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Wetlands are one of the most important ecosystems due to their critical services to both humans and the environment. Therefore, wetland mapping and monitoring are essential for their conservation. In this regard, remote sensing offers efficient solutions due to the availability of cost-efficient archived images over different spatial scales. However, a lack of sufficient consistent training samples at different times is a significant limitation of multi-temporal wetland monitoring. In this study, a new training sample migration method was developed to identify unchanged training samples to be used in wetland classification and change analyses over the International Shadegan Wetland (ISW) areas of southwestern Iran. To this end, we first produced the wetland map of a reference year (2020), for which we had training samples, by combining Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 images and the Random Forest (RF) classifier in Google Earth Engine (GEE). The Overall Accuracy (OA) and Kappa coefficient (KC) of this reference map were 97.93% and 0.97, respectively. Then, an automatic change detection method was developed to migrate unchanged training samples from the reference year to the target years of 2018, 2019, and 2021. Within the proposed method, three indices of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), and the mean Standard Deviation (SD) of the spectral bands, along with two similarity measures of the Euclidean Distance (ED) and Spectral Angle Distance (SAD), were computed for each pair of reference–target years. The optimum threshold for unchanged samples was also derived using a histogram thresholding approach, which led to selecting the samples that were most likely unchanged based on the highest OA and KC for classifying the test dataset. The proposed migration sample method resulted in high OAs of 95.89%, 96.83%, and 97.06% and KCs of 0.95, 0.96, and 0.96 for the target years of 2018, 2019, and 2021, respectively. Finally, the migrated samples were used to generate the wetland map for the target years. Overall, our proposed method showed high potential for wetland mapping and monitoring when no training samples existed for a target year.
Urban areas are population, culture and infrastructure concentration points. Electricity blackouts or interruptions of water supply severely affect people when happening unexpected and at large scale. Interruptions of such infrastructure supply services alone have the potential to trigger crises. But when happening in concert with or as a secondary effect of an earthquake, for example, the crisis situation is often aggravated. This is the case for any country, but it has been observed that even highly industrialised
countries face severe risks when their degree of acquired dependency on services of what is termed Critical Infrastructure results in even bigger losses when occurring unexpectedly in a setting that usually has high reliability of services.
Semi-arid tree covers, in both high and coppice growth forms, play an essential role in protecting water and soil resources and provides multiple ecosystem services across fragile ecosystems. Thus, they require continuous inventories. Quantification of forest structure in these tree covers provides important measures for their management and biodiversity conservation. We present a framework, based on consumer-grade UAV photogrammetry, to separately estimate primary variables of tree height (H) and crown area (A) across diverse coppice and high stands dominated by Quercus brantii Lindl. along the latitudinal gradient of Zagros mountains of western Iran. Then, multivariate linear regressions were parametrized with H and A to estimate the diameter at breast height (DBH) of high trees because of its importance to accelerate the existing practical DBH inventories across Zagros Forests. The estimated variables were finally applied to a model tree aboveground biomass (AGB) for both vegetative growth forms by local allometric equations and Random Forest models. In each step, the estimated variables were evaluated against the field reference values, indicating practically high accuracies reaching root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.68 m and 4.74 cm for H and DBH, as well as relative RMSE < 10% for AGB estimates. The results generally suggest an effective framework for single tree-based attribute estimation over mountainous, semi-arid coppice, and high stands.
Disentangling the relative effects of bushmeat availability on human nutrition in central Africa
(2015)
We studied links between human malnutrition and wild meat availability within the Rainforest Biotic Zone in central Africa. We distinguished two distinct hunted mammalian diversity distributions, one in the rainforest areas (Deep Rainforest Diversity, DRD) containing taxa of lower hunting sustainability, the other in the northern rainforest-savanna mosaic, with species of greater hunting potential (Marginal Rainforest Diversity, MRD). Wild meat availability, assessed by standing crop mammalian biomass, was greater in MRD than in DRD areas. Predicted bushmeat extraction was also higher in MRD areas. Despite this, stunting of children, a measure of human malnutrition, was greater in MRD areas. Structural equation modeling identified that, in MRD areas, mammal diversity fell away from urban areas, but proximity to these positively influenced higher stunting incidence. In DRD areas, remoteness and distance from dense human settlements and infrastructures explained lower stunting levels. Moreover, stunting was higher away from protected areas. Our results suggest that in MRD areas, forest wildlife rational use for better human nutrition is possible. By contrast, the relatively low human populations in DRD areas currently offer abundant opportunities for the continued protection of more vulnerable mammals and allow dietary needs of local populations to be met.
Cu- and Mn-bearing tourmalines from Brazil and Mozambique were characterised chemically (EMPA and LA-ICP-MS) and by X-ray single-crystal structure refinement. All these samples are rich in Al, Li and F (fluor-elbaite) and contain significant amounts of CuO (up to ~1.8 wt%) and MnO (up to ~3.5 wt%). Structurally investigated samples show a pronounced positive correlation between the <Y-O> distances and the (Li + Mn\(^{2+}\) + Cu + Fe\(^{2+}\)) content (apfu) at this site with R\(^2\) = 0.90. An excellent negative correlation exists between the <Y-O> distances and the Al\(_2\)O\(_3\) content (R\(^2\) = 0.94). The samples at each locality generally show a strong negative correlation between the X-site vacancies and the (MnO + FeO) content. The Mn content in these tourmalines depends on the availability of Mn, on the formation temperature, as well as on stereochemical constraints. Because of a very weak correlation between MnO and CuO we believe that the Cu content in tourmaline is essentially dependent on the availability of Cu and on stereochemical constraints.
BACKGROUND: Climate change will probably alter the spread and transmission intensity of malaria in Africa. OBJECTIVES: In this study, we assessed potential changes in the malaria transmission via an integrated weather disease model.
METHODS: We simulated mosquito biting rates using the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM). The input data for the LMM were bias-corrected temperature and precipitation data from the regional model (REMO) on a 0.5 degrees latitude longitude grid. A Plasmodium falciparum infection model expands the LMM simulations to incorporate information on the infection rate among children. Malaria projections were carried out with this integrated weather disease model for 2001 to 2050 according to two climate scenarios that include the effect of anthropogenic land-use and land-cover changes on climate.
RESULTS: Model-based estimates for the present climate (1960 to 2000) are consistent with observed data for the spread of malaria in Africa. In the model domain, the regions where malaria is epidemic are located in the Sahel as well as in various highland territories. A decreased spread of malaria over most parts of tropical Africa is projected because of simulated increased surface temperatures and a significant reduction in annual rainfall. However, the likelihood of malaria epidemics is projected to increase in the southern part of the Sahel. In most of East Africa, the intensity of malaria transmission is expected to increase. Projections indicate that highland areas that were formerly unsuitable for malaria will become epidemic, whereas in the lower-altitude regions of the East African highlands, epidemic risk will decrease.
CONCLUSIONS: We project that climate changes driven by greenhouse-gas and land-use changes will significantly affect the spread of malaria in tropical Africa well before 2050. The geographic distribution of areas where malaria is epidemic might have to be significantly altered in the coming decades.
The Seville Strategy spurred a signifi cant paradigm shift in UNESCO’s MAB Programme, re-conceptualising the research programme as a modern tool for the dual mandate of nature conservation and sustainable development. However, many biosphere reserves failed to comply with the new regulations and in 2013 the ‘Exit Strategy’ was announced to improve the quality of the global network.
This study presents a global assessment of the implementation of the quality enhancement strategies, highlighting signifi cant differences worldwide through 20 country-specifi c case studies. It concludes that the strategies have been fundamental in improving the credibility and coherence of the MAB Programme. Challenges in the implementation were not unique to individual countries but were common to all Member States with pre-Seville sites, and in many states the process has led to a rejuvenation of national biosphere reserve networks.
Interactions between different formative processes are reflected in the internal structure of rock glaciers. Therefore, the detection of subsurface conditions can help to enhance our understanding of landform development. For an assessment of subsurface conditions, we present an analysis of the spatial variability of active layer thickness, ground ice content and frost table topography for two different rock glaciers in the Eastern Swiss Alps by means of quasi-3-D electrical resistivity imaging (ERI). This approach enables an extensive mapping of subsurface structures and a spatial overlay between site-specific surface and subsurface characteristics. At Nair rock glacier, we discovered a gradual descent of the frost table in a downslope direction and a constant decrease of ice content which follows the observed surface topography. This is attributed to ice formation by refreezing meltwater from an embedded snow bank or from a subsurface ice patch which reshapes the permafrost layer. The heterogeneous ground ice distribution at Uertsch rock glacier indicates that multiple processes on different time domains were involved in the development. Resistivity values which represent frozen conditions vary within a wide range and indicate a successive formation which includes several advances, past glacial overrides and creep processes on the rock glacier surface. In combination with the observed topography, quasi-3-D ERI enables us to delimit areas of extensive and compressive flow in close proximity. Excellent data quality was provided by a good coupling of electrodes to the ground in the pebbly material of the investigated rock glaciers. Results show the value of the quasi-3-D ERI approach but advise the application of complementary geophysical methods for interpreting the results.
The natural cyclical development of palsas makes it difficult to use visible signs of decay as reference points for environmental change. Thus, to determine the actual development stage of a palsa, investigations of the internal structure are crucial. Our study presents 2‐D and 3‐D electrical resistivity imaging (ERI) and 2‐D ground‐penetrating radar (GPR) results, measurements of surface and subsurface temperatures, and of the soil matric potential from Orravatnsrústir Palsa Site in Central Iceland. By a joint interpretation of the results, we deduce the internal structure (i.e., thickness of thaw zone and permafrost, ice/water content) of five palsas of different size and shape. The results differentiate between initial and mature development stages and show that palsas of different development stages can exist in close proximity. While internal characteristics indicate undisturbed development of four palsas, one palsa shows indications of environmental change. Our study shows the value of the multimethod geophysical approach and introduces measurements of the soil matric potential as a promising method to assess the current state of the subsurface.
Periglacial environments are facing dramatic changes. Warming air temperatures and strong snow cover variations fundamentally affect landforming processes in this hotspot region of Climate Change. But before we can assess the response of landform development to a changing climate, we need to enhance our understanding of the internal structure of those landforms. Within this study, a broad scope of landform types from alpine and subarctic regions is investigated: rock glaciers, solifluction lobes, palsas and patterned ground. By using the geophysical methods 2-D and 3-D ERI, as well as GPR surveying, structural differences and similarities between landform units of different or the same landform types are highlighted. This enables a reconstruction of their past and a projection of their future development.
The 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajokull volcano was characterized by pulsating activity. Discrete ash bursts merged at higher altitude and formed a sustained quasi-continuous eruption column. High-resolution near-field videos were recorded on 8-10 May, during the second explosive phase of the eruption, and supplemented by contemporary aerial observations. In the observed period, pulses occurred at intervals of 0.8 to 23.4 s (average, 4.2 s). On the basis of video analysis, the pulse volume and the velocity of the reversely buoyant jets that initiated each pulse were determined. The expansion history of jets was tracked until the pulses reached the height of transition from a negatively buoyant jet to a convective buoyant plume about 100 m above the vent. Based on the assumption that the density of the gas-solid mixture making up the pulse approximates that of the surrounding air at the level of transition from the jet to the plume, a mass flux ranging between 2.2 and 3.5 . 10\(^4\) kg/s was calculated. This mass eruption rate is in good agreement with results obtained with simple models relating plume height with mass discharge at the vent. Our findings indicate that near-field measurements of eruption source parameters in a pulsating eruption may prove to be an effective monitoring tool. A comparison of the observed pulses with those generated in calibrated large-scale experiments reveals very similar characteristics and suggests that the analysis of near-field sensors could in the future help to constrain the triggering mechanism of explosive eruptions.
Understanding the mechanisms of fragmentation within silicate melts is of great interest not only for material science, but also for volcanology, particularly regarding molten fuel coolant-interactions (MFCIs). Therefore edge-on hammer impact experiments (HIEs) have been carried out in order to analyze the fracture dynamics in well defined targets by applying a Cranz-Schardin highspeed camera technique. This thesis presents the corresponding results and provides a thorough insight into the dynamics of fragmentation, particularly focussing on the processes of energy dissipation. In HIEs two main classes of cracks can be identified, characterized by completely different fracture mechanisms: Shock wave induced “damage cracks” and “normal cracks”, which are exclusively caused by shear-stresses. This dual fracture situation is taken into account by introducing a new concept, according to which the crack class-specific fracture energies are linearly correlated with the corresponding fracture areas. The respective proportionality constants - denoted “fracture surface energy densities” (FSEDs) - have been quantified for all studied targets under various constraints. By analyzing the corresponding high speed image sequences and introducing useful dynamic parameters it has been possible to specify and describe in detail the evolution of fractures and, moreover, to quantify the energy dissipation rates during the fragmentation. Additionally, comprehensive multivariate statistical analyses have been carried out which have revealed general dependencies of all relevant fracture parameters as well as characteristics of the resulting particles. As a result, an important principle of fracture dynamics has been found, referred to as the “local anisotropy effect”: According to this principle, the fracture dynamics in a material is significantly affected by the location of directed stresses. High local stress gradients cause a more stable crack propagation and consequently a reduction of the energy dissipation rates. As a final step, this thesis focusses on the volcanological conclusions which can be drawn on the basis of the presented HIE results. Therefore fragments stemming from HIEs have been compared with natural and experimental volcanic ash particles of basaltic Grimsvötn and rhyolitic Tepexitl melts. The results of these comparative particle analyses substantiate HIEs to be a very suitable method for reproducing the MFCI loading conditions in silicate melts and prove the FSED concept to be a model which is well transferable to volcanic fragmentation processes.
