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Institute
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Statistical modeling of phenology in Bavaria based on past and future meteorological information
(2020)
Plant phenology is well known to be affected by meteorology. Observed changes in the occurrence of phenological phases arecommonly considered some of the most obvious effects of climate change. However, current climate models lack a representationof vegetation suitable for studying future changes in phenology itself. This study presents a statistical-dynamical modelingapproach for Bavaria in southern Germany, using over 13,000 paired samples of phenological and meteorological data foranalyses and climate change scenarios provided by a state-of-the-art regional climate model (RCM). Anomalies of severalmeteorological variables were used as predictors and phenological anomalies of the flowering date of the test plantForsythiasuspensaas predictand. Several cross-validated prediction models using various numbers and differently constructed predictorswere developed, compared, and evaluated via bootstrapping. As our approach needs a small set of meteorological observationsper phenological station, it allows for reliable parameter estimation and an easy transfer to other regions. The most robust andsuccessful model comprises predictors based on mean temperature, precipitation, wind velocity, and snow depth. Its averagecoefficient of determination and root mean square error (RMSE) per station are 60% and ± 8.6 days, respectively. However, theprediction error strongly differs among stations. When transferred to other indicator plants, this method achieves a comparablelevel of predictive accuracy. Its application to two climate change scenarios reveals distinct changes for various plants andregions. The flowering date is simulated to occur between 5 and 25 days earlier at the end of the twenty-first century comparedto the phenology of the reference period (1961–1990).
Coal mining, an important human activity, disturbs soil organic carbon (SOC) accumulation and decomposition, eventually affecting terrestrial carbon cycling and the sustainability of human society. However, changes of SOC content and their relation with influential factors in coal mining areas remained unclear. In the study, predictive models of SOC content were developed based on field sampling and Landsat images for different land-use types (grassland, forest, farmland, and bare land) of the largest coal mining area in China (i.e., Shendong). The established models were employed to estimate SOC content across the Shendong mining area during 1990–2020, followed by an investigation into the impacts of climate change and human disturbance on SOC content by a Geo-detector. Results showed that the models produced satisfactory results (R\(^2\) > 0.69, p < 0.05), demonstrating that SOC content over a large coal mining area can be effectively assessed using remote sensing techniques. Results revealed that average SOC content in the study area rose from 5.67 gC·kg\(^{−1}\) in 1990 to 9.23 gC·kg\(^{−1}\) in 2010 and then declined to 5.31 gC·Kg\(^{−1}\) in 2020. This could be attributed to the interaction between the disturbance of soil caused by coal mining and the improvement of eco-environment by land reclamation. Spatially, the SOC content of farmland was the highest, followed by grassland, and that of bare land was the lowest. SOC accumulation was inhibited by coal mining activities, with the effect of high-intensity mining being lower than that of moderate- and low-intensity mining activities. Land use was found to be the strongest individual influencing factor for SOC content changes, while the interaction between vegetation coverage and precipitation exerted the most significant influence on the variability of SOC content. Furthermore, the influence of mining intensity combined with precipitation was 10 times higher than that of mining intensity alone.
Unprecedented urbanization in particular in countries of the global south result in informal urban development processes, especially in mega cities. With an estimated 1 billion slum dwellers globally, the United Nations have made the fight against poverty the number one sustainable development goal. To provide better infrastructure and thus a better life to slum dwellers, detailed information on the spatial location and size of slums is of crucial importance. In the past, remote sensing has proven to be an extremely valuable and effective tool for mapping slums. The nature of used mapping approaches by machine learning, however, made it necessary to invest a lot of effort in training the models. Recent advances in deep learning allow for transferring trained fully convolutional networks (FCN) from one data set to another. Thus, in our study we aim at analyzing transfer learning capabilities of FCNs to slum mapping in various satellite images. A model trained on very high resolution optical satellite imagery from QuickBird is transferred to Sentinel-2 and TerraSAR-X data. While free-of-charge Sentinel-2 data is widely available, its comparably lower resolution makes slum mapping a challenging task. TerraSAR-X data on the other hand, has a higher resolution and is considered a powerful data source for intra-urban structure analysis. Due to the different image characteristics of SAR compared to optical data, however, transferring the model could not improve the performance of semantic segmentation but we observe very high accuracies for mapped slums in the optical data: QuickBird image obtains 86–88% (positive prediction value and sensitivity) and a significant increase for Sentinel-2 applying transfer learning can be observed (from 38 to 55% and from 79 to 85% for PPV and sensitivity, respectively). Using transfer learning proofs extremely valuable in retrieving information on small-scaled urban structures such as slum patches even in satellite images of decametric resolution.
