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The worldwide demand for food has been increasing due to the rapidly growing global population, and agricultural lands have increased in extent to produce more food crops. The pattern of cropland varies among different regions depending on the traditional knowledge of farmers and availability of uncultivated land. Satellite images can be used to map cropland in open areas but have limitations for detecting undergrowth inside forests. Classification results are often biased and need to be supplemented with field observations. Undercover cropland inside forests in the Bale Mountains of Ethiopia was assessed using field observed percentage cover of land use/land cover classes, and topographic and location parameters. The most influential factors were identified using Boosted Regression Trees and used to map undercover cropland area. Elevation, slope, easterly aspect, distance to settlements, and distance to national park were found to be the most influential factors determining undercover cropland area. When there is very high demand for growing food crops, constrained under restricted rights for clearing forest, cultivation could take place within forests as an undercover. Further research on the impact of undercover cropland on ecosystem services and challenges in sustainable management is thus essential.
I. Timing is a crucial feature in organisms that live within a variable and changing environment. Complex mechanisms to measure time are wide-spread and were shown to exist in many taxa. These mechanisms are expected to provide fitness benefits by enabling organisms to anticipate environmental changes and adapt accordingly. However, very few studies have addressed the adaptive value of proper timing. The objective of this PhD-project was to investigate mechanisms and fitness consequences of timing decisions concerning colony phenology and foraging activity in the honey bee (Apis mellifera), a social insect species with a high degree of social organization and one of the most important pollinators of wild plants and crops. In chapter II, a study is presented that aimed to identify the consequences of disrupted synchrony between colony phenology and the local environment by manipulating the timing of brood onset after hibernation. In a follow-up experiment, the importance of environmental factors for the timing of brood onset was investigated to assess the potential of climate change to disrupt synchronization of colony phenology (Chapter III). Chapter IV aimed to prove for the first time that honey bees can use interval time-place learning to improve foraging activity in a variable environment. Chapter V investigates the fitness benefits of information exchange between nest mates via waggle dance communication about a resource environment that is heterogeneous in space and time.
II. In the study presented in chapter II, the importance of the timing of brood onset after hibernation as critical point in honey bee colony phenology in temperate zones was investigated. Honey bee colonies were overwintered at two climatically different sites. By translocating colonies from each site to the other in late winter, timing of brood onset was manipulated and consequently colony phenology was desynchronized with the local environment. Delaying colony phenology in respect to the local environment decreased the capability of colonies to exploit the abundant spring bloom. Early brood onset, on the other hand, increased the loads of the brood parasite Varroa destructor later in the season with negative impact on colony worker population size. This indicates a timing related trade-off and illustrates the importance of investigating effects of climate change on complex multi-trophic systems. It can be concluded that timing of brood onset in honey bees is an important fitness relevant step for colony phenology that is highly sensitive to climatic conditions in late winter. Further, phenology shifts and mismatches driven by climate change can have severe fitness consequences.
III. In chapter III, I assess the importance of the environmental factors ambient temperature and photoperiod as well as elapsed time on the timing of brood onset. Twenty-four hibernating honey bee colonies were placed into environmental chambers and allocated to different combinations of two temperature regimes and three different light regimes. Brood onset was identified non-invasively by tracking comb temperature within the winter cluster. The experiment revealed that ambient temperature plays a major role in the timing of brood onset, but the response of honey bee colonies to temperature increases is modified by photoperiod. Further, the data indicate the involvement of an internal clock. I conclude that the timing of brood onset is complex but probably highly susceptible to climate change and especially spells of warm weather in winter.
IV. In chapter IV, it was examined if honey bees are capable of interval time-place learning and if this ability improves foraging efficiency in a dynamic resource environment. In a field experiment with artificial feeders, foragers were able to learn time intervals and use this ability to anticipate time periods during which feeders were active. Further, interval time-place learning enabled foragers to increase nectar uptake rates. It was concluded that interval time-place learning can help honey bee foragers to adapt to the complex and variable temporal patterns of floral resource environments.