Advancing land degradation in the irrigated areas of Central Asia hinders sustainable development of this predominantly agricultural region. To support decisions on mitigating cropland degradation, this study combines linear trend analysis and spatial logistic regression modeling to expose a land degradation trend in the Khorezm region, Uzbekistan, and to analyze the causes. Time series of the 250-m MODIS NDVI, summed over the growing seasons of 2000–2010, were used to derive areas with an apparent negative vegetation trend; this was interpreted as an indicator of land degradation. About one third (161,000 ha) of the region’s area experienced negative trends of different magnitude. The vegetation decline was particularly evident on the low-fertility lands bordering on the natural sandy desert, suggesting that these areas should be prioritized in mitigation planning. The results of logistic modeling indicate that the spatial pattern of the observed trend is mainly associated with the level of the groundwater table (odds = 330 %), land-use intensity (odds = 103 %), low soil quality (odds = 49 %), slope (odds = 29 %), and salinity of the groundwater (odds = 26 %). Areas, threatened by land degradation, were mapped by fitting the estimated model parameters to available data. The elaborated approach, combining remote-sensing and GIS, can form the basis for developing a common tool for monitoring land degradation trends in irrigated croplands of Central Asia.
The surface urban heat island (SUHI) affects the quality of urban life. Because varying urban structures have varying impacts on SUHI, it is crucial to understand the impact of land use/land cover characteristics for improving the quality of life in cities and urban health. Satellite-based data on land surface temperatures (LST) and derived land use/cover pattern (LUCP) indicators provide an efficient opportunity to derive the required data at a large scale. This study explores the seasonal and diurnal variation of spatial associations from LUCP and LST employing Pearson correlation and ordinary least squares regression analysis. Specifically, Landsat-8 images were utilized to derive LSTs in four seasons, taking Berlin as a case study. The results indicate that: (1) in terms of land cover, hot spots are mainly distributed over transportation, commercial and industrial land in the daytime, while wetlands were identified as hot spots during nighttime; (2) from the land composition indicators, the normalized difference built-up index (NDBI) showed the strongest influence in summer, while the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) exhibited the biggest impact in winter; (3) from urban morphological parameters, the building density showed an especially significant positive association with LST and the strongest effect during daytime.
Supraglacial lakes can have considerable impact on ice sheet mass balance and global sea-level-rise through ice shelf fracturing and subsequent glacier speedup. In Antarctica, the distribution and temporal development of supraglacial lakes as well as their potential contribution to increased ice mass loss remains largely unknown, requiring a detailed mapping of the Antarctic surface hydrological network. In this study, we employ a Machine Learning algorithm trained on Sentinel-2 and auxiliary TanDEM-X topographic data for automated mapping of Antarctic supraglacial lakes. To ensure the spatio-temporal transferability of our method, a Random Forest was trained on 14 training regions and applied over eight spatially independent test regions distributed across the whole Antarctic continent. In addition, we employed our workflow for large-scale application over Amery Ice Shelf where we calculated interannual supraglacial lake dynamics between 2017 and 2020 at full ice shelf coverage. To validate our supraglacial lake detection algorithm, we randomly created point samples over our classification results and compared them to Sentinel-2 imagery. The point comparisons were evaluated using a confusion matrix for calculation of selected accuracy metrics. Our analysis revealed wide-spread supraglacial lake occurrence in all three Antarctic regions. For the first time, we identified supraglacial meltwater features on Abbott, Hull and Cosgrove Ice Shelves in West Antarctica as well as for the entire Amery Ice Shelf for years 2017–2020. Over Amery Ice Shelf, maximum lake extent varied strongly between the years with the 2019 melt season characterized by the largest areal coverage of supraglacial lakes (~763 km\(^2\)). The accuracy assessment over the test regions revealed an average Kappa coefficient of 0.86 where the largest value of Kappa reached 0.98 over George VI Ice Shelf. Future developments will involve the generation of circum-Antarctic supraglacial lake mapping products as well as their use for further methodological developments using Sentinel-1 SAR data in order to characterize intraannual supraglacial meltwater dynamics also during polar night and independent of meteorological conditions. In summary, the implementation of the Random Forest classifier enabled the development of the first automated mapping method applied to Sentinel-2 data distributed across all three Antarctic regions.
Supraglacial meltwater accumulation on ice sheets can be a main driver for accelerated ice discharge, mass loss, and global sea-level-rise. With further increasing surface air temperatures, meltwater-induced hydrofracturing, basal sliding, or surface thinning will cumulate and most likely trigger unprecedented ice mass loss on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. While the Greenland surface hydrological network as well as its impacts on ice dynamics and mass balance has been studied in much detail, Antarctic supraglacial lakes remain understudied with a circum-Antarctic record of their spatio-temporal development entirely lacking. This study provides the first automated supraglacial lake extent mapping method using Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery over Antarctica and complements the developed optical Sentinel-2 supraglacial lake detection algorithm presented in our companion paper. In detail, we propose the use of a modified U-Net for semantic segmentation of supraglacial lakes in single-polarized Sentinel-1 imagery. The convolutional neural network (CNN) is implemented with residual connections for optimized performance as well as an Atrous Spatial Pyramid Pooling (ASPP) module for multiscale feature extraction. The algorithm is trained on 21,200 Sentinel-1 image patches and evaluated in ten spatially or temporally independent test acquisitions. In addition, George VI Ice Shelf is analyzed for intra-annual lake dynamics throughout austral summer 2019/2020 and a decision-level fused Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 maximum lake extent mapping product is presented for January 2020 revealing a more complete supraglacial lake coverage (~770 km\(^2\)) than the individual single-sensor products. Classification results confirm the reliability of the proposed workflow with an average Kappa coefficient of 0.925 and a F\(_1\)-score of 93.0% for the supraglacial water class across all test regions. Furthermore, the algorithm is applied in an additional test region covering supraglacial lakes on the Greenland ice sheet which further highlights the potential for spatio-temporal transferability. Future work involves the integration of more training data as well as intra-annual analyses of supraglacial lake occurrence across the whole continent and with focus on supraglacial lake development throughout a summer melt season and into Antarctic winter.
With accelerating global climate change, the Antarctic Ice Sheet is exposed to increasing ice dynamic change. During 1992 and 2017, Antarctica contributed ~7.6 mm to global sea-level-rise mainly due to ocean thermal forcing along West Antarctica and atmospheric warming along the Antarctic Peninsula (API). Together, these processes caused the progressive retreat of glaciers and ice shelves and weakened their efficient buttressing force causing widespread ice flow accelerations. Holding ~91% of the global ice mass and 57.3 m of sea-level-equivalent, the Antarctic Ice Sheet is by far the largest potential contributor to future sea-level-rise.
Despite the improved understanding of Antarctic ice dynamics, the future of Antarctica remains difficult to predict with its contribution to global sea-level-rise representing the largest uncertainty in current projections. Given that recent studies point towards atmospheric warming and melt intensification to become a dominant driver for future Antarctic ice mass loss, the monitoring of supraglacial lakes and their impacts on ice dynamics is of utmost importance. In this regard, recent progress in Earth Observation provides an abundance of high-resolution optical and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite data at unprecedented spatial and temporal coverage and greatly supports the monitoring of the Antarctic continent where ground-based mapping efforts are difficult to perform. As an automated mapping technique for supraglacial lake extent delineation in optical and SAR satellite imagery as well as a pan-Antarctic inventory of Antarctic supraglacial lakes at high spatial and temporal resolution is entirely missing, this thesis aims to advance the understanding of Antarctic surface hydrology through exploitation of spaceborne remote sensing.
In particular, a detailed literature review on spaceborne remote sensing of Antarctic supraglacial lakes identified several research gaps including the lack of (1) an automated mapping technique for optical or SAR satellite data that is transferable in space and time, (2) high-resolution supraglacial lake extent mappings at intra-annual and inter-annual temporal resolution and (3) large-scale mapping efforts across the entire Antarctic continent. In addition, past method developments were found to be restricted to purely visual, manual or semi-automated mapping techniques hindering their application to multi-temporal satellite imagery at large-scale. In this context, the development of automated mapping techniques was mainly limited by sensor-specific characteristics including the similar appearance of supraglacial lakes and other ice sheet surface features in optical or SAR data, the varying temporal signature of supraglacial lakes throughout the year as well as effects such as speckle noise and wind roughening in SAR data or cloud coverage in optical data. To overcome these limitations, this thesis exploits methods from artificial intelligence and big data processing for development of an automated processing chain for supraglacial lake extent delineation in Sentinel-1 SAR and optical Sentinel-2 satellite imagery. The combination of both sensor types enabled to capture both surface and subsurface lakes as well as to acquire data during cloud cover or wind roughening of lakes. For Sentinel-1, a deep convolutional neural network based on residual U-Net was trained on the basis of 21,200 labeled Sentinel-1 SAR image patches covering 13 Antarctic regions. Similarly, optical Sentinel-2 data were collected over 14 Antarctic regions and used for training of a Random Forest classifier. Optical and SAR classification products were combined through decision-level fusion at bi-weekly temporal scale and unprecedented 10 m spatial resolution. Finally, the method was implemented as part of DLR’s High-Performance Computing infrastructure allowing for an automated processing of large amounts of data including all required pre- and postprocessing steps. The results of an accuracy assessment over independent test scenes highlighted the functionality of the classifiers returning accuracies of 93% and 95% for supraglacial lakes in Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 satellite imagery, respectively.
Exploiting the full archive of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2, the developed framework for the first time enabled the monitoring of seasonal characteristics of Antarctic supraglacial lakes over six major ice shelves in 2015-2021. In particular, the results for API ice shelves revealed low lake coverage during 2015-2018 and particularly high lake coverage during the 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 melting seasons. On the contrary, East Antarctic ice shelves were characterized by high lake coverage during 2016-2019 and
extremely low lake coverage during the 2020-2021 melting season. Over all six investigated ice shelves, the development of drainage systems was revealed highlighting an increased risk for ice shelf instability. Through statistical correlation analysis with climate data at varying time lags as well as annual data on Southern Hemisphere atmospheric modes, environmental drivers for meltwater ponding were revealed. In addition, the influence of the local glaciological setting was investigated through computation of annual recurrence times of lakes. Over both ice sheet regions, the complex interplay between local, regional and large-scale environmental drivers was found to control supraglacial lake formation despite local to regional discrepancies, as revealed through pixel-based correlation analysis. Local control factors included the ice surface topography, the ice shelf geometry, the presence of low-albedo features as well as a reduced firn air content and were found to exert strong control on lake distribution. On the other hand, regional controls on lake evolution were revealed to be the amount of incoming solar radiation, air temperature and wind occurrence. While foehn winds were found to dictate lake evolution over the API, katabatic winds influenced lake ponding in East Antarctica. Furthermore, the regional near-surface climate was shown to be driven by large-scale atmospheric modes and teleconnections with the tropics. Overall, the results highlight that similar driving factors control supraglacial lake formation on the API and EAIS pointing towards their transferability to other Antarctic regions.
Central Asia consists of the five former Soviet States Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, therefore comprising an area of similar to 4 Mio km(2). The continental climate is characterized by hot and dry summer months and cold winter seasons with most precipitation occurring as snowfall. Accordingly, freshwater supply is strongly depending on the amount of accumulated snow as well as the moment of its release after snowmelt. The aim of the presented study is to identify possible changes in snow cover characteristics, consisting of snow cover duration, onset and offset of snow cover season within the last 28 years. Relying on remotely sensed data originating from medium resolution imagers, these snow cover characteristics are extracted on a daily basis. The resolution of 500-1000 m allows for a subsequent analysis of changes on the scale of hydrological sub-catchments. Long-term changes are identified from this unique dataset, revealing an ongoing shift towards earlier snowmelt within the Central Asian Mountains. This shift can be observed in most upstream hydro catchments within Pamir and Tian Shan Mountains and it leads to a potential change of freshwater availability in the downstream regions, exerting additional pressure on the already tensed situation.
