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Diese Dissertation präsentiert Ergebnisse regionaler Niederschlagsabschätzungen für Namibia bei anthropogen verstärktem Treibhauseffekt, die mit der Methode des Statistischen Downscaling erzielt wurden. Über statistische Transferfunktionen werden Beziehungen zwischen großskaliger atmosphärischer Zirkulation und Namibischen Sommerregen aufgestellt. Dazu werden in einer 30-jährigen Kalibrierungsperiode Hauptkomponenten von Geopotentiellen Höhen verschiedener atmosphärischer Niveaus (300, 500, 1000hPa) mit den Niederschlagsmonatssummen (November bis März) von 84 Namibischen Stationen durch multiple Regressionsanalysen verknüpft, die für jede Station oder alternativ für Gitternetzniederschlagsdaten berechnet werden. Nach der Verifikation der statistischen Zusammenhänge in einem unabhängigen Zeitraum werden Regressionsmodelle jener Stationen bzw. Gitterpunkte selektiert, die mit signifikanten Korrelationen von r>0.4 zwischen beobachteten und modellierten Werten ausreichende Qualität garantieren. Diese Modelle werden eingesetzt, um unter Verwendung simulierter ECHAM3-T42 und ECHAM4tr-T42 Geopotentialdaten den lokalen Niederschlag für die jeweiligen Treibhauseffekt-Szenarien abzuschätzen. Als zusätzliche Methode, um die großskalige atmosphärische Zirkulation mit lokalen Stationsdaten zu verknüpfen, werden kanonische Korrelationsanalysen durchgeführt. Unabhängig von der Verfahrensweise resultieren für Klimabedingungen dreifacher bzw. transient ansteigender CO2-Konzentrationen im Vergleich zu einem Referenzzeitraum (1961-90) zunehmende Niederschläge in den nördlichen und östlichen Teilen Namibias von Dezember bis Februar. In den südlichen und südwestlichen Regionen sind von November bis Januar geringe Abnahmen zu verzeichnen. Die Abschätzungen für März zeigen einen deutlichen Rückgang der Niederschläge in ganz Namibia. Diese Ergebnisse weisen auf eine intensivierte, akzentuiertere Regenzeit hin, auch wenn die Gesamtmenge der Niederschläge unter Bedingungen des anthropogen verstärkten Treibhauseffekts mehr oder weniger gleich bleibt. Daher ist es von besonderer Bedeutung, die Abschätzungen der Niederschlagsänderungen auf monatlicher Ebene durchzuführen. Weitere Untersuchungen beinhalten die Trennung thermischer und dynamischer Effekte in den zur Abschätzung herangezogenen ECHAM3 und ECHAM4 Zirkulationsdaten. Durch die globale Erwärmung kommt es zu einer Anhebung der Geopotentiellen Höhen der Treibhauseffekt-Szenarien. Durch die Korrektur des Uplifting-Prozesses werden dynamisch induzierte Auswirkungen auf das Niederschlagsgeschehen erfasst. Áus der Verwendung uplifting-korrigierter Geopotentialdaten als Prädiktoren in der Downscaling-Prozedur resultieren sowohl im positiven als auch negativen Bereich geringere Änderungsraten in den Abschätzungsergebnissen. Ohne Zweifel reagiert das Klimasystem auf den anthropogen verstärkten Treibhauseffekt. In Bezug auf zukünftige Namibische Sommerregen ist es von besonderer Bedeutung die Auswirkungen des Treibhauseffekts regional und temporal zu differenzieren.
Die Arbeit untersucht den Einfluss von Nichtregierungsorganisationen (NGOs)und Wissenschaftlicher Gemeinschaften auf Internationale Regime. Ausgehend vom Kooperationsproblem in einer anarchischen Staatenwelt wird der Leistungsbeitrag der beiden nichtstaatlichen Akteure auf das Zustandekommen von Kooperation analysiert und seine schwankende Rolle im Verlauf des Regimeprozesses untersucht. Das Fallbeispiel bildet dabei das internationale Klimaschutzregime, wobei der Untersuchungszeitraum von den ersten Anfängen der Thematisierung des Klimawandels bis hin zu der in Marrakesch erreichten Ausformulierung des Kyoto-Protokolls reicht.
