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Statistical modeling of phenology in Bavaria based on past and future meteorological information
(2020)
Plant phenology is well known to be affected by meteorology. Observed changes in the occurrence of phenological phases arecommonly considered some of the most obvious effects of climate change. However, current climate models lack a representationof vegetation suitable for studying future changes in phenology itself. This study presents a statistical-dynamical modelingapproach for Bavaria in southern Germany, using over 13,000 paired samples of phenological and meteorological data foranalyses and climate change scenarios provided by a state-of-the-art regional climate model (RCM). Anomalies of severalmeteorological variables were used as predictors and phenological anomalies of the flowering date of the test plantForsythiasuspensaas predictand. Several cross-validated prediction models using various numbers and differently constructed predictorswere developed, compared, and evaluated via bootstrapping. As our approach needs a small set of meteorological observationsper phenological station, it allows for reliable parameter estimation and an easy transfer to other regions. The most robust andsuccessful model comprises predictors based on mean temperature, precipitation, wind velocity, and snow depth. Its averagecoefficient of determination and root mean square error (RMSE) per station are 60% and ± 8.6 days, respectively. However, theprediction error strongly differs among stations. When transferred to other indicator plants, this method achieves a comparablelevel of predictive accuracy. Its application to two climate change scenarios reveals distinct changes for various plants andregions. The flowering date is simulated to occur between 5 and 25 days earlier at the end of the twenty-first century comparedto the phenology of the reference period (1961–1990).
Coal mining, an important human activity, disturbs soil organic carbon (SOC) accumulation and decomposition, eventually affecting terrestrial carbon cycling and the sustainability of human society. However, changes of SOC content and their relation with influential factors in coal mining areas remained unclear. In the study, predictive models of SOC content were developed based on field sampling and Landsat images for different land-use types (grassland, forest, farmland, and bare land) of the largest coal mining area in China (i.e., Shendong). The established models were employed to estimate SOC content across the Shendong mining area during 1990–2020, followed by an investigation into the impacts of climate change and human disturbance on SOC content by a Geo-detector. Results showed that the models produced satisfactory results (R\(^2\) > 0.69, p < 0.05), demonstrating that SOC content over a large coal mining area can be effectively assessed using remote sensing techniques. Results revealed that average SOC content in the study area rose from 5.67 gC·kg\(^{−1}\) in 1990 to 9.23 gC·kg\(^{−1}\) in 2010 and then declined to 5.31 gC·Kg\(^{−1}\) in 2020. This could be attributed to the interaction between the disturbance of soil caused by coal mining and the improvement of eco-environment by land reclamation. Spatially, the SOC content of farmland was the highest, followed by grassland, and that of bare land was the lowest. SOC accumulation was inhibited by coal mining activities, with the effect of high-intensity mining being lower than that of moderate- and low-intensity mining activities. Land use was found to be the strongest individual influencing factor for SOC content changes, while the interaction between vegetation coverage and precipitation exerted the most significant influence on the variability of SOC content. Furthermore, the influence of mining intensity combined with precipitation was 10 times higher than that of mining intensity alone.
Human health is known to be affected by the physical environment. Various environmental influences have been identified to benefit or challenge people's physical condition. Their heterogeneous distribution in space results in unequal burdens depending on the place of living. In addition, since societal groups tend to also show patterns of segregation, this leads to unequal exposures depending on social status. In this context, environmental justice research examines how certain social groups are more affected by such exposures. Yet, analyses of this per se spatial phenomenon are oftentimes criticized for using “essentially aspatial” data or methods which neglect local spatial patterns by aggregating environmental conditions over large areas. Recent technological and methodological developments in satellite remote sensing have proven to provide highly detailed information on environmental conditions. This narrative review therefore discusses known influences of the urban environment on human health and presents spatial data and applications for analyzing these influences. Furthermore, it is discussed how geographic data are used in general and in the interdisciplinary research field of environmental justice in particular. These considerations include the modifiable areal unit problem and ecological fallacy. In this review we argue that modern earth observation data can represent an important data source for research on environmental justice and health. Especially due to their high level of spatial detail and the provided large-area coverage, they allow for spatially continuous description of environmental characteristics. As a future perspective, ongoing earth observation missions, as well as processing architectures, ensure data availability and applicability of ’big earth data’ for future environmental justice analyses.
No abstract available.