We analyze the processing of cereals and its role at Early Neolithic Göbekli Tepe, southeastern Anatolia (10th / 9th millennium BC), a site that has aroused much debate in archaeological discourse. To date, only zooarchaeological evidence has been discussed in regard to the subsistence of its builders. Göbekli Tepe consists of monumental round to oval buildings, erected in an earlier phase, and smaller rectangular buildings, built around them in a partially contemporaneous and later phase. The monumental buildings are best known as they were in the focus of research. They are around 20 m in diameter and have stone pillars that are up to 5.5 m high and often richly decorated. The rectangular buildings are smaller and–in some cases–have up to 2 m high, mostly undecorated, pillars. Especially striking is the number of tools related to food processing, including grinding slabs/bowls, handstones, pestles, and mortars, which have not been studied before. We analyzed more than 7000 artifacts for the present contribution. The high frequency of artifacts is unusual for contemporary sites in the region. Using an integrated approach of formal, experimental, and macro- / microscopical use-wear analyses we show that Neolithic people at Göbekli Tepe have produced standardized and efficient grinding tools, most of which have been used for the processing of cereals. Additional phytolith analysis confirms the massive presence of cereals at the site, filling the gap left by the weakly preserved charred macro-rests. The organization of work and food supply has always been a central question of research into Göbekli Tepe, as the construction and maintenance of the monumental architecture would have necessitated a considerable work force. Contextual analyses of the distribution of the elements of the grinding kit on site highlight a clear link between plant food preparation and the rectangular buildings and indicate clear delimitations of working areas for food production on the terraces the structures lie on, surrounding the circular buildings. There is evidence for extensive plant food processing and archaeozoological data hint at large-scale hunting of gazelle between midsummer and autumn. As no large storage facilities have been identified, we argue for a production of food for immediate use and interpret these seasonal peaks in activity at the site as evidence for the organization of large work feasts.
The increasing availability and variety of global satellite products and the rapid development of new algorithms has provided great potential to generate a new level of data with different spatial, temporal, and spectral resolutions. However, the ability of these synthetic spatiotemporal datasets to accurately map and monitor our planet on a field or regional scale remains underexplored. This study aimed to support future research efforts in estimating crop yields by identifying the optimal spatial (10 m, 30 m, or 250 m) and temporal (8 or 16 days) resolutions on a regional scale. The current study explored and discussed the suitability of four different synthetic (Landsat (L)-MOD13Q1 (30 m, 8 and 16 days) and Sentinel-2 (S)-MOD13Q1 (10 m, 8 and 16 days)) and two real (MOD13Q1 (250 m, 8 and 16 days)) NDVI products combined separately to two widely used crop growth models (CGMs) (World Food Studies (WOFOST), and the semi-empiric Light Use Efficiency approach (LUE)) for winter wheat (WW) and oil seed rape (OSR) yield forecasts in Bavaria (70,550 km\(^2\)) for the year 2019. For WW and OSR, the synthetic products’ high spatial and temporal resolution resulted in higher yield accuracies using LUE and WOFOST. The observations of high temporal resolution (8-day) products of both S-MOD13Q1 and L-MOD13Q1 played a significant role in accurately measuring the yield of WW and OSR. For example, L- and S-MOD13Q1 resulted in an R\(^2\) = 0.82 and 0.85, RMSE = 5.46 and 5.01 dt/ha for WW, R\(^2\) = 0.89 and 0.82, and RMSE = 2.23 and 2.11 dt/ha for OSR using the LUE model, respectively. Similarly, for the 8- and 16-day products, the simple LUE model (R\(^2\) = 0.77 and relative RMSE (RRMSE) = 8.17%) required fewer input parameters to simulate crop yield and was highly accurate, reliable, and more precise than the complex WOFOST model (R\(^2\) = 0.66 and RRMSE = 11.35%) with higher input parameters. Conclusively, both S-MOD13Q1 and L-MOD13Q1, in combination with LUE, were more prominent for predicting crop yields on a regional scale than the 16-day products; however, L-MOD13Q1 was advantageous for generating and exploring the long-term yield time series due to the availability of Landsat data since 1982, with a maximum resolution of 30 m. In addition, this study recommended the further use of its findings for implementing and validating the long-term crop yield time series in different regions of the world.
Spatiotemporal Fusion Modelling Using STARFM: Examples of Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 NDVI in Bavaria
(2022)
The increasing availability and variety of global satellite products provide a new level of data with different spatial, temporal, and spectral resolutions; however, identifying the most suited resolution for a specific application consumes increasingly more time and computation effort. The region’s cloud coverage additionally influences the choice of the best trade-off between spatial and temporal resolution, and different pixel sizes of remote sensing (RS) data may hinder the accurate monitoring of different land cover (LC) classes such as agriculture, forest, grassland, water, urban, and natural-seminatural. To investigate the importance of RS data for these LC classes, the present study fuses NDVIs of two high spatial resolution data (high pair) (Landsat (30 m, 16 days; L) and Sentinel-2 (10 m, 5–6 days; S), with four low spatial resolution data (low pair) (MOD13Q1 (250 m, 16 days), MCD43A4 (500 m, one day), MOD09GQ (250 m, one-day), and MOD09Q1 (250 m, eight day)) using the spatial and temporal adaptive reflectance fusion model (STARFM), which fills regions’ cloud or shadow gaps without losing spatial information. These eight synthetic NDVI STARFM products (2: high pair multiply 4: low pair) offer a spatial resolution of 10 or 30 m and temporal resolution of 1, 8, or 16 days for the entire state of Bavaria (Germany) in 2019. Due to their higher revisit frequency and more cloud and shadow-free scenes (S = 13, L = 9), Sentinel-2 (overall R\(^2\) = 0.71, and RMSE = 0.11) synthetic NDVI products provide more accurate results than Landsat (overall R\(^2\) = 0.61, and RMSE = 0.13). Likewise, for the agriculture class, synthetic products obtained using Sentinel-2 resulted in higher accuracy than Landsat except for L-MOD13Q1 (R\(^2\) = 0.62, RMSE = 0.11), resulting in similar accuracy preciseness as S-MOD13Q1 (R\(^2\) = 0.68, RMSE = 0.13). Similarly, comparing L-MOD13Q1 (R\(^2\) = 0.60, RMSE = 0.05) and S-MOD13Q1 (R\(^2\) = 0.52, RMSE = 0.09) for the forest class, the former resulted in higher accuracy and precision than the latter. Conclusively, both L-MOD13Q1 and S-MOD13Q1 are suitable for agricultural and forest monitoring; however, the spatial resolution of 30 m and low storage capacity makes L-MOD13Q1 more prominent and faster than that of S-MOD13Q1 with the 10-m spatial resolution.
Rapid and accurate yield estimates at both field and regional levels remain the goal of sustainable agriculture and food security. Hereby, the identification of consistent and reliable methodologies providing accurate yield predictions is one of the hot topics in agricultural research. This study investigated the relationship of spatiotemporal fusion modelling using STRAFM on crop yield prediction for winter wheat (WW) and oil-seed rape (OSR) using a semi-empirical light use efficiency (LUE) model for the Free State of Bavaria (70,550 km\(^2\)), Germany, from 2001 to 2019. A synthetic normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series was generated and validated by fusing the high spatial resolution (30 m, 16 days) Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) (2001 to 2012), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) (2012), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) (2013 to 2019) with the coarse resolution of MOD13Q1 (250 m, 16 days) from 2001 to 2019. Except for some temporal periods (i.e., 2001, 2002, and 2012), the study obtained an R\(^2\) of more than 0.65 and a RMSE of less than 0.11, which proves that the Landsat 8 OLI fused products are of higher accuracy than the Landsat 5 TM products. Moreover, the accuracies of the NDVI fusion data have been found to correlate with the total number of available Landsat scenes every year (N), with a correlation coefficient (R) of +0.83 (between R\(^2\) of yearly synthetic NDVIs and N) and −0.84 (between RMSEs and N). For crop yield prediction, the synthetic NDVI time series and climate elements (such as minimum temperature, maximum temperature, relative humidity, evaporation, transpiration, and solar radiation) are inputted to the LUE model, resulting in an average R\(^2\) of 0.75 (WW) and 0.73 (OSR), and RMSEs of 4.33 dt/ha and 2.19 dt/ha. The yield prediction results prove the consistency and stability of the LUE model for yield estimation. Using the LUE model, accurate crop yield predictions were obtained for WW (R\(^2\) = 0.88) and OSR (R\(^2\) = 0.74). Lastly, the study observed a high positive correlation of R = 0.81 and R = 0.77 between the yearly R\(^2\) of synthetic accuracy and modelled yield accuracy for WW and OSR, respectively.
The fast and accurate yield estimates with the increasing availability and variety of global satellite products and the rapid development of new algorithms remain a goal for precision agriculture and food security. However, the consistency and reliability of suitable methodologies that provide accurate crop yield outcomes still need to be explored. The study investigates the coupling of crop modeling and machine learning (ML) to improve the yield prediction of winter wheat (WW) and oil seed rape (OSR) and provides examples for the Free State of Bavaria (70,550 km2), Germany, in 2019. The main objectives are to find whether a coupling approach [Light Use Efficiency (LUE) + Random Forest (RF)] would result in better and more accurate yield predictions compared to results provided with other models not using the LUE. Four different RF models [RF1 (input: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)), RF2 (input: climate variables), RF3 (input: NDVI + climate variables), RF4 (input: LUE generated biomass + climate variables)], and one semi-empiric LUE model were designed with different input requirements to find the best predictors of crop monitoring. The results indicate that the individual use of the NDVI (in RF1) and the climate variables (in RF2) could not be the most accurate, reliable, and precise solution for crop monitoring; however, their combined use (in RF3) resulted in higher accuracies. Notably, the study suggested the coupling of the LUE model variables to the RF4 model can reduce the relative root mean square error (RRMSE) from −8% (WW) and −1.6% (OSR) and increase the R
2 by 14.3% (for both WW and OSR), compared to results just relying on LUE. Moreover, the research compares models yield outputs by inputting three different spatial inputs: Sentinel-2(S)-MOD13Q1 (10 m), Landsat (L)-MOD13Q1 (30 m), and MOD13Q1 (MODIS) (250 m). The S-MOD13Q1 data has relatively improved the performance of models with higher mean R
2 [0.80 (WW), 0.69 (OSR)], and lower RRMSE (%) (9.18, 10.21) compared to L-MOD13Q1 (30 m) and MOD13Q1 (250 m). Satellite-based crop biomass, solar radiation, and temperature are found to be the most influential variables in the yield prediction of both crops.
This study compares the performance of the five widely used crop growth models (CGMs): World Food Studies (WOFOST), Coalition for Environmentally Responsible Economies (CERES)-Wheat, AquaCrop, cropping systems simulation model (CropSyst), and the semi-empiric light use efficiency approach (LUE) for the prediction of winter wheat biomass on the Durable Environmental Multidisciplinary Monitoring Information Network (DEMMIN) test site, Germany. The study focuses on the use of remote sensing (RS) data, acquired in 2015, in CGMs, as they offer spatial information on the actual conditions of the vegetation. Along with this, the study investigates the data fusion of Landsat (30 m) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) (500 m) data using the spatial and temporal reflectance adaptive reflectance fusion model (STARFM) fusion algorithm. These synthetic RS data offer a 30-m spatial and one-day temporal resolution. The dataset therefore provides the necessary information to run CGMs and it is possible to examine the fine-scale spatial and temporal changes in crop phenology for specific fields, or sub sections of them, and to monitor crop growth daily, considering the impact of daily climate variability. The analysis includes a detailed comparison of the simulated and measured crop biomass. The modelled crop biomass using synthetic RS data is compared to the model outputs using the original MODIS time series as well. On comparison with the MODIS product, the study finds the performance of CGMs more reliable, precise, and significant with synthetic time series. Using synthetic RS data, the models AquaCrop and LUE, in contrast to other models, simulate the winter wheat biomass best, with an output of high R2 (>0.82), low RMSE (<600 g/m\(^2\)) and significant p-value (<0.05) during the study period. However, inputting MODIS data makes the models underperform, with low R2 (<0.68) and high RMSE (>600 g/m\(^2\)). The study shows that the models requiring fewer input parameters (AquaCrop and LUE) to simulate crop biomass are highly applicable and precise. At the same time, they are easier to implement than models, which need more input parameters (WOFOST and CERES-Wheat).