Der Klimawandel und insbesondere die globale Erwärmung gehören aktuell zu den größten Herausforderungen an Politik und Wissenschaft. Steigende CO2-Emissionen sind hierbei maßgeblich für die Klimaerwärmung verantwortlich. Ein regulierender Faktor beim CO2-Austausch mit der Atmosphäre ist die Vegetation, welche als CO2-Senke aber auch als CO2-Quelle fungieren kann. Diese Funktionen können durch Analysen der Landbedeckungsänderung in Kombination mit Modellierungen der Kohlenstoffbilanz quantifiziert werden, was insbesondere von aktuellen und zukünftigen politischen Instrumenten wie CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) oder REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation) gefordert wird. Vor allem in Regionen mit starker Landbedeckungsänderung und hoher Bevölkerungsdichte sowie bei geringem Wissen über die Produktivität und CO2-Speicherpotentiale der Vegetation, bedarf es einer Erforschung und Quantifizierung der terrestrischen Kohlenstoffspeicher. Eine Region, für die dies in besonderem Maße zutrifft, ist Westafrika. Jüngste Studien haben gezeigt, dass sich einerseits die Folgen des Klimawandels und Umweltveränderungen sehr stark in Westafrika auswirken werden und andererseits Bevölkerungswachstum eine starke Änderung der Landbedeckung für die Nutzung als agrarische Fläche bewirkt hat. Folglich sind in dieser Region die terrestrischen Kohlenstoffspeicher durch Ausdehnung der Landwirtschaft und Waldrodung besonders gefährdet. Große Flächen agieren anstelle ihrer ursprünglichen Funktion als CO2-Senke bereits als CO2-Quelle. [...]
Climate change assessment in Southeast Asia and implications for agricultural production in Vietnam
(2011)
For many years, the study of climatic changes and variations has become the main objective of climatic research, as has been appreciated in the IPCC's reports and several publications regarding climatic evolution on different space-time scales. Since the 80's, many research groups have generated the extensive database from which the analysis of temperature, precipitation and other climatic parameters has been performed on a global scale (Jones et al., 1986; Hansen and Lebedeff, 1987, 1988; Vinnikov et al., 1987, 1990). The most important result of these research projects is the evidence of global warming during the 20th century, especially in the last two decades. However, numerous challenges still exist about the structure and dimension of the climatic change on a considerable scale. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out studies on a local and regional scale that allow for a more precise evaluation of the global warming phenomenon. A statistical analysis approach was developed to identify systematic differences between large-scale climatic variable from the General Circulation Models (GCM), NCEP, CRU re-analysis data set and climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation data). Models are able to satisfactorily reproduce the spatial patterns of the regional temperature and precipitation field. The response of the climate system to various emission scenario simulated by the GCM was used to analyze and predict the local climate change. The main objective of this study is to analysis the time evolution of the annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation during the 21st century and in order to contribute to our knowledge of temperature and precipitation trends over the century on a regional scale, not only in Southeast Asia but also in Vietnam; the study focuses to develop a dynamical – statistical model describing the relationship between the major climate variation and agricultural production in Vietnam. This study will be an important contribution to the present-day assessment of climate change impacts in the low latitudes. Regional scenarios of climate change, including both rainfall and mean temperature were then used to assess the impact of climate change on crop production in the region in order to evaluate the vulnerability of the system to global warming. Climate change has adverse impacts on the socio - economic development of all nations. But the degree of the impact will vary across nations. It is expected that changes in the earth's climate will impact on developing countries like Vietnam, in particular, hardest because their economies are strongly dependent on crude forms of natural resources and their economic structure is less flexible to adjust to such drastic changes. In Chapter 1: Introduction and background I describe in general terms climate, climate change, climate change model with benefits and problems. Chapter 2: methodology discusses the methods including interpolation, validation, clustering, correlation and regression which were applied in the study. Chapter 3 and chapter 4 describe the database and study area. The most important is chapter 5 Results. The last is chapter 6 Conclusion and outlook followed by the reference list and an appendix.
