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The explosive expansion of the population of the Metropolitan Region of Curitiba raised a high increase in the demand for water resources and the uncontrolled settlement poses a large problem for the environment. The greatest menace to the water supply sources of this region is the urban occupation (invasion) into the areas that contain these resources. This occupation continues with its slow, silent, although progressive march, threatening precious and irreplaceable resources. From this background an area in the direct vicinity north-east of Curitiba has been studied. In this area a drinking water reservoir was constructed in the time that the study took place in the Iraí-basin. The Iraí-reservoir even though an area around the lake will be protected may be polluted by two tributaries which flow through more or less densely populated areas. In the study area on the same time wells have been constructed. To estimate what the impact may be from the possibly polluted reservoir on the aquifer a groundwater flow model has been constructed. On the same time to estimate the water balance and the spatial distribution of pollution vulnerability the hydrological model MODBIL has been used. Also other methods have been used to estimate the pollution vulnerability to make a comparison and because none of the methods takes every aspect into account. With the calibrated groundwater flow model for the situation before the construction of the Iraí-reservoir and after its construction, simple particle tracking transport models are constructed as scenarios how the water of the aquifer may be influenced.
The potential health risk posed by the endogenous formation of N-nitroso compounds (NOC) from nitrosation of dietary ureas, guanidines, amides, amino acids and amanes (primary, secondary and aromatic) was estimated according to the model:
Risk = ( daily intake of precursor] X (gastric concentration of nitrite ]n X [nitrosatability rate constant] X [cilrcinogenicity of derivative].
The daily intakes ofthese compound classes span five orders ofmagnitude (100 g/day amides, top; 1-10 mg/day secondary amines, ureas, bottom); the nitrosation rate constants span seven orders of magnitude (aryl amines, ureas, top; amides, secondary amines, bottom); and the carcinogenicity estimates span a 10 000-fold range from 'very strong' to 'virtually noncarcinogenic'. The resulting risk estimates likewise span an enormous range (nine orders of magnitude ): dietary ureas and aromatic amines combined with high nitrite concentration could pose as great a risk as the intake of preformed N-nitrosodimethylamine in the diet. In contrast, the risk posed by the in-vivo nitrosation of primary and secondary amines is probably negligible. The risk contributed by amides (including protein), guanidines and primary amino acids is intermediate between these two extremes.
Urban areas are population, culture and infrastructure concentration points. Electricity blackouts or interruptions of water supply severely affect people when happening unexpected and at large scale. Interruptions of such infrastructure supply services alone have the potential to trigger crises. But when happening in concert with or as a secondary effect of an earthquake, for example, the crisis situation is often aggravated. This is the case for any country, but it has been observed that even highly industrialised
countries face severe risks when their degree of acquired dependency on services of what is termed Critical Infrastructure results in even bigger losses when occurring unexpectedly in a setting that usually has high reliability of services.