The use of inverse methods allow efficient model calibration. This study employs PEST to calibrate a large catchment scale transient flow model. Results are demonstrated by comparing manually calibrated approaches with the automated approach. An advanced Tikhonov regularization algorithm was employed for carrying out the automated pilot point (PP) method. The results indicate that automated PP is more flexible and robust as compared to other approaches. Different statistical indicators show that this method yields reliable calibration as values of coefficient of determination (R-2) range from 0.98 to 0.99, Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (ME) range from 0.964 to 0.976, and root mean square errors (RMSE) range from 1.68 m to 1.23 m, for manual and automated approaches, respectively. Validation results of automated PP show ME as 0.969 and RMSE as 1.31 m. The results of output sensitivity suggest that hydraulic conductivity is a more influential parameter. Considering the limitations of the current study, it is recommended to perform global sensitivity and linear uncertainty analysis for the better estimation of the modelling results.
Water crises are becoming severe in recent times, further fueled by population increase and climate change. They result in complex and unsustainable water management. Spatial estimation of consumptive water use is vital for performance assessment of the irrigation system using Remote Sensing (RS). For this study, its estimation is done using the Soil Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) approach. Performance indicators including equity, adequacy, and reliability were worked out at various spatiotemporal scales. Moreover, optimization and sustainable use of water resources are not possible without knowing the factors mainly influencing consumptive water use of major crops. For that purpose, random forest regression modelling was employed using various sets of factors for site-specific, proximity, and cropping system. The results show that the system is underperforming both for Kharif (i.e., summer) and Rabi (i.e., winter) seasons. Performance indicators highlight poor water distribution in the system, a shortage of water supply, and unreliability. The results are relatively good for Rabi as compared to Kharif, with an overall poor situation for both seasons. Factors importance varies for different crops. Overall, distance from canal, road density, canal density, and farm approachability are the most important factors for explaining consumptive water use. Auditing of consumptive water use shows the potential for resource optimization through on-farm water management by the targeted approach. The results are based on the present situation without considering future changes in canal water supply and consumptive water use under climate change.
The monitoring of land cover and land use change is critical for assessing the provision of ecosystem services. One of the sources for long-term land cover change quantification is through the classification of historical and/or current maps. Little research has been done on historical maps using Object-Based Image Analysis (OBIA). This study applied an object-based classification using eCognition tool for analyzing the land cover based on historical maps in the Main river catchment, Upper Franconia, Germany. This allowed land use change analysis between the 1850s and 2015, a time span which covers the phase of industrialization of landscapes in central Europe. The results show a strong increase in urban area by 2600%, a severe loss of cropland (−24%), a moderate reduction in meadows (−4%), and a small gain in forests (+4%). The method proved useful for the application on historical maps due to the ability of the software to create semantic objects. The confusion matrix shows an overall accuracy of 82% for the automatic classification compared to manual reclassification considering all 17 sample tiles. The minimum overall accuracy was 65% for historical maps of poor quality and the maximum was 91% for very high-quality ones. Although accuracy is between high and moderate, coarse land cover patterns in the past and trends in land cover change can be analyzed. We conclude that such long-term analysis of land cover is a prerequisite for quantifying long-term changes in ecosystem services.
The analysis of the Earth system and interactions among its spheres is increasingly important to improve the understanding of global environmental change. In this regard, Earth observation (EO) is a valuable tool for monitoring of long term changes over the land surface and its features. Although investigations commonly study environmental change by means of a single EO-based land surface variable, a joint exploitation of multivariate land surface variables covering several spheres is still rarely performed. In this regard, we present a novel methodological framework for both, the automated processing of multisource time series to generate a unified multivariate feature space, as well as the application of statistical time series analysis techniques to quantify land surface change and driving variables. In particular, we unify multivariate time series over the last two decades including vegetation greenness, surface water area, snow cover area, and climatic, as well as hydrological variables. Furthermore, the statistical time series analyses include quantification of trends, changes in seasonality, and evaluation of drivers using the recently proposed causal discovery algorithm Peter and Clark Momentary Conditional Independence (PCMCI). We demonstrate the functionality of our methodological framework using Indo-Gangetic river basins in South Asia as a case study. The time series analyses reveal increasing trends in vegetation greenness being largely dependent on water availability, decreasing trends in snow cover area being mostly negatively coupled to temperature, and trends of surface water area to be spatially heterogeneous and linked to various driving variables. Overall, the obtained results highlight the value and suitability of this methodological framework with respect to global climate change research, enabling multivariate time series preparation, derivation of detailed information on significant trends and seasonality, as well as detection of causal links with minimal user intervention. This study is the first to use multivariate time series including several EO-based variables to analyze land surface dynamics over the last two decades using the causal discovery algorithm PCMCI.