Accurate crop monitoring in response to climate change at a regional or field scale
plays a significant role in developing agricultural policies, improving food security,
forecasting, and analysing global trade trends. Climate change is expected to
significantly impact agriculture, with shifts in temperature, precipitation patterns, and
extreme weather events negatively affecting crop yields, soil fertility, water availability,
biodiversity, and crop growing conditions. Remote sensing (RS) can provide valuable
information combined with crop growth models (CGMs) for yield assessment by
monitoring crop development, detecting crop changes, and assessing the impact of
climate change on crop yields. This dissertation aims to investigate the potential of RS
data on modelling long-term crop yields of winter wheat (WW) and oil seed rape (OSR)
for the Free State of Bavaria (70,550 km2
), Germany. The first chapter of the dissertation
describes the reasons favouring the importance of accurate crop yield predictions for
achieving sustainability in agriculture. Chapter second explores the accuracy
assessment of the synthetic RS data by fusing NDVIs of two high spatial resolution data
(high pair) (Landsat (30 m, 16-days; L) and Sentinel-2 (10 m, 5–6 days; S), with four low
spatial resolution data (low pair) (MOD13Q1 (250 m, 16-days), MCD43A4 (500 m, one
day), MOD09GQ (250 m, one-day), and MOD09Q1 (250 m, 8-days)) using the spatial
and temporal adaptive reflectance fusion model (STARFM), which fills regions' cloud
or shadow gaps without losing spatial information. The chapter finds that both L-MOD13Q1 (R2 = 0.62, RMSE = 0.11) and S-MOD13Q1 (R2 = 0.68, RMSE = 0.13) are more
suitable for agricultural monitoring than the other synthetic products fused. Chapter
third explores the ability of the synthetic spatiotemporal datasets (obtained in chapter
2) to accurately map and monitor crop yields of WW and OSR at a regional scale. The
chapter investigates and discusses the optimal spatial (10 m, 30 m, or 250 m), temporal
(8 or 16-day) and CGMs (World Food Studies (WOFOST), and the semi-empiric light
use efficiency approach (LUE)) for accurate crop yield estimations of both crop types.
Chapter third observes that the observations of high temporal resolution (8-day)
products of both S-MOD13Q1 and L-MOD13Q1 play a significant role in accurately
measuring the yield of WW and OSR. The chapter investigates that the simple light use
efficiency (LUE) model (R2 = 0.77 and relative RMSE (RRMSE) = 8.17%) that required fewer input parameters to simulate crop yield is highly accurate, reliable, and more
precise than the complex WOFOST model (R2 = 0.66 and RRMSE = 11.35%) with higher
input parameters. Chapter four researches the relationship of spatiotemporal fusion
modelling using STRAFM on crop yield prediction for WW and OSR using the LUE
model for Bavaria from 2001 to 2019. The chapter states the high positive correlation
coefficient (R) = 0.81 and R = 0.77 between the yearly R2 of synthetic accuracy and
modelled yield accuracy for WW and OSR from 2001 to 2019, respectively. The chapter
analyses the impact of climate variables on crop yield predictions by observing an
increase in R2
(0.79 (WW)/0.86 (OSR)) and a decrease in RMSE (4.51/2.57 dt/ha) when
the climate effect is included in the model. The fifth chapter suggests that the coupling
of the LUE model to the random forest (RF) model can further reduce the relative root
mean square error (RRMSE) from -8% (WW) and -1.6% (OSR) and increase the R2 by
14.3% (for both WW and OSR), compared to results just relying on LUE. The same
chapter concludes that satellite-based crop biomass, solar radiation, and temperature
are the most influential variables in the yield prediction of both crop types. Chapter six
attempts to discuss both pros and cons of RS technology while analysing the impact of
land use diversity on crop-modelled biomass of WW and OSR. The chapter finds that
the modelled biomass of both crops is positively impacted by land use diversity to the
radius of 450 (Shannon Diversity Index ~0.75) and 1050 m (~0.75), respectively. The
chapter also discusses the future implications by stating that including some dependent
factors (such as the management practices used, soil health, pest management, and
pollinators) could improve the relationship of RS-modelled crop yields with
biodiversity. Lastly, chapter seven discusses testing the scope of new sensors such as
unmanned aerial vehicles, hyperspectral sensors, or Sentinel-1 SAR in RS for achieving
accurate crop yield predictions for precision farming. In addition, the chapter highlights
the significance of artificial intelligence (AI) or deep learning (DL) in obtaining higher
crop yield accuracies.
Accurate crop monitoring in response to climate change at a regional or field scale plays a significant role in developing agricultural policies, improving food security, forecasting, and analysing global trade trends. Climate change is expected to significantly impact agriculture, with shifts in temperature, precipitation patterns, and extreme weather events negatively affecting crop yields, soil fertility, water availability, biodiversity, and crop growing conditions. Remote sensing (RS) can provide valuable information combined with crop growth models (CGMs) for yield assessment by monitoring crop development, detecting crop changes, and assessing the impact of climate change on crop yields. This dissertation aims to investigate the potential of RS data on modelling long-term crop yields of winter wheat (WW) and oil seed rape (OSR) for the Free State of Bavaria (70,550 km2), Germany. The first chapter of the dissertation describes the reasons favouring the importance of accurate crop yield predictions for achieving sustainability in agriculture. Chapter second explores the accuracy assessment of the synthetic RS data by fusing NDVIs of two high spatial resolution data (high pair) (Landsat (30 m, 16-days; L) and Sentinel-2 (10 m, 5–6 days; S), with four low spatial resolution data (low pair) (MOD13Q1 (250 m, 16-days), MCD43A4 (500 m, one day), MOD09GQ (250 m, one-day), and MOD09Q1 (250 m, 8-days)) using the spatial and temporal adaptive reflectance fusion model (STARFM), which fills regions' cloud or shadow gaps without losing spatial information. The chapter finds that both L-MOD13Q1 (R2 = 0.62, RMSE = 0.11) and S-MOD13Q1 (R2 = 0.68, RMSE = 0.13) are more suitable for agricultural monitoring than the other synthetic products fused. Chapter third explores the ability of the synthetic spatiotemporal datasets (obtained in chapter 2) to accurately map and monitor crop yields of WW and OSR at a regional scale. The chapter investigates and discusses the optimal spatial (10 m, 30 m, or 250 m), temporal (8 or 16-day) and CGMs (World Food Studies (WOFOST), and the semi-empiric light use efficiency approach (LUE)) for accurate crop yield estimations of both crop types. Chapter third observes that the observations of high temporal resolution (8-day) products of both S-MOD13Q1 and L-MOD13Q1 play a significant role in accurately measuring the yield of WW and OSR. The chapter investigates that the simple light use efficiency (LUE) model (R2 = 0.77 and relative RMSE (RRMSE) = 8.17%) that required fewer input parameters to simulate crop yield is highly accurate, reliable, and more precise than the complex WOFOST model (R2 = 0.66 and RRMSE = 11.35%) with higher input parameters. Chapter four researches the relationship of spatiotemporal fusion modelling using STRAFM on crop yield prediction for WW and OSR using the LUE model for Bavaria from 2001 to 2019. The chapter states the high positive correlation coefficient (R) = 0.81 and R = 0.77 between the yearly R2 of synthetic accuracy and modelled yield accuracy for WW and OSR from 2001 to 2019, respectively. The chapter analyses the impact of climate variables on crop yield predictions by observing an increase in R2 (0.79 (WW)/0.86 (OSR)) and a decrease in RMSE (4.51/2.57 dt/ha) when the climate effect is included in the model. The fifth chapter suggests that the coupling of the LUE model to the random forest (RF) model can further reduce the relative root mean square error (RRMSE) from -8% (WW) and -1.6% (OSR) and increase the R2 by 14.3% (for both WW and OSR), compared to results just relying on LUE. The same chapter concludes that satellite-based crop biomass, solar radiation, and temperature are the most influential variables in the yield prediction of both crop types. Chapter six attempts to discuss both pros and cons of RS technology while analysing the impact of land use diversity on crop-modelled biomass of WW and OSR. The chapter finds that the modelled biomass of both crops is positively impacted by land use diversity to the radius of 450 (Shannon Diversity Index ~0.75) and 1050 m (~0.75), respectively. The chapter also discusses the future implications by stating that including some dependent factors (such as the management practices used, soil health, pest management, and pollinators) could improve the relationship of RS-modelled crop yields with biodiversity. Lastly, chapter seven discusses testing the scope of new sensors such as unmanned aerial vehicles, hyperspectral sensors, or Sentinel-1 SAR in RS for achieving accurate crop yield predictions for precision farming. In addition, the chapter highlights the significance of artificial intelligence (AI) or deep learning (DL) in obtaining higher crop yield accuracies.
Earth Observation satellite data allows for the monitoring of the surface of our planet at predefined intervals covering large areas. However, there is only one medium resolution sensor family in orbit that enables an observation time span of 40 and more years at a daily repeat interval. This is the AVHRR sensor family. If we want to investigate the long-term impacts of climate change on our environment, we can only do so based on data that remains available for several decades. If we then want to investigate processes with respect to climate change, we need very high temporal resolution enabling the generation of long-term time series and the derivation of related statistical parameters such as mean, variability, anomalies, and trends. The challenges to generating a well calibrated and harmonized 40-year-long time series based on AVHRR sensor data flown on 14 different platforms are enormous. However, only extremely thorough pre-processing and harmonization ensures that trends found in the data are real trends and not sensor-related (or other) artefacts. The generation of European-wide time series as a basis for the derivation of a multitude of parameters is therefore an extremely challenging task, the details of which are presented in this paper.
Cropping Intensity in the Aral Sea Basin and Its Dependency from the Runoff Formation 2000–2012
(2016)
This study is aimed at a better understanding of how upstream runoff formation affected the cropping intensity (CI: number of harvests) in the Aral Sea Basin (ASB) between 2000 and 2012. MODIS 250 m NDVI time series and knowledge-based pixel masking that included settlement layers and topography features enabled to map the irrigated cropland extent (iCE). Random forest models supported the classification of cropland vegetation phenology (CVP: winter/summer crops, double cropping, etc.). CI and the percentage of fallow cropland (PF) were derived from CVP. Spearman’s rho was selected for assessing the statistical relation of CI and PF to runoff formation in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya catchments per hydrological year. Validation in 12 reference sites using multi-annual Landsat-7 ETM+ images revealed an average overall accuracy of 0.85 for the iCE maps. MODIS maps overestimated that based on Landsat by an average factor of ~1.15 (MODIS iCE/Landsat iCE). Exceptional overestimations occurred in case of inaccurate settlement layers. The CVP and CI maps achieved overall accuracies of 0.91 and 0.96, respectively. The Amu Darya catchment disclosed significant positive (negative) relations between upstream runoff with CI (PF) and a high pressure on the river water resources in 2000–2012. Along the Syr Darya, reduced dependencies could be observed, which is potentially linked to the high number of water constructions in that catchment. Intensified double cropping after drought years occurred in Uzbekistan. However, a 10 km × 10 km grid of Spearman’s rho (CI and PF vs. upstream runoff) emphasized locations at different CI levels that are directly affected by runoff fluctuations in both river systems. The resulting maps may thus be supportive on the way to achieve long-term sustainability of crop production and to simultaneously protect the severely threatened environment in the ASB. The gained knowledge can be further used for investigating climatic impacts of irrigation in the region.
WUEMoCA is an operational scientific webmapping tool for the regional monitoring of land and water use efficiency in the irrigated croplands of the transboundary Aral Sea Basin that is shared by Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Afghanistan. Satellite data on land use, crop pro-duction and water consumption is integrated with hydrological and economic information to provide of a set indicators. The tool is useful for large-scale decisions on water distribution or land use, and may be seen as demonstrator for numerous applications in practice, that require independent area-wide spatial information.
The overarching goal of this research was to explore accurate methods of mapping irrigated crops, where digital cadastre information is unavailable: (a) Boundary separation by object-oriented image segmentation using very high spatial resolution (2.5–5 m) data was followed by (b) identification of crops and crop rotations by means of phenology, tasselled cap, and rule-based classification using high resolution (15–30 m) bi-temporal data. The extensive irrigated cotton production system of the Khorezm province in Uzbekistan, Central Asia, was selected as a study region. Image segmentation was carried out on pan-sharpened SPOT data. Varying combinations of segmentation parameters (shape, compactness, and color) were tested for optimized boundary separation. The resulting geometry was validated against polygons digitized from the data and cadastre maps, analysing similarity (size, shape) and congruence. The parameters shape and compactness were decisive for segmentation accuracy. Differences between crop phenologies were analyzed at field level using bi-temporal ASTER data. A rule set based on the tasselled cap indices greenness and brightness allowed for classifying crop rotations of cotton, winter-wheat and rice, resulting in an overall accuracy of 80 %. The proposed field-based crop classification method can be an important tool for use in water demand estimations, crop yield simulations, or economic models in agricultural systems similar to Khorezm.
