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Understanding extinction debts: spatio-temporal scales, mechanisms and a roadmap for future research
(2019)
Extinction debt refers to delayed species extinctions expected as a consequence of ecosystem perturbation. Quantifying such extinctions and investigating long‐term consequences of perturbations has proven challenging, because perturbations are not isolated and occur across various spatial and temporal scales, from local habitat losses to global warming. Additionally, the relative importance of eco‐evolutionary processes varies across scales, because levels of ecological organization, i.e. individuals, (meta)populations and (meta)communities, respond hierarchically to perturbations. To summarize our current knowledge of the scales and mechanisms influencing extinction debts, we reviewed recent empirical, theoretical and methodological studies addressing either the spatio–temporal scales of extinction debts or the eco‐evolutionary mechanisms delaying extinctions. Extinction debts were detected across a range of ecosystems and taxonomic groups, with estimates ranging from 9 to 90% of current species richness. The duration over which debts have been sustained varies from 5 to 570 yr, and projections of the total period required to settle a debt can extend to 1000 yr. Reported causes of delayed extinctions are 1) life‐history traits that prolong individual survival, and 2) population and metapopulation dynamics that maintain populations under deteriorated conditions. Other potential factors that may extend survival time such as microevolutionary dynamics, or delayed extinctions of interaction partners, have rarely been analyzed. Therefore, we propose a roadmap for future research with three key avenues: 1) the microevolutionary dynamics of extinction processes, 2) the disjunctive loss of interacting species and 3) the impact of multiple regimes of perturbation on the payment of debts. For their ability to integrate processes occurring at different levels of ecological organization, we highlight mechanistic simulation models as tools to address these knowledge gaps and to deepen our understanding of extinction dynamics.
Land-use intensification and loss of semi-natural habitats have induced a severe decline of bee diversity in agricultural landscapes. Semi-natural habitats like calcareous grasslands are among the most important bee habitats in central Europe, but they are threatened by decreasing habitat area and quality, and by homogenization of the surrounding landscape affecting both landscape composition and configuration. In this study we tested the importance of habitat area, quality and connectivity as well as landscape composition and configuration on wild bees in calcareous grasslands. We made detailed trait-specific analyses as bees with different traits might differ in their response to the tested factors. Species richness and abundance of wild bees were surveyed on 23 calcareous grassland patches in Southern Germany with independent gradients in local and landscape factors. Total wild bee richness was positively affected by complex landscape configuration, large habitat area and high habitat quality (i.e. steep slopes). Cuckoo bee richness was positively affected by complex landscape configuration and large habitat area whereas habitat specialists were only affected by the local factors habitat area and habitat quality. Small social generalists were positively influenced by habitat area whereas large social generalists (bumblebees) were positively affected by landscape composition (high percentage of semi-natural habitats). Our results emphasize a strong dependence of habitat specialists on local habitat characteristics, whereas cuckoo bees and bumblebees are more likely affected by the surrounding landscape. We conclude that a combination of large high-quality patches and heterogeneous landscapes maintains high bee species richness and communities with diverse trait composition. Such diverse communities might stabilize pollination services provided to crops and wild plants on local and landscape scales.
Testing Pollen of Single and Stacked Insect-Resistant Bt-Maize on In vitro Reared Honey Bee Larvae
(2011)
The ecologically and economic important honey bee (Apis mellifera) is a key non-target arthropod species in environmental risk assessment (ERA) of genetically modified (GM) crops. Honey bee larvae are directly exposed to transgenic products by the consumption of GM pollen. But most ERA studies only consider responses of adult bees, although Bt-proteins primarily affect the larval phases of target organisms. We adopted an in vitro larvae rearing system, to assess lethal and sublethal effects of Bt-pollen consumption in a standardized eco-toxicological bioassay. The effects of pollen from two Bt-maize cultivars, one expressing a single and the other a total of three Bt-proteins, on the survival and prepupae weight of honey bee larvae were analyzed. The control treatments included pollen from three non-transgenic maize varieties and of Heliconia rostrata. Three days old larvae were fed the realistic exposure dose of 2 mg pollen within the semi-artificial diet. The larvae were monitored over 120 h, until the prepupal stage, where larvae terminate feeding and growing. Neither single nor stacked Bt-maize pollen showed an adverse effect on larval survival and the prepupal weight. In contrast, feeding of H. rostrata pollen caused significant toxic effects. The results of this study indicate that pollen of the tested Bt-varieties does not harm the development of in vitro reared A. mellifera larvae. To sustain the ecosystem service of pollination, Bt-impact on A. mellifera should always be a crucial part of regulatory biosafety assessments. We suggest that our approach of feeding GM pollen on in vitro reared honey bee larvae is well suited of becoming a standard bioassay in regulatory risk assessments schemes of GM crops.