BACKGROUND: Climate change will probably alter the spread and transmission intensity of malaria in Africa. OBJECTIVES: In this study, we assessed potential changes in the malaria transmission via an integrated weather disease model.
METHODS: We simulated mosquito biting rates using the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM). The input data for the LMM were bias-corrected temperature and precipitation data from the regional model (REMO) on a 0.5 degrees latitude longitude grid. A Plasmodium falciparum infection model expands the LMM simulations to incorporate information on the infection rate among children. Malaria projections were carried out with this integrated weather disease model for 2001 to 2050 according to two climate scenarios that include the effect of anthropogenic land-use and land-cover changes on climate.
RESULTS: Model-based estimates for the present climate (1960 to 2000) are consistent with observed data for the spread of malaria in Africa. In the model domain, the regions where malaria is epidemic are located in the Sahel as well as in various highland territories. A decreased spread of malaria over most parts of tropical Africa is projected because of simulated increased surface temperatures and a significant reduction in annual rainfall. However, the likelihood of malaria epidemics is projected to increase in the southern part of the Sahel. In most of East Africa, the intensity of malaria transmission is expected to increase. Projections indicate that highland areas that were formerly unsuitable for malaria will become epidemic, whereas in the lower-altitude regions of the East African highlands, epidemic risk will decrease.
CONCLUSIONS: We project that climate changes driven by greenhouse-gas and land-use changes will significantly affect the spread of malaria in tropical Africa well before 2050. The geographic distribution of areas where malaria is epidemic might have to be significantly altered in the coming decades.
The 2007 flood in the Sahel: causes, characteristics and its presentation in the media and FEWS NET
(2012)
During the rainy season in 2007, reports about exceptional rains and floodings in the Sahel were published in the media, especially in August and September. Institutions and organizations like the World Food Programme (WFP) and FEWS NET put the events on the agenda and released alerts and requested help. The partly controversial picture was that most of the Sahel faced a crisis caused by widespread floodings. Our study shows that the rainy season in 2007 was exceptional with regard to rainfall amount and return periods. In many areas the event had a return period between 1 and 50 yr with high spatial heterogeneity, with the exception of the Upper Volta basin, which yielded return periods of up to 1200 yr. Despite the strong rainfall, the interpretation of satellite images show that the floods were mainly confined to lakes and river beds. However, the study also proves the difficulties in assessing the meteorological processes and the demarcation of flooded areas in satellite images without ground truthing. These facts and the somewhat vague and controversial reports in the media and FEWS NET demonstrate that it is crucial to thoroughly analyze such events at a regional and local scale involving the local population.
Plant communities in the European Alps are assumed to be highly affected by climate change, as the temperature rise in this region is above the global average. It is predicted that higher temperatures will lead to advanced snowmelt dates and that the number of extreme weather events will increase. The aims of this study were to determine the impacts of extreme climatic events on flower phenology and to assess whether those impacts differed between lower and higher altitudes. In 2010, an experiment simulating advanced and delayed snowmelt as well as a drought event was conducted along an altitudinal transect approximately every 250 m (600–2000 m above sea level) in the Berchtesgaden National Park, Germany. The study showed that flower phenology was strongly affected by altitude; however, there were few effects of the manipulative treatments on flowering. The effects of advanced snowmelt were significantly greater at higher than at lower sites, but no significant difference was found between both altitudinal bands for the other treatments. The response of flower phenology to temperature declined through the season and the length of flowering duration was not significantly influenced by treatments. The stronger effect of advanced snowmelt at higher altitudes may be a response to differences in treatment intensity across the gradient. Consequently, shifts in the date of snowmelt due to global warming may affect species more at higher than at lower altitudes, as changes may be more pronounced at higher altitudes. These data indicate a rather low risk of drought events on flowering phenology in the Bavarian Alps.