Processes of the Earth’s surface occur at different scales of time and intensity. Climate in particular determines the activity and seasonal development of vegetation. These dynamics are predominantly driven by temperature in the humid mid-latitudes and by the availability of water in semi-arid regions. Human activities are a modifying parameter for many ecosystems and can become the prime force in well-developed regions with an intensively managed environment. Accounting for these dynamics, i.e. seasonal dynamics of ecosystems and short- to long-term changes in land-cover composition, requires multiple measurements in time. With respect to the characterization of the Earth surface and its transformation due to global warming and human-induced global change, there is a need for appropriate data and methods to determine the activity of vegetation and the change of land cover. Space-borne remote sensing is capable of monitoring the activity and development of vegetation as well as changes of the land surface. In many instances, satellite images are the only means to comprehensively assess the surface characteristics of large areas. A high temporal frequency of image acquisition, forming a time series of satellite data, can be employed for mapping the development of vegetation in space and time. Time series allow for detecting and assessing changes and multi-year transformation processes of high and low intensity, or even abrupt events such as fire and flooding. The operational processing of satellite data and automated information-extraction techniques are the basis for consistent and continuous long-term product generation. This provides the potential for directly using remote-sensing data and products for analyzing the land surface in relation to global warming and global change, including deforestation and land transformation. This study aims at the development of an advanced approach to time-series generation using data-quality indicators. A second goal focuses on the application of time series for automated land-cover classification and update, using fractional cover estimates to accommodate for the comparatively coarse spatial resolution. Requirements of this study are the robustness and high accuracy of the approaches as well as the full transferability to other regions and datasets. In this respect, the developments of this study form a methodological framework, which can be filled with appropriate modules for a specific sensor and application. In order to attain the first goal, time-series compilation, a stand-alone software application called TiSeG (Time Series Generator) has been developed. TiSeG evaluates the pixel-level quality indicators provided with each MODIS land product. It computes two important data-availability indicators, the number of invalid pixels and the maximum gap length. Both indices are visualized in time and space, indicating the feasibility of temporal interpolation. The level of desired data quality can be modified spatially and temporally to account for distinct environments in a larger study area and for seasonal differences. Pixels regarded as invalid are either masked or interpolated with spatial or temporal techniques.
Rice is an important food crop and a large producer of green-house relevant methane. Accurate and timely maps of paddy fields are most important in the context of food security and greenhouse gas emission modelling. During their life-cycle, rice plants undergo a phenological development that influences their interaction with waves in the visible light and infrared spectrum. Rice growth has a distinctive signature in time series of remotely-sensed data. We used time series of MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) products MOD13Q1 and MYD13Q1 and a one-class support vector machine to detect these signatures and classify paddy rice areas in continental China. Based on these classifications, we present a novel product for continental China that shows rice areas for the years 2002, 2005, 2010 and 2014 at 250-m resolution. Our classification has an overall accuracy of 0.90 and a kappa coefficient of 0.77 compared to our own reference dataset for 2014 and correlates highly with rice area statistics from China’s Statistical Yearbooks (R2 of 0.92 for 2010, 0.92 for 2005 and 0.90 for 2002). Moderate resolution time series analysis allows accurate and timely mapping of rice paddies over large areas with diverse cropping schemes.
Availability of water and desiccation of important water reservoirs is a vital challenge in semi-arid to arid climates with growing economy and population. Low quantities of precipitation and high evaporation rates leave the water supply vulnerable to human activity and climatic variations. Endorheic basins of Northern Iran were hydrologically landlocked within geological timescales and thus bear evidence of past variations of water resources in generations of water related landforms, like abandoned lake level shorelines, alluvial fans and stream terraces. Understanding the development of these landforms reveals crucial information about past water reservoirs and landscape history.
This study offers a comprehensive approach on understanding the geomorphological development of the landscape throughout Late Pleistocene and Holocene times. It integrates remote sensing and geographic information system analysis, with geomorphological and stratigraphical mapping fieldwork and detailed sedimentological investigations.
The work shows the importance of analytical geomorphological mapping for delineating stratigraphic units of the Iranian Quaternary. Thus, several phases of drying and lake level retreat were identified in parallel geoarchives and could be dated to a time span from today to Late Pleistocene. The findings link the fate of the citizens of the ancient city of "Tepe Hissar" to their access to water and to the power of geomorphological processes, which started changing their environment.
Snow cover (SC) and timing of snowmelt are key regulators of a wide range of Arctic ecosystem functions. Both are strongly influenced by the amplified Arctic warming and essential variables to understand environmental changes and their dynamics. This study evaluates the potential of Sentinel-1 (S-1) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) time series for monitoring SC depletion and snowmelt with high spatiotemporal resolution to capture their understudied small-scale heterogeneity. We use 97 dual-polarized S-1 SAR images acquired over northeastern Greenland and 94 over southwestern Greenland in the interferometric wide swath mode from the years 2017 and 2018. Comparison of S-1 intensity against SC fraction maps derived from orthorectified terrestrial time-lapse imagery indicates that SAR backscatter can increase before a decrease in SC fraction is observed. Hence, the increase in backscatter is related to changing snowpack properties during the runoff phase as well as decreasing SC fraction. We here present a novel empirical approach based on the temporal evolution of the SAR signal to identify start of runoff (SOR), end of snow cover (EOS) and SC extent for each S-1 observation date during melt using backscatter thresholds as well as the derivative. Comparison of SC with orthorectified time-lapse imagery indicates that HV polarization outperforms HH when using a global threshold. The derivative avoids manual selection of thresholds and adapts to different environmental settings and seasonal conditions. With a global configuration (threshold: 4 dB; polarization: HV) as well as with the derivative, the overall accuracy of SC maps was in all cases above 75 % and in more than half of cases above 90 %. Based on the physical principle of SAR backscatter during snowmelt, our approach is expected to work well in other low-vegetation areas and, hence, could support large-scale SC monitoring at high spatiotemporal resolution (20 m, 6 d) with high accuracy.
Surveys by the Universities of Wuerzburg and Berlin, starting in the 1970´s have revealed the existence of palaeolakes in remote areas in Niger. Initial research has shown that the sediments found are suitable for reconstructing its late quaternary palaeoenvironment. Although a high number of investigations focused on the succession of climatological conditions in the Central Sahara, some uncertainties still exist as the results show discontinuities and mostly are of low temporal and spatial
resolution.
Two expeditions in 2005 and 2006 headed to the northeastern parts of Niger to investigate the known remains of palaeolakes and search some new and undetected ones. Samples were taken at several study sites in order to receive a complete picture of the Late Quaternary environmental settings and to produce high-resolution proxies for palaeoclimate modelling.
The most valuable and best-investigated study site is the sebkha of Seggedim, where a core of 15 meters length could be extracted which revealed a composition of high-resolution sections. Stratigraphical, structural and geochemical investigations as well as the analysis of thin sections allow the characterization of different environmental conditions from Early to Mid Holocene. Driven by climate and hydrogeological influence, the water body developed from a water pond of several metres depth within a stable, grass and shrub vegetated landscape, to an alternating freshwater lake in a more dynamic environmental setting. Radiocarbon dates set the beginning of the stage at about 10.6 ka cal BP, with an exceptionally stable regime to 6.6 ka cal BP (at 12.6 metres’ depth), when a major change in the sedimentation regime of the basin is recorded in the core. Increased erosion, likely due to decreased vegetation cover within the basin, led to the siltation/filling of the lake within a few hundred years and the subsequent development of a sebkha/salt pan due to massive evaporation. Due to the lack of dateable material in the upper core section, the termination of the lake stage and the onset of the subsequent sebkha stage cannot be determined precisely but can be narrowed to a period around 6 ka BP.
The results obtained from the core are compared with those from terrestrial and lacustrine sediments from outside the depression, situated a few hundred kilometres further to the north. These supplementary study sites are required to validate the information obtained from the coring. Within the plateau landscape of Djado, Mangueni and Tchigai, two depressions and a valley containing lacustrine deposits, were investigated for palaeoenvironmental reconstruction. Depending on modifying local factors, these sediment archives were of shorter existence than IX the lake, but reveal additional information about the landscape dynamics from Early to Mid Holocene.
A damming situation within a small tributary at Enneri Achelouma led to lacustrine sedimentation conditions at Early Holocene in the upper reaches of the valley. The remnants of the lacustrine accumulations show distinct changes in the environmental conditions within the small catchment, as the archive immediately responded to local climate-induced changes of precipitation. Radiocarbon dating of the deposited sediments revealed ages from 8780 ± 260 cal a BP to 9480 ± 80 cal a BP.
The sites of Yoo Ango and Fabérgé show a completely different sedimentation milieu as they consist of basins within the foothills of the Tchigai. The study sites show increased catchment sizes, probably extending towards the Tchigai massif and are most likely influenced by groundwater charge. The widespread occurrence of wind shaped relicts and the limited amount of lacustrine remnants indicate a generally high aeolian activity in both areas. Only in wind sheltered spots, parts of the lacustrine sequences were preserved, that show ages spanning from Early to Mid Holocene (9440 ± 140 cal a BP – 6810 ±140 cal a BP) and give additional evidence of fires from pre-LGM periods. Although intensively weathered, all profiles indicate distinct changes in the sedimentation conditions by alternating geochemical values and the mineralogical composition.
The information obtained from the records investigated in this work confirms the heterogeneity of reconstructed environmental succession in the Central Sahara. The Mid Holocene rapid (within decades) and uniform development from more humid to extremely arid environmental conditions cannot be confirmed for the Central Sahara. In addition, a division of Early and Mid Holocene wet periods cannot be confirmed, either. Actually, the evidences obtained from the palaeoenvironmental reconstructions revealed major variations in the timing and extend of lacustrine and aeolian periods. Evidently, a transitional time has existed between 7 to 5 ka BP where alternating influences prevailed. This is indicated by the varying sedimentation conditions in the Seggedim depression as well as the evidence of soil properties on a fossil dune, with a time of deposition dated to 6200 ± 400 cal a BP and the removal of lacustrine Sediments at the Seeterrassental at Mid Holocene. In respect to provide a complete picture of landscape succession and to avoid misinterpretation, the investigation of several dissimilar spots within a designated study area is prerequisite for further investigations.
The main purpose of volcano-seismology concerns the qualitative and quantitative description of one or more unknown seismic source(s) located at some unknown depth beneath a volcano. Even if many different volcanoes show similar seismic signal characteristics, up to now it was not possible to find a standard seismic source model for volcanoes, as the double-couple in earthquake seismology. Volcanoes with a continuous activity, like Stromboli (Italy), represent for the volcano seismologist a perfect natural laboratory to address this question. This thesis treats the study of explosion-quakes and volcanic tremor recorded on Stromboli in a broadband frequency range, and discusses the location and the possible mechanisms of the seismic source(s). Seismic and infrasonic recordings of explosion-quake from Stromboli showed that the high-frequency phase propagates with a velocity of approximately 330 m/s. The seismic source can be explained as an explosion at the top of the magma column generated by rising gas bubbles. The seismic P-wave and the air-wave are both generated in the same point at the same time. The different path lengths and velocities for the seismic wave and the air-wave result in a difference in arrival times dt, that could be used to deduce the magma level and sound speed in the eruption column inside the conduit. Stations installed near the active crater reveal that infrasonic and seismic recordings of the short-period tremor (> 1 Hz) share the same spectral content and show similar energy fluctuations. Therefore, the short-period volcanic tremor at Stromboli originates from the continuous out-bursting of small gas bubbles in the upper part of the magmatic column. The spectrum of the long-period tremor recorded at Stromboli consists of three main peaks with periods at 4.8 s, 6 s and 10 s, and amplitudes varying with the regional meteorological situation. Hence, they are not generated by a close volcanic source but rather by ocean microseisms (OMS). The passage of a local cyclone seems to be the seismic source for spectral energy at 4.8 s and 10 s, which represent the Double Frequency and the Primary Frequency of the OMS, respectively. Concerning the 6 s peak, a cyclone near the British Isles could act as a seismic source. Seismic data from the first broadband array deployed on Stromboli showed surprisingly simple waveforms, indicating an initially contracting source mechanism. The analysis of particle motion and the application of seismic array techniques allowed the location of a seismic source in the shallow part of the volcano. Eruption parameters and seismic source characteristics of the April 5, 2003 Stromboli eruption have been estimated using different inversion approaches. The paroxysm was triggered by a shallow slow thrust-faulting dislocation event with a moment magnitude of Mw = 3.0 and possibly associated with a crack that formed previously by dike extrusion. At least one blow-out phase during the paroxysmal explosion could be identified from seismic signals with an equivalent moment magnitude of Mw = 3.7. It can be represented by a vertical linear vector dipole and two weaker horizontal linear dipoles in opposite direction, plus a vertical force. Seismic measurements performed during controlled and reproducible blow-out experiments with a gas volume entrapped in basaltic melt revealed the following: Monochromatic seismic signals suggest a blow-out in a more ductile regime, whereas broader frequency content indicates rupture in a more brittle environment. The longer the crucible, the weaker the seismic signals. An increase in pressure results in a stronger fragmentation, but not in a higher ejection velocity of the plug neither in a higher seismic amplitude. Even if the very long period observations like the tilt signal could not be simulated in the laboratory, the blow-out experiments simulate very well the short-period seismic signals recorded at Stromboli volcano.