Solitary bees are subject to a variety of pressures that cause severe population declines. Currently, habitat loss, temperature shifts, agrochemical exposure, and new parasites are identified as major threats. However, knowledge about detrimental bacteria is scarce, although they may disturb natural microbiomes, disturb nest environments, or harm the larvae directly. To address this gap, we investigated 12 Osmia bicornis nests with deceased larvae and 31 nests with healthy larvae from the same localities in a 16S ribosomal RNA (rRNA) gene metabarcoding study. We sampled larvae, pollen provisions, and nest material and then contrasted bacterial community composition and diversity in healthy and deceased nests. Microbiomes of pollen provisions and larvae showed similarities for healthy larvae, whilst this was not the case for deceased individuals. We identified three bacterial taxa assigned to Paenibacillus sp. (closely related to P. pabuli/amylolyticus/xylanexedens), Sporosarcina sp., and Bacillus sp. as indicative for bacterial communities of deceased larvae, as well as Lactobacillus for corresponding pollen provisions. Furthermore, we performed a provisioning experiment, where we fed larvae with untreated and sterilized pollens, as well as sterilized pollens inoculated with a Bacillus sp. isolate from a deceased larva. Untreated larval microbiomes were consistent with that of the pollen provided. Sterilized pollen alone did not lead to acute mortality, while no microbiome was recoverable from the larvae. In the inoculation treatment, we observed that larval microbiomes were dominated by the seeded bacterium, which resulted in enhanced mortality. These results support that larval microbiomes are strongly determined by the pollen provisions. Further, they underline the need for further investigation of the impact of detrimental bacterial acquired via pollens and potential buffering by a diverse pollen provision microbiome in solitary bees.
Specialization of plant-pollinator interactions increases with temperature at Mt. Kilimanjaro
(2020)
Aim: Species differ in their degree of specialization when interacting with other species, with significant consequences for the function and robustness of ecosystems. In order to better estimate such consequences, we need to improve our understanding of the spatial patterns and drivers of specialization in interaction networks.
Methods: Here, we used the extensive environmental gradient of Mt. Kilimanjaro (Tanzania, East Africa) to study patterns and drivers of specialization, and robustness of plant–pollinator interactions against simulated species extinction with standardized sampling methods. We studied specialization, network robustness and other network indices of 67 quantitative plant–pollinator networks consisting of 268 observational hours and 4,380 plant–pollinator interactions along a 3.4 km elevational gradient. Using path analysis, we tested whether resource availability, pollinator richness, visitation rates, temperature, and/or area explain average specialization in pollinator communities. We further linked pollinator specialization to different pollinator taxa, and species traits, that is, proboscis length, body size, and species elevational ranges.
Results: We found that specialization decreased with increasing elevation at different levels of biological organization. Among all variables, mean annual temperature was the best predictor of average specialization in pollinator communities. Specialization differed between pollinator taxa, but was not related to pollinator traits. Network robustness against simulated species extinctions of both plants and pollinators was lowest in the most specialized interaction networks, that is, in the lowlands.
Conclusions: Our study uncovers patterns in plant–pollinator specialization along elevational gradients. Mean annual temperature was closely linked to pollinator specialization. Energetic constraints, caused by short activity timeframes in cold highlands, may force ectothermic species to broaden their dietary spectrum. Alternatively or in addition, accelerated evolutionary rates might facilitate the establishment of specialization under warm climates. Despite the mechanisms behind the patterns have yet to be fully resolved, our data suggest that temperature shifts in the course of climate change may destabilize pollination networks by affecting network architecture.
Spatiotemporal Fusion Modelling Using STARFM: Examples of Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 NDVI in Bavaria
(2022)
The increasing availability and variety of global satellite products provide a new level of data with different spatial, temporal, and spectral resolutions; however, identifying the most suited resolution for a specific application consumes increasingly more time and computation effort. The region’s cloud coverage additionally influences the choice of the best trade-off between spatial and temporal resolution, and different pixel sizes of remote sensing (RS) data may hinder the accurate monitoring of different land cover (LC) classes such as agriculture, forest, grassland, water, urban, and natural-seminatural. To investigate the importance of RS data for these LC classes, the present study fuses NDVIs of two high spatial resolution data (high pair) (Landsat (30 m, 16 days; L) and Sentinel-2 (10 m, 5–6 days; S), with four low spatial resolution data (low pair) (MOD13Q1 (250 m, 16 days), MCD43A4 (500 m, one day), MOD09GQ (250 m, one-day), and MOD09Q1 (250 m, eight day)) using the spatial and temporal adaptive reflectance fusion model (STARFM), which fills regions’ cloud or shadow gaps without losing spatial information. These eight synthetic NDVI STARFM products (2: high pair multiply 4: low pair) offer a spatial resolution of 10 or 30 m and temporal resolution of 1, 8, or 16 days for the entire state of Bavaria (Germany) in 2019. Due to their higher revisit frequency and more cloud and shadow-free scenes (S = 13, L = 9), Sentinel-2 (overall R\(^2\) = 0.71, and RMSE = 0.11) synthetic NDVI products provide more accurate results than Landsat (overall R\(^2\) = 0.61, and RMSE = 0.13). Likewise, for the agriculture class, synthetic products obtained using Sentinel-2 resulted in higher accuracy than Landsat except for L-MOD13Q1 (R\(^2\) = 0.62, RMSE = 0.11), resulting in similar accuracy preciseness as S-MOD13Q1 (R\(^2\) = 0.68, RMSE = 0.13). Similarly, comparing L-MOD13Q1 (R\(^2\) = 0.60, RMSE = 0.05) and S-MOD13Q1 (R\(^2\) = 0.52, RMSE = 0.09) for the forest class, the former resulted in higher accuracy and precision than the latter. Conclusively, both L-MOD13Q1 and S-MOD13Q1 are suitable for agricultural and forest monitoring; however, the spatial resolution of 30 m and low storage capacity makes L-MOD13Q1 more prominent and faster than that of S-MOD13Q1 with the 10-m spatial resolution.
