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Earlier flowering of winter oilseed rape compensates for higher pest pressure in warmer climates
(2023)
Global warming can increase insect pest pressure by enhancing reproductive rates. Whether this translates into yield losses depends on phenological synchronisation of pests with their host plants and natural enemies. Simultaneously, landscape composition may mitigate climate effects by shaping the resource availability for pests and their antagonists. Here, we study the combined effects of temperature and landscape composition on pest abundances, larval parasitism, crop damage and yield, while also considering crop phenology, to identify strategies for sustainable management of oilseed rape (OSR) pests under warming climates.
In all, 29 winter OSR crop fields were investigated in different climates (defined by multi‐annual mean temperature, MAT) and landscape contexts in Bavaria, Germany. We measured abundances of adult pollen beetles and stem weevil larvae, pollen beetle larval parasitism, bud loss, stem damage and seed yield, and calculated the flowering date from growth stage observations. Landscape parameters (proportion of non‐crop and OSR area, change in OSR area relative to the previous year) were calculated at six spatial scales (0.6–5 km).
Pollen beetle abundance increased with MAT but to different degrees depending on the landscape context, that is, increased less strongly when OSR proportions were high (1‐km scale), interannually constant (5‐km scale) or both. In contrast, stem weevil abundance and stem damage did not respond to landscape composition nor MAT. Pollen beetle larval parasitism was overall low, but occasionally exceeded 30% under both low and high MAT and with reduced OSR area (0.6‐km scale).
Despite high pollen beetle abundance in warm climates, yields were high when OSR flowered early. Thereby, higher temperatures favoured early flowering. Only among late‐flowering OSR crop fields yield was higher in cooler than warmer climates. Bud loss responded analogously. Landscape composition did not substantially affect bud loss and yield.
Synthesis and applications: Earlier flowering of winter OSR compensates for higher pollen beetle abundance in warmer climates, while interannual continuity of OSR area prevents high pollen beetle abundance in the first place. Thus, regional coordination of crop rotation and crop management promoting early flowering may contribute to sustainable pest management in OSR under current and future climatic conditions.
The increasing availability and variety of global satellite products and the rapid development of new algorithms has provided great potential to generate a new level of data with different spatial, temporal, and spectral resolutions. However, the ability of these synthetic spatiotemporal datasets to accurately map and monitor our planet on a field or regional scale remains underexplored. This study aimed to support future research efforts in estimating crop yields by identifying the optimal spatial (10 m, 30 m, or 250 m) and temporal (8 or 16 days) resolutions on a regional scale. The current study explored and discussed the suitability of four different synthetic (Landsat (L)-MOD13Q1 (30 m, 8 and 16 days) and Sentinel-2 (S)-MOD13Q1 (10 m, 8 and 16 days)) and two real (MOD13Q1 (250 m, 8 and 16 days)) NDVI products combined separately to two widely used crop growth models (CGMs) (World Food Studies (WOFOST), and the semi-empiric Light Use Efficiency approach (LUE)) for winter wheat (WW) and oil seed rape (OSR) yield forecasts in Bavaria (70,550 km\(^2\)) for the year 2019. For WW and OSR, the synthetic products’ high spatial and temporal resolution resulted in higher yield accuracies using LUE and WOFOST. The observations of high temporal resolution (8-day) products of both S-MOD13Q1 and L-MOD13Q1 played a significant role in accurately measuring the yield of WW and OSR. For example, L- and S-MOD13Q1 resulted in an R\(^2\) = 0.82 and 0.85, RMSE = 5.46 and 5.01 dt/ha for WW, R\(^2\) = 0.89 and 0.82, and RMSE = 2.23 and 2.11 dt/ha for OSR using the LUE model, respectively. Similarly, for the 8- and 16-day products, the simple LUE model (R\(^2\) = 0.77 and relative RMSE (RRMSE) = 8.17%) required fewer input parameters to simulate crop yield and was highly accurate, reliable, and more precise than the complex WOFOST model (R\(^2\) = 0.66 and RRMSE = 11.35%) with higher input parameters. Conclusively, both S-MOD13Q1 and L-MOD13Q1, in combination with LUE, were more prominent for predicting crop yields on a regional scale than the 16-day products; however, L-MOD13Q1 was advantageous for generating and exploring the long-term yield time series due to the availability of Landsat data since 1982, with a maximum resolution of 30 m. In addition, this study recommended the further use of its findings for implementing and validating the long-term crop yield time series in different regions of the world.