V. The study presented in chapter V identified the importance of the honey bee waggle dance communication for the spatiotemporal coordination of honey bee foraging activity in resource environments that can vary from day to day. Consequences of disrupting the instructional component of honey bee dance communication were investigated in eight temperate zone landscapes with different levels of spatiotemporal complexity. While nectar uptake of colonies was not affected, waggle dance communication significantly benefitted pollen harvest irrespective of landscape complexity. I suggest that this is explained by the fact that honey bees prefer to forage pollen in semi-natural habitats, which provide diverse resource species but are sparse and presumably hard to find in intensively managed agricultural landscapes. I conclude that waggle dance communication helps to ensure a sufficient and diverse pollen diet which is crucial for honey bee colony health.
VI. In my PhD-project, I could show that honey bee colonies are able to adapt their activities to a seasonally and daily changing environment, which affects resource uptake, colony development, colony health and ultimately colony fitness. Ongoing global change, however, puts timing in honey bee colonies at risk. Climate change has the potential to cause mismatches with the local resource environment. Intensivation of agricultural management with decreased resource diversity and short resource peaks in spring followed by distinctive gaps increases the probability of mismatches. Even the highly efficient foraging system of honey bees might not ensure a sufficiently diverse and healthy diet in such an environment. The global introduction of the parasitic mite V. destructor and the increased exposure to pesticides in intensively managed landscapes further degrades honey bee colony health. This might lead to reduced cognitive capabilities in workers and impact the communication and social organization in colonies, thereby undermining the ability of honey bee colonies to adapt to their environment.
The Urban Heat Island (UHI) is the phenomenon of altered increased temperatures in urban areas compared to their rural surroundings. UHIs grow and intensify under extreme hot periods, such as during heat waves, which can affect human health and also increase the demand for energy for cooling. This study applies remote sensing and land use/land cover (LULC) data to assess the cooling effect of varying urban vegetation cover, especially during extreme warm periods, in the city of Munich, Germany. To compute the relationship between Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Land Use Land Cover (LULC), MODIS eight-day interval LST data for the months of June, July and August from 2002 to 2012 and the Corine Land Cover (CLC) database were used. Due to similarities in the behavior of surface temperature of different CLCs, some classes were reclassified and combined to form two major, rather simplified, homogenized classes: one of built-up area and one of urban vegetation. The homogenized map was merged with the MODIS eight-day interval LST data to compute the relationship between them. The results revealed that (i) the cooling effect accrued from urban vegetation tended to be non-linear; and (ii) a remarkable and stronger cooling effect in terms of LST was identified in regions where the proportion of vegetation cover was between seventy and almost eighty percent per square kilometer. The results also demonstrated that LST within urban vegetation was affected by the temperature of the surrounding built-up and that during the well-known European 2003 heat wave, suburb areas were cooler from the core of the urbanized region. This study concluded that the optimum green space for obtaining the lowest temperature is a non-linear trend. This could support urban planning strategies to facilitate appropriate applications to mitigate heat-stress in urban area.
BACKGROUND: Climate change will probably alter the spread and transmission intensity of malaria in Africa. OBJECTIVES: In this study, we assessed potential changes in the malaria transmission via an integrated weather disease model.
METHODS: We simulated mosquito biting rates using the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM). The input data for the LMM were bias-corrected temperature and precipitation data from the regional model (REMO) on a 0.5 degrees latitude longitude grid. A Plasmodium falciparum infection model expands the LMM simulations to incorporate information on the infection rate among children. Malaria projections were carried out with this integrated weather disease model for 2001 to 2050 according to two climate scenarios that include the effect of anthropogenic land-use and land-cover changes on climate.
RESULTS: Model-based estimates for the present climate (1960 to 2000) are consistent with observed data for the spread of malaria in Africa. In the model domain, the regions where malaria is epidemic are located in the Sahel as well as in various highland territories. A decreased spread of malaria over most parts of tropical Africa is projected because of simulated increased surface temperatures and a significant reduction in annual rainfall. However, the likelihood of malaria epidemics is projected to increase in the southern part of the Sahel. In most of East Africa, the intensity of malaria transmission is expected to increase. Projections indicate that highland areas that were formerly unsuitable for malaria will become epidemic, whereas in the lower-altitude regions of the East African highlands, epidemic risk will decrease.
