526 Mathematische Geografie
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The analysis of the Earth system and interactions among its spheres is increasingly important to improve the understanding of global environmental change. In this regard, Earth observation (EO) is a valuable tool for monitoring of long term changes over the land surface and its features. Although investigations commonly study environmental change by means of a single EO-based land surface variable, a joint exploitation of multivariate land surface variables covering several spheres is still rarely performed. In this regard, we present a novel methodological framework for both, the automated processing of multisource time series to generate a unified multivariate feature space, as well as the application of statistical time series analysis techniques to quantify land surface change and driving variables. In particular, we unify multivariate time series over the last two decades including vegetation greenness, surface water area, snow cover area, and climatic, as well as hydrological variables. Furthermore, the statistical time series analyses include quantification of trends, changes in seasonality, and evaluation of drivers using the recently proposed causal discovery algorithm Peter and Clark Momentary Conditional Independence (PCMCI). We demonstrate the functionality of our methodological framework using Indo-Gangetic river basins in South Asia as a case study. The time series analyses reveal increasing trends in vegetation greenness being largely dependent on water availability, decreasing trends in snow cover area being mostly negatively coupled to temperature, and trends of surface water area to be spatially heterogeneous and linked to various driving variables. Overall, the obtained results highlight the value and suitability of this methodological framework with respect to global climate change research, enabling multivariate time series preparation, derivation of detailed information on significant trends and seasonality, as well as detection of causal links with minimal user intervention. This study is the first to use multivariate time series including several EO-based variables to analyze land surface dynamics over the last two decades using the causal discovery algorithm PCMCI.
Intercomparison of satellite-derived vegetation phenology is scarce in remote locations because of the limited coverage area and low temporal resolution of field observations. By their reliable near-ground observations and high-frequency data collection, PhenoCams can be a robust tool for intercomparison of land surface phenology derived from satellites. This study aims to investigate the transition dates of black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) phenology by comparing fortnightly the MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) extracted using the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform with the daily PhenoCam-based green chromatic coordinate (GCC) index. Data were collected from 2016 to 2019 by PhenoCams installed in six mature stands along a latitudinal gradient of the boreal forests of Quebec, Canada. All time series were fitted by double-logistic functions, and the estimated parameters were compared between NDVI, EVI, and GCC. The onset of GCC occurred in the second week of May, whereas the ending of GCC occurred in the last week of September. We demonstrated that GCC was more correlated with EVI (R\(^2\) from 0.66 to 0.85) than NDVI (R\(^2\) from 0.52 to 0.68). In addition, the onset and ending of phenology were shown to differ by 3.5 and 5.4 days between EVI and GCC, respectively. Larger differences were detected between NDVI and GCC, 17.05 and 26.89 days for the onset and ending, respectively. EVI showed better estimations of the phenological dates than NDVI. This better performance is explained by the higher spectral sensitivity of EVI for multiple canopy leaf layers due to the presence of an additional blue band and an optimized soil factor value. Our study demonstrates that the phenological observations derived from PhenoCam are comparable with the EVI index. We conclude that EVI is more suitable than NDVI to assess phenology in evergreen species of the northern boreal region, where PhenoCam data are not available. The EVI index could be used as a reliable proxy of GCC for monitoring evergreen species phenology in areas with reduced access, or where repeated data collection from remote areas are logistically difficult due to the extreme weather.
Freely available satellite data at Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud platform enables vegetation phenology analysis across different scales very efficiently. We evaluated seasonal and annual phenology of the old-growth Hyrcanian forests (HF) of northern Iran covering an area of ca. 1.9 million ha, and also focused on 15 UNESCO World Heritage Sites. We extracted bi-weekly MODIS-NDVI between 2017 and 2020 in GEE, which was used to identify the range of NDVI between two temporal stages. Then, changes in phenology and growth were analyzed by Sentinel 2-derived Temporal Normalized Phenology Index. We modelled between seasonal phenology and growth by additionally considering elevation, surface temperature, and monthly precipitation. Results indicated considerable difference in onset of forests along the longitudinal gradient of the HF. Faster growth was observed in low- and uplands of the western zone, whereas it was lower in both the mid-elevations and the western outskirts. Longitudinal range was a major driver of vegetation growth, to which environmental factors also differently but significantly contributed (p < 0.0001) along the west-east gradient. Our study developed at GEE provides a benchmark to examine the effects of environmental parameters on the vegetation growth of HF, which cover mountainous areas with partly no or limited accessibility.
