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The use of inverse methods allow efficient model calibration. This study employs PEST to calibrate a large catchment scale transient flow model. Results are demonstrated by comparing manually calibrated approaches with the automated approach. An advanced Tikhonov regularization algorithm was employed for carrying out the automated pilot point (PP) method. The results indicate that automated PP is more flexible and robust as compared to other approaches. Different statistical indicators show that this method yields reliable calibration as values of coefficient of determination (R-2) range from 0.98 to 0.99, Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (ME) range from 0.964 to 0.976, and root mean square errors (RMSE) range from 1.68 m to 1.23 m, for manual and automated approaches, respectively. Validation results of automated PP show ME as 0.969 and RMSE as 1.31 m. The results of output sensitivity suggest that hydraulic conductivity is a more influential parameter. Considering the limitations of the current study, it is recommended to perform global sensitivity and linear uncertainty analysis for the better estimation of the modelling results.
Water crises are becoming severe in recent times, further fueled by population increase and climate change. They result in complex and unsustainable water management. Spatial estimation of consumptive water use is vital for performance assessment of the irrigation system using Remote Sensing (RS). For this study, its estimation is done using the Soil Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) approach. Performance indicators including equity, adequacy, and reliability were worked out at various spatiotemporal scales. Moreover, optimization and sustainable use of water resources are not possible without knowing the factors mainly influencing consumptive water use of major crops. For that purpose, random forest regression modelling was employed using various sets of factors for site-specific, proximity, and cropping system. The results show that the system is underperforming both for Kharif (i.e., summer) and Rabi (i.e., winter) seasons. Performance indicators highlight poor water distribution in the system, a shortage of water supply, and unreliability. The results are relatively good for Rabi as compared to Kharif, with an overall poor situation for both seasons. Factors importance varies for different crops. Overall, distance from canal, road density, canal density, and farm approachability are the most important factors for explaining consumptive water use. Auditing of consumptive water use shows the potential for resource optimization through on-farm water management by the targeted approach. The results are based on the present situation without considering future changes in canal water supply and consumptive water use under climate change.
The monitoring of land cover and land use change is critical for assessing the provision of ecosystem services. One of the sources for long-term land cover change quantification is through the classification of historical and/or current maps. Little research has been done on historical maps using Object-Based Image Analysis (OBIA). This study applied an object-based classification using eCognition tool for analyzing the land cover based on historical maps in the Main river catchment, Upper Franconia, Germany. This allowed land use change analysis between the 1850s and 2015, a time span which covers the phase of industrialization of landscapes in central Europe. The results show a strong increase in urban area by 2600%, a severe loss of cropland (−24%), a moderate reduction in meadows (−4%), and a small gain in forests (+4%). The method proved useful for the application on historical maps due to the ability of the software to create semantic objects. The confusion matrix shows an overall accuracy of 82% for the automatic classification compared to manual reclassification considering all 17 sample tiles. The minimum overall accuracy was 65% for historical maps of poor quality and the maximum was 91% for very high-quality ones. Although accuracy is between high and moderate, coarse land cover patterns in the past and trends in land cover change can be analyzed. We conclude that such long-term analysis of land cover is a prerequisite for quantifying long-term changes in ecosystem services.
The ecosystem of the high northern latitudes is affected by the recently changing environmental conditions. The Arctic has undergone a significant climatic change over the last decades. The land coverage is changing and a phenological response to the warming is apparent. Remotely sensed data can assist the monitoring and quantification of these changes. The remote sensing of the Arctic was predominantly carried out by the usage of optical sensors but these encounter problems in the Arctic environment, e.g. the frequent cloud cover or the solar geometry. In contrast, the imaging of Synthetic Aperture Radar is not affected by the cloud cover and the acquisition of radar imagery is independent of the solar illumination. The objective of this work was to explore how polarimetric Synthetic Aperture Radar (PolSAR) data of TerraSAR-X, TanDEM-X, Radarsat-2 and ALOS PALSAR and interferometric-derived digital elevation model data of the TanDEM-X Mission can contribute to collect meaningful information on the actual state of the Arctic Environment. The study was conducted for Canadian sites of the Mackenzie Delta Region and Banks Island and in situ reference data were available for the assessment. The up-to-date analysis of the PolSAR data made the application of the Non-Local Means filtering and of the decomposition of co-polarized data necessary.
