Doctoral Thesis
Refine
Has Fulltext
- yes (10)
Is part of the Bibliography
- yes (10)
Year of publication
Document Type
- Doctoral Thesis (10) (remove)
Keywords
- China (10) (remove)
Institute
Sonstige beteiligte Institutionen
Sales forecasts are an essential determinant of operational planning in entrepreneurial organizations. However, in China, as in other emerging markets, monthly sales forecasts are particularly challenging for multinational automotive enterprises and suppliers. A chief reason for this is that conventional approaches to sales forecasting often fail to capture the underlying market dynamics. To that end, this dissertation investigates the application of Artificial Neural Networks with an implemented backpropagation algorithm as a more “unconventional” sales forecasting method. A key element of statistical modelling is the selection of superior leading indicators. These indicators were collected as part of the researcher’s expert interviews with multinational enterprises and state associations in China. The economic plausibility of all specified indicators is critically explored in qualitative-quantitative pre-selection procedures. The overall objective of the present study was to improve the accuracy of monthly sales forecasts in the Chinese automotive market. This objective was achieved by showing that the forecasting error could be lowered to a new benchmark of less than 10% in an out-of-sample forecasting application.
With the late twentieth-century reform of the labour market in China, jobs ceased to be guaranteed by the government, and higher education became more and more a requirement for even low-level positions. A surplus of academics and a lack of skilled workers are consequences of these developments - yet vocational education, a clear solution to this problem, has had a persistently negative reputation as a second-class education, suitable only for weak students whose results are too low for an academic middle school.
Against this background, Entering Society analyses the social environments, personalities, values and perceptions of vocational education students over three years in Shanghai. The results show how adolescents stigmatized by society view themselves, their education, their identities and their futures.
As a cradle of ancient Chinese civilization, the Yellow River Basin has a very long human-environment interrelationship, where early anthropogenic activities re- sulted in large scale landscape modifications. Today, the impact of this relationship
has intensified further as the basin plays a vital role for China’s continued economic
development. It is one of the most densely-populated, fastest growing, and most dynamic
regions of China with abundant natural and environmental resources providing a livelihood for almost 190 million people. Triggered by fundamental economic reforms, the
basin has witnessed a spectacular economic boom during the last decades and can be
considered as an exemplary blueprint region for contemporary dynamic Global Change
processes occurring throughout the country, which is currently transitioning from an
agrarian-dominated economy into a modern urbanized society. However, this resourcesdemanding growth has led to profound land use changes with adverse effects on the Yellow
River social-ecological systems, where complex challenges arise threatening a long-term
sustainable development.
Consistent and continuous remote sensing-based monitoring of recent and past land
cover and land use change is a fundamental requirement to mitigate the adverse impacts
of Global Change processes. Nowadays, technical advancement and the multitude of
available satellite sensors, in combination with the opening of data archives, allow the
creation of new research perspectives in regional land cover applications over heterogeneous landscapes at large spatial scales. Despite the urgent need to better understand the
prevailing dynamics and underlying factors influencing the current processes, detailed
regional specific land cover data and change information are surprisingly absent for this
region.
In view of the noted research gaps and contemporary developments, three major objectives are defined in this thesis. First (i), the current and most pressing social-ecological
challenges are elaborated and policy and management instruments towards more sustainability are discussed. Second (ii), this thesis provides new and improved insights on
the current land cover state and dynamics of the entire Yellow River Basin. Finally (iii),
the most dominant processes related to mining, agriculture, forest, and urban dynamics
are determined on finer spatial and temporal scales.
The complex and manifold problems and challenges that result from long-term abuse
of the water and land resources in the basin have been underpinned by policy choices,
cultural attitude, and institutions that have evolved over centuries in China. The tremendous economic growth that has been mainly achieved by extracting water and exploiting
land resources in a rigorous, but unsustainable manner, might not only offset the economic benefits, but could also foster social unrest. Since the early emergence of the first Chinese dynasties, flooding was considered historically as a primary issue in river management and major achievements have been made to tame the wild nature of the Yellow
River. Whereas flooding is therefore largely now under control, new environmental and
social problems have evolved, including soil and water pollution, ecological degradation,
biodiversity decline, and food security, all being further aggravated by anthropogenic
climate change. To resolve the contemporary and complex challenges, many individual
environmental laws and regulations have been enacted by various Chinese ministries.