Land-use intensification and climate change threaten ecosystem functions. A fundamental, yet often overlooked, function is decomposition of necromass. The direct and indirect anthropogenic effects on decomposition, however, are poorly understood. We measured decomposition of two contrasting types of necromass, rat carrion and bison dung, on 179 study sites in Central Europe across an elevational climate gradient of 168–1122 m a.s.l. and within both local and regional land uses. Local land-use types included forest, grassland, arable fields, and settlements and were embedded in three regional land-use types (near-natural, agricultural, and urban). The effects of insects on decomposition were quantified by experimental exclusion, while controlling for removal by vertebrates. We used generalized additive mixed models to evaluate dung weight loss and carrion decay rate along elevation and across regional and local land-use types. We observed a unimodal relationship of dung decomposition with elevation, where greatest weight loss occurred between 600 and 700 m, but no effects of local temperature, land use, or insects. In contrast to dung, carrion decomposition was continuously faster with both increasing elevation and local temperature. Carrion reached the final decomposition stage six days earlier when insect access was allowed, and this did not depend on land-use effect. Our experiment identified different major drivers of decomposition on each necromass form. The results show that dung and carrion decomposition are rather robust to local and regional land use, but future climate change and decline of insects could alter decomposition processes and the self-regulation of ecosystems.
Recent studies link increased ozone (O\(_3\)) and carbon dioxide (CO\(_2\)) levels to alteration of plant performance and plant-herbivore interactions, but their interactive effects on plant-pollinator interactions are little understood. Extra floral nectaries (EFNs) are essential organs used by some plants for stimulating defense against herbivory and for the attraction of insect pollinators, e.g., bees. The factors driving the interactions between bees and plants regarding the visitation of bees to EFNs are poorly understood, especially in the face of global change driven by greenhouse gases. Here, we experimentally tested whether elevated levels of O\(_3\) and CO\(_2\) individually and interactively alter the emission of Volatile Organic Compound (VOC) profiles in the field bean plant (Vicia faba, L., Fabaceae), EFN nectar production and EFN visitation by the European orchard bee (Osmia cornuta, Latreille, Megachilidae). Our results showed that O\(_3\) alone had significant negative effects on the blends of VOCs emitted while the treatment with elevated CO\(_2\) alone did not differ from the control. Furthermore, as with O\(_3\) alone, the mixture of O\(_3\) and CO\(_2\) also had a significant difference in the VOCs’ profile. O\(_3\) exposure was also linked to reduced nectar volume and had a negative impact on EFN visitation by bees. Increased CO\(_2\) level, on the other hand, had a positive impact on bee visits. Our results add to the knowledge of the interactive effects of O\(_3\) and CO\(_2\) on plant volatiles emitted by Vicia faba and bee responses. As greenhouse gas levels continue to rise globally, it is important to take these findings into consideration to better prepare for changes in plant-insect interactions.
Rapid and accurate yield estimates at both field and regional levels remain the goal of sustainable agriculture and food security. Hereby, the identification of consistent and reliable methodologies providing accurate yield predictions is one of the hot topics in agricultural research. This study investigated the relationship of spatiotemporal fusion modelling using STRAFM on crop yield prediction for winter wheat (WW) and oil-seed rape (OSR) using a semi-empirical light use efficiency (LUE) model for the Free State of Bavaria (70,550 km\(^2\)), Germany, from 2001 to 2019. A synthetic normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series was generated and validated by fusing the high spatial resolution (30 m, 16 days) Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) (2001 to 2012), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) (2012), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) (2013 to 2019) with the coarse resolution of MOD13Q1 (250 m, 16 days) from 2001 to 2019. Except for some temporal periods (i.e., 2001, 2002, and 2012), the study obtained an R\(^2\) of more than 0.65 and a RMSE of less than 0.11, which proves that the Landsat 8 OLI fused products are of higher accuracy than the Landsat 5 TM products. Moreover, the accuracies of the NDVI fusion data have been found to correlate with the total number of available Landsat scenes every year (N), with a correlation coefficient (R) of +0.83 (between R\(^2\) of yearly synthetic NDVIs and N) and −0.84 (between RMSEs and N). For crop yield prediction, the synthetic NDVI time series and climate elements (such as minimum temperature, maximum temperature, relative humidity, evaporation, transpiration, and solar radiation) are inputted to the LUE model, resulting in an average R\(^2\) of 0.75 (WW) and 0.73 (OSR), and RMSEs of 4.33 dt/ha and 2.19 dt/ha. The yield prediction results prove the consistency and stability of the LUE model for yield estimation. Using the LUE model, accurate crop yield predictions were obtained for WW (R\(^2\) = 0.88) and OSR (R\(^2\) = 0.74). Lastly, the study observed a high positive correlation of R = 0.81 and R = 0.77 between the yearly R\(^2\) of synthetic accuracy and modelled yield accuracy for WW and OSR, respectively.