CONCLUSIONS: We project that climate changes driven by greenhouse-gas and land-use changes will significantly affect the spread of malaria in tropical Africa well before 2050. The geographic distribution of areas where malaria is epidemic might have to be significantly altered in the coming decades.
Central Europe experienced several droughts in the recent past, such as in the year 2018, which was characterized by extremely low rainfall rates and high temperatures, resulting in substantial agricultural yield losses. Time series of satellite earth observation data enable the characterization of past drought events over large temporal and spatial scales. Within this study, Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) (MOD13Q1) 250 m time series were investigated for the vegetation periods of 2000 to 2018. The spatial and temporal development of vegetation in 2018 was compared to other dry and hot years in Europe, like the drought year 2003. Temporal and spatial inter- and intra-annual patterns of EVI anomalies were analyzed for all of Germany and for its cropland, forest, and grassland areas individually. While vegetation development in spring 2018 was above average, the summer months of 2018 showed negative anomalies in a similar magnitude as in 2003, which was particularly apparent within grassland and cropland areas in Germany. In contrast, the year 2003 showed negative anomalies during the entire growing season. The spatial pattern of vegetation status in 2018 showed high regional variation, with north-eastern Germany mainly affected in June, north-western parts in July, and western Germany in August. The temporal pattern of satellite-derived EVI deviances within the study period 2000-2018 were in good agreement with crop yield statistics for Germany. The study shows that the EVI deviation of the summer months of 2018 were among the most extreme in the study period compared to other years. The spatial pattern and temporal development of vegetation condition between the drought years differ.
The 2007 flood in the Sahel: causes, characteristics and its presentation in the media and FEWS NET
(2012)
During the rainy season in 2007, reports about exceptional rains and floodings in the Sahel were published in the media, especially in August and September. Institutions and organizations like the World Food Programme (WFP) and FEWS NET put the events on the agenda and released alerts and requested help. The partly controversial picture was that most of the Sahel faced a crisis caused by widespread floodings. Our study shows that the rainy season in 2007 was exceptional with regard to rainfall amount and return periods. In many areas the event had a return period between 1 and 50 yr with high spatial heterogeneity, with the exception of the Upper Volta basin, which yielded return periods of up to 1200 yr. Despite the strong rainfall, the interpretation of satellite images show that the floods were mainly confined to lakes and river beds. However, the study also proves the difficulties in assessing the meteorological processes and the demarcation of flooded areas in satellite images without ground truthing. These facts and the somewhat vague and controversial reports in the media and FEWS NET demonstrate that it is crucial to thoroughly analyze such events at a regional and local scale involving the local population.
Temporal development of communities with a focus on insects, in time series of one to four decades
(2021)
Changes and development are fundamental principles in biocenoses and can affect a multitude of ecological processes. In insect communities phenological and density changes, changes in species richness and community composition, as well as interactions between those changes, are the most important macro processes. However, climate change and other factors like habitat degradation and loss alter these processes leading to shifts and general biodiversity declines. Even though knowledge about insect decline in central Europe increased during the last decades, there are significant knowledge gaps about the development of insect communities in certain habitats and taxa. For example, insect communities in small lentic as well as in forested habitats are under-sampled and reported to be less endangered than communities in other habitats. Furthermore, the changes within habitats and taxa are additionally influenced by certain traits, like host or feeding specialization. To disentangle these influences and to increase the knowledge about the general long-term development of insect communities, comprehensive long-term monitoring studies are needed. In addition, long-term effects of conservation strategies should also be evaluated on large time scales in order to be able to decide on a scientific base which strategies are effective in promoting possibly declining taxa. Hence, this thesis also tackles the effects of an integrative conservation strategy on wood dependent beetle and fungi, beside the development of water beetle and macro moth communities over multiple decades. In Chapter 2 I present a study on the development of water beetle communities (Dytiscidae, Haliplidae, Noteridae) in 33 water bodies in Southern Germany from 1991 to 2018. Time-standardized capture per waterbody was used during three periods: between 1991 and 1995, 2007 and 2008, and 2017 and 2018. Results showed annual declines in both species number (ca. -1%) and abundance (ca. -2%). In addition, community composition shifted over time in part due to changing pH values. Hence, the recorded changes during the 28-year study period