However, these policies often pursue different, often contradictory goals, are too general
to tackle specific problems and are usually implemented by a strong top-down approach.
Recently, more flexible economic and market-based incentives (pricing, tradable permits,
investments) have been successfully adopted, which are specifically tailored to the respective needs, shifting now away from the pure command and regulating instruments.
One way towards a more holistic and integrated river basin management could be the
establishment of a common platform (e.g. a Geographical Information System) for data
handling and sharing, possibly operated by the Yellow River Basin Conservancy Commission (YRCC), where available spatial data, statistical information and in-situ measures
are coalesced, on which sustainable decision-making could be based. So far, the collected
data is hardly accessible, fragmented, inconsistent, or outdated.
The first step to address the absence and lack of consistent and spatially up-to-date
information for the entire basin capturing the heterogeneous landscape conditions was
taken up in this thesis. Land cover characteristics and dynamics were derived from
the last decade for the years 2003 and 2013, based on optical medium-resolution hightemporal MODIS Normalized Differenced Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series at 250 m.
To minimize the inherent influence of atmospheric and geometric interferences found in
raw high temporal data, the applied adaptive Savitzky-Golay filter successfully smoothed
the time series and substantially reduced noise. Based on the smoothed time series
data, a large variety of intra-annual phenology metrics as well as spectral and multispectral annual statistics were derived, which served as input variables for random
forest (RF) classifiers. High quality reference data sets were derived from very high
resolution imagery for each year independently of which 70 % trained the RF models. The
accuracy assessments for all regionally specific defined thematic classes were based on the
remaining 30 % reference data split and yielded overall accuracies of 87 % and 84 % for
2003 and 2013, respectively. The first regional adapted Yellow River Land Cover Products
(YRB LC) depict the detail spatial extent and distribution of the current land cover status
and dynamics. The novel products overall differentiate overall 18 land cover and use
classes, including classes of natural vegetation (terrestrial and aquatic), cultivated classes,
mosaic classes, non-vegetated, and artificial classes, which are not presented in previous
land cover studies so far.
Building on this, an extended multi-faceted land cover analysis on the most prominent
land cover change types at finer spatial and temporal scales provides a better and more
detailed picture of the Yellow River Basin dynamics. Precise spatio-temporal products
about mining, agriculture, forest, and urban areas were examined from long-trem Landsat
satellite time series monitored at annual scales to capture the rapid rate of change in four
selected focus regions. All archived Landsat images between 2000 and 2015 were used to
derive spatially continuous spectral-temporal, multi-spectral, and textural metrics. For
each thematic region and year RF models were built, trained and tested based on a stablepixels reference data set. The automated adaptive signature (AASG) algorithm identifies those pixels that did not change between the investigated time periods to generate a
mono-temporal reference stable-pixels data set to keep manual sampling requirements
to a minimum level. Derived results gained high accuracies ranging from 88 % to 98 %.
Throughout the basin, afforestation on the Central Loess Plateau and urban sprawl are
identified as most prominent drivers of land cover change, whereas agricultural land
remained stable, only showing local small-scale dynamics. Mining operations started in
2004 on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, which resulted in a substantial loss of pristine alpine
meadows and wetlands.
In this thesis, a novel and unique regional specific view of current and past land cover
characteristics in a complex and heterogeneous landscape was presented by using a
multi-source remote sensing approach. The delineated products hold great potential for
various model and management applications. They could serve as valuable components
for effective and sustainable land and water management to adapt and mitigate the
predicted consequences of Global Change processes.