The Non-Local Means filter showed a high capability to preserve the image values, to keep the edges and to reduce the speckle. This supported not only the suitability for the interpretation but also for the classification. The classification accuracies of Non-Local Means filtered data were in average +10% higher compared to unfiltered images. The correlation of the co- and quad-polarized decomposition features was high for classes with distinct surface or double bounce scattering and a usage of the co-polarized data is beneficial for regions of natural land coverage and for low vegetation formations with little volume scattering. The evaluation further revealed that the X- and C-Band were most sensitive to the generalized land cover classes. It was found that the X-Band data were sensitive to low vegetation formations with low shrub density, the C-Band data were sensitive to the shrub density and the shrub dominated tundra. In contrast, the L-Band data were less sensitive to the land cover. Among the different dual-polarized data the HH/VV-polarized data were identified to be most meaningful for the characterization and classification, followed by the HH/HV-polarized and the VV/VH-polarized data. The quad-polarized data showed highest sensitivity to the land cover but differences to the co-polarized data were small. The accuracy assessment showed that spectral information was required for accurate land cover classification. The best results were obtained when spectral and radar information was combined. The benefit of including radar data in the classification was up to +15% accuracy and most significant for the classes wetland and sparse vegetated tundra. The best classifications were realized with quad-polarized C-Band and multispectral data and with co-polarized X-Band and multispectral data. The overall accuracy was up to 80% for unsupervised and up to 90% for supervised classifications. The results indicated that the shortwave co-polarized data show promise for the classification of tundra land cover since the polarimetric information is sensitive to low vegetation and the wetlands. Furthermore, co-polarized data provide a higher spatial resolution than the quad-polarized data.
The analysis of the intermediate digital elevation model data of the TanDEM-X showed a high potential for the characterization of the surface morphology. The basic and relative topographic features were shown to be of high relevance for the quantification of the surface morphology and an area-wide application is feasible. In addition, these data were of value for the classification and delineation of landforms. Such classifications will assist the delineation of geomorphological units and have potential to identify locations of actual and future morphologic activity.
The analysis of the Earth system and interactions among its spheres is increasingly important to improve the understanding of global environmental change. In this regard, Earth observation (EO) is a valuable tool for monitoring of long term changes over the land surface and its features. Although investigations commonly study environmental change by means of a single EO-based land surface variable, a joint exploitation of multivariate land surface variables covering several spheres is still rarely performed. In this regard, we present a novel methodological framework for both, the automated processing of multisource time series to generate a unified multivariate feature space, as well as the application of statistical time series analysis techniques to quantify land surface change and driving variables. In particular, we unify multivariate time series over the last two decades including vegetation greenness, surface water area, snow cover area, and climatic, as well as hydrological variables. Furthermore, the statistical time series analyses include quantification of trends, changes in seasonality, and evaluation of drivers using the recently proposed causal discovery algorithm Peter and Clark Momentary Conditional Independence (PCMCI). We demonstrate the functionality of our methodological framework using Indo-Gangetic river basins in South Asia as a case study. The time series analyses reveal increasing trends in vegetation greenness being largely dependent on water availability, decreasing trends in snow cover area being mostly negatively coupled to temperature, and trends of surface water area to be spatially heterogeneous and linked to various driving variables. Overall, the obtained results highlight the value and suitability of this methodological framework with respect to global climate change research, enabling multivariate time series preparation, derivation of detailed information on significant trends and seasonality, as well as detection of causal links with minimal user intervention. This study is the first to use multivariate time series including several EO-based variables to analyze land surface dynamics over the last two decades using the causal discovery algorithm PCMCI.
Peatlands located on slopes (herein called slope bogs) are typical landscape units in the Hunsrueck, a low mountain range in Southwestern Germany. The pathways of the water feeding the slope bogs have not yet been documented and analyzed. The identification of the different mechanisms allowing these peatlands to originate and survive requires a better understanding of the subsurface lithology and hydrogeology. Hence, we applied a multi-method approach to two case study sites in order to characterize the subsurface lithology and to image the variable spatio-temporal hydrological conditions. The combination of Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) and an ERT-Monitoring and Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR), in conjunction with direct methods and data (borehole drilling and meteorological data), allowed us to gain deeper insights into the subsurface characteristics and dynamics of the peatlands and their catchment area. The precipitation influences the hydrology of the peatlands as well as the interflow in the subsurface. Especially, the geoelectrical monitoring data, in combination with the precipitation and temperature data, indicate that there are several forces driving the hydrology and hydrogeology of the peatlands. While the water content of the uppermost layers changes with the weather conditions, the bottom layer seems to be more stable and changes to a lesser extent. At the selected case study sites, small differences in subsurface properties can have a huge impact on the subsurface hydrogeology and the water paths. Based on the collected data, conceptual models have been deduced for the two case study sites.