Earth Observation satellite data allows for the monitoring of the surface of our planet at predefined intervals covering large areas. However, there is only one medium resolution sensor family in orbit that enables an observation time span of 40 and more years at a daily repeat interval. This is the AVHRR sensor family. If we want to investigate the long-term impacts of climate change on our environment, we can only do so based on data that remains available for several decades. If we then want to investigate processes with respect to climate change, we need very high temporal resolution enabling the generation of long-term time series and the derivation of related statistical parameters such as mean, variability, anomalies, and trends. The challenges to generating a well calibrated and harmonized 40-year-long time series based on AVHRR sensor data flown on 14 different platforms are enormous. However, only extremely thorough pre-processing and harmonization ensures that trends found in the data are real trends and not sensor-related (or other) artefacts. The generation of European-wide time series as a basis for the derivation of a multitude of parameters is therefore an extremely challenging task, the details of which are presented in this paper.
Land Surface Temperature (LST) is an important parameter for tracing the impact of changing climatic conditions on our environment. Describing the interface between long- and shortwave radiation fluxes, as well as between turbulent heat fluxes and the ground heat flux, LST plays a crucial role in the global heat balance. Satellite-derived LST is an indispensable tool for monitoring these changes consistently over large areas and for long time periods. Data from the AVHRR (Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer) sensors have been available since the early 1980s. In the TIMELINE project, LST is derived for the entire operating period of AVHRR sensors over Europe at a 1 km spatial resolution. In this study, we present the validation results for the TIMELINE AVHRR daytime LST. The validation approach consists of an assessment of the temporal consistency of the AVHRR LST time series, an inter-comparison between AVHRR LST and in situ LST, and a comparison of the AVHRR LST product with concurrent MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) LST. The results indicate the successful derivation of stable LST time series from multi-decadal AVHRR data. The validation results were investigated regarding different LST, TCWV and VA, as well as land cover classes. The comparisons between the TIMELINE LST product and the reference datasets show seasonal and land cover-related patterns. The LST level was found to be the most determinative factor of the error. On average, an absolute deviation of the AVHRR LST by 1.83 K from in situ LST, as well as a difference of 2.34 K from the MODIS product, was observed.
Coal mining, an important human activity, disturbs soil organic carbon (SOC) accumulation and decomposition, eventually affecting terrestrial carbon cycling and the sustainability of human society. However, changes of SOC content and their relation with influential factors in coal mining areas remained unclear. In the study, predictive models of SOC content were developed based on field sampling and Landsat images for different land-use types (grassland, forest, farmland, and bare land) of the largest coal mining area in China (i.e., Shendong). The established models were employed to estimate SOC content across the Shendong mining area during 1990–2020, followed by an investigation into the impacts of climate change and human disturbance on SOC content by a Geo-detector. Results showed that the models produced satisfactory results (R\(^2\) > 0.69, p < 0.05), demonstrating that SOC content over a large coal mining area can be effectively assessed using remote sensing techniques. Results revealed that average SOC content in the study area rose from 5.67 gC·kg\(^{−1}\) in 1990 to 9.23 gC·kg\(^{−1}\) in 2010 and then declined to 5.31 gC·Kg\(^{−1}\) in 2020. This could be attributed to the interaction between the disturbance of soil caused by coal mining and the improvement of eco-environment by land reclamation. Spatially, the SOC content of farmland was the highest, followed by grassland, and that of bare land was the lowest. SOC accumulation was inhibited by coal mining activities, with the effect of high-intensity mining being lower than that of moderate- and low-intensity mining activities. Land use was found to be the strongest individual influencing factor for SOC content changes, while the interaction between vegetation coverage and precipitation exerted the most significant influence on the variability of SOC content. Furthermore, the influence of mining intensity combined with precipitation was 10 times higher than that of mining intensity alone.