"China im Wandel" ist das Schlagwort, wenn es um das "Reich der Mitte" geht. Primär war damit das rapide wirtschaftliche Wachstum über die letzten Jahrzehnte gemeint, aber auch zunehmend die Veränderungen in politischen und sozialen Bereichen. Der ökonomische Transformationsprozess hat auch einen anhaltenden institutionellen Wandel in Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft hervorgerufen. Für diese wirtschaftliche Transformation werden in China vor allem mehr qualifizierte Fachkräfte benötigt, nach denen die ausländischen wie inländischen Unternehmen auf dem chinesischen Arbeitsmarkt oft vergeblich suchen. Rekrutierung und Mitarbeiterbindung sowie die steigenden Lohnkosten stellen seit Jahren die größten Herausforderungen auf dem chinesischen Arbeitsmarkt dar. Das Mismatch-Problem ist augenscheinlich. Um die Gründe für diese Verzerrungen zu eruieren, setzt die vorliegende Studie dort an, wo Bildungsmarkt und Arbeitsmarkt aufeinandertreffen, und zwar dem Human Resource Management (HRM) von Unternehmen in China. Ziel dieser Studie ist es, einen Beitrag zur Diskussion über das Voranschreiten meritokratischer Verteilungsprozesse im Übergang von einer Plan- zur Marktwirtschaft in China zu leisten. Die Neue Institutionenökonomik (NIÖ) liefert mit der Signal- und Screeningtheorie (SST) Erklärungsansätze für solche personalökonomischen Probleme zwischen AG und AN. Mit Hilfe dieses auf China angewandten Ansatzes konnten die relevanten "Signale" beider Parteien im Rekrutierungsprozess sowie die Problemfelder Chinas Hotellerie identifiziert und analysiert werden. Somit richtet sich diese Studie nicht nur an Sinologen, sondern ebenso an Wirtschaftswissenschaftler und Praktiker mit Chinabezug.
Purpose – The purpose of this dissertation is to reveal the status quo of development of the grocery retailers’ internationalization process in China as well as to model future trends, opportunities and challenges within a very competitive market. Using several, geographically distant cities as case studies, this paper focuses on the development and outlook of different store formats, along with the development of competition in this respect by explicitly treating China not as a single market. The study thereby analyses historical and geographical diffusion in regard to store formats. The impacts of the main factors of change are discussed.
Design/methodology/approach – The dissertation reviews extensively the literature of grocery retail internationalization with special focus on China. In addition, it draws on primary research in the form of a wide range of expert interviews. As China´s ‘supermarket revolution’ is underway, an understanding of the local and foreign competition and the development of different store formats within different regions of China as well as their prospects, will be crucial to companies expanding into this area.
Findings – The study explains how grocery retailers have already entered the Chinese market with different store formats and how competition has and will further develop. In addition, the study reveals challenges and obstacles in regard to future market strategies, especially in regard to store formats and geographical regions.
Research limitations/implications – The study reveals the current landscape of the Chinese grocery retailing market and emphasizes important strategic pillars, modelling future implications and challenges for food retailers operating in China. Because China is a vast country this dissertation forms only a small part of the geographical evolution process in regard to store formats and competition.
Practical implications – Explores current understanding of the internationalization process in China by considering different format choices. Supplementary, the dissertation proposes an outlook of competition enlargement, prospects of format development and therewith strategic implications within different regions as well as a future research agenda.