Nearly a quarter of the Alpine area is covered by a dense network of large protected areas (LPAs) of the four categories national park(NP), biosphere reserve (BR), nature park and world natural heritage site (WNHS). From the time of early industrialization, the Alpine area has undergone a mixed and increasingly polarized demographic development between the poles of immigration and emigration. This article investigates the possible mutual impact of population development and the existence of LPAs. The research design includes a quantitative survey of all Alpine LPAs in terms of their population development and the structure of immigration in the first decade of the 21st century. This will be linked with qualitative expert interviews in four selected NPs. The overall results allow an interpretation of the statistical
correlations between type of LPA and migration.
On a daily basis, political decisions are made, often with their full extent of impact being unclear. Not seldom, the decisions and policy measures implemented result in direct or indirect unintended negative impacts, such as on the natural environment, which can vary in time, space, nature, and severity. To achieve a more sustainable world with equitable societies requires fundamental rethinking of our policymaking. It calls for informed decision making and a monitoring of political impact for which evidence-based knowledge is necessary. The most powerful tool to derive objective and systematic spatial information and, thus, add to transparent decisions is remote sensing (RS). This review analyses how spaceborne RS is used by the scientific community to provide evidence for the policymaking process. We reviewed 194 scientific publications from 2015 to 2020 and analysed them based on general insights (e.g., study area) and RS application-related information (e.g., RS data and products). Further, we classified the studies according to their degree of science–policy integration by determining their engagement with the political field and their potential contribution towards four stages of the policy cycle: problem identification/knowledge building, policy formulation, policy implementation, and policy monitoring and evaluation. Except for four studies, we found that studies had not directly involved or informed the policy field or policymaking process. Most studies contributed to the stage problem identification/knowledge building, followed by ex post policy impact assessment. To strengthen the use of RS for policy-relevant studies, the concept of the policy cycle is used to showcase opportunities of RS application for the policymaking process. Topics gaining importance and future requirements of RS at the science–policy interface are identified. If tackled, RS can be a powerful complement to provide policy-relevant evidence to shed light on the impact of political decisions and thus help promote sustainable development from the core.
The Antarctic Ice Sheet stores ~91% of the global ice volume which is equivalent to a sea-level rise of 58.3 meters. Recent disintegration events of ice shelves and retreating glaciers along the Antarctic Peninsula and West Antarctica indicate the current vulnerable state of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Glacier tongues and ice shelves create a safety band around Antarctica with buttressing effects on ice discharge. Current decreases in glacier and ice shelf extent reduce the effective buttressing forces and increase ice discharge of grounded ice. The consequence is a higher contribution to sea-level rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. So far, it is unresolved which proportion of Antarctic glacier retreat can be attributed to climate change and which part to the natural cycle of growth and decay in the lifetime of a glacier. The quantitative assessment of the magnitude, spatial extent, distribution, and dynamics of circum-Antarctic glacier and ice shelf retreat is of utmost importance to monitor Antarctica’s weakening safety band. In remote areas like Antarctica, earth observation provides optimal properties for large-scale mapping and monitoring of glaciers and ice shelves. Nowadays, the variety of available satellite sensors, technical advancements regarding spatial resolution and revisit times, as well as open satellite data archives create an ideal basis for monitoring calving front change. A systematic review conducted within this thesis revealed major gaps in the availability of glacier and ice shelf front position measurements despite the improved satellite data availability. The previously limited availability of satellite imagery and the time-consuming manual delineation of calving fronts did neither allow a circum-Antarctic assessment of glacier retreat nor the assessment of intra-annual changes in glacier front position. To advance the understanding of Antarctic glacier front change, this thesis presents a novel automated approach for calving front extraction and explores drivers of glacier retreat.
A comprehensive review of existing methods for glacier front extraction ascertained the lack of a fully automatic approach for large-scale monitoring of Antarctic calving fronts using radar imagery. Similar backscatter characteristics of different ice types, seasonally changing backscatter values, multi-year sea ice, and mélange made it challenging to implement an automated approach with traditional image processing techniques. Therefore, the present abundance of satellite data is best exploited by integrating recent developments in big data and artificial intelligence (AI) research to derive circum-Antarctic calving front dynamics. In the context of this thesis, the novel AI-based framework “AntarcticLINES” (Antarctic Glacier and Ice Shelf Front Time Series) was created which provides a fully automated processing chain for calving front extraction from Sentinel-1 imagery. Open access Sentinel-1 radar imagery is an ideal data source for monitoring current and future changes in the Antarctic coastline with revisit times of less than six days and all-weather imaging capabilities. The developed processing chain includes the pre-processing of dual-polarized Sentinel-1 imagery for machine learning applications. 38 Sentinel-1 scenes were used to train the deep learning architecture U-Net for image segmentation. The trained weights of the neural network can be used to segment Sentinel-1 scenes into land ice and ocean. Additional post-processing ensures even more accurate results by including morphological filtering before extracting the final coastline. A comprehensive accuracy assessment has proven the correct extraction of the coastline. On average, the automatically extracted coastline deviates by 2-3 pixels (93 m) from a manual delineation. This accuracy is in range with deviations between manually delineated coastlines from different experts.
For the first time, the fully automated framework AntarcticLINES enabled the extraction of intra-annual glacier front fluctuations to assess seasonal variations in calving front change. Thereby, for example, an increased calving frequency of Pine Island Glacier and a beginning disintegration of Glenzer Glacier were revealed. Besides, the extraction of the entire Antarctic coastline for 2018 highlighted the large-scale applicability of the developed approach. Accurate results for entire Antarctica were derived except for the Western Antarctic Peninsula where training imagery was not sufficient and should be included in future studies.
Furthermore, this dissertation presents an unprecedented record of circum-Antarctic calving front change over the last two decades. The newly extracted coastline for 2018 was compared to previous coastline products from 2009 and 1997. This revealed that the Antarctic Ice Sheet shrank 29,618±1193 km2 in extent between 1997-2008 and gained an area of 7,108±1029 km2 between 2009-2018. Glacier retreat concentrated along the Antarctic Peninsula and West Antarctica. The only East Antarctic coastal sector primarily experiencing calving front retreat was Wilkes Land in 2009-2018. Finally, potential drivers of circum-Antarctic glacier retreat were identified by combining data on glacier front change with changes in climate variables. It was found that strengthening westerlies, snowmelt, rising sea surface temperatures, and decreasing sea ice cover forced glacier retreat over the last two decades. Relative changes in mean air temperature could not be identified as a driver for glacier retreat and further investigations on extreme events in air temperature are necessary to assess the effect of atmospheric forcing on frontal retreat. The strengthening of all identified drivers was closely connected to positive phases of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). With increasing greenhouse gases and ozone depletion, positive phases of SAM will occur more often and force glacier retreat even further in the future.
Within this thesis, a comprehensive review on existing Antarctic glacier and ice shelf front studies was conducted revealing major gaps in Antarctic calving front records. Therefore, a fully automated processing chain for glacier and ice shelf front extraction was implemented to track circum-Antarctic calving front fluctuations on an intra-annual basis. The large-scale applicability was certified by presenting two decades of circum-Antarctic calving front change. In combination with climate variables, drivers of recent glacier retreat were identified. In the future, the presented framework AntarcticLINES will greatly contribute to the constant monitoring of the Antarctic coastline under the pressure of a changing climate.
Sea level rise contribution from the Antarctic ice sheet is influenced by changes in glacier and ice shelf front position. Still, little is known about seasonal glacier and ice shelf front fluctuations as the manual delineation of calving fronts from remote sensing imagery is very time-consuming. The major challenge of automatic calving front extraction is the low contrast between floating glacier and ice shelf fronts and the surrounding sea ice. Additionally, in previous decades, remote sensing imagery over the often cloud-covered Antarctic coastline was limited. Nowadays, an abundance of Sentinel-1 imagery over the Antarctic coastline exists and could be used for tracking glacier and ice shelf front movement. To exploit the available Sentinel-1 data, we developed a processing chain allowing automatic extraction of the Antarctic coastline from Seninel-1 imagery and the creation of dense time series to assess calving front change. The core of the proposed workflow is a modified version of the deep learning architecture U-Net. This convolutional neural network (CNN) performs a semantic segmentation on dual-pol Sentinel-1 data and the Antarctic TanDEM-X digital elevation model (DEM). The proposed method is tested for four training and test areas along the Antarctic coastline. The automatically extracted fronts deviate on average 78 m in training and 108 m test areas. Spatial and temporal transferability is demonstrated on an automatically extracted 15-month time series along the Getz Ice Shelf. Between May 2017 and July 2018, the fronts along the Getz Ice Shelf show mostly an advancing tendency with the fastest moving front of DeVicq Glacier with 726 ± 20 m/yr.
Glacier outlines during the ‘Little Ice Age’ maximum in Jotunheimen were mapped by using remote sensing techniques (vertical aerial photos and satellite imagery), glacier outlines from the 1980s and 2003, a digital terrain model (DTM), geomorphological maps of individual glaciers, and field-GPS measurements. The related inventory data (surface area, minimum and maximum altitude) and several other variables (e.g. slope, range) were calculated automatically by using a geographical information system. The length of the glacier flowline was mapped manually based on the glacier outlines at the maximum of the ‘Little Ice Age’ and the DTM. The glacier data during the maximum of the ‘Little Ice Age’ were compared with the Norwegian glacier inventory of 2003. Based on the glacier inventories during the maximum of the ‘Little Ice Age’, the 1980s and 2003, a simple parameterization after HAEBERLI & HOELZLE (1995) was performed to estimate unmeasured glacier variables, as e.g. surface velocity or mean net mass balance. Input data were composed of surface glacier area, minimum and maximum elevation, and glacier length. The results of the parameterization were compared with the results of previous parameterizations in the European Alps and the Southern Alps of New Zealand (HAEBERLI & HOELZLE 1995; HOELZLE et al. 2007). A relationship between these results of the inventories and of the parameterization and climate and climate changes was made.
Detailed information on the land cover types present and the horizontal position of the land–water interface is needed for sensitive coastal ecosystems throughout the Arctic, both to establish baselines against which the impacts of climate change can be assessed and to inform response operations in the event of environmental emergencies such as oil spills. Previous work has demonstrated potential for accurate classification via fusion of optical and SAR data, though what contribution either makes to model accuracy is not well established, nor is it clear what shorelines can be classified using optical or SAR data alone. In this research, we evaluate the relative value of quad pol RADARSAT-2 and Landsat 5 data for shoreline mapping by individually excluding both datasets from Random Forest models used to classify images acquired over Nunavut, Canada. In anticipation of the RADARSAT Constellation Mission (RCM), we also simulate and evaluate dual and compact polarimetric imagery for shoreline mapping. Results show that SAR data is needed for accurate discrimination of substrates as user’s and producer’s accuracies were 5–24% higher for models constructed with quad pol RADARSAT-2 and DEM data than models constructed with Landsat 5 and DEM data. Models based on simulated RCM and DEM data achieved significantly lower overall accuracies (71–77%) than models based on quad pol RADARSAT-2 and DEM data (80%), with Wetland and Tundra being most adversely affected. When classified together with Landsat 5 and DEM data, however, model accuracy was less affected by the SAR data type, with multiple polarizations and modes achieving independent overall accuracies within a range acceptable for operational mapping, at 89–91%. RCM is expected to contribute positively to ongoing efforts to monitor change and improve emergency preparedness throughout the Arctic.
Impacts of climate variability and change on Maize (\(Zea\) \(mays\)) production in tropical Africa
(2022)
Climate change is undeniable and constitutes one of the major threats of the 21st century. It impacts sectors of our society, usually negatively, and is likely to worsen towards the middle and end of the century. The agricultural sector is of particular concern, for it is the primary source of food and is strongly dependent on the weather. Considerable attention has been given to the impact of climate change on African agriculture because of the continent’s high vulnerability, which is mainly due to its low adaptation capac- ity. Several studies have been implemented to evaluate the impact of climate change on this continent. The results are sometimes controversial since the studies are based on different approaches, climate models and crop yield datasets. This study attempts to contribute substantially to this large topic by suggesting specific types of climate pre- dictors. The study focuses on tropical Africa and its maize yield. Maize is considered to be the most important crop in this region. To estimate the effect of climate change on maize yield, the study began by developing a robust cross-validated multiple linear regression model, which related climate predictors and maize yield. This statistical trans- fer function is reputed to be less prone to overfitting and multicollinearity problems. It is capable of selecting robust predictors, which have a physical meaning. Therefore, the study combined: large-scale predictors, which were derived from the principal component analysis of the monthly precipitation and temperature; traditional local-scale predictors, mainly, the mean precipitation, mean temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature; and the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI), derived from the specific crop (maize) water balance model. The projected maize-yield change is forced by a regional climate model (RCM) REMO under two emission scenarios: high emission scenario (RCP8.5) and mid-range emission scenario (RCP4.5). The different effects of these groups of predictors in projecting the future maize-yield changes were also assessed. Furthermore, the study analysed the impact of climate change on the global WRSI. The results indicate that almost 27 % of the interannual variability of maize production of the entire region is explained by climate variables. The influence of climate predictors on maize-yield production is more pronounced in West Africa, reaching 55 % in some areas. The model projection indicates that the maize yield in the entire region is expected to decrease by the middle of the century under an RCP8.5 emission scenario, and from the middle of the century to the end of the century, the production will slightly recover but will remain negative (around -10 %). However, in some regions of East Africa, a slight increase in maize yield is expected. The maize-yield projection under RCP4.5 remains relatively unchanged compared to the baseline period (1982-2016). The results further indicate that large-scale predictors are the most critical drivers of the global year-to-year maize-yield variability, and ENSO – which is highly correlated with the most important predictor (PC2) – seems to be the physical process underlying this variability. The effects of local predictors are more pronounced in the eastern parts of the region. The impact of the future climate change on WRSI reveals that the availability of maize water is expected to decrease everywhere, except in some parts of eastern Africa.