partly reflect natural succession processes. However, since also moor-related beetle species decreased significantly, it is likely that water beetles in southern Germany are also threatened by non-successional factors, including desiccation, increased nitrogen input and/or mineralization, as well as the loss of specific habitats. The results suggest, that in small to midsize lentic waterbodies, current development should aim for constant creation of new water bodies and protection of moor waterbodies in order to protect water beetle communities on a landscape scale. In Chapter 3 I present an analysis of the development of nocturnal macro moth species richness, abundance and biomass over four decades in forests of southern Germany. Two local scale data sets featuring a coppiced oak forest as well as an oak high forest were analysed separately from a regional data set representing all forest types in the temperate zone of Central Europe. At the regional scale species richness, abundance and biomass showed annual declines of ca. 1 %, 1.3 % and 1.4 %, respectively. These declines were more pronounced in plant host specialists and in dark coloured species. In contrast, species richness increased by ca. 1.5 % annually in the coppiced forest, while no significant trends were found in the high forest. In contrast to past assumptions, insect decline apparently affects also hyper diverse insect groups in forests. Since host specialists and dark coloured species were affected more heavily by the decline than other groups, habitat loss and climate change seem to be potential drivers of the observed trends. However, the positive development of species richness in the coppiced oak forest indicates that maintaining complex and diverse forest ecosystems through active management might compensate for negative trends in biodiversity. Chapter 4 features a study specifically aiming to investigate the long-term effect of deadwood enrichment as an integrative conservation strategy on saproxylic beetles and fungi in a central European beech forest at a landscape scale. A before–after control–impact design, was used to compare assemblages and gamma diversities of saproxylic organisms (beetles and fungi) in strictly protected old-growth forest areas (reserves) and previously moderately and intensively managed forest areas. Forests were sampled one year before and a decade after starting a landscape-wide strategy of dead-wood enrichment. Ten years after the start of the dead-wood enrichment, neither gamma diversities of saproxylic organisms nor species composition of beetles did reflect the previous management types anymore. However, fungal species composition still mirrored the previous management gradient. The results demonstrated that intentional enrichment of dead wood at the landscape scale can effectively restore communities of saproxylic organisms and may thus be a suitable strategy in addition to permanent strict reserves in order to protect wood dependent organisms in Europe. In this thesis I showed, that in contrast to what was assumed and partly reported so far, also water beetles in lentic water bodies and macro moths in forests decreased in species richness, abundance and biomass during the last three to four decades. In line with earlier studies, especially dark coloured species and specialists decreased more than light-coloured species and generalists. The reasons for these declines could partly be attributed to natural processes and pollution and possibly to climate change. However, further studies, especially experimental ones, will be needed to achieve a better understanding of the reasons for insect decline. Furthermore, analyses of time series data should be interpreted cautiously especially if the number of sampling years is smaller than ten years. In addition, validation techniques such as left- and right- censoring and cross validation should be used in order to proof the robustness of the analyses. However, the lack of knowledge, we are still facing today, should not prevent scientists and practitioners from applying conservation measures. In order to prove the effectiveness of such measures, long-term monitoring is crucial. Such control of success is essential for evidence based and thus adapted conservation strategies of threatened organisms.
Specialization of plant-pollinator interactions increases with temperature at Mt. Kilimanjaro
(2020)
Aim: Species differ in their degree of specialization when interacting with other species, with significant consequences for the function and robustness of ecosystems. In order to better estimate such consequences, we need to improve our understanding of the spatial patterns and drivers of specialization in interaction networks.
Methods: Here, we used the extensive environmental gradient of Mt. Kilimanjaro (Tanzania, East Africa) to study patterns and drivers of specialization, and robustness of plant–pollinator interactions against simulated species extinction with standardized sampling methods. We studied specialization, network robustness and other network indices of 67 quantitative plant–pollinator networks consisting of 268 observational hours and 4,380 plant–pollinator interactions along a 3.4 km elevational gradient. Using path analysis, we tested whether resource availability, pollinator richness, visitation rates, temperature, and/or area explain average specialization in pollinator communities. We further linked pollinator specialization to different pollinator taxa, and species traits, that is, proboscis length, body size, and species elevational ranges.
