR interactions.
In the last years, visual methods have been introduced in industrial software production and teaching of software engineering. In particular, the international standardization of a graphical software engineering language, the Unified Modeling Language (UML) was a reason for this tendency. Unfortunately, various problems exist in concrete realizations of tools, e.g. due to a missing compliance to the standard. One problem is the automatic layout, which is required for a consistent automatic software design. The thesis derives reasons and criteria for an automatic layout method, which produces drawings of UML class diagrams according to the UML specification and issues of human computer interaction, e.g. readability. A unique set of aesthetic criteria is combined from four different disciplines involved in this topic. Based on these aethetic rules, a hierarchical layout algorithm is developed, analyzed, measured by specialized measuring techniques and compared to related work. Then, the realization of the algorithm as a Java framework is given as an architectural description. Finally, adaptions to anticipated future changes of the UML, improvements of the framework and example drawings of the implementation are given.
Time-to-Live (TTL) caches decouple the occupancy of objects in cache through object-specific validity timers. Stateof- the art techniques provide exact methods for the calculation of object-specific hit probabilities given entire cache hierarchies with random inter-cache network delays. The system hit probability is a provider-centric metric as it relates to the origin offload, i.e., the decrease in the number of requests that are served by the content origin server. In this paper we consider a user-centric metric, i.e., the response time, which is shown to be structurally different from the system hit probability. Equipped with the state-of-theart exact modeling technique using Markov-arrival processes we derive expressions for the expected object response time and pave a way for its optimization under network delays.
Natural walking in virtual reality games is constrained by the physical boundaries defined by the size of the player’s tracking space. Impossible spaces, a redirected walking technique, enlarge the virtual environment by creating overlapping architecture and letting multiple locations occupy the same physical space. Within certain thresholds, this is subtle to the player. In this paper, we present our approach to implement such impossible spaces and describe how we handled challenges like objects with simulated physics or precomputed global illumination.
Though several previous studies reported the in vitro and in vivo antioxidant effect of kinetin (Kn), details on its action in cisplatin-induced toxicity are still scarce. In this study we evaluated, for the first time, the effects of kinetin in cisplatin (cp)- induced liver and lymphocyte toxicity in rats. Wistar male albino rats were divided into nine groups: (i) the control (C), (ii) groups 2,3 and 4, which received 0.25, 0.5 and 1 mg/kg kinetin for 10 days; (iii) the cisplatin (cp) group, which received a single intraperitoneal injection of CP (7.0 mg/kg); and (iv) groups 6, 7, 8 and 9, which received, for 10 days, 0.25, 0.5 and 1 mg/kg kinetin or 200 mg/kg vitamin C, respectively, and Cp on the fourth day. CP-injected rats showed a significant impairment in biochemical, oxidative stress and inflammatory parameters in hepatic tissue and lymphocytes. PCR showed a profound increase in caspase-3, and a significant decline in AKT gene expression. Intriguingly, Kn treatment restored the biochemical, redox status and inflammatory parameters. Hepatic AKT and caspase-3 expression as well as CD95 levels in lymphocytes were also restored. In conclusion, Kn mitigated oxidative imbalance, inflammation and apoptosis in CP-induced liver and lymphocyte toxicity; therefore, it can be considered as a promising therapy.