Vietnam's 3260 km coastline is densely populated, experiences rapid urban and economic growth, and faces at the same time a high risk of coastal hazards. Satellite archives provide a free and powerful opportunity for long-term area-wide monitoring of the coastal zone. This paper presents an automated analysis of coastline dynamics from 1986 to 2021 for Vietnam's entire coastal zone using the Landsat archive. The proposed method is implemented within the cloud-computing platform Google Earth Engine to only involve publicly and globally available datasets and tools. We generated annual coastline composites representing the mean-high water level and extracted sub-pixel coastlines. We further quantified coastline change rates along shore-perpendicular transects, revealing that half of Vietnam's coast did not experience significant change, while the remaining half is classified as erosional (27.7%) and accretional (27.1%). A hotspot analysis shows that coastal segments with the highest change rates are concentrated in the low-lying deltas of the Mekong River in the south and the Red River in the north. Hotspots with the highest accretion rates of up to +47 m/year are mainly associated with the construction of artificial coastlines, while hotspots with the highest erosion rates of −28 m/year may be related to natural sediment redistribution and human activity.
An increasing amount of Brazilian rainforest is being lost or degraded for various reasons, both anthropogenic and natural, leading to a loss of biodiversity and further global consequences. Especially in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso, soy production and large-scale cattle farms led to extensive losses of rainforest in recent years. We used a spectral mixture approach followed by a decision tree classification based on more than 30 years of Landsat data to quantify these losses. Research has shown that current methods for assessing forest degradation are lacking accuracy. Therefore, we generated classifications to determine land cover changes for each year, focusing on both cleared and degraded forest land. The analyses showed a decrease in forest area in Mato Grosso by 28.8% between 1986 and 2020. In order to measure changed forest structures for the selected period, fragmentation analyses based on diverse landscape metrics were carried out for the municipality of Colniza in Mato Grosso. It was found that forest areas experienced also a high degree of fragmentation over the study period, with an increase of 83.3% of the number of patches and a decrease of the mean patch area of 86.1% for the selected time period, resulting in altered habitats for flora and fauna.
Mapping of lava flows in unvegetated areas of active volcanoes using optical satellite data is challenging due to spectral similarities of volcanic deposits and the surrounding background. Using very high-resolution PlanetScope data, this study introduces a novel object-oriented classification approach for mapping lava flows in both vegetated and unvegetated areas during several eruptive phases of three Indonesian volcanoes (Karangetang 2018/2019, Agung 2017, Krakatau 2018/2019). For this, change detection analysis based on PlanetScope imagery for mapping loss of vegetation due to volcanic activity (e.g., lava flows) is combined with the analysis of changes in texture and brightness, with hydrological runoff modelling and with analysis of thermal anomalies derived from Sentinel-2 or Landsat-8. Qualitative comparison of the mapped lava flows showed good agreement with multispectral false color time series (Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8). Reports of the Global Volcanism Program support the findings, indicating the developed lava mapping approach produces valuable results for monitoring volcanic hazards. Despite the lack of bands in infrared wavelengths, PlanetScope proves beneficial for the assessment of risk and near-real-time monitoring of active volcanoes due to its high spatial (3 m) and temporal resolution (mapping of all subaerial volcanoes on a daily basis).