Results: We found that specialization decreased with increasing elevation at different levels of biological organization. Among all variables, mean annual temperature was the best predictor of average specialization in pollinator communities. Specialization differed between pollinator taxa, but was not related to pollinator traits. Network robustness against simulated species extinctions of both plants and pollinators was lowest in the most specialized interaction networks, that is, in the lowlands.
Conclusions: Our study uncovers patterns in plant–pollinator specialization along elevational gradients. Mean annual temperature was closely linked to pollinator specialization. Energetic constraints, caused by short activity timeframes in cold highlands, may force ectothermic species to broaden their dietary spectrum. Alternatively or in addition, accelerated evolutionary rates might facilitate the establishment of specialization under warm climates. Despite the mechanisms behind the patterns have yet to be fully resolved, our data suggest that temperature shifts in the course of climate change may destabilize pollination networks by affecting network architecture.
Aim
Global warming is assumed to restructure mountain insect communities in space and time. Theory and observations along climate gradients predict that insect abundance and richness, especially of small‐bodied species, will increase with increasing temperature. However, the specific responses of single species to rising temperatures, such as spatial range shifts, also alter communities, calling for intensive monitoring of real‐world communities over time.
Location
German Alps and pre‐alpine forests in south‐east Germany.
Methods
We empirically examined the temporal and spatial change in wild bee communities and its drivers along two largely well‐protected elevational gradients (alpine grassland vs. pre‐alpine forest), each sampled twice within the last decade.
Results
We detected clear abundance‐based upward shifts in bee communities, particularly in cold‐adapted bumble bee species, demonstrating the speed with which mobile organisms can respond to climatic changes. Mean annual temperature was identified as the main driver of species richness in both regions. Accordingly, and in large overlap with expectations under climate warming, we detected an increase in bee richness and abundance, and an increase in small‐bodied species in low‐ and mid‐elevations along the grassland gradient. Community responses in the pre‐alpine forest gradient were only partly consistent with community responses in alpine grasslands.
Main Conclusion
In well‐protected temperate mountain regions, small‐bodied bees may initially profit from warming temperatures, by getting more abundant and diverse. Less severe warming, and differences in habitat openness along the forested gradient, however, might moderate species responses. Our study further highlights the utility of standardized abundance data for revealing rapid changes in bee communities over only one decade.
Projected climate changes for the 21st century may cause great uncertainties on the hydrology of a river basin. This study explored the impacts of climate change on the water balance and hydrological regime of the Jhelum River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Two downscaling methods (SDSM, Statistical Downscaling Model and LARS-WG, Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator), three Global Circulation Models (GCMs), and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for three future periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2090s) were used to assess the climate change impacts on flow regimes. The results exhibited that both downscaling methods suggested an increase in annual streamflow over the river basin. There is generally an increasing trend of winter and autumn discharge, whereas it is complicated for summer and spring to conclude if the trend is increasing or decreasing depending on the downscaling methods. Therefore, the uncertainty associated with the downscaling of climate simulation needs to consider, for the best estimate, the impact of climate change, with its uncertainty, on a particular basin. The study also resulted that water yield and evapotranspiration in the eastern part of the basin (sub-basins at high elevation) would be most affected by climate change. The outcomes of this study would be useful for providing guidance in water management and planning for the river basin under climate change.
Satellite-derived land surface temperature dynamics in the context of global change — a review
(2023)
Satellite-derived Land Surface Temperature (LST) dynamics have been increasingly used to study various geophysical processes. This review provides an extensive overview of the applications of LST in the context of global change. By filtering a selection of relevant keywords, a total of 164 articles from 14 international journals published during the last two decades were analyzed based on study location, research topic, applied sensor, spatio-temporal resolution and scale and employed analysis methods. It was revealed that China and the USA were the most studied countries and those that had the most first author affiliations. The most prominent research topic was the Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI), while the research topics related to climate change were underrepresented. MODIS was by far the most used sensor system, followed by Landsat. A relatively small number of studies analyzed LST dynamics on a global or continental scale. The extensive use of MODIS highly determined the study periods: A majority of the studies started around the year 2000 and thus had a study period shorter than 25 years. The following suggestions were made to increase the utilization of LST time series in climate research: The prolongation of the time series by, e.g., using AVHRR LST, the better representation of LST under clouds, the comparison of LST to traditional climate change measures, such as air temperature and reanalysis variables, and the extension of the validation to heterogenous sites.