The worldwide demand for food has been increasing due to the rapidly growing global population, and agricultural lands have increased in extent to produce more food crops. The pattern of cropland varies among different regions depending on the traditional knowledge of farmers and availability of uncultivated land. Satellite images can be used to map cropland in open areas but have limitations for detecting undergrowth inside forests. Classification results are often biased and need to be supplemented with field observations. Undercover cropland inside forests in the Bale Mountains of Ethiopia was assessed using field observed percentage cover of land use/land cover classes, and topographic and location parameters. The most influential factors were identified using Boosted Regression Trees and used to map undercover cropland area. Elevation, slope, easterly aspect, distance to settlements, and distance to national park were found to be the most influential factors determining undercover cropland area. When there is very high demand for growing food crops, constrained under restricted rights for clearing forest, cultivation could take place within forests as an undercover. Further research on the impact of undercover cropland on ecosystem services and challenges in sustainable management is thus essential.
Via providing various ecosystem services, the old-growth Hyrcanian forests play a crucial role in the environment and anthropogenic aspects of Iran and beyond. The amount of growing stock volume (GSV) is a forest biophysical parameter with great importance in issues like economy, environmental protection, and adaptation to climate change. Thus, accurate and unbiased estimation of GSV is also crucial to be pursued across the Hyrcanian. Our goal was to investigate the potential of ALOS-2 and Sentinel-1's polarimetric features in combination with Sentinel-2 multi-spectral features for the GSV estimation in a portion of heterogeneously-structured and mountainous Hyrcanian forests. We used five different kernels by the support vector regression (nu-SVR) for the GSV estimation. Because each kernel differently models the parameters, we separately selected features for each kernel by a binary genetic algorithm (GA). We simultaneously optimized R\(^2\) and RMSE in a suggested GA fitness function. We calculated R\(^2\), RMSE to evaluate the models. We additionally calculated the standard deviation of validation metrics to estimate the model's stability. Also for models over-fitting or under-fitting analysis, we used mean difference (MD) index. The results suggested the use of polynomial kernel as the final model. Despite multiple methodical challenges raised from the composition and structure of the study site, we conclude that the combined use of polarimetric features (both dual and full) with spectral bands and indices can improve the GSV estimation over mixed broadleaf forests. This was partially supported by the use of proposed evaluation criterion within the GA, which helped to avoid the curse of dimensionality for the applied SVR and lowest over estimation or under estimation.
Robust risk assessment requires accurate flood intensity area mapping to allow for the identification of populations and elements at risk. However, available flood maps in West Africa lack spatial variability while global datasets have resolutions too coarse to be relevant for local scale risk assessment. Consequently, local disaster managers are forced to use traditional methods such as watermarks on buildings and media reports to identify flood hazard areas. In this study, remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques were combined with hydrological and statistical models to delineate the spatial limits of flood hazard zones in selected communities in Ghana, Burkina Faso and Benin. The approach involves estimating peak runoff concentrations at different elevations and then applying statistical methods to develop a Flood Hazard Index (FHI). Results show that about half of the study areas fall into high intensity flood zones. Empirical validation using statistical confusion matrix and the principles of Participatory GIS show that flood hazard areas could be mapped at an accuracy ranging from 77% to 81%. This was supported with local expert knowledge which accurately classified 79% of communities deemed to be highly susceptible to flood hazard. The results will assist disaster managers to reduce the risk to flood disasters at the community level where risk outcomes are first materialized.
Nationwide and consistent information on agricultural land use forms an important basis for sustainable land management maintaining food security, (agro)biodiversity, and soil fertility, especially as German agriculture has shown high vulnerability to climate change. Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 satellite data of the Copernicus program offer time series with temporal, spatial, radiometric, and spectral characteristics that have great potential for mapping and monitoring agricultural crops. This paper presents an approach which synergistically uses these multispectral and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) time series for the classification of 17 crop classes at 10 m spatial resolution for Germany in the year 2018. Input data for the Random Forest (RF) classification are monthly statistics of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 time series. This approach reduces the amount of input data and pre-processing steps while retaining phenological information, which is crucial for crop type discrimination. For training and validation, Land Parcel Identification System (LPIS) data were available covering 15 of the 16 German Federal States. An overall map accuracy of 75.5% was achieved, with class-specific F1-scores above 80% for winter wheat, maize, sugar beet, and rapeseed. By combining optical and SAR data, overall accuracies could be increased by 6% and 9%, respectively, compared to single sensor approaches. While no increase in overall accuracy could be achieved by stratifying the classification in natural landscape regions, the class-wise accuracies for all but the cereal classes could be improved, on average, by 7%. In comparison to census data, the crop areas could be approximated well with, on average, only 1% of deviation in class-specific acreages. Using this streamlined approach, similar accuracies for the most widespread crop types as well as for smaller permanent crop classes were reached as in other Germany-wide crop type studies, indicating its potential for repeated nationwide crop type mapping.
Information on the state of the terrestrial vegetation cover is important for several ecological, economical, and planning issues. In this regard, vegetation properties such as the type, vitality, or density can be described by means of continuous biophysical parameters. One of these parameters is the leaf area index (LAI), which is defined as half the total leaf area per unit ground surface area. As leaves constitute the interface between the biosphere and the atmosphere, the LAI is used to model exchange processes between plants and their environment. However, to account for the variability of ecosystems, spatially and temporally explicit information on LAI is needed both for monitoring and modeling applications.
Remote sensing aims at providing such information. LAI is commonly derived from remote sensing data by empirical-statistical or physical models. In the first approach, an empirical relationship between LAI measured in situ and the corresponding canopy spectral signature is established. Although this method achieves accurate LAI estimates, these relationships are only valid for the place and time at which the field data were sampled, which hampers automated LAI derivation. The physical approach uses a radiation transfer model to simulate canopy reflectance as a function of the scene’s geometry and of leaf and canopy parameters, from which LAI is derived through model inversion based on remote sensing data. However, this model inversion is not stable, as it is an under-determined and ill-posed problem.
Until now, LAI research focused either on the use of coarse resolution remote sensing data for global applications, or on LAI modeling over a confined area, mostly in forest and crop ecosystems, using medium to high spatial resolution data. This is why to date no study is available in which high spatial resolution data are used for LAI mapping in a heterogeneous, natural landscape such as alpine grasslands, although a growing amount of high spatial and temporal resolution remote sensing data would allow for an improved environmental monitoring. Therefore, issues related to model parameterization and inversion regularization techniques improving its stability have not yet been investigated for this ecosystem.
This research gap was taken up by this thesis, in which the potential of high spatial resolution remote sensing data for grassland LAI estimation based on statistical and radiation transfer modeling is analyzed, and the achieved accuracy and robustness of the two approaches is compared. The objectives were an ecosystem-adapted radiation transfer model set-up and an optimized LAI derivation in mountainous grassland areas. Multi-temporal LAI in situ measurements as well as time series of RapidEye data from 2011 and 2012 over the catchment of the River Ammer in the Bavarian alpine upland were used. In order to obtain accurate in situ data, a comparison of the LAI derivation algorithms implemented in the LAI-2000 PCA instrument with destructively measured LAI was performed first. For optimizing the empirical-statistical approach, it was then analyzed how the selection of vegetation indices and regression models impacts LAI modeling, and how well these models can be transferred to other dates. It was shown that LAI can be derived
with a mean accuracy of 80 % using contemporaneous field data, but that the accuracy decreases to on average 51 % when using these models on remote sensing data from other dates. The combined use of several data sets to create a regression which is used for LAI derivation at different points in time increased the LAI estimation accuracy to on average 65 %. Thus, reduced field measurement labor comes at the cost of LAI error rates being increased by 10 - 30 % as long as at least two campaigns are conducted. Further, it was shown that the use of RapidEye’s red edge channel improves the LAI derivation by on average 5.4 %.
With regard to physical LAI modeling, special interest lay in assessing the accuracy improvements that can be achieved through model set-up and inversion regularization techniques. First, a global sensitivity analysis was applied to the radiation transfer model in order to identify the most important model parameters and most sensitive spectral features. After model parameterization, several inversion regularizations, namely the use of a multiple sample solution, the additional use of vegetation indices, and the addition of noise, were analyzed. Further, an approach to include the local scene’s geometry in the retrieval process was introduced to account for the mountainous topography. LAI modeling accuracies of in average 70 % were achieved using the best combination of regularization techniques, which is in the upper range of accuracies that were achieved in the few existing other grassland studies based on in situ or air-borne measured hyperspectral data. Finally, further physically derived vegetation parameters and inversion uncertainty measures were evaluated in detail to identify challenging modeling conditions, which was mostly neglected in other studies. An increased modeling uncertainty for extremely high and low LAI values was observed. This indicates an insufficiently wide model parameterization and a canopy deviation from model assumptions on some fields. Further, the LAI modeling accuracies varied strongly between the different scenes. From this observation it can be deduced that the radiometric quality of the remote sensing data, which might be reduced by atmospheric effects or unexpected surface reflectances, exerts a high influence on the LAI modeling accuracy.
The major findings of the comparison between the empirical-statistical and physical LAI modeling approaches are the higher accuracies achieved by the empirical-statistical approach as long as contemporaneous field data are available, and the computationally efficiency of the statistical approach. However, when no or temporally unfitting in situ measurements are available, the physical approach achieves comparable or even higher accuracies. Furthermore, radiation transfer modeling enables the derivation of other leaf and canopy variables useful for ecological monitoring and modeling applications, as well as of pixel-wise uncertainty measures indicating the robustness and reliability of the model inversion and LAI derivation procedure. The established look-up tables can be used for further LAI derivation in Central European grassland also in other years.
The use of high spatial resolution remote sensing data for LAI derivation enables a reliable land cover classification and thus a reduced LAI mapping error due to misclassifications. Furthermore, the RapidEye pixels being smaller than individual fields allow for a radiation transfer model inversion over homogeneous canopies in most cases, as canopy gaps or field parcels can be clearly distinguished. However, in case of unexpected local surface conditions such as blooming, litter, or canopy gaps, high spatial resolution data show corresponding strong deviations in reflectance values and hence LAI estimation, which would be reduced using coarser resolution data through the balancing effect of the surrounding surface reflectances. An optimal pixel size with regard to modeling accuracy hence depends on the canopy and landscape structure. Furthermore, a reduced spatial resolution would enable a considerable acceleration of the LAI map derivation.
This illustration of the potential of RapidEye data and of the challenges associated to LAI derivation in heterogeneous grassland areas contributes to the development of robust LAI estimation procedures based on new and upcoming, spatially and temporally high resolution remote sensing imagery such as Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2.
Nature-based tourism and ecotourism experienced a dynamic development over the past decade. While originally often described as specialized post-Fordist niche markets for ecologically aware and affluent target groups, in many regions they are nowadays characterized by a heterogeneous structure and the presence of a wide product range, from individual travels to package tours.
The present dissertation analyzes the structure and economic importance of tourism in two highly frequented protected areas in middle income countries, the Sian Ka’an Biosphere Reserve (SKBR) in Mexico and the Souss-Massa National Park (SMNP) in Morocco. Both areas are situated in close proximity to the most important package tour destinations Cancún (Mexico) and Agadir (Morocco) and are subject to high touristic use and development pressure. So far, the planning of a more sustainable tourism development is hampered by the lack of reliable data.
Based on demand-side surveys and income multipliers calculated with the help of regionalized input-output models, the visitor structure and economic impact of tourism in both protected areas are described. With regional income effects of approximately 1 million USD (SKBR) and approximately 1.9 million USD (SMNP), and resulting income equivalents of 1,348 and 5,218 persons, both the SKBR and the SMNP play an important—and often undervalued—role for the regional economies in underdeveloped rural peripheral regions of the countries.