Originality / value – Contributes to the understanding of the Chinese grocery retailing market. Furthermore, it is among the first to critically explore possible future developments in regard to store formats and competition within a geographical context in China
China’s monetary policy aims to reach two final targets: a paramount economical target (i.e. price stability) and a less important political target (i.e. economic growth). The main actor of monetary policy is the central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBC). But the PBC is a non-independent central bank. The State Council approves the goals of monetary policy. Very limited instrument independence means that interest rates cannot be set at the PBC’s discretion, and in-sufficient personal independence fails to insulate central bank officials from political influence. Monetary policy in China applies to two sets of monetary policy instruments: (i) instruments of the PBC; and (ii) non-central bank policy instruments. The instruments of the PBC include price-based indirect and quantity-based direct instruments. Non-central bank policy instruments include price and wage controls. The simultaneous usage of all these instruments leads to various distortions that ultimately prevent the interest rate channel of monetary transmission from functioning. Moreover, the strong influences of quantity-based direct instruments and non-central bank policy instruments bring into question the approach of indirect monetary policy in general. The PBC officially follows the monetary targeting approach with monetary aggregates as intermediate targets. Domestic loan growth and the exchange rate are defined as additional intermediate targets. In an in-depth analysis of the intermediate targets two main issues are primarily explored: (i) Are the intermediate targets of the Chinese monetary policy controllable? (ii) Is a sufficient relationship between these targets and the inflation rate observable? It is then shown that monetary aggregates are very difficult to control, but they have a satisfactory relationship with the inflation rate. Similarly, domestic loan growth is difficult to control – a fact largely attributed to the interest rate elasticity of loans – while there is a particularly close relationship between credit growth and the inflation rate. The exchange rate as an intermediate target can be controlled through foreign exchange market interventions; at the same time the exchange rate appears to have a significant relationship to the domestic inflation rate. Discussing the special issue of sterilizing foreign exchange inflows, the study concludes that between 2002 and 2008 not only no costs were incurred by sterilization operations, but that the central bank was actually able to realize a profit through foreign exchange market interventions. Based on this, it is concluded that the exchange rate target has not adversely affected the domestic orientation of monetary policy on the whole. The final part of the study examines whether there are any alternative monetary policy approaches that may be able to describe the policy approach in China; special focus is placed on nominal GDP targeting, the Taylor rule, and inflation targeting. A literature review reveals that the concept of nominal GDP targeting may be able to detect inflationary tendencies in the economy and, in combination with other indicators, it could be a suitable concept to assess the overall economic situation. The author calculates a Taylor rule for China from 1994 to 2008 and concludes that there is no close relationship between the PBC lending and the Taylor rate. The author then designs an augmented Taylor rule expanded to include a credit component (credit-augmented Taylor rule). The study shows that the augmented Taylor rule does not perform much better than the original one, but that it maps high inflationary periods relatively well. This is attributed to direct interventions into the credit markets, which have played a major role in combating inflationary cycles over the past decades. The analysis ends with an introduction of the concept of inflation targeting and an examination of whether this could describe monetary policy in China. It is clear that the PBC does not currently follow the inflation targeting approach, although the Chinese authorities could actually be able to influence inflation expectations effectively, not least through direct instruments such as price controls. The author notes that the PBC indeed had a good track record of fighting inflation between 1994 and 2008, and that this may now indicate a good time to think about introducing inflation targeting in China. The central conclusion of the study is that the proven gradual approach to economic and monetary reforms in China is reaching its limit. To break the vicious cycle that relies on the continuous use of quantity-based instruments to compensate for the ineffective price-based instruments – which in turn arises from the simultaneous use of both types of instruments – a complete shift away from quantity-based instruments is needed. Only then the approach of indirect monetary policy, which was officially introduced in 1998, could come into full play.
This thesis examines the application of intrinsic value models considering segmentation between foreign and domestic investors’ stock segments in China. Within the framework of international portfolio investment theory, segment-specific price differences are theorized to be not caused by irrational behavior but consistent with economic theory. Theoretical comparison of equilibrium and intrinsic value models suggests the latter to be more suitable regarding the Chinese market environment. Correspondingly, in this thesis the relevance of intrinsic value models for Chinese stock prices is examined empirically. It is concluded that price differences can be ascribed to unequal investment opportunities and segment specific characteristics. Nevertheless, results from the domestic and Hong Kong risk-free rate proxy lead to the conclusion that intrinsic value models cannot be considered better suited than linear factor models.