Diese Dissertation präsentiert Ergebnisse regionaler Niederschlagsabschätzungen für Namibia bei anthropogen verstärktem Treibhauseffekt, die mit der Methode des Statistischen Downscaling erzielt wurden. Über statistische Transferfunktionen werden Beziehungen zwischen großskaliger atmosphärischer Zirkulation und Namibischen Sommerregen aufgestellt. Dazu werden in einer 30-jährigen Kalibrierungsperiode Hauptkomponenten von Geopotentiellen Höhen verschiedener atmosphärischer Niveaus (300, 500, 1000hPa) mit den Niederschlagsmonatssummen (November bis März) von 84 Namibischen Stationen durch multiple Regressionsanalysen verknüpft, die für jede Station oder alternativ für Gitternetzniederschlagsdaten berechnet werden. Nach der Verifikation der statistischen Zusammenhänge in einem unabhängigen Zeitraum werden Regressionsmodelle jener Stationen bzw. Gitterpunkte selektiert, die mit signifikanten Korrelationen von r>0.4 zwischen beobachteten und modellierten Werten ausreichende Qualität garantieren. Diese Modelle werden eingesetzt, um unter Verwendung simulierter ECHAM3-T42 und ECHAM4tr-T42 Geopotentialdaten den lokalen Niederschlag für die jeweiligen Treibhauseffekt-Szenarien abzuschätzen. Als zusätzliche Methode, um die großskalige atmosphärische Zirkulation mit lokalen Stationsdaten zu verknüpfen, werden kanonische Korrelationsanalysen durchgeführt. Unabhängig von der Verfahrensweise resultieren für Klimabedingungen dreifacher bzw. transient ansteigender CO2-Konzentrationen im Vergleich zu einem Referenzzeitraum (1961-90) zunehmende Niederschläge in den nördlichen und östlichen Teilen Namibias von Dezember bis Februar. In den südlichen und südwestlichen Regionen sind von November bis Januar geringe Abnahmen zu verzeichnen. Die Abschätzungen für März zeigen einen deutlichen Rückgang der Niederschläge in ganz Namibia. Diese Ergebnisse weisen auf eine intensivierte, akzentuiertere Regenzeit hin, auch wenn die Gesamtmenge der Niederschläge unter Bedingungen des anthropogen verstärkten Treibhauseffekts mehr oder weniger gleich bleibt. Daher ist es von besonderer Bedeutung, die Abschätzungen der Niederschlagsänderungen auf monatlicher Ebene durchzuführen. Weitere Untersuchungen beinhalten die Trennung thermischer und dynamischer Effekte in den zur Abschätzung herangezogenen ECHAM3 und ECHAM4 Zirkulationsdaten. Durch die globale Erwärmung kommt es zu einer Anhebung der Geopotentiellen Höhen der Treibhauseffekt-Szenarien. Durch die Korrektur des Uplifting-Prozesses werden dynamisch induzierte Auswirkungen auf das Niederschlagsgeschehen erfasst. Áus der Verwendung uplifting-korrigierter Geopotentialdaten als Prädiktoren in der Downscaling-Prozedur resultieren sowohl im positiven als auch negativen Bereich geringere Änderungsraten in den Abschätzungsergebnissen. Ohne Zweifel reagiert das Klimasystem auf den anthropogen verstärkten Treibhauseffekt. In Bezug auf zukünftige Namibische Sommerregen ist es von besonderer Bedeutung die Auswirkungen des Treibhauseffekts regional und temporal zu differenzieren.
