526 Mathematische Geografie
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The increasing availability and variety of global satellite products and the rapid development of new algorithms has provided great potential to generate a new level of data with different spatial, temporal, and spectral resolutions. However, the ability of these synthetic spatiotemporal datasets to accurately map and monitor our planet on a field or regional scale remains underexplored. This study aimed to support future research efforts in estimating crop yields by identifying the optimal spatial (10 m, 30 m, or 250 m) and temporal (8 or 16 days) resolutions on a regional scale. The current study explored and discussed the suitability of four different synthetic (Landsat (L)-MOD13Q1 (30 m, 8 and 16 days) and Sentinel-2 (S)-MOD13Q1 (10 m, 8 and 16 days)) and two real (MOD13Q1 (250 m, 8 and 16 days)) NDVI products combined separately to two widely used crop growth models (CGMs) (World Food Studies (WOFOST), and the semi-empiric Light Use Efficiency approach (LUE)) for winter wheat (WW) and oil seed rape (OSR) yield forecasts in Bavaria (70,550 km\(^2\)) for the year 2019. For WW and OSR, the synthetic products’ high spatial and temporal resolution resulted in higher yield accuracies using LUE and WOFOST. The observations of high temporal resolution (8-day) products of both S-MOD13Q1 and L-MOD13Q1 played a significant role in accurately measuring the yield of WW and OSR. For example, L- and S-MOD13Q1 resulted in an R\(^2\) = 0.82 and 0.85, RMSE = 5.46 and 5.01 dt/ha for WW, R\(^2\) = 0.89 and 0.82, and RMSE = 2.23 and 2.11 dt/ha for OSR using the LUE model, respectively. Similarly, for the 8- and 16-day products, the simple LUE model (R\(^2\) = 0.77 and relative RMSE (RRMSE) = 8.17%) required fewer input parameters to simulate crop yield and was highly accurate, reliable, and more precise than the complex WOFOST model (R\(^2\) = 0.66 and RRMSE = 11.35%) with higher input parameters. Conclusively, both S-MOD13Q1 and L-MOD13Q1, in combination with LUE, were more prominent for predicting crop yields on a regional scale than the 16-day products; however, L-MOD13Q1 was advantageous for generating and exploring the long-term yield time series due to the availability of Landsat data since 1982, with a maximum resolution of 30 m. In addition, this study recommended the further use of its findings for implementing and validating the long-term crop yield time series in different regions of the world.
Rapid and accurate yield estimates at both field and regional levels remain the goal of sustainable agriculture and food security. Hereby, the identification of consistent and reliable methodologies providing accurate yield predictions is one of the hot topics in agricultural research. This study investigated the relationship of spatiotemporal fusion modelling using STRAFM on crop yield prediction for winter wheat (WW) and oil-seed rape (OSR) using a semi-empirical light use efficiency (LUE) model for the Free State of Bavaria (70,550 km\(^2\)), Germany, from 2001 to 2019. A synthetic normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series was generated and validated by fusing the high spatial resolution (30 m, 16 days) Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) (2001 to 2012), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) (2012), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) (2013 to 2019) with the coarse resolution of MOD13Q1 (250 m, 16 days) from 2001 to 2019. Except for some temporal periods (i.e., 2001, 2002, and 2012), the study obtained an R\(^2\) of more than 0.65 and a RMSE of less than 0.11, which proves that the Landsat 8 OLI fused products are of higher accuracy than the Landsat 5 TM products. Moreover, the accuracies of the NDVI fusion data have been found to correlate with the total number of available Landsat scenes every year (N), with a correlation coefficient (R) of +0.83 (between R\(^2\) of yearly synthetic NDVIs and N) and −0.84 (between RMSEs and N). For crop yield prediction, the synthetic NDVI time series and climate elements (such as minimum temperature, maximum temperature, relative humidity, evaporation, transpiration, and solar radiation) are inputted to the LUE model, resulting in an average R\(^2\) of 0.75 (WW) and 0.73 (OSR), and RMSEs of 4.33 dt/ha and 2.19 dt/ha. The yield prediction results prove the consistency and stability of the LUE model for yield estimation. Using the LUE model, accurate crop yield predictions were obtained for WW (R\(^2\) = 0.88) and OSR (R\(^2\) = 0.74). Lastly, the study observed a high positive correlation of R = 0.81 and R = 0.77 between the yearly R\(^2\) of synthetic accuracy and modelled yield accuracy for WW and OSR, respectively.