Climate change assessment in Southeast Asia and implications for agricultural production in Vietnam
(2011)
For many years, the study of climatic changes and variations has become the main objective of climatic research, as has been appreciated in the IPCC's reports and several publications regarding climatic evolution on different space-time scales. Since the 80's, many research groups have generated the extensive database from which the analysis of temperature, precipitation and other climatic parameters has been performed on a global scale (Jones et al., 1986; Hansen and Lebedeff, 1987, 1988; Vinnikov et al., 1987, 1990). The most important result of these research projects is the evidence of global warming during the 20th century, especially in the last two decades. However, numerous challenges still exist about the structure and dimension of the climatic change on a considerable scale. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out studies on a local and regional scale that allow for a more precise evaluation of the global warming phenomenon. A statistical analysis approach was developed to identify systematic differences between large-scale climatic variable from the General Circulation Models (GCM), NCEP, CRU re-analysis data set and climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation data). Models are able to satisfactorily reproduce the spatial patterns of the regional temperature and precipitation field. The response of the climate system to various emission scenario simulated by the GCM was used to analyze and predict the local climate change. The main objective of this study is to analysis the time evolution of the annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation during the 21st century and in order to contribute to our knowledge of temperature and precipitation trends over the century on a regional scale, not only in Southeast Asia but also in Vietnam; the study focuses to develop a dynamical – statistical model describing the relationship between the major climate variation and agricultural production in Vietnam. This study will be an important contribution to the present-day assessment of climate change impacts in the low latitudes. Regional scenarios of climate change, including both rainfall and mean temperature were then used to assess the impact of climate change on crop production in the region in order to evaluate the vulnerability of the system to global warming. Climate change has adverse impacts on the socio - economic development of all nations. But the degree of the impact will vary across nations. It is expected that changes in the earth's climate will impact on developing countries like Vietnam, in particular, hardest because their economies are strongly dependent on crude forms of natural resources and their economic structure is less flexible to adjust to such drastic changes. In Chapter 1: Introduction and background I describe in general terms climate, climate change, climate change model with benefits and problems. Chapter 2: methodology discusses the methods including interpolation, validation, clustering, correlation and regression which were applied in the study. Chapter 3 and chapter 4 describe the database and study area. The most important is chapter 5 Results. The last is chapter 6 Conclusion and outlook followed by the reference list and an appendix.
Diese Dissertationsarbeit liefert einen Beitrag zur Erfassung und Bewertung von Degradationsprozessen im semi-humiden Süden Spaniens. Der erste Teil der Arbeit widmet sich der detaillierten physisch-geographischen Charakterisierung des Großraumes, um danach in dem kleinräumigen Einzugsgebiet des Arroyo del Alforzo, einem Tributär des Río Turón, zwei unterschiedliche Ansätze zur Erfassung von die degradationsbeeinflussenden Fatoren wie Landnutzungswechsel und Starkniederschlagsereignissen in diesem Raum zu untersuchen. Anhand von drei Satellitenbildern wurde der Landnutzungswechsel ermittelt und im Untersuchungsgebiet die Abhängigkeit zu den Hangneigungen untersucht. Vor dem Hintergrund, daß unterschiedlich starke Hangneigungen einen unterschiedlich starken Einfluss auf die Abtragsdynamik bei Niederschlägen hat, wurden anhand der Landnutzungsklassifizierungen in Kombination mit den Hangneigungnen sensible Räume ermittelt. Ein weiterer Ansatz ist die Untersuchung von Tagesniederschlagsdaten auf Starkniederschlagsereignisse, mit dem Ziel, diese zu separieren. Es galt die Annahme, daß diese Starkniederschlagsereignisse im Einzugsgebiet des Arroyo del Alforzo oberflächlichen Abfluss generieren und somit ein bedeutender Sedimenteintrag aus den sensiblen Bereichen des Untersuchungsgebiet in den Stausee Conde de Guadalhorce stattfindet. Mittels sedimentstratigraphischer Untersuchungen an den Sedimenten des 2006 gewonnenen Bohrkerns aus dem Mündungsbereich des Arroyo del Alforzo in den Stausee Conde de Guadalhorce sollte dieser Sedimenteintrag identifierziert werden und somit ein zeitlicher und räumlicher Rückschluss auf die die Abtragung beeinflussenden faktoren Landnutzungswechsel, Hangneigung und Niederschlag efolgen. Die Annahme, dass sich diese Rückschlüsse ziehen lassen können auf der Grundlage des Bindeglieds „Sedimentbohrung“ erwies sich jedoch als zu eng. In einer abschliessenden Bewertung wurde erläutert, daß durch eine gezielte methodische Ergänzung jedoch die Möglichkeit besteht, die Unsicherheiten, die durch eine räumlich wie zeitlich inkonsistente Datenlage der Niederschlagsdaten und die in einem Stausee herrschende spezielle Akkumulationsdynamik hervorgerufen wurde, beseitigt werden kann.