Comparing PlanetScope and Sentinel-2 imagery for mapping mountain pines in the Sarntal Alps, Italy
(2022)
The mountain pine (Pinus mugo ssp. Mugo Turra) is an important component of the alpine treeline ecotone and fulfills numerous ecosystem functions. To understand and quantify the impacts of increasing logging activities and climatic changes in the European Alps, accurate information on the occurrence and distribution of mountain pine stands is needed. While Earth observation provides up-to-date information on land cover, space-borne mapping of mountain pines is challenging as different coniferous species are spectrally similar, and small-structured patches may remain undetected due to the sensor’s spatial resolution. This study uses multi-temporal optical imagery from PlanetScope (3 m) and Sentinel-2 (10 m) and combines them with additional features (e.g., textural statistics (homogeneity, contrast, entropy, spatial mean and spatial variance) from gray level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM), topographic features (elevation, slope and aspect) and canopy height information) to overcome the present challenges in mapping mountain pine stands. Specifically, we assessed the influence of spatial resolution and feature space composition including the GLCM window size for textural features. The study site is covering the Sarntal Alps, Italy, a region known for large stands of mountain pine. Our results show that mountain pines can be accurately mapped (PlanetScope (90.96%) and Sentinel-2 (90.65%)) by combining all features. In general, Sentinel-2 can achieve comparable results to PlanetScope independent of the feature set composition, despite the lower spatial resolution. In particular, the inclusion of textural features improved the accuracy by +8% (PlanetScope) and +3% (Sentinel-2), whereas accuracy improvements of topographic features and canopy height were low. The derived map of mountain pines in the Sarntal Alps supports local forest management to monitor and assess recent and ongoing anthropogenic and climatic changes at the treeline. Furthermore, our study highlights the importance of freely available Sentinel-2 data and image-derived textural features to accurately map mountain pines in Alpine environments.
Arctic permafrost coasts become increasingly vulnerable due to environmental drivers such as the reduced sea-ice extent and duration as well as the thawing of permafrost itself. A continuous quantification of the erosion process on large to circum-Arctic scales is required to fully assess the extent and understand the consequences of eroding permafrost coastlines. This study presents a novel approach to quantify annual Arctic coastal erosion and build-up rates based on Sentinel-1 (S1) Synthetic Aperture RADAR (SAR) backscatter data, in combination with Deep Learning (DL) and Change Vector Analysis (CVA). The methodology includes the generation of a high-quality Arctic coastline product via DL, which acted as a reference for quantifying coastal erosion and build-up rates from annual median and standard deviation (sd) backscatter images via CVA. The analysis was applied on ten test sites distributed across the Arctic and covering about 1038 km of coastline. Results revealed maximum erosion rates of up to 160 m for some areas and an average erosion rate of 4.37 m across all test sites within a three-year temporal window from 2017 to 2020. The observed erosion rates within the framework of this study agree with findings published in the previous literature. The proposed methods and data can be applied on large scales and, prospectively, even for the entire Arctic. The generated products may be used for quantifying the loss of frozen ground, estimating the release of stored organic material, and can act as a basis for further related studies in Arctic coastal environments.
The monitoring of species and functional diversity is of increasing relevance for the development of strategies for the conservation and management of biodiversity. Therefore, reliable estimates of the performance of monitoring techniques across taxa become important. Using a unique dataset, this study investigates the potential of airborne LiDAR-derived variables characterizing vegetation structure as predictors for animal species richness at the southern slopes of Mount Kilimanjaro. To disentangle the structural LiDAR information from co-factors related to elevational vegetation zones, LiDAR-based models were compared to the predictive power of elevation models. 17 taxa and 4 feeding guilds were modeled and the standardized study design allowed for a comparison across the assemblages. Results show that most taxa (14) and feeding guilds (3) can be predicted best by elevation with normalized RMSE values but only for three of those taxa and two of those feeding guilds the difference to other models is significant. Generally, modeling performances between different models vary only slightly for each assemblage. For the remaining, structural information at most showed little additional contribution to the performance. In summary, LiDAR observations can be used for animal species prediction. However, the effort and cost of aerial surveys are not always in proportion with the prediction quality, especially when the species distribution follows zonal patterns, and elevation information yields similar results.