Peatlands located on slopes (herein called slope bogs) are typical landscape units in the Hunsrueck, a low mountain range in Southwestern Germany. The pathways of the water feeding the slope bogs have not yet been documented and analyzed. The identification of the different mechanisms allowing these peatlands to originate and survive requires a better understanding of the subsurface lithology and hydrogeology. Hence, we applied a multi-method approach to two case study sites in order to characterize the subsurface lithology and to image the variable spatio-temporal hydrological conditions. The combination of Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) and an ERT-Monitoring and Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR), in conjunction with direct methods and data (borehole drilling and meteorological data), allowed us to gain deeper insights into the subsurface characteristics and dynamics of the peatlands and their catchment area. The precipitation influences the hydrology of the peatlands as well as the interflow in the subsurface. Especially, the geoelectrical monitoring data, in combination with the precipitation and temperature data, indicate that there are several forces driving the hydrology and hydrogeology of the peatlands. While the water content of the uppermost layers changes with the weather conditions, the bottom layer seems to be more stable and changes to a lesser extent. At the selected case study sites, small differences in subsurface properties can have a huge impact on the subsurface hydrogeology and the water paths. Based on the collected data, conceptual models have been deduced for the two case study sites.
Information about land use/land cover (LULC) and their changes is useful for different stakeholders to assess future pathways of sustainable land use for food production as well as for nature conservation. In this study, we assess LULC changes in the Kilombero catchment in Tanzania, an important area of recent development in East Africa. LULC change is assessed in two ways: first, post-classification comparison (PCC) which allows us to directly assess changes from one LULC class to another, and second, spectral change detection. We perform LULC classification by applying random forests (RF) on sets of multitemporal metrics that account for seasonal within-class dynamics. For the spectral change detection, we make use of the robust change vector analysis (RCVA) and determine those changes that do not necessarily lead to another class. The combination of the two approaches enables us to distinguish areas that show (a) only PCC changes, (b) only spectral changes that do not affect the classification of a pixel, (c) both types of change, or (d) no changes at all. Our results reveal that only one-quarter of the catchment has not experienced any change. One-third shows both, spectral changes and LULC conversion. Changes detected with both methods predominantly occur in two major regions, one in the West of the catchment, one in the Kilombero floodplain. Both regions are important areas of food production and economic development in Tanzania. The Kilombero floodplain is a Ramsar protected area, half of which was converted to agricultural land in the past decades. Therefore, LULC monitoring is required to support sustainable land management. Relatively poor classification performances revealed several challenges during the classification process. The combined approach of PCC and RCVA allows us to detect spatial patterns of LULC change at distinct dimensions and intensities. With the assessment of additional classifier output, namely class-specific per-pixel classification probabilities and derived parameters, we account for classification uncertainty across space. We overlay the LULC change results and the spatial assessment of classification reliability to provide a thorough picture of the LULC changes taking place in the Kilombero catchment.
Estimating flood risks and managing disasters combines knowledge in climatology, meteorology, hydrology, hydraulic engineering, statistics, planning and geography - thus a complex multi-faceted problem. This study focuses on the capabilities of multi-source remote sensing data to support decision-making before, during and after a flood event. With our focus on urbanized areas, sample methods and applications show multi-scale products from the hazard and vulnerability perspective of the risk framework. From the hazard side, we present capabilities with which to assess flood-prone areas before an expected disaster. Then we map the spatial impact during or after a flood and finally, we analyze damage grades after a flood disaster. From the vulnerability side, we monitor urbanization over time on an urban footprint level, classify urban structures on an individual building level, assess building stability and quantify probably affected people. The results show a large database for sustainable development and for developing mitigation strategies, ad-hoc coordination of relief measures and organizing rehabilitation.
Protection and recovery of natural resource and biodiversity requires accurate monitoring at multiple scales. Airborne Laser Scanning (ALS) provides high-resolution imagery that is valuable for monitoring structural changes to vegetation, providing a reliable reference for ecological analyses and comparison purposes, especially if used in conjunction with other remote-sensing and field products. However, the potential of ALS data has not been fully exploited, due to limits in data availability and validation. To bridge this gap, the global network for airborne laser scanner data (GlobALS) has been established as a worldwide network of ALS data providers that aims at linking those interested in research and applications related to natural resources and biodiversity monitoring. The network does not collect data itself but collects metadata and facilitates networking and collaborative research amongst the end-users and data providers. This letter describes this facility, with the aim of broadening participation in GlobALS.