Spatiotemporal Fusion Modelling Using STARFM: Examples of Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 NDVI in Bavaria
(2022)
The increasing availability and variety of global satellite products provide a new level of data with different spatial, temporal, and spectral resolutions; however, identifying the most suited resolution for a specific application consumes increasingly more time and computation effort. The region’s cloud coverage additionally influences the choice of the best trade-off between spatial and temporal resolution, and different pixel sizes of remote sensing (RS) data may hinder the accurate monitoring of different land cover (LC) classes such as agriculture, forest, grassland, water, urban, and natural-seminatural. To investigate the importance of RS data for these LC classes, the present study fuses NDVIs of two high spatial resolution data (high pair) (Landsat (30 m, 16 days; L) and Sentinel-2 (10 m, 5–6 days; S), with four low spatial resolution data (low pair) (MOD13Q1 (250 m, 16 days), MCD43A4 (500 m, one day), MOD09GQ (250 m, one-day), and MOD09Q1 (250 m, eight day)) using the spatial and temporal adaptive reflectance fusion model (STARFM), which fills regions’ cloud or shadow gaps without losing spatial information. These eight synthetic NDVI STARFM products (2: high pair multiply 4: low pair) offer a spatial resolution of 10 or 30 m and temporal resolution of 1, 8, or 16 days for the entire state of Bavaria (Germany) in 2019. Due to their higher revisit frequency and more cloud and shadow-free scenes (S = 13, L = 9), Sentinel-2 (overall R\(^2\) = 0.71, and RMSE = 0.11) synthetic NDVI products provide more accurate results than Landsat (overall R\(^2\) = 0.61, and RMSE = 0.13). Likewise, for the agriculture class, synthetic products obtained using Sentinel-2 resulted in higher accuracy than Landsat except for L-MOD13Q1 (R\(^2\) = 0.62, RMSE = 0.11), resulting in similar accuracy preciseness as S-MOD13Q1 (R\(^2\) = 0.68, RMSE = 0.13). Similarly, comparing L-MOD13Q1 (R\(^2\) = 0.60, RMSE = 0.05) and S-MOD13Q1 (R\(^2\) = 0.52, RMSE = 0.09) for the forest class, the former resulted in higher accuracy and precision than the latter. Conclusively, both L-MOD13Q1 and S-MOD13Q1 are suitable for agricultural and forest monitoring; however, the spatial resolution of 30 m and low storage capacity makes L-MOD13Q1 more prominent and faster than that of S-MOD13Q1 with the 10-m spatial resolution.
The monitoring of species and functional diversity is of increasing relevance for the development of strategies for the conservation and management of biodiversity. Therefore, reliable estimates of the performance of monitoring techniques across taxa become important. Using a unique dataset, this study investigates the potential of airborne LiDAR-derived variables characterizing vegetation structure as predictors for animal species richness at the southern slopes of Mount Kilimanjaro. To disentangle the structural LiDAR information from co-factors related to elevational vegetation zones, LiDAR-based models were compared to the predictive power of elevation models. 17 taxa and 4 feeding guilds were modeled and the standardized study design allowed for a comparison across the assemblages. Results show that most taxa (14) and feeding guilds (3) can be predicted best by elevation with normalized RMSE values but only for three of those taxa and two of those feeding guilds the difference to other models is significant. Generally, modeling performances between different models vary only slightly for each assemblage. For the remaining, structural information at most showed little additional contribution to the performance. In summary, LiDAR observations can be used for animal species prediction. However, the effort and cost of aerial surveys are not always in proportion with the prediction quality, especially when the species distribution follows zonal patterns, and elevation information yields similar results.