The fast and accurate yield estimates with the increasing availability and variety of global satellite products and the rapid development of new algorithms remain a goal for precision agriculture and food security. However, the consistency and reliability of suitable methodologies that provide accurate crop yield outcomes still need to be explored. The study investigates the coupling of crop modeling and machine learning (ML) to improve the yield prediction of winter wheat (WW) and oil seed rape (OSR) and provides examples for the Free State of Bavaria (70,550 km2), Germany, in 2019. The main objectives are to find whether a coupling approach [Light Use Efficiency (LUE) + Random Forest (RF)] would result in better and more accurate yield predictions compared to results provided with other models not using the LUE. Four different RF models [RF1 (input: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)), RF2 (input: climate variables), RF3 (input: NDVI + climate variables), RF4 (input: LUE generated biomass + climate variables)], and one semi-empiric LUE model were designed with different input requirements to find the best predictors of crop monitoring. The results indicate that the individual use of the NDVI (in RF1) and the climate variables (in RF2) could not be the most accurate, reliable, and precise solution for crop monitoring; however, their combined use (in RF3) resulted in higher accuracies. Notably, the study suggested the coupling of the LUE model variables to the RF4 model can reduce the relative root mean square error (RRMSE) from −8% (WW) and −1.6% (OSR) and increase the R
2 by 14.3% (for both WW and OSR), compared to results just relying on LUE. Moreover, the research compares models yield outputs by inputting three different spatial inputs: Sentinel-2(S)-MOD13Q1 (10 m), Landsat (L)-MOD13Q1 (30 m), and MOD13Q1 (MODIS) (250 m). The S-MOD13Q1 data has relatively improved the performance of models with higher mean R
2 [0.80 (WW), 0.69 (OSR)], and lower RRMSE (%) (9.18, 10.21) compared to L-MOD13Q1 (30 m) and MOD13Q1 (250 m). Satellite-based crop biomass, solar radiation, and temperature are found to be the most influential variables in the yield prediction of both crops.
Enhancing digital and precision agriculture is currently inevitable to overcome the economic and environmental challenges of the agriculture in the 21st century. The purpose of this study was to generate and compare management zones (MZ) based on the Sentinel-2 satellite data for variable rate application of mineral nitrogen in wheat production, calculated using different remote sensing (RS)-based models under varied soil, yield and crop data availability. Three models were applied, including (1) a modified “RS- and threshold-based clustering”, (2) a “hybrid-based, unsupervised clustering”, in which data from different sources were combined for MZ delineation, and (3) a “RS-based, unsupervised clustering”. Various data processing methods including machine learning were used in the model development. Statistical tests such as the Paired Sample T-test, Kruskal–Wallis H-test and Wilcoxon signed-rank test were applied to evaluate the final delineated MZ maps. Additionally, a procedure for improving models based on information about phenological phases and the occurrence of agricultural drought was implemented. The results showed that information on agronomy and climate enables improving and optimizing MZ delineation. The integration of prior knowledge on new climate conditions (drought) in image selection was tested for effective use of the models. Lack of this information led to the infeasibility of obtaining optimal results. Models that solely rely on remote sensing information are comparatively less expensive than hybrid models. Additionally, remote sensing-based models enable delineating MZ for fertilizer recommendations that are temporally closer to fertilization times.