Following natural disturbances, additional anthropogenic disturbance may alter community recovery by affecting the occurrences of species, functional groups, and evolutionary lineages. However, our understanding of whether rare, common, or dominant species, functional groups, or evolutionary lineages are most strongly affected by an additional disturbance, particularly across multiple taxa, is limited. Here, we used a generalized diversity concept based on Hill numbers to quantify the community differences of vascular plants, bryophytes, lichens, wood‐inhabiting fungi, saproxylic beetles, and birds in a storm‐disturbed, experimentally salvage logged forest. Communities of all investigated species groups showed dissimilarities between logged and unlogged plots. Most species groups showed no significant changes in dissimilarities between logged and unlogged plots over the first seven years of succession, indicating a lack of community recovery. In general, the dissimilarities of communities were mainly driven by rare species. Convergence of dissimilarities occurred more often than divergence during the early stages of succession for rare species, indicating a major role in driving decreasing taxonomic dissimilarities between logged and unlogged plots over time. Trends in species dissimilarities only partially match the trends in dissimilarities of functional groups and evolutionary lineages, with little significant changes in successional trajectories. Nevertheless, common and dominant species contributed to a convergence of dissimilarities over time in the case of the functional dissimilarities of wood‐inhabiting fungi. Our study shows that salvage logging following disturbances can alter successional trajectories in early stages of forest succession following natural disturbances. However, community changes over time may differ remarkably in different taxonomic groups and are best detected based on taxonomic, rather than functional or phylogenetic dissimilarities.
Plant communities in the European Alps are assumed to be highly affected by climate change, as the temperature rise in this region is above the global average. It is predicted that higher temperatures will lead to advanced snowmelt dates and that the number of extreme weather events will increase. The aims of this study were to determine the impacts of extreme climatic events on flower phenology and to assess whether those impacts differed between lower and higher altitudes. In 2010, an experiment simulating advanced and delayed snowmelt as well as a drought event was conducted along an altitudinal transect approximately every 250 m (600–2000 m above sea level) in the Berchtesgaden National Park, Germany. The study showed that flower phenology was strongly affected by altitude; however, there were few effects of the manipulative treatments on flowering. The effects of advanced snowmelt were significantly greater at higher than at lower sites, but no significant difference was found between both altitudinal bands for the other treatments. The response of flower phenology to temperature declined through the season and the length of flowering duration was not significantly influenced by treatments. The stronger effect of advanced snowmelt at higher altitudes may be a response to differences in treatment intensity across the gradient. Consequently, shifts in the date of snowmelt due to global warming may affect species more at higher than at lower altitudes, as changes may be more pronounced at higher altitudes. These data indicate a rather low risk of drought events on flowering phenology in the Bavarian Alps.
Physicians play an important role in adapting to and mitigating the adverse health effects of the unfolding climate and ecological crises. To fully harness this potential, future physicians need to acquire knowledge, values, skills, and leadership attributes to care for patients presenting with environmental change-related conditions and to initiate and propel transformative change in healthcare and other sectors of society including, but not limited to, the decarbonization of healthcare systems, the transition to renewable energies and the transformation of transport and food systems. Despite the potential of Planetary Health Education (PHE) to support medical students in becoming agents of change, best-practice examples of mainstreaming PHE in medical curricula remain scarce both in Germany and internationally. The process of revising and updating the Medical Licensing Regulations and the National Competency-based Catalog of Learning Objectives for Medical Education in Germany provided a window of opportunity to address this implementation challenge. In this article, we describe the development and content of national Planetary Health learning objectives for Germany. We anticipate that the learning objectives will stimulate the development and implementation of innovative Planetary Health teaching, learning and exam formats in medical schools and inform similar initiatives in other health professions. The availability of Planetary Health learning objectives in other countries will provide opportunities for cross-country and interdisciplinary exchange of experiences and validation of content, thus supporting the consolidation of Planetary Health learning objectives and the improvement of PHE for all health professionals globally.
Robust risk assessment requires accurate flood intensity area mapping to allow for the identification of populations and elements at risk. However, available flood maps in West Africa lack spatial variability while global datasets have resolutions too coarse to be relevant for local scale risk assessment. Consequently, local disaster managers are forced to use traditional methods such as watermarks on buildings and media reports to identify flood hazard areas. In this study, remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques were combined with hydrological and statistical models to delineate the spatial limits of flood hazard zones in selected communities in Ghana, Burkina Faso and Benin. The approach involves estimating peak runoff concentrations at different elevations and then applying statistical methods to develop a Flood Hazard Index (FHI). Results show that about half of the study areas fall into high intensity flood zones. Empirical validation using statistical confusion matrix and the principles of Participatory GIS show that flood hazard areas could be mapped at an accuracy ranging from 77% to 81%. This was supported with local expert knowledge which accurately classified 79% of communities deemed to be highly susceptible to flood hazard. The results will assist disaster managers to reduce the risk to flood disasters at the community level where risk outcomes are first materialized.