Human health is known to be affected by the physical environment. Various environmental influences have been identified to benefit or challenge people's physical condition. Their heterogeneous distribution in space results in unequal burdens depending on the place of living. In addition, since societal groups tend to also show patterns of segregation, this leads to unequal exposures depending on social status. In this context, environmental justice research examines how certain social groups are more affected by such exposures. Yet, analyses of this per se spatial phenomenon are oftentimes criticized for using “essentially aspatial” data or methods which neglect local spatial patterns by aggregating environmental conditions over large areas. Recent technological and methodological developments in satellite remote sensing have proven to provide highly detailed information on environmental conditions. This narrative review therefore discusses known influences of the urban environment on human health and presents spatial data and applications for analyzing these influences. Furthermore, it is discussed how geographic data are used in general and in the interdisciplinary research field of environmental justice in particular. These considerations include the modifiable areal unit problem and ecological fallacy. In this review we argue that modern earth observation data can represent an important data source for research on environmental justice and health. Especially due to their high level of spatial detail and the provided large-area coverage, they allow for spatially continuous description of environmental characteristics. As a future perspective, ongoing earth observation missions, as well as processing architectures, ensure data availability and applicability of ’big earth data’ for future environmental justice analyses.
No abstract available.
The use of inverse methods allow efficient model calibration. This study employs PEST to calibrate a large catchment scale transient flow model. Results are demonstrated by comparing manually calibrated approaches with the automated approach. An advanced Tikhonov regularization algorithm was employed for carrying out the automated pilot point (PP) method. The results indicate that automated PP is more flexible and robust as compared to other approaches. Different statistical indicators show that this method yields reliable calibration as values of coefficient of determination (R-2) range from 0.98 to 0.99, Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (ME) range from 0.964 to 0.976, and root mean square errors (RMSE) range from 1.68 m to 1.23 m, for manual and automated approaches, respectively. Validation results of automated PP show ME as 0.969 and RMSE as 1.31 m. The results of output sensitivity suggest that hydraulic conductivity is a more influential parameter. Considering the limitations of the current study, it is recommended to perform global sensitivity and linear uncertainty analysis for the better estimation of the modelling results.
Water crises are becoming severe in recent times, further fueled by population increase and climate change. They result in complex and unsustainable water management. Spatial estimation of consumptive water use is vital for performance assessment of the irrigation system using Remote Sensing (RS). For this study, its estimation is done using the Soil Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) approach. Performance indicators including equity, adequacy, and reliability were worked out at various spatiotemporal scales. Moreover, optimization and sustainable use of water resources are not possible without knowing the factors mainly influencing consumptive water use of major crops. For that purpose, random forest regression modelling was employed using various sets of factors for site-specific, proximity, and cropping system. The results show that the system is underperforming both for Kharif (i.e., summer) and Rabi (i.e., winter) seasons. Performance indicators highlight poor water distribution in the system, a shortage of water supply, and unreliability. The results are relatively good for Rabi as compared to Kharif, with an overall poor situation for both seasons. Factors importance varies for different crops. Overall, distance from canal, road density, canal density, and farm approachability are the most important factors for explaining consumptive water use. Auditing of consumptive water use shows the potential for resource optimization through on-farm water management by the targeted approach. The results are based on the present situation without considering future changes in canal water supply and consumptive water use under climate change.