Mapping aquaculture ponds for the coastal zone of Asia with Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 time series
(2021)
Asia dominates the world's aquaculture sector, generating almost 90 percent of its total annual global production. Fish, shrimp, and mollusks are mainly farmed in land-based pond aquaculture systems and serve as a primary protein source for millions of people. The total production and area occupied for pond aquaculture has expanded rapidly in coastal regions in Asia since the early 1990s. The growth of aquaculture was mainly boosted by an increasing demand for fish and seafood from a growing world population. The aquaculture sector generates income and employment, contributes to food security, and has become a billion-dollar industry with high socio-economic value, but has also led to severe environmental degradation. In this regard, geospatial information on aquaculture can support the management of this growing food sector for the sustainable development of coastal ecosystems, resources, and human health. With free and open access to the rapidly growing volume of data from the Copernicus Sentinel missions as well as machine learning algorithms and cloud computing services, we extracted coastal aquaculture at a continental scale. We present a multi-sensor approach that utilizes Earth observation time series data for the mapping of pond aquaculture within the entire Asian coastal zone, defined as the onshore area up to 200 km from the coastline. In this research, we developed an object-based framework to detect and extract aquaculture at a single-pond level based on temporal features derived from high-spatial-resolution SAR and optical satellite data acquired from the Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 satellites. In a second step, we performed spatial and statistical data analyses of the Earth-observation-derived aquaculture dataset to investigate spatial distribution and identify production hotspots at various administrative units at regional, national, and sub-national scale.
Semi-arid tree covers, in both high and coppice growth forms, play an essential role in protecting water and soil resources and provides multiple ecosystem services across fragile ecosystems. Thus, they require continuous inventories. Quantification of forest structure in these tree covers provides important measures for their management and biodiversity conservation. We present a framework, based on consumer-grade UAV photogrammetry, to separately estimate primary variables of tree height (H) and crown area (A) across diverse coppice and high stands dominated by Quercus brantii Lindl. along the latitudinal gradient of Zagros mountains of western Iran. Then, multivariate linear regressions were parametrized with H and A to estimate the diameter at breast height (DBH) of high trees because of its importance to accelerate the existing practical DBH inventories across Zagros Forests. The estimated variables were finally applied to a model tree aboveground biomass (AGB) for both vegetative growth forms by local allometric equations and Random Forest models. In each step, the estimated variables were evaluated against the field reference values, indicating practically high accuracies reaching root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.68 m and 4.74 cm for H and DBH, as well as relative RMSE < 10% for AGB estimates. The results generally suggest an effective framework for single tree-based attribute estimation over mountainous, semi-arid coppice, and high stands.
Wetlands are one of the most important ecosystems due to their critical services to both humans and the environment. Therefore, wetland mapping and monitoring are essential for their conservation. In this regard, remote sensing offers efficient solutions due to the availability of cost-efficient archived images over different spatial scales. However, a lack of sufficient consistent training samples at different times is a significant limitation of multi-temporal wetland monitoring. In this study, a new training sample migration method was developed to identify unchanged training samples to be used in wetland classification and change analyses over the International Shadegan Wetland (ISW) areas of southwestern Iran. To this end, we first produced the wetland map of a reference year (2020), for which we had training samples, by combining Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 images and the Random Forest (RF) classifier in Google Earth Engine (GEE). The Overall Accuracy (OA) and Kappa coefficient (KC) of this reference map were 97.93% and 0.97, respectively. Then, an automatic change detection method was developed to migrate unchanged training samples from the reference year to the target years of 2018, 2019, and 2021. Within the proposed method, three indices of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), and the mean Standard Deviation (SD) of the spectral bands, along with two similarity measures of the Euclidean Distance (ED) and Spectral Angle Distance (SAD), were computed for each pair of reference–target years. The optimum threshold for unchanged samples was also derived using a histogram thresholding approach, which led to selecting the samples that were most likely unchanged based on the highest OA and KC for classifying the test dataset. The proposed migration sample method resulted in high OAs of 95.89%, 96.83%, and 97.06% and KCs of 0.95, 0.96, and 0.96 for the target years of 2018, 2019, and 2021, respectively. Finally, the migrated samples were used to generate the wetland map for the target years. Overall, our proposed method showed high potential for wetland mapping and monitoring when no training samples existed for a target year.