The fast and accurate yield estimates with the increasing availability and variety of global satellite products and the rapid development of new algorithms remain a goal for precision agriculture and food security. However, the consistency and reliability of suitable methodologies that provide accurate crop yield outcomes still need to be explored. The study investigates the coupling of crop modeling and machine learning (ML) to improve the yield prediction of winter wheat (WW) and oil seed rape (OSR) and provides examples for the Free State of Bavaria (70,550 km2), Germany, in 2019. The main objectives are to find whether a coupling approach [Light Use Efficiency (LUE) + Random Forest (RF)] would result in better and more accurate yield predictions compared to results provided with other models not using the LUE. Four different RF models [RF1 (input: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)), RF2 (input: climate variables), RF3 (input: NDVI + climate variables), RF4 (input: LUE generated biomass + climate variables)], and one semi-empiric LUE model were designed with different input requirements to find the best predictors of crop monitoring. The results indicate that the individual use of the NDVI (in RF1) and the climate variables (in RF2) could not be the most accurate, reliable, and precise solution for crop monitoring; however, their combined use (in RF3) resulted in higher accuracies. Notably, the study suggested the coupling of the LUE model variables to the RF4 model can reduce the relative root mean square error (RRMSE) from −8% (WW) and −1.6% (OSR) and increase the R
2 by 14.3% (for both WW and OSR), compared to results just relying on LUE. Moreover, the research compares models yield outputs by inputting three different spatial inputs: Sentinel-2(S)-MOD13Q1 (10 m), Landsat (L)-MOD13Q1 (30 m), and MOD13Q1 (MODIS) (250 m). The S-MOD13Q1 data has relatively improved the performance of models with higher mean R
2 [0.80 (WW), 0.69 (OSR)], and lower RRMSE (%) (9.18, 10.21) compared to L-MOD13Q1 (30 m) and MOD13Q1 (250 m). Satellite-based crop biomass, solar radiation, and temperature are found to be the most influential variables in the yield prediction of both crops.
Contemporary climate change leads to earlier spring phenological events in Europe. In forests, in which overstory strongly regulates the microclimate beneath, it is not clear if further change equally shifts the timing of leaf unfolding for the over- and understory of main deciduous forest species, such as Fagus sylvatica L. (European beech). Furthermore, it is not known yet how this vertical phenological (mis)match — the phenological difference between overstory and understory — affects the remotely sensed satellite signal. To investigate this, we disentangled the start of season (SOS) of overstory F.sylvatica foliage from understory F. sylvatica foliage in forests, within nine quadrants of 5.8 × 5.8 km, stratified over a temperature gradient of 2.5 °C in Bavaria, southeast Germany, in the spring seasons of 2019 and 2020 using time lapse cameras and visual ground observations. We explained SOS dates and vertical phenological (mis)match by canopy temperature and compared these to Sentinel-2 derived SOS in response to canopy temperature. We found that overstory SOS advanced with higher mean April canopy temperature (visual ground observations: −2.86 days per °C; cameras: −2.57 days per °C). However, understory SOS was not significantly affected by canopy temperature. This led to an increase of vertical phenological mismatch with increased canopy temperature (visual ground observations: +3.90 days per °C; cameras: +2.52 days per °C). These results matched Sentinel-2-derived SOS responses, as pixels of higher canopy height advanced more by increased canopy temperature than pixels of lower canopy height. The results may indicate that, with further climate change, spring phenology of F. sylvatica overstory will advance more than F. sylvatica understory, leading to increased vertical phenological mismatch in temperate deciduous forests. This may have major ecological effects, but also methodological consequences for the field of remote sensing, as what the signal senses highly depends on the pixel mean canopy height and the vertical (mis)match.
Forest biodiversity conservation requires precise, area-wide information on the abundance and distribution of key habitat structures at multiple spatial scales. We combined airborne laser scanning (ALS) data with color-infrared (CIR) aerial imagery for identifying individual tree characteristics and quantifying multi-scale habitat requirements using the example of the three-toed woodpecker (Picoides tridactylus) (TTW) in the Bavarian Forest National Park (Germany). This bird, a keystone species of boreal and mountainous forests, is highly reliant on bark beetles dwelling in dead or dying trees. While previous studies showed a positive relationship between the TTW presence and the amount of deadwood as a limiting resource, we hypothesized a unimodal response with a negative effect of very high deadwood amounts and tested for effects of substrate quality. Based on 104 woodpecker presence or absence locations, habitat selection was modelled at four spatial scales reflecting different woodpecker home range sizes. The abundance of standing dead trees was the most important predictor, with an increase in the probability of TTW occurrence up to a threshold of 44–50 dead trees per hectare, followed by a decrease in the probability of occurrence. A positive relationship with the deadwood crown size indicated the importance of fresh deadwood. Remote sensing data allowed both an area-wide prediction of species occurrence and the derivation of ecological threshold values for deadwood quality and quantity for more informed conservation management.