The monitoring of land cover and land use change is critical for assessing the provision of ecosystem services. One of the sources for long-term land cover change quantification is through the classification of historical and/or current maps. Little research has been done on historical maps using Object-Based Image Analysis (OBIA). This study applied an object-based classification using eCognition tool for analyzing the land cover based on historical maps in the Main river catchment, Upper Franconia, Germany. This allowed land use change analysis between the 1850s and 2015, a time span which covers the phase of industrialization of landscapes in central Europe. The results show a strong increase in urban area by 2600%, a severe loss of cropland (−24%), a moderate reduction in meadows (−4%), and a small gain in forests (+4%). The method proved useful for the application on historical maps due to the ability of the software to create semantic objects. The confusion matrix shows an overall accuracy of 82% for the automatic classification compared to manual reclassification considering all 17 sample tiles. The minimum overall accuracy was 65% for historical maps of poor quality and the maximum was 91% for very high-quality ones. Although accuracy is between high and moderate, coarse land cover patterns in the past and trends in land cover change can be analyzed. We conclude that such long-term analysis of land cover is a prerequisite for quantifying long-term changes in ecosystem services.
The analysis of the Earth system and interactions among its spheres is increasingly important to improve the understanding of global environmental change. In this regard, Earth observation (EO) is a valuable tool for monitoring of long term changes over the land surface and its features. Although investigations commonly study environmental change by means of a single EO-based land surface variable, a joint exploitation of multivariate land surface variables covering several spheres is still rarely performed. In this regard, we present a novel methodological framework for both, the automated processing of multisource time series to generate a unified multivariate feature space, as well as the application of statistical time series analysis techniques to quantify land surface change and driving variables. In particular, we unify multivariate time series over the last two decades including vegetation greenness, surface water area, snow cover area, and climatic, as well as hydrological variables. Furthermore, the statistical time series analyses include quantification of trends, changes in seasonality, and evaluation of drivers using the recently proposed causal discovery algorithm Peter and Clark Momentary Conditional Independence (PCMCI). We demonstrate the functionality of our methodological framework using Indo-Gangetic river basins in South Asia as a case study. The time series analyses reveal increasing trends in vegetation greenness being largely dependent on water availability, decreasing trends in snow cover area being mostly negatively coupled to temperature, and trends of surface water area to be spatially heterogeneous and linked to various driving variables. Overall, the obtained results highlight the value and suitability of this methodological framework with respect to global climate change research, enabling multivariate time series preparation, derivation of detailed information on significant trends and seasonality, as well as detection of causal links with minimal user intervention. This study is the first to use multivariate time series including several EO-based variables to analyze land surface dynamics over the last two decades using the causal discovery algorithm PCMCI.
Peatlands located on slopes (herein called slope bogs) are typical landscape units in the Hunsrueck, a low mountain range in Southwestern Germany. The pathways of the water feeding the slope bogs have not yet been documented and analyzed. The identification of the different mechanisms allowing these peatlands to originate and survive requires a better understanding of the subsurface lithology and hydrogeology. Hence, we applied a multi-method approach to two case study sites in order to characterize the subsurface lithology and to image the variable spatio-temporal hydrological conditions. The combination of Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) and an ERT-Monitoring and Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR), in conjunction with direct methods and data (borehole drilling and meteorological data), allowed us to gain deeper insights into the subsurface characteristics and dynamics of the peatlands and their catchment area. The precipitation influences the hydrology of the peatlands as well as the interflow in the subsurface. Especially, the geoelectrical monitoring data, in combination with the precipitation and temperature data, indicate that there are several forces driving the hydrology and hydrogeology of the peatlands. While the water content of the uppermost layers changes with the weather conditions, the bottom layer seems to be more stable and changes to a lesser extent. At the selected case study sites, small differences in subsurface properties can have a huge impact on the subsurface hydrogeology and the water paths. Based on the collected data, conceptual models have been deduced for the two case study sites.