Geoarchaeological information presented here pertains to a subsidiary Nile channel that once flowed west of the main Sebennitic distributary and discharged its water and sediments at Egypt’s then north-central deltaic coast. Periodical paleoclimatic episodes during the later Middle and Upper Holocene included decreased rainfall and increased aridity that reduced the Nile’s flow levels and thus likely disrupted nautical transport and anthropogenic activity along this channel. Such changes in this deltaic sector, positioned adjacent to the Levantine Basin in the Eastern Mediterranean, can be attributed to climatic shifts triggered as far as the North Atlantic to the west, and African highland source areas of the Egyptian Nile to the south. Of special interest in a study core recovered along the channel are several sediment sequences without anthropogenic material that are interbedded between strata comprising numerous potsherds. The former are interpreted here as markers of increased regional aridity and reduced Nile flow which could have periodically disrupted the regional distribution of goods and nautical activities. Such times occurred ~5000 years B.P., ~4200–4000 years B.P., ~3200–2800 years B.P., ~2300–2200 years B.P., and more recently. Periods comparable to these are also identified by altered proportions of pollen, isotopic and compositional components in different radiocarbon-dated Holocene cores recovered elsewhere in the Nile delta, the Levantine region to the east and north of Egypt, and in the Faiyum depression south of the delta.
The mineralogical and chemical characteristics of fulgurites ( = natural glasses forrned by lightning strikes to the ground) from the southern Centrat Sahara (Niger) are presented. The fulgurites are indicators of thunderstorms. The northernmost important fulgurite formation in the study area reached up to about l8°N, with decreasing fulgurite concentration from south to north. Their distribution pattern and the relative dating of their formation in relation to Iandscape history from the Late Pleistocene onwards (e.g., palaeolakes, palaeosols), and to Neolithic settlement reveals their value as palaeoenvironmental indicators. They indicate: (1) local palaeoenvironmental conditions depending on the topographical situation in a complex dune relief; (2) climatic change during the mid-Holocene from northerly rains to southerly rains; and (3) the northernmost Iimit of important thunderstorrns and rainfall activity since this time in the southern Centrat Sahara.
Am Beispiel von vier Koris l) (Téloua, Barghot, Tazolé, Oufaguédout) des südlichen Air-Vorlandes werden Beobachtungen zum aktuellen morphodynamischen Geschehen dieser Region vorgestellt. Durch die regionalen Unterschiede der durchschnittlichen jährlichen Niederschlagshöhen und durch unterschiedliche Charakteristika ihrer Einzugsgebiete können diese vier Koris als typische Vertreter verschiedener fluviatil/äolischer Formungsgruppen angesehen werden. Der Übergang von vorherrschend fluviatiler zu vorherrschend äolischer Formung liegt dabei im Bereich des Kori Oufaguédout, im östlichen Teil des Untersuchungsraumes. Hier konnte durch mehrere Schürfe auch der zeitliche Übergang zwischen beiden Formungskreisen in der jüngeren Reliefgeschichte nachgewiesen werden.
Silicate and iron crust karst pits and sinkholes in eastern Niger are filled with reworked lateritic sediments or with unconsolidated palaeosoils and aeolian deposits. The fillings facies depend on the environmental conditions during deposition. Geomorphological and sedimentological studies on the karst fillings and the interpretation of various karst/filling associations allow an approach to the chronology of landscape development in eastern Niger plateaus.
Die Karstdepressionen auf den Dachflächen der Schichtstufen in Sahara und Sahel sind im allgemeinen von allochthonen quartären Lockermaterialien verfüllt. Die tieferen Verfüllungsschichten zeigen eine von Norden nach Süden zunehmende Überprägung durch Verwitterungs- und Bodenbildungsprozesse. Die obersten ca. 10 cm der Verfüllungen sind dagegen im ganzen Untersuchungsgebiet relativ uniform ausgebildet. Sie repräsentieren die äolischen Ablagerungen seit der mittelholozänen Aridisierung. Drei Verfiillungsprofile (Seggedim, Termit-Dougoule und Koutous) werden vorgestellt und hinsichtlich ihrer paläoklimatischen Aussagekraft überprüft.
Dans le Niger oriental, des phénomenes karstiques sont fréquents dans les roches siliceuses: gres, silcretes, croûtes ferrugineuses, roches cristallines. A partir des études géomorphologiques et micromorphologiques, on peut conclure a une kartsification, au sense de production de formes par dissolution. Les résultats permettent de dater du Tertiaire inférieur la principale période de karstification. La répartition régionale des formes induites par cette karstification indique une dépendance probable des conditions paléoclimatiques. Actuellement le karst influe encore sur le développement des autres formes de relief.