The fast and accurate yield estimates with the increasing availability and variety of global satellite products and the rapid development of new algorithms remain a goal for precision agriculture and food security. However, the consistency and reliability of suitable methodologies that provide accurate crop yield outcomes still need to be explored. The study investigates the coupling of crop modeling and machine learning (ML) to improve the yield prediction of winter wheat (WW) and oil seed rape (OSR) and provides examples for the Free State of Bavaria (70,550 km2), Germany, in 2019. The main objectives are to find whether a coupling approach [Light Use Efficiency (LUE) + Random Forest (RF)] would result in better and more accurate yield predictions compared to results provided with other models not using the LUE. Four different RF models [RF1 (input: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)), RF2 (input: climate variables), RF3 (input: NDVI + climate variables), RF4 (input: LUE generated biomass + climate variables)], and one semi-empiric LUE model were designed with different input requirements to find the best predictors of crop monitoring. The results indicate that the individual use of the NDVI (in RF1) and the climate variables (in RF2) could not be the most accurate, reliable, and precise solution for crop monitoring; however, their combined use (in RF3) resulted in higher accuracies. Notably, the study suggested the coupling of the LUE model variables to the RF4 model can reduce the relative root mean square error (RRMSE) from −8% (WW) and −1.6% (OSR) and increase the R
2 by 14.3% (for both WW and OSR), compared to results just relying on LUE. Moreover, the research compares models yield outputs by inputting three different spatial inputs: Sentinel-2(S)-MOD13Q1 (10 m), Landsat (L)-MOD13Q1 (30 m), and MOD13Q1 (MODIS) (250 m). The S-MOD13Q1 data has relatively improved the performance of models with higher mean R
2 [0.80 (WW), 0.69 (OSR)], and lower RRMSE (%) (9.18, 10.21) compared to L-MOD13Q1 (30 m) and MOD13Q1 (250 m). Satellite-based crop biomass, solar radiation, and temperature are found to be the most influential variables in the yield prediction of both crops.
The exponential increase in the human population in tandem with increased food demand has caused agriculture to be the global‐dominant form of land use. Afrotropical drylands are currently facing the loss of natural savannah habitats and agricultural intensification with largely unknown consequences for bees. Here we investigate the effects of agricultural intensification on bee assemblages in the Afrotropical drylands of northern Tanzania. We disentangled the direct effects of agricultural intensification and temperature on bee richness from indirect effects mediated by changes in floral resources.
We collected data from 24 study sites representing three levels of management intensity (natural savannah, moderate intensive and highly intensive agriculture) spanning an extensive gradient of mean annual temperature (MAT) in northern Tanzania. We used ordinary linear models and path analysis to test the effects of agricultural intensity and MAT on bee species richness, bee species composition and body‐size variation of bee communities.
We found that bee species richness increased with agricultural intensity and with increasing temperature. The effects of agricultural intensity and temperature on bee species richness were mediated by the positive effects of agriculture and temperature on the richness of floral resources used by bees. During the off‐growing season, agricultural land was characterized by an extensive period of fallow land holding a very high density of flowering plants with unique bee species composition. The increase in bee diversity in agricultural habitats paralleled an increasing variation of bee body sizes with agricultural intensification that, however, diminished in environments with higher temperatures.
Synthesis and applications. Our study reveals that bee assemblages in Afrotropical drylands benefit from agricultural intensification in the way it is currently practiced. However, further land‐use intensification, including year‐round irrigated crop monocultures and excessive use of agrochemicals, is likely to exert a negative impact on bee diversity and pollination services, as reported in temperate regions. Moreover, several bee species were restricted to natural savannah habitats. To conserve bee communities and guarantee pollination services in the region, a mixture of savannah and agriculture, with long periods of fallow land should be maintained.