Contemporary climate change leads to earlier spring phenological events in Europe. In forests, in which overstory strongly regulates the microclimate beneath, it is not clear if further change equally shifts the timing of leaf unfolding for the over- and understory of main deciduous forest species, such as Fagus sylvatica L. (European beech). Furthermore, it is not known yet how this vertical phenological (mis)match — the phenological difference between overstory and understory — affects the remotely sensed satellite signal. To investigate this, we disentangled the start of season (SOS) of overstory F.sylvatica foliage from understory F. sylvatica foliage in forests, within nine quadrants of 5.8 × 5.8 km, stratified over a temperature gradient of 2.5 °C in Bavaria, southeast Germany, in the spring seasons of 2019 and 2020 using time lapse cameras and visual ground observations. We explained SOS dates and vertical phenological (mis)match by canopy temperature and compared these to Sentinel-2 derived SOS in response to canopy temperature. We found that overstory SOS advanced with higher mean April canopy temperature (visual ground observations: −2.86 days per °C; cameras: −2.57 days per °C). However, understory SOS was not significantly affected by canopy temperature. This led to an increase of vertical phenological mismatch with increased canopy temperature (visual ground observations: +3.90 days per °C; cameras: +2.52 days per °C). These results matched Sentinel-2-derived SOS responses, as pixels of higher canopy height advanced more by increased canopy temperature than pixels of lower canopy height. The results may indicate that, with further climate change, spring phenology of F. sylvatica overstory will advance more than F. sylvatica understory, leading to increased vertical phenological mismatch in temperate deciduous forests. This may have major ecological effects, but also methodological consequences for the field of remote sensing, as what the signal senses highly depends on the pixel mean canopy height and the vertical (mis)match.
Earth observation time series are well suited to monitor global surface dynamics. However, data products that are aimed at assessing large-area dynamics with a high temporal resolution often face various error sources (e.g., retrieval errors, sampling errors) in their acquisition chain. Addressing uncertainties in a spatiotemporal consistent manner is challenging, as extensive high-quality validation data is typically scarce. Here we propose a new method that utilizes time series inherent information to assess the temporal interpolation uncertainty of time series datasets. For this, we utilized data from the DLR-DFD Global WaterPack (GWP), which provides daily information on global inland surface water. As the time series is primarily based on optical MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) images, the requirement of data gap interpolation due to clouds constitutes the main uncertainty source of the product. With a focus on different temporal and spatial characteristics of surface water dynamics, seven auxiliary layers were derived. Each layer provides probability and reliability estimates regarding water observations at pixel-level. This enables the quantification of uncertainty corresponding to the full spatiotemporal range of the product. Furthermore, the ability of temporal layers to approximate unknown pixel states was evaluated for stratified artificial gaps, which were introduced into the original time series of four climatologic diverse test regions. Results show that uncertainty is quantified accurately (>90%), consequently enhancing the product's quality with respect to its use for modeling and the geoscientific community.
Fresh water is a vital natural resource. Earth observation time-series are well suited to monitor corresponding surface dynamics. The DLR-DFD Global WaterPack (GWP) provides daily information on globally distributed inland surface water based on MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) images at 250 m spatial resolution. Operating on this spatiotemporal level comes with the drawback of moderate spatial resolution; only coarse pixel-based surface water quantification is possible. To enhance the quantitative capabilities of this dataset, we systematically access subpixel information on fractional water coverage. For this, a linear mixture model is employed, using classification probability and pure pixel reference information. Classification probability is derived from relative datapoint (pixel) locations in feature space. Pure water and non-water reference pixels are located by combining spatial and temporal information inherent to the time-series. Subsequently, the model is evaluated for different input sets to determine the optimal configuration for global processing and pixel coverage types. The performance of resulting water fraction estimates is evaluated on the pixel level in 32 regions of interest across the globe, by comparison to higher resolution reference data (Sentinel-2, Landsat 8). Results show that water fraction information is able to improve the product's performance regarding mixed water/non-water pixels by an average of 11.6% (RMSE). With a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.61, the model shows good overall performance. The approach enables the systematic provision of water fraction estimates on a global and daily scale, using only the reflectance and temporal information contained in the input time-series.