Klimawandelbedingte bzw. potenziell klimawandelbedingte Umweltmigration ist ein sehr komplexes und breites Feld. Es existiert eine Fülle von Studien, die sich in ihrer Herangehensweise unterscheiden, weshalb hier ein Systematisierungsvorschlag aufgezeigt wird. Mittels einer an den Richtlinien der Grounded Theory orientierten Analyse wurden Studien auf zentrale gemeinsame Kategorien hin untersucht und als Modell präsentiert. Dieses stellt jedoch kein abgeschlossenes System dar, sondern dient durch seine Offenheit als Gerüst, das mit Ergebnissen aus weiteren Fallstudien gefestigt werden kann.
Die Arbeit untersucht den Einfluss von Nichtregierungsorganisationen (NGOs)und Wissenschaftlicher Gemeinschaften auf Internationale Regime. Ausgehend vom Kooperationsproblem in einer anarchischen Staatenwelt wird der Leistungsbeitrag der beiden nichtstaatlichen Akteure auf das Zustandekommen von Kooperation analysiert und seine schwankende Rolle im Verlauf des Regimeprozesses untersucht. Das Fallbeispiel bildet dabei das internationale Klimaschutzregime, wobei der Untersuchungszeitraum von den ersten Anfängen der Thematisierung des Klimawandels bis hin zu der in Marrakesch erreichten Ausformulierung des Kyoto-Protokolls reicht.
The Kunduz River is one of the main tributaries of the Amu Darya Basin in North Afghanistan. Many communities live in the Kunduz River Basin (KRB), and its water resources have been the basis of their livelihoods for many generations. This study investigates climate change impacts on the KRB catchment. Rare station data are, for the first time, used to analyze systematic trends in temperature, precipitation, and river discharge over the past few decades, while using Mann–Kendall and Theil–Sen trend statistics. The trends show that the hydrology of the basin changed significantly over the last decades. A comparison of landcover data of the river basin from 1992 and 2019 shows significant changes that have additional impact on the basin hydrology, which are used to interpret the trend analysis. There is considerable uncertainty due to the data scarcity and gaps in the data, but all results indicate a strong tendency towards drier conditions. An extreme warming trend, partly above 2 °C since the 1960s in combination with a dramatic precipitation decrease by more than −30% lead to a strong decrease in river discharge. The increasing glacier melt compensates the decreases and leads to an increase in runoff only in the highland parts of the upper catchment. The reduction of water availability and the additional stress on the land leads to a strong increase of barren land and a reduction of vegetation cover. The detected trends and changes in the basin hydrology demand an active management of the already scarce water resources in order to sustain water supply for agriculture and ecosystems in the KRB.
Central Asia consists of the five former Soviet States Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, therefore comprising an area of similar to 4 Mio km(2). The continental climate is characterized by hot and dry summer months and cold winter seasons with most precipitation occurring as snowfall. Accordingly, freshwater supply is strongly depending on the amount of accumulated snow as well as the moment of its release after snowmelt. The aim of the presented study is to identify possible changes in snow cover characteristics, consisting of snow cover duration, onset and offset of snow cover season within the last 28 years. Relying on remotely sensed data originating from medium resolution imagers, these snow cover characteristics are extracted on a daily basis. The resolution of 500-1000 m allows for a subsequent analysis of changes on the scale of hydrological sub-catchments. Long-term changes are identified from this unique dataset, revealing an ongoing shift towards earlier snowmelt within the Central Asian Mountains. This shift can be observed in most upstream hydro catchments within Pamir and Tian Shan Mountains and it leads to a potential change of freshwater availability in the downstream regions, exerting additional pressure on the already tensed situation.