Environmental gradients generate and maintain biodiversity on Earth. Mountain slopes are among the most pronounced terrestrial environmental gradients, and the elevational structure of species and their interactions can provide unique insight into the processes that govern community assembly and function in mountain ecosystems. We recorded bumble bee–flower interactions over 3 years along a 1400‐m elevational gradient in the German Alps. Using nonlinear modeling techniques, we analyzed elevational patterns at the levels of abundance, species richness, species β‐diversity, and interaction β‐diversity. Though floral richness exhibited a midelevation peak, bumble bee richness increased with elevation before leveling off at the highest sites, demonstrating the exceptional adaptation of these bees to cold temperatures and short growing seasons. In terms of abundance, though, bumble bees exhibited divergent species‐level responses to elevation, with a clear separation between species preferring low versus high elevations. Overall interaction β‐diversity was mainly caused by strong turnover in the floral community, which exhibited a well‐defined threshold of β‐diversity rate at the tree line ecotone. Interaction β‐diversity increased sharply at the upper extreme of the elevation gradient (1800–2000 m), an interval over which we also saw steep decline in floral richness and abundance. Turnover of bumble bees along the elevation gradient was modest, with the highest rate of β‐diversity occurring over the interval from low‐ to mid‐elevation sites. The contrast between the relative robustness bumble bee communities and sensitivity of plant communities to the elevational gradient in our study suggests that the strongest effects of climate change on mountain bumble bees may be indirect effects mediated by the responses of their floral hosts, though bumble bee species that specialize in high‐elevation habitats may also experience significant direct effects of warming.
The mechanisms by which climatic changes influence ecosystem functions, that is, by a direct climatic control of ecosystem processes or by modifying richness and trait compositions of species communities, remain unresolved.
This study is a contribution to this discourse by elucidating the linkages between climate, land use, biodiversity, body size and ecosystem functions.
We disentangled direct climatic from biodiversity‐mediated effects by using dung removal by dung beetles as a model system and by combining correlative field data and exclosure experiments along an extensive elevational gradient on Mt. Kilimanjaro, Tanzania.
Dung removal declined with increasing elevation, being associated with a strong reduction in the richness and body size traits of dung beetle communities. Climate influenced dung removal rates by modifying biodiversity rather than by direct effects. The biodiversity–ecosystem effect was driven by a change in the mean body size of dung beetles. Dung removal rates were strongly reduced when large dung beetles were experimentally excluded.
This study underscores that climate influences ecosystem functions mainly by modifying biodiversity and underpins the important role of body size for dung removal.
Abiotic factors are generally assumed to determine whether species can exist at the extreme ends of environmental gradients, for example, at high elevations, whereas the role of biotic interactions is less clear. On temperate mountains, insect‐pollinated plant species with bilaterally symmetrical flowers exhibit a parallel elevational decline in species richness and abundance with bees. This suggests that the lack of mutualistic interaction partners sets the elevational range limits of plants via a reduction in reproductive success. We used the bee‐pollinated mountain plant Clinopodium alpinum (Lamiaceae), which blooms along a continuous 1000‐m elevational gradient and has bilaterally symmetrical flowers, as a model to test the predicted parallel elevational decline in flower visitation and seed production. Although the community of flower visitors changed with elevation, the flower visitation rate by the most frequent visitors, bumble bees (33.8% of legitimate visits), and the overall rate of flower visitation by potential pollinators did not vary significantly with elevation. However, we discovered that nectar robbing by bumble bees and nectar theft by ants, two interactions with potentially negative effects on flowers, sharply increased with elevation. Seed set depended on pollinators across elevations and followed a weak hump‐shaped pattern, peaking at mid‐elevations and decreasing by about 20% toward both elevational range edges. Considering the mid‐ and high elevations, elevational variation in seed production could not be explained by legitimate bee visitation rates but was inversely correlated with the frequency of nectar robbing. Our observations challenge the hypothesis that a decrease in the availability of pollinators limits seed production of bee‐flowered plants at high elevations but suggest that an increase in negative interactions (nectar robbing and larceny) constrains reproductive success.