In den Themenbereichen Klimawandel, Klimaschutz und Erneuerbare Energien wurden in den letzten Jahren zunehmend neue Bewertungsmethoden in der geowissenschaftlichen und umweltwissenschaftlichen Forschung eingesetzt. Mit Blick auf die Biogasnutzung kann festgestellt werden, dass diese aus Umwelt- und Klimaschutzgründen sehr wichtig ist, da die Vergärung von Biomasse mit der nachfolgenden indirekten Erzeugung von Strom und Wärme über Blockheizkraftwerke, bzw. der direkten Nutzung des Biogases als Feuerungsgas bzw. als Treibstoff , einen besonderen Beitrag zum Klimaschutz leistet. In Deutschland ist die Biogasnutzung heute einer der wichtigsten Erneuerbaren Energieträger geworden. In China hat die Biogasnutzung zudem ein riesiges Entwicklungspotenzial. Der Autor versucht, im interdisziplinären Themenkreis „Umwelt- und Klimaschutz“ ein Bewertungsmodell für die Biogasnutzung zu entwickeln, um die tatsächlichen und potentiellen umwelt- und klimaschutzrelevanten Auswirkungen der Biogasnutzung zu bewerten. Um das Bewertungsmodell für die Biogasnutzung nach Umwelt- und Klimaschutzaspekten möglichst umfassend zu entwickeln, ist die Verzahnung der interdisziplinären umweltwissenschaftlichen, geowissenschaftlichen, rechtlichen, sowie lokal-, national- und internationalen politischen sowie technischen Faktoren mit ihren umweltbezogenen und klimabezogenen Auswirkungen von höchster Bedeutung. Das in der vorliegenden Arbeit entwickelte Bewertungsmodell erhebt den Anspruch, für den praktischen Einsatz vor Ort tauglich zu sein. Hierzu wurden umwelt- und klimaschutzrechtliche, sowie nationale und internationale politische Anforderungen zur Kategorisierung und Bewertung herangezogen und damit die Durchführbarkeit gewährleistet. Der Lösungsweg zur Bewertung nach Umwelt- und Klimaschutzaspekten führt zum Einen über die Umwelt- und Klimaschutzbilanzierung und zum Anderen über eine Umweltrisikobewertung sowie eine umweltbezogene Standortbewertung. Anhand der praktischen Arbeit und der Analyse von insgesamt 23 Biogasprojekten aus Deutschland und China, konnten bestimmte Charakteristika der Biogasnutzung ermittelt werden. Für die Ermittlung der Bewertungskriterien des Bewertungsmodells wurden insgesamt 3 Themenbereiche (Teil I: Substratversorgung; Teil II: Biogasanlagenbau; Teil III: Biogasverwertung) der Biogasnutzung unterschieden. Jene wurden hinsichtlich der technischen, rechtlichen und politischen Kriterien nach negativen Umwelt- und Klimaschutzauswirkungen über die verschiedenen Belastungspfade der Umweltmedien (Boden, Wasser und Luft) untersucht. Ziel dieser Studie war es auch, durch die Anwendung des Bewertungsmodells auf je drei deutsche und chinesische Fallbeispiele, die ausgereiften deutschen Erfahrungen, die deutsche Technologie und das Know-How der Biogasnutzung auf deren Übertragbarkeit auf die chinesischen Verhältnisse zu prüfen.
Untersuchungsgegenstand der Arbeit ist eine neorealistische Hypothese, wonach ein Staat in der Regel auf die Vorteile einer potentiellen Kooperation verzichtet, sollte sein Kooperationspartner einen größeren Vorteil – einen relativen Gewinn – aus der Zusammenarbeit erzielen als er selbst. Zeitweilig war dies ein dominierendes Thema in der politikwissenschaftlichen Theoriediskussion zwischen Vertretern des Neorealismus und Neoliberalismus, doch hat die Debatte um die Relevanz relativer Gewinne kein allgemein akzeptiertes Ergebnis erbracht. Unter Verwendung eines spieltheoretischen Instrumentariums werden daher die verbreitetsten theoretischen Darstellungen verglichen, um Hypothesen für die anschließende empirische Überprüfung am Beispiel der amerikanisch-chinesischen Beziehungen zu gewinnen.
Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht die empirischen Erfahrungen und die Einflußfaktoren der Kommunikationsprobleme der deutschen Expatriates und Chinesen in der wirtschaftlichen Zusammenarbeit. Die Untersuchung basiert auf einem Datenmaterial, das aus 86 Interviewgesprächen mit Betroffenen besteht. Zentrale Fragestellungen der vorliegenden Arbeit sind: 1. Mit welchen Kommunikationsproblemen werden die befragten deutschen Expatriates und Chinesen in ihrer interkulturellen Kommunikation miteinander konfrontiert? 2. Was sind die Ursachen bzw. die Einflußfaktoren der genannten Probleme? 3. Welche Rolle spielen Sprache und Sprachkenntnisse in der Kommunikationsproblematik zwischen deutschen Expatriates und Chinesen? 4. Welche Unterschiede des Kommunikationsverhaltens werden von den befragten Deutschen und Chinesen beobachtet? 5. Welche Verbesserungsvorschläge können für die Vorbereitung künftiger deutscher Expatriates gegeben werden? In Kapitel zwei werden die Grundbegriffe „Kommunikation“, „Kultur“ und „interkulturelle Kommunikation“ erläutert und einige häufig vorkommende Probleme in der interkulturellen Kommunikation dargestellt. Verschiedene theoretischen und methodologischen Ansätze zur Untersuchung der interkulturellen Kommunikation werden vorgestellt. Das Kapitel drei befaßt sich mit der Methode der Arbeit. Nach der Darstellung einiger Grundüberlegungen über die Vorgehensweise der vorliegenden Untersuchung werden das Datenmaterial und die Erhebungsmethode vorgestellt. Anschließend werden die Untersuchungs- und Auswertungsmethode der Arbeit dargelegt: Zuerst wird die Wahl der qualitativ-interpretativen Auswertungsmethode begründet. Dann werden die beiden konkreten Methoden für die Interpretation und Auswertung des Datenmaterials – die Kategorisierung und die Kontextualisierung der Aussagen – beschrieben. Abschließend wird die synthetische Analysenmethode der Untersuchung – die Integration von Darstellung, Interpretation und Erklären – erläutert. Die Kapitel vier, fünf, sechs und sieben bilden den empirischen Teil der Arbeit. In Kapitel vier werden die deutschen Erfahrungen in der Kommunikation mit Chinesen untersucht. Zu Beginn wird ein Einzelfall präsentiert. Dann wird das gesamte deutsche Datenmaterial analysiert. Die von den deutschen Befragten beobachteten fremdartigen chinesischen Kommunikationsgewohnheiten und häufig erlebten interkulturellen Kommunikationsprobleme werden aufgezeigt und unter Berücksichtigung relevanter sprachlicher und soziokultureller Einflußfaktoren analysiert. Die Meinungen und Erfahrungen der Befragten werden auch mit eigenen ethnographischen Beobachtungen und Untersuchungsergebnissen anderer Arbeiten verglichen. Das chinesische Datenmaterial wird in Kapitel fünf ausgewertet. Neben der Darstellung der erlebten positiven und negativen interkulturellen Kommunikationserfahrungen werden die von den chinesischen Befragten beobachteten Unterschiede zwischen dem deutschen und dem chinesischen Kommunikationsverhalten beleuchtet. Im sechsten Kapitel werden die deutschen und die chinesischen Aussagen gegenübergestellt. Das Gemeinsame und die Unterschiede in den Erfahrungen und Ansichten der beiden Seiten werden aufgezeigt. Dabei sollten die von den beiden Seiten erkannten Kommunikationsverhaltensunterschiede und unterschiedlichen Präferenzen für bestimmte Kommunikationsstrategien verdeutlicht werden. In Kapitel sieben wird dann anhand des Datenmaterials eine exemplarische kontrastive Untersuchung über das Sprechverhalten der befragten Deutschen und Chinesen bei der Partnerbewertung durchgeführt, um zu veranschaulichen, welche tatsächlichen Unterschiede zwischen dem deutschen und dem chinesischen Sprechverhalten es gibt und ob die von den Befragten genannten unterschiedlichen Präferenzen bestimmter Kommunikationsstrategien auch in ihrer eigenen Rede zu beobachten sind. Im letzten Kapitel werden die Untersuchungsergebnisse zusammengefaßt und die Fragestellungen der Arbeit abschließend beantwortet. Konkrete Verbesserungsvorschläge für die Vorbereitung künftiger deutscher Expatriates in China und ein Ausblick auf die künftige Forschung in diesem Gebiet werden gegeben.