Information about land use/land cover (LULC) and their changes is useful for different stakeholders to assess future pathways of sustainable land use for food production as well as for nature conservation. In this study, we assess LULC changes in the Kilombero catchment in Tanzania, an important area of recent development in East Africa. LULC change is assessed in two ways: first, post-classification comparison (PCC) which allows us to directly assess changes from one LULC class to another, and second, spectral change detection. We perform LULC classification by applying random forests (RF) on sets of multitemporal metrics that account for seasonal within-class dynamics. For the spectral change detection, we make use of the robust change vector analysis (RCVA) and determine those changes that do not necessarily lead to another class. The combination of the two approaches enables us to distinguish areas that show (a) only PCC changes, (b) only spectral changes that do not affect the classification of a pixel, (c) both types of change, or (d) no changes at all. Our results reveal that only one-quarter of the catchment has not experienced any change. One-third shows both, spectral changes and LULC conversion. Changes detected with both methods predominantly occur in two major regions, one in the West of the catchment, one in the Kilombero floodplain. Both regions are important areas of food production and economic development in Tanzania. The Kilombero floodplain is a Ramsar protected area, half of which was converted to agricultural land in the past decades. Therefore, LULC monitoring is required to support sustainable land management. Relatively poor classification performances revealed several challenges during the classification process. The combined approach of PCC and RCVA allows us to detect spatial patterns of LULC change at distinct dimensions and intensities. With the assessment of additional classifier output, namely class-specific per-pixel classification probabilities and derived parameters, we account for classification uncertainty across space. We overlay the LULC change results and the spatial assessment of classification reliability to provide a thorough picture of the LULC changes taking place in the Kilombero catchment.
Vulnerabilitätsabschätzung der erdbebengefährdeten Megacity Istanbul mit Methoden der Fernerkundung
(2008)
Urbane Räume zählen zu den dynamischsten Regionen dieser Erde. Besonders Megacities zeigen bereits heute Trends und Dimensionen der Urbanisierung, deren regionale und globale Folgen noch kaum vorhersehbar, und erst ansatzweise erforscht sind. Die enorme räumliche Konzentration von Menschen, Werten und Infrastruktur auf engem Raum ist für diese urbanen Räume die Grundlage einer hohen Verwundbarkeit (Vulnerabilität). Gerade im Kontext von Naturgefahren potenzieren sich die Risiken, die durch den schnellen strukturellen, sozioökonomischen und ökologischen Wandel entstehen. Das übergeordnete Ziel dieser Dissertation ist daher die Analyse von Potentialen der Fernerkundung zur Abschätzung von Risiko und Vulnerabilität am Beispiel der erdbebengefährdeten Megacity Istanbul. Um die Zielstellung systematisch zu verfolgen, wird ein konzeptioneller, thematischer Leitfaden entwickelt. Dieser besteht aus einer Systematisierung der abstrakten Überbegriffe ‚Risiko’, ‚Vulnerabilität’ und ‚Gefährdung’ in einem Indikatorensystem. Konkrete, messbare Indikatoren für das System ‚urbaner Raum’ erlauben eine quantitative Abschätzung von Einzelaspekten, addieren sich aber auch zu einer ganzheitlichen Perspektive des Risikos. Basierend auf dieser holistischen Idee, erlaubt das Indikatorensystem Potentiale, aber auch Limitierungen der Fernerkundungsdaten und Bildverarbeitungsmethoden für die Abschätzung von Risiko und Vulnerabilität zu identifizieren. Anhand