Detailed analyses of the visitor structures show marked differences with regard to criteria such as travel organization, nature/protected area affinity and expenditures. With regard to planning and marketing of nature-based tourism, protected area managers and political decision-takers are advised to focus on ecologically and economically attractive visitor groups. Based on the results of the two case studies as well as existing tourism typologies from the literature, a classification scheme is presented that may be used for a more target-oriented development and marketing of nature-based tourism products.
Numerous ephemeral rivers and thousands of natural pans characterize the transboundary Iishana-System of the Cuvelai Basin between Namibia and Angola. After the rainy season, surface water stored in pans is often the only affordable water source for many people in rural areas. High inter- and intra-annual rainfall variations in this semiarid environment provoke years of extreme flood events and long periods of droughts. Thus, the issue of water availability is playing an increasingly important role in one of the most densely populated and fastest growing regions in southwestern Africa. Currently, there is no transnational approach to quantifying the potential storage and supply functions of the Iishana-System. To bridge these knowledge gaps and to increase the resilience of the local people's livelihood, suitable pans for expansion as intermediate storage were identified and their metrics determined. Therefore, a modified Blue Spot Analysis was performed, based on the high-resolution TanDEM-X digital elevation model. Further, surface area–volume ratio calculations were accomplished for finding suitable augmentation sites in a first step. The potential water storage volume of more than 190,000 pans was calculated at 1.9 km\(^3\). Over 2200 pans were identified for potential expansion to facilitate increased water supply and flood protection in the future.
The taphonomic and paleoecologic aspects of the Upper Hauterivian to Lower Barremian Agua de la Mula Member of the Agrio Formation (Neuquén Basin, Argentina) were studied in the frame of the sequence stratigraphic paradigm. The Agua de la Mula Member, a ca. 600 m thick succession of highly cyclic marine sediments was surveyed at two localities. Detailed bed-by-bed sedimentologic, stratigraphic, ichnologic, taphonomic and paleoecologic data collection allowed a precise paleoenvironmental, stratigraphic, taphonomic and synecologic interpretation, in a controlled sequence stratigraphic framework. The main architectural stratigraphic component is the Starvation-Dilution Sequence, interpreted as a the effect of a sixth-order, Milankovitch precession-driven cycle. Dilution hemisequences are siliciclastic-dominated and show evidence of depth changes. Starvation hemisequences show a diverse variation of mixed carbonate-siliciclastic facies that is linked to sequence stratigraphy. Ammonite-based biostratigraphy was revised and new knowledge proposed. The stratigraphic framework was improved by combining biostratigraphy, sequence stratigraphy and event stratigraphy. Nine main sequences were described, linked to other stratigraphic markers and correlated with other sequence stratigraphic charts. Several orders of cyclicity were inferred. Third- and fourth-order sequences are the major sequences, not subordinated to higher hierarchies (lower order). Precession, obliquity, and short and long eccentricity cycles of the Milankovitch band are proposed. Among the different sequence stratigraphic models the transgression-regression model fits the majority of the sequences described in this work. The depositional-sequence model could be applied only to the first third-order sequence, in which the true sequence boundary is identifiable. Starvation-dilution sequences, however, are composed by to components that are not completely explained by those models. Starvation hemisequences developed in intermediate to deep settings record the transgressive phase as well as the earLy regressive one without visible stratigraphic boundaries. 112 samples with 22,572 individuals were grouped into fifteen fossil associations and one assemblage that reflect the interaction of different factors: age, position in major, medium and starvation dilution sequences and, linked to sequence stratigraphy, depth, oxygen availability, rate of terrigenous input, water agitation, and substrate conditions. Temporary possible reduction in oxygen content is inferred based on all sources of available evidence. Organic buildups are briefly described and their development interpreted in terms of the sequence stratigraphic framework. Vertical patterns of replacement of fossil associations are described and related to sequence stratigraphy. Five types of skeletal concentrations represent the diversity of coquinas decribed in this study. Type 1, 2, 4 and 5 correspond to starvation hemisequences deposited in progressively shallower settings, from basin to inner ramp. Type 3 is embedded into dilution hemisequences and inferred to be linked to shell bed type I of Kidwell (1985). Types 1 and 2 correspond to transgression, maximum flooding and early regression without distinction. Type 4A as well as Type 5 are interpreted as onlap shell beds (Kidwell 1991a) or early TST shell beds (Fürsich and Pandey 2003). Type 4B corresponds to the MFZ shell bed (Fürsich and Pandey 2003) or mid-cycle shell bed (Abbott 1997), while Type 4C to the downlap shell bed (Kidwell 1991a). Time-averaging of shell beds was assessed with precision as the time involved in the deposition of the starvation hemisequences could be inferred. All shell beds comprise within-habitat assemblages forming within a few thousand years, with little environmental condensation. The fossilization of the marine calcareous shells is modelled as a series of steps called windows: environmental, destructional, burial and diagenetic. The “diagenetic window” is the most relevant. Connected to this it is proposed that carbonate dissolution is the primary control on the development of shell beds, as has been proposed before (Fürsich 1982; Fürsich and Pandey 2003). The interpretative power resulting from combining several lines of evidence, e.g., facies analysis, sequence stratigraphy, biostratigraphy, trace fossil analysis, paleoecology and taphonomy, and unravelling their multiple relationships, are the most relevant conclusions of this study.
Strategies in Times of Pandemic Crisis — Retailers and Regional Resilience in Würzburg, Germany
(2021)
Research on the COVID-19 crisis and its implications on regional resilience is still in its infancy. To understand resilience on its aggregate level it is important to identify (non)resilient actions of individual actors who comprise regions. As the retail sector among others represents an important factor in an urban regions recovery, we focus on the resilience of (textile) retailers within the city of Würzburg in Germany to the COVID-19 pandemic. To address the identified research gap, this paper applies the concept of resilience. Firstly, conducting expert interviews, the individual (textile) retailers’ level and their strategies in coping with the crisis is considered. Secondly, conducting a contextual analysis of the German city of Würzburg, we wish to contribute to the discussion of how the resilience of a region is influenced inter alia by actors. Our study finds three main strategies on the individual level, with retailers: (1) intending to “bounce back” to a pre-crisis state, (2) reorganising existing practices, as well as (3) closing stores and winding up business. As at the time of research, no conclusions regarding long-term impacts and resilience are possible, the results are limited. Nevertheless, detailed analysis of retailers’ strategies contributes to a better understanding of regional resilience.
The Niger Delta belongs to the largest swamp and mangrove forests in the world hosting many endemic and endangered species. Therefore, its conservation should be of highest priority. However, the Niger Delta is confronted with overexploitation, deforestation and pollution to a large extent. In particular, oil spills threaten the biodiversity, ecosystem services, and local people. Remote sensing can support the detection of spills and their potential impact when accessibility on site is difficult. We tested different vegetation indices to assess the impact of oil spills on the land cover as well as to detect accumulations (hotspots) of oil spills. We further identified which species, land cover types, and protected areas could be threatened in the Niger Delta due to oil spills. The results showed that the Enhanced Vegetation Index, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, and the Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index were more sensitive to the effects of oil spills on different vegetation cover than other tested vegetation indices. Forest cover was the most affected land-cover type and oil spills also occurred in protected areas. Threatened species are inhabiting the Niger Delta Swamp Forest and the Central African Mangroves that were mainly affected by oil spills and, therefore, strong conservation measures are needed even though security issues hamper the monitoring and control.
The Urban Heat Island (UHI) is the phenomenon of altered increased temperatures in urban areas compared to their rural surroundings. UHIs grow and intensify under extreme hot periods, such as during heat waves, which can affect human health and also increase the demand for energy for cooling. This study applies remote sensing and land use/land cover (LULC) data to assess the cooling effect of varying urban vegetation cover, especially during extreme warm periods, in the city of Munich, Germany. To compute the relationship between Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Land Use Land Cover (LULC), MODIS eight-day interval LST data for the months of June, July and August from 2002 to 2012 and the Corine Land Cover (CLC) database were used. Due to similarities in the behavior of surface temperature of different CLCs, some classes were reclassified and combined to form two major, rather simplified, homogenized classes: one of built-up area and one of urban vegetation. The homogenized map was merged with the MODIS eight-day interval LST data to compute the relationship between them. The results revealed that (i) the cooling effect accrued from urban vegetation tended to be non-linear; and (ii) a remarkable and stronger cooling effect in terms of LST was identified in regions where the proportion of vegetation cover was between seventy and almost eighty percent per square kilometer. The results also demonstrated that LST within urban vegetation was affected by the temperature of the surrounding built-up and that during the well-known European 2003 heat wave, suburb areas were cooler from the core of the urbanized region. This study concluded that the optimum green space for obtaining the lowest temperature is a non-linear trend. This could support urban planning strategies to facilitate appropriate applications to mitigate heat-stress in urban area.
The Kunduz River is one of the main tributaries of the Amu Darya Basin in North Afghanistan. Many communities live in the Kunduz River Basin (KRB), and its water resources have been the basis of their livelihoods for many generations. This study investigates climate change impacts on the KRB catchment. Rare station data are, for the first time, used to analyze systematic trends in temperature, precipitation, and river discharge over the past few decades, while using Mann–Kendall and Theil–Sen trend statistics. The trends show that the hydrology of the basin changed significantly over the last decades. A comparison of landcover data of the river basin from 1992 and 2019 shows significant changes that have additional impact on the basin hydrology, which are used to interpret the trend analysis. There is considerable uncertainty due to the data scarcity and gaps in the data, but all results indicate a strong tendency towards drier conditions. An extreme warming trend, partly above 2 °C since the 1960s in combination with a dramatic precipitation decrease by more than −30% lead to a strong decrease in river discharge. The increasing glacier melt compensates the decreases and leads to an increase in runoff only in the highland parts of the upper catchment. The reduction of water availability and the additional stress on the land leads to a strong increase of barren land and a reduction of vegetation cover. The detected trends and changes in the basin hydrology demand an active management of the already scarce water resources in order to sustain water supply for agriculture and ecosystems in the KRB.
Past and the projected future climate change in Afghanistan has been analyzed systematically and differentiated with respect to its different climate regions to gain some first quantitative insights into Afghanistan’s vulnerability to ongoing and future climate changes. For this purpose, temperature, precipitation and five additional climate indices for extremes and agriculture assessments (heavy precipitation; spring precipitation; growing season length (GSL), the Heat Wave Magnitude Index (HWMI); and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)) from the reanalysis data were examined for their consistency to identify changes in the past (data since 1950). For future changes (up to the year 2100), the same parameters were extracted from an ensemble of 12 downscaled regional climate models (RCM) of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-South Asia simulations for low and high emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). In the past, the climatic changes were mainly characterized by a mean temperature increase above global level of 1.8 °C from 1950 to 2010; uncertainty with regard to reanalyzed rainfall data limited a thorough analysis of past changes. Climate models projected the temperature trend to accelerate in the future, depending strongly on the global carbon emissions (2006–2050 Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5/8.5: 1.7/2.3 °C; 2006–2099: 2.7/6.4 °C, respectively). Despite the high uncertainty with regard to precipitation projections, it became apparent that the increasing evapotranspiration is likely to exacerbate Afghanistan’s already existing water stress, including a very strong increase of frequency and magnitude of heat waves. Overall, the results show that in addition to the already extensive deficiency in adaptation to current climate conditions, the situation will be aggravated in the future, particularly in regard to water management and agriculture. Thus, the results of this study underline the importance of adequate adaptation to climate change in Afghanistan. This is even truer taking into account that GSL is projected to increase substantially by around 20 days on average until 2050, which might open the opportunity for extended agricultural husbandry or even additional harvests when water resources are properly managed.
Estimating penetration-related X-band InSAR elevation bias: a study over the Greenland ice sheet
(2019)
Accelerating melt on the Greenland ice sheet leads to dramatic changes at a global scale. Especially in the last decades, not only the monitoring, but also the quantification of these changes has gained considerably in importance. In this context, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) systems complement existing data sources by their capability to acquire 3D information at high spatial resolution over large areas independent of weather conditions and illumination. However, penetration of the SAR signals into the snow and ice surface leads to a bias in measured height, which has to be corrected to obtain accurate elevation data. Therefore, this study purposes an easy transferable pixel-based approach for X-band penetration-related elevation bias estimation based on single-pass interferometric coherence and backscatter intensity which was performed at two test sites on the Northern Greenland ice sheet. In particular, the penetration bias was estimated using a multiple linear regression model based on TanDEM-X InSAR data and IceBridge laser-altimeter measurements to correct TanDEM-X Digital Elevation Model (DEM) scenes. Validation efforts yielded good agreement between observations and estimations with a coefficient of determination of R\(^2\) = 68% and an RMSE of 0.68 m. Furthermore, the study demonstrates the benefits of X-band penetration bias estimation within the application context of ice sheet elevation change detection.