Recently reported insect declines have raised both political and social concern. Although the declines have been attributed to land use and climate change, supporting evidence suffers from low taxonomic resolution, short time series, a focus on local scales, and the collinearity of the identified drivers. In this study, we conducted a systematic assessment of insect populations in southern Germany, which showed that differences in insect biomass and richness are highly context dependent. We found the largest difference in biomass between semi-natural and urban environments (-42%), whereas differences in total richness (-29%) and the richness of threatened species (-56%) were largest from semi-natural to agricultural environments. These results point to urbanization and agriculture as major drivers of decline. We also found that richness and biomass increase monotonously with increasing temperature, independent of habitat. The contrasting patterns of insect biomass and richness question the use of these indicators as mutual surrogates. Our study provides support for the implementation of more comprehensive measures aimed at habitat restoration in order to halt insect declines.
The factors determining gradients of biodiversity are a fundamental yet unresolved topic in ecology. While diversity gradients have been analysed for numerous single taxa, progress towards general explanatory models has been hampered by limitations in the phylogenetic coverage of past studies. By parallel sampling of 25 major plant and animal taxa along a 3.7 km elevational gradient on Mt. Kilimanjaro, we quantify cross-taxon consensus in diversity gradients and evaluate predictors of diversity from single taxa to a multi-taxa community level. While single taxa show complex distribution patterns and respond to different environmental factors, scaling up diversity to the community level leads to an unambiguous support for temperature as the main predictor of species richness in both plants and animals. Our findings illuminate the influence of taxonomic coverage for models of diversity gradients and point to the importance of temperature for diversification and species coexistence in plant and animal communities.
Predicting bee community responses to land-use changes: Effects of geographic and taxonomic biases
(2016)
Land-use change and intensification threaten bee populations worldwide, imperilling pollination services. Global models are needed to better characterise, project, and mitigate bees' responses to these human impacts. The available data are, however, geographically and taxonomically unrepresentative; most data are from North America and Western Europe, overrepresenting bumblebees and raising concerns that model results may not be generalizable to other regions and taxa. To assess whether the geographic and taxonomic biases of data could undermine effectiveness of models for conservation policy, we have collated from the published literature a global dataset of bee diversity at sites facing land-use change and intensification, and assess whether bee responses to these pressures vary across 11 regions (Western, Northern, Eastern and Southern Europe; North, Central and South America; Australia and New Zealand; South East Asia; Middle and Southern Africa) and between bumblebees and other bees. Our analyses highlight strong regionally-based responses of total abundance, species richness and Simpson's diversity to land use, caused by variation in the sensitivity of species and potentially in the nature of threats. These results suggest that global extrapolation of models based on geographically and taxonomically restricted data may underestimate the true uncertainty, increasing the risk of ecological surprises.
The monitoring of species and functional diversity is of increasing relevance for the development of strategies for the conservation and management of biodiversity. Therefore, reliable estimates of the performance of monitoring techniques across taxa become important. Using a unique dataset, this study investigates the potential of airborne LiDAR-derived variables characterizing vegetation structure as predictors for animal species richness at the southern slopes of Mount Kilimanjaro. To disentangle the structural LiDAR information from co-factors related to elevational vegetation zones, LiDAR-based models were compared to the predictive power of elevation models. 17 taxa and 4 feeding guilds were modeled and the standardized study design allowed for a comparison across the assemblages. Results show that most taxa (14) and feeding guilds (3) can be predicted best by elevation with normalized RMSE values but only for three of those taxa and two of those feeding guilds the difference to other models is significant. Generally, modeling performances between different models vary only slightly for each assemblage. For the remaining, structural information at most showed little additional contribution to the performance. In summary, LiDAR observations can be used for animal species prediction. However, the effort and cost of aerial surveys are not always in proportion with the prediction quality, especially when the species distribution follows zonal patterns, and elevation information yields similar results.