Climate change has created potential major threats to global biodiversity. The multiple components of climate change are projected to affect all pillars of biodiversity, from genes over species to biome level. Of particular concerns are "tipping points" where the exceedance of ecosystem thresholds will possibly lead to irreversible shifts of ecosystems and their functioning. As biodiversity underlies all goods and services provided by ecosystems that are crucial for human survival and wellbeing, this paper presents potential effects of climate change on biodiversity, its plausible impacts on human society as well as the setting in addressing a global crisis. Species affected by climate change may respond in three ways: change, move or die. Local species extinctions or a rapidly affected ecosystem as a whole respectively might move toward its particular "tipping point", thereby probably depriving its services to human society and ending up in a global crisis. Urgent and appropriate actions within various scenarios of climate change impacts on biodiversity, especially in tropical regions, are needed to be considered. Foremost a multisectoral approach on biodiversity issues with broader policies, stringent strategies and programs at international, national and local levels is essential to meet the challenges of climate change impacts on biodiversity.
The glaciers in Norway exert a strong influence on Norwegian economy and society. Unlike many glaciers elsewhere and despite ongoing climate change and warming, many of them showed renewed advances and positive net mass changes in the 1980's and 1990's, followed by rapid retreats and mass losses since 2000. This difference in behaviour may be attributed to differences and shifts in the glaciological regime - the differences in the magnitude of impacts of climatic and non-climatic geographical factors on the glacier mass.
This study investigates the influence of various atmospheric variables on mass balance changes of a selection of glaciers in Norway by means of Pearson correlation analyses and cross-validated stepwise multiple regression analyses. The analyses are carried out for three time periods (1949-2008, 1949-1988, 1989-2008) separately in order to take into consideration the possible shift in the glaciological regime in the 1980's. The atmospheric variables are constructed from ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR re-analysis datasets and include regional means of seasonal air temperature and precipitation rates and atmospheric circulation indices. The multiple regression models trained in these time periods are then applied to predictors reconstructed from the CMIP3 climate model dataset to generate an estimate for mass changes from the year 1950 to 2100. The temporal overlap of estimates and observations is used for calibration. Finally, observed atmospheric states in seasons that are characterised by a particularly positive or negative mass balance are categorised into time periods of modelled climate by the application of a Bayesian classification procedure.
The strongest influence on winter mass balance is exerted by different indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and precipitation. The correlation coefficients and explained variances determined from the multiple regression analyses reveal an East-West gradient, suggesting a weaker influence of the NAO and NAM on glaciers underlying a more continental regime. The highest correlation coefficients and explained variances were obtained for the 1989-2008 time period, which might be due to a strong and predominantly positive phase of the NAO. Multi-model ensemble means of the estimates show a mass loss for all three eastern glaciers, while the estimates for the more maritime glaciers are ambivalent. In general, the estimates show a greater sensitivity to the training time period than to the greenhouse gas emission scenarios according to which the climates were simulated. The average net mass change by the end of 2100 is negative for all glaciers except for the northern Engabreen. For many glaciers, the Bayesian classification of observed atmospheric states into time periods of modelled climate reveals a decrease in probability of atmospheric states favouring extremes in winter, and an increase in probability of atmospheric states favouring extreme mass loss in summer for the distant future (2071-2100). This pattern of probabilities for the ablation season is most pronounced for glaciers underlying a continental and intermediate regime.
Klimawandelbedingte bzw. potenziell klimawandelbedingte Umweltmigration ist ein sehr komplexes und breites Feld. Es existiert eine Fülle von Studien, die sich in ihrer Herangehensweise unterscheiden, weshalb hier ein Systematisierungsvorschlag aufgezeigt wird. Mittels einer an den Richtlinien der Grounded Theory orientierten Analyse wurden Studien auf zentrale gemeinsame Kategorien hin untersucht und als Modell präsentiert. Dieses stellt jedoch kein abgeschlossenes System dar, sondern dient durch seine Offenheit als Gerüst, das mit Ergebnissen aus weiteren Fallstudien gefestigt werden kann.