des Leitfadens werden zielgerichtet Methoden zur automatisierten Extraktion räumlicher Informationen aus Fernerkundungsdaten entwickelt. Ein objektorientierter, modularer Klassifikationsansatz ermöglicht eine Landbedeckungsklassifikation höchst aufgelöster Daten im urbanen Raum. Dieses modulare Rahmenwerk zielt auf eine einfache und schnelle Übertragbarkeit auf andere höchst auflösende Sensoren bzw. andere urbane Strukturen. Zur Anpassung der Methoden werden neben IKONOS Daten der Megacity Istanbul und der erdbeben- und tsunamigefährdeten Küstenstadt Padang in Indonesien, Quickbird Daten für die zukünftige Megacity Hyderabad in Indien getestet. Die Resultate zeigen die detaillierte und hochgenaue Erfassung kleinräumiger, heterogener urbaner Objekte mit Genauigkeiten von über 80 %. Auch mittel aufgelöste Landsat Daten werden mit einem objektorientierten modularen Rahmenwerk mit hohen Genauigkeiten klassifiziert, um komplementäre temporale und gesamtstädtische Analysen hinzuzufügen. Damit wird eine aktuelle, flächendeckende und multiskalige Informationsbasis generiert, die als Ausgangsprodukt zur Analyse urbaner Vulnerabilität dient. Basierend auf diesen Informationsebenen werden dem konzeptionellen Leitfaden folgend Indikatoren zur Abschätzung von Vulnerabilität und Risiko extrahiert. Der Fokus ist dabei die Entwicklung von Methoden zur automatisierten, interpreterunabhängigen Ableitung vulnerabilitäts- und gefährdungsrelevanter Indikatoren. Die physische Analyse des kleinräumigen urbanen Raums konzentriert sich dabei auf die Typisierung des Gebäudebestandes mit Parametern wie Dichte, Höhe, Alter, Größe, Form sowie Dachtyp. Indirekt wird zudem mittels dieser Parameter die Bevölkerungsdichteverteilung abgeleitet. Weitere Standortfaktoren ergeben sich aus Lageparametern wie Distanzen zu Hauptverkehrsachsen, Freiflächenanalysen oder der Geländeoberfläche. Schließlich führt die Vulnerabilitätsabschätzung den modellhaften, thematischen Leitfaden mit den abgeleiteten Indikatoren zusammen. Dazu erfolgt eine Normierung der unterschiedlichen abgeleiteten Indikatoren auf einen einheitlichen Vulnerabilitätsindex. Dieser zielt auf eine räumliche und zeitliche Vergleichbarkeit und die Möglichkeit, die vielfältigen Informationsebenen zu kombinieren. Damit wird das Zusammenspiel verschiedenster Indikatoren simuliert und erlaubt daraus Identifizierung und Lokalisierung von Brennpunkten im Desasterfall. Über das fernerkundliche Potential hinaus, werden die Resultate in einer interdisziplinären Methode zu einem synergetischen Mehrwert erhoben. Statt einer quantitativen Abschätzung der physischen Gebäudeparameter, ermöglicht eine Methode des Bauingenieurwesens in Kombination mit der fernerkundlichen Gebäudetypisierung eine Abschätzung der wahrscheinlichen Schadensanfälligkeit von Gebäuden im Falle eines Erdbebens. Exemplarisch wird das Potential der Resultate für Entscheidungsträger anhand eines Erdbebensszenarios aufgezeigt. Risiko und Vulnerabilität lassen sich dadurch räumlich sowohl nach betroffenen Häusern und betroffenen Menschen als auch nach räumlichen Standortfaktoren wie beispielsweise Zugänglichkeit quantifizieren. Dies ermöglicht gezielt präventiv zu agieren oder während und nach einem Desaster gezieltes Krisenmanagement zu betreiben. Im Hinblick auf die zentrale Fragestellung dieser Dissertation lässt sich resümieren, dass die Aktualität sowie die geometrische und thematische Qualität der Resultate aus Fernerkundungsdaten, den Anforderungen des komplexen, kleinräumigen und dynamischen urbanen Raums gerecht werden. Die Resultate führen zu der Erkenntnis, dass das Potential der Fernerkundung zur Abschätzung von Vulnerabilität und Risiko vor allem in der direkten Ableitung physischer Indikatoren sowie der indirekten Ableitung demographischer Parameter liegt.