In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird das Problem der Kalibrierung Agenten-basierter Simulationen (ABS) behandelt, also das Problem, die Parameterwerte eines Agenten-basierten Simulationsmodells so einzustellen, dass valides Simulationsverhalten erreicht wird. Das Kalibrierungsproblem für Simulationen an sich ist nicht neu und ist im Rahmen klassischer Simulationsparadigmen, wie z.B. der Makro-Simulation, fester Bestandteil der Forschung. Im Vergleich zu den dort betrachteten Kalibrierungsproblemen zeichnet sich das Kalibrierungsproblem für ABS jedoch durch eine Reihe zusätzlicher Herausforderungen aus, welche die direkte Anwendung existierender Kalibrierungsverfahren in begrenzter Zeit erschweren, bzw. nicht mehr sinnvoll zulassen. Die Lösung dieser Probleme steht im Zentrum dieser Dissertation: Das Ziel besteht darin, den Nutzer bei der Kalibrierung von ABS auf der Basis von unzureichenden, potentiell fehlerhaften Daten und Wissen zu unterstützen. Dabei sollen drei Hauptprobleme gelöst werden: 1)Vereinfachung der Kalibrierung großer Agenten-Parametermengen auf der Mikro- Ebene in Agenten-basierten Simulationen durch Ausnutzung der spezifischen Struktur von ABS (nämlich dem Aufbau aus einer Menge von Agentenmodellen). 2)Kalibrierung Agenten-basierter Simulationen, so dass auf allen relevanten Beobachtungsebenen valides Simulationsverhalten erzeugt wird (mindestens Mikro und Makro-Ebene). Als erschwerende Randbedingung muss die Kalibrierung unter der Voraussetzung einer Makro-Mikro-Wissenslücke durchgeführt werden. 3)Kalibrierung Agenten-basierter Simulationen auf der Mikro-Ebene unter der Voraussetzung, dass zur Kalibrierung einzelner Agentenmodelle nicht ausreichend und potentiell verfälschte Daten zur Verhaltensvalidierung zur Verfügung stehen. Hierzu wird in dieser Arbeit das sogenannte Makro-Mikro-Verfahren zur Kalibrierung von Agenten-basierten Simulationen entwickelt. Das Verfahren besteht aus einem Basisverfahren, das im Verlauf der Arbeit um verschiedene Zusatzverfahren erweitert wird. Das Makro-Mikro-Verfahren und seine Erweiterungen sollen dazu dienen, die Modellkalibrierung trotz stark verrauschter Daten und eingeschränktem Wissen über die Wirkungszusammenhänge im Originalsystem geeignet zu ermöglichen und dabei den Kalibrierungsprozess zu beschleunigen: 1) Makro-Mikro-Kalibrierungsverfahren: Das in dieser Arbeit entwickelte Makro- Mikro-Verfahren unterstützt den Nutzer durch eine kombinierte Kalibrierung auf der Mikro- und der Makro-Beobachtungsebene, die gegebenenfalls durch Zwischenebenen erweitert werden kann. Der Grundgedanke des Verfahrens besteht darin, das Kalibrierungsproblem in eines auf aggregierter Verhaltensebene und eines auf der Ebene des Mikro-Agentenverhaltens aufzuteilen. Auf der Makro-Ebene wird nach validen idealen aggregierten Verhaltensmodellen (IVM) der Agenten gesucht. Auf der Mikro-Ebene wird versucht die individuellen Modelle der Agenten auf Basis des erwünschten Gesamtverhaltens und der ermittelten IVM so zu kalibrieren, das insgesamt Simulationsverhalten entsteht, das sowohl auf Mikro- als auch auf Makro-Ebene valide ist. 2) Erweiterung 1: Robuste Kalibrierung: Um den Umgang mit potentiell verrauschten Validierungskriterien (d.h. mit verrauschten Daten über ein Originalsystem, auf denen die Validierungskriterien der Simulation beruhen) und Modellteilen während der Kalibrierung von ABS zu ermöglichen, wird eine robuste Kalibrierungstechnik zur Anwendung im Makro-Mikro-Verfahren entwickelt. 3) Erweiterung 2: Kalibrierung mit Heterogenitätssuche: Als zweite Erweiterung des Makro-Mikro-Verfahrens wird ein Verfahren entwickelt, das das Problem des unklaren Detaillierungsgrades von ABS auf der Ebene der Parameterwerte adressiert. Prinzipiell kann zwar jeder Agent unterschiedliche Parameterwerte verwenden, obwohl eine geringere Heterogenität zur Erzeugung validen Verhaltens ausreichend wäre. Die entwickelte Erweiterung versucht, während der Kalibrierung, eine geeignete Heterogenitätsausprägung für die Parameterwerte der Agenten zu ermitteln. Unter einer Heterogenitätsausprägung wird dabei eine Einteilung der simulierten Agenten in Gruppen mit jeweils gleichen Parameterwerten verstanden. Die Heterogenitätssuche dient dazu, einen Kompromiss zu finden zwischen der Notwendigkeit, sehr große Parametersuchräume durchsuchen zu müssen und gleichzeitig den Suchraum so klein wie möglich